Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.8 #169
Expected Predictive Rating -0.4 #171
Pace 65.9 #265
Improvement +5.6 #12

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #231 D+ C- B- B F+
Defense #120 C+ B- C C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #344 1.11 #245 -5.4 #341
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #23 0.68 #292 +2.6 #60
Three Pointers 39% #222 1.04 #151 -0.6 #201
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #281 -3.4 #281
Freethrows 0.36 #26 72% #211 0.26 #44
Second Chance 30.0% #205 1.01 #221 0.30 #207
Turnovers 15.2% #100
Total Offense -2.3 #231

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #148 1.23 #283 -2.4 #255
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #97 0.57 #4 +1.2 #101
Three Pointers 37% #284 0.94 #84 +3.3 #57
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #111 +2.2 #115
Freethrows 0.32 #242 71% #129 0.23 #223
Second Chance 31.8% #238 0.87 #17 0.28 #83
Turnovers 16.8% #160
Total Defense +1.5 #120

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.7% #349 -0.4% #132
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.1% #230 -4.0% #104
Possession Length 18.3 #266 17.3 #177
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 #359 0.14 #87
Improvement +3.5 #27 +2.1 #60

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 3.0% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.7 14.3
.500 or above 31.5% 49.9% 23.5%
.500 or above in Conference 37.6% 58.0% 28.7%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.6% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.4% 1.5%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round1.9% 3.0% 1.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Home) - 30.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 61 - 9
Quad 35 - 66 - 15
Quad 48 - 215 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 312 Eastern Illinois W 66 - 63 85% +5  1 - 0 -9 -8 F D+ D -0 D A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 7 27 @Kentucky L 59 - 107 5% -31  1 - 1 -30 -9 F D A- -18 F A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 260 Nicholls St. W 68 - 63 76% +3  2 - 1 -3 -1 D- D A+ -2 C F A+
 Sun, Nov 16 344 Bryant W 68 - 50 90% +4  3 - 1 +3 -3 F C+ B +8 A+ D C+
 Wed, Nov 19 320 @Cleveland St. W 90 - 75 71% +12  4 - 1 +8 +12 B- B- C+ -3 C+ B- F
 Wed, Nov 26 321 Southern Indiana L 56 - 64 86% -6  4 - 2 -21 -20 F C B- -1 C- F+ A-
 Sat, Nov 29 272 Western Michigan W 84 - 55 79% +14  5 - 2 +20 +11 B- A D +11 A+ D- A+
 Tue, Dec 2 94 @Marquette L 72 - 75 OT 18% +2  5 - 3 +6 -3 C+ C F +9 A A A
 Sat, Dec 13 122 UNC Wilmington L 70 - 73 48% +2  5 - 4 -3 +4 F A A- -8 B D- C-
 Tue, Dec 16 61 @Northwestern L 70 - 86 12% -12  5 - 5 -4 +4 B- B F -8 D- C D+
 Sun, Dec 21 101 Murray St. L 79 - 85 39% +2  5 - 6 0 - 1 -4 +2 C+ C C -6 D- A+ C
 Mon, Dec 29 108 @Northern Iowa L 48 - 58 23% -3  5 - 7 0 - 2 -3 -6 F+ F B+ +1 C+ C- B
 Thu, Jan 1 145 @Southern Illinois L 70 - 75 32% -5  5 - 8 0 - 3 -1 -2 F F A- +2 B+ B F
 Sun, Jan 4 136 Illinois-Chicago W 66 - 59 53% -1  6 - 8 1 - 3 +5 +2 D D+ B +4 C+ B- A+
 Wed, Jan 7 89 Illinois St. W 77 - 71 35% +5  7 - 8 2 - 3 +9 +12 A+ F C -3 B+ C D+
 Sat, Jan 10 101 @Murray St. L 79 - 92 20% -6  7 - 9 2 - 4 -5 +2 B D+ F -6 F+ A+ C
 Tue, Jan 13 75 @Belmont L 74 - 78 14% -3  7 - 10 2 - 5 +7 +11 C- A+ C+ -4 C- A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 17 108 Northern Iowa W 54 - 44 43% +2  8 - 10 3 - 5 +11 -3 F B- A+ +16 A+ B- C
 Wed, Jan 21 145 Southern Illinois W 69 - 63 55% +11  9 - 10 4 - 5 +4 +5 B+ D B- -0 B+ B+ C+
 Wed, Jan 28 75 Belmont L 72 - 77 30%
 Sat, Jan 31 195 @Indiana St. L 71 - 73 44%
 Tue, Feb 3 126 @Bradley L 68 - 74 29%
 Fri, Feb 6 270 Evansville W 71 - 63 79%
 Mon, Feb 9 148 @Drake L 66 - 71 34%
 Thu, Feb 12 89 @Illinois St. L 64 - 74 17%
 Sun, Feb 15 195 Indiana St. W 74 - 70 66%
 Wed, Feb 18 126 Bradley W 71 - 70 51%
 Sat, Feb 21 136 @Illinois-Chicago L 66 - 71 31%
 Wed, Feb 25 148 Drake W 69 - 68 56%
 Sat, Feb 28 270 @Evansville W 68 - 66 58%
Totals 14 - 16 9 - 11 -1 -2 D+ C- B- +2 C+ B- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.0 1.0 0.1 3.8 3rd
4th 0.6 3.9 2.5 0.2 7.2 4th
5th 0.3 4.2 5.1 0.6 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.2 3.7 8.4 1.9 0.0 14.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 4.1 11.4 4.5 0.2 20.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 6.3 12.6 6.3 0.4 26.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.5 5.9 2.8 0.2 13.0 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
Total 0.2 1.9 5.8 12.9 19.7 21.8 18.1 11.8 5.4 1.9 0.4 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 57.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 27.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.4% 10.3% 10.3% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-7 1.9% 8.2% 8.2% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.7
12-8 5.4% 6.2% 6.2% 13.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.0
11-9 11.8% 3.9% 3.9% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 11.3
10-10 18.1% 2.2% 2.2% 14.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 17.7
9-11 21.8% 1.3% 1.3% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 21.5
8-12 19.7% 0.8% 0.8% 15.5 0.1 0.1 19.6
7-13 12.9% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 12.8
6-14 5.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.8
5-15 1.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.9
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 14.0 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%