Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.2#212
Expected Predictive Rating-3.3#219
Pace66.5#262
Improvement+2.9#29

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#256
First Shot-6.2#334
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#38
Layup/Dunks-7.5#355
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#24
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#281
Freethrows+0.5#143
Improvement+1.5#70

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#156
First Shot+2.4#98
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#310
Layups/Dunks+0.6#152
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#107
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#105
Freethrows-1.6#282
Improvement+1.3#80
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.2% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.4 14.3
.500 or above 13.6% 30.0% 12.3%
.500 or above in Conference 15.2% 23.4% 14.5%
Conference Champion 0.5% 1.1% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 25.2% 17.1% 25.8%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.9% 1.2% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern (Away) - 7.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 61 - 9
Quad 33 - 84 - 16
Quad 48 - 312 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 333 Eastern Illinois W 66-63 83%     1 - 0 -10.6 -11.5 +0.9
  Fri, Nov 7 21 @Kentucky L 59-107 3%     1 - 1 -29.4 -8.2 -18.0
  Wed, Nov 12 258 Nicholls St. W 68-63 69%     2 - 1 -3.4 +0.0 -2.8
  Sun, Nov 16 297 Bryant W 68-50 75%     3 - 1 +7.6 -1.1 +10.6
  Wed, Nov 19 319 @Cleveland St. W 90-75 62%     4 - 1 +8.7 +13.0 -4.2
  Wed, Nov 26 317 Southern Indiana L 56-64 80%     4 - 2 -20.2 -21.1 +0.9
  Sat, Nov 29 242 Western Michigan W 84-55 67%     5 - 2 +21.3 +13.1 +10.5
  Tue, Dec 2 88 @Marquette L 72-75 OT 13%     5 - 3 +5.9 -1.9 +8.1
  Sat, Dec 13 109 UNC Wilmington L 70-73 35%     5 - 4 -2.2 +2.9 -5.4
  Tue, Dec 16 58 @Northwestern L 63-79 7%    
  Sun, Dec 21 100 Murray St. L 74-79 32%    
  Mon, Dec 29 92 @Northern Iowa L 57-69 13%    
  Thu, Jan 1 130 @Southern Illinois L 68-76 22%    
  Sun, Jan 4 190 Illinois-Chicago W 72-70 56%    
  Wed, Jan 7 90 Illinois St. L 67-73 29%    
  Sat, Jan 10 100 @Murray St. L 71-82 16%    
  Tue, Jan 13 85 @Belmont L 68-81 12%    
  Sat, Jan 17 92 Northern Iowa L 60-66 29%    
  Wed, Jan 21 130 Southern Illinois L 71-73 42%    
  Wed, Jan 28 85 Belmont L 71-78 27%    
  Sat, Jan 31 187 @Indiana St. L 70-75 34%    
  Tue, Feb 3 117 @Bradley L 64-73 20%    
  Fri, Feb 6 276 Evansville W 71-65 70%    
  Mon, Feb 9 135 @Drake L 65-73 24%    
  Thu, Feb 12 90 @Illinois St. L 64-76 15%    
  Sun, Feb 15 187 Indiana St. W 73-72 56%    
  Wed, Feb 18 117 Bradley L 67-70 38%    
  Sat, Feb 21 190 @Illinois-Chicago L 69-73 35%    
  Wed, Feb 25 135 Drake L 68-70 43%    
  Sat, Feb 28 276 @Evansville L 67-68 49%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 2.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 3.0 2.8 0.6 0.0 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.0 3.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 10.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.4 4.9 1.5 0.1 14.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.8 7.0 5.6 1.7 0.1 19.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.3 5.5 6.7 4.6 1.2 0.1 20.8 10th
11th 0.3 1.4 3.5 4.8 4.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 16.8 11th
Total 0.3 1.5 3.9 7.2 10.6 12.8 14.4 13.5 11.5 9.1 6.6 4.0 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 70.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-5 54.5% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 29.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 4.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 7.4% 7.4% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.3% 14.3% 14.3% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-6 0.5% 9.7% 9.7% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-7 1.3% 6.9% 6.9% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.2
12-8 2.4% 4.7% 4.7% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.3
11-9 4.0% 3.9% 3.9% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.8
10-10 6.6% 2.2% 2.2% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.4
9-11 9.1% 1.5% 1.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.0
8-12 11.5% 0.6% 0.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 11.5
7-13 13.5% 0.5% 0.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 13.5
6-14 14.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.3
5-15 12.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.8
4-16 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.6
3-17 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.2
2-18 3.9% 3.9
1-19 1.5% 1.5
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%