Drake
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +0.7 #148
Expected Predictive Rating -0.3 #167
Pace 66.7 #239
Improvement +1.2 #125

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #176 C+ D+ B C C-
Defense #131 C B D+ C B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #325 1.22 #112 -2.6 #272
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #163 0.82 #86 +0.9 #126
Three Pointers 46% #78 1.02 #187 +2.7 #96
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #144 +1.1 #143
Freethrows 0.30 #192 70% #256 0.21 #209
Second Chance 25.0% #325 1.10 #108 0.27 #269
Turnovers 14.5% #72
Total Offense -0.4 #176

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #331 1.23 #282 +2.8 #89
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #151 0.65 #33 +0.7 #142
Three Pointers 47% #35 1.02 #180 -3.0 #304
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #162 +0.5 #163
Freethrows 0.31 #202 69% #48 0.21 #161
Second Chance 29.0% #115 0.92 #36 0.27 #58
Turnovers 15.1% #269
Total Defense +1.1 #131

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.0% #255 -1.2% #78
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.2% #124 0.1% #185
Possession Length 17.9 #236 17.1 #131
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #248 0.17 #176
Improvement -1.1 #240 +2.3 #56

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 3.9% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.5 14.3
.500 or above 40.3% 45.0% 18.2%
.500 or above in Conference 58.4% 64.1% 31.8%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.6% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.6%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round3.7% 3.9% 2.5%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Evansville (Home) - 82.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 51 - 6
Quad 37 - 78 - 13
Quad 46 - 315 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 313 Northern Arizona W 77 - 71 82% +0  1 - 0 -3 -1 C+ F B -2 C+ A- F
 Thu, Nov 6 208 Robert Morris L 79 - 81 OT 74% -2  1 - 1 -8 -3 F D A+ -5 D- B- A
 Fri, Nov 14 264 SIU Edwardsville L 59 - 61 81% -5  1 - 2 -11 -6 D- B B -5 D A D
 Mon, Nov 17 162 @College of Charleston W 71 - 62 41% +5  2 - 2 +12 +1 C+ D- F +11 A- A C
 Fri, Nov 28 41 LSU L 62 - 71 14% -9  2 - 3 +3 -5 D F+ A+ +8 B- A+ F+
 Sat, Nov 29 113 Georgia Tech W 84 - 74 39% +5  3 - 3 +13 +21 A- A+ A+ -7 C B- F
 Tue, Dec 2 360 Western Illinois W 108 - 57 95% +26  4 - 3 +33 +39 A+ A+ C+ -1 C A F+
 Fri, Dec 5 118 UAB L 69 - 74 53% -2  4 - 4 -5 -2 D- C- A -3 C+ C- A-
 Sat, Dec 13 134 North Dakota St. L 94 - 99 59% -9  4 - 5 -6 +17 A+ F C -23 F D+ F
 Thu, Dec 18 101 @Murray St. L 72 - 81 24% -5  4 - 6 0 - 1 -1 +3 D+ C+ C- -5 A D+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 270 @Evansville W 66 - 65 65% +2  5 - 6 1 - 1 -2 -0 C D+ D+ -2 A- F+ C-
 Mon, Dec 29 89 Illinois St. L 56 - 73 41% -8  5 - 7 1 - 2 -14 -12 F C- B+ -3 F A+ A+
 Sun, Jan 4 195 Indiana St. W 74 - 72 72% -0  6 - 7 2 - 2 -3 +7 A C C+ -10 C+ F A-
 Wed, Jan 7 126 @Bradley L 66 - 93 34% -20  6 - 8 2 - 3 -22 -9 D F C+ -12 F C- D
 Sat, Jan 10 75 Belmont L 76 - 78 35% +11  6 - 9 2 - 4 +3 +1 A+ F F +2 A+ D- C+
 Wed, Jan 14 145 @Southern Illinois W 76 - 73 OT 38% -4  7 - 9 3 - 4 +7 -1 D- B- C +7 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 136 @Illinois-Chicago L 67 - 74 36% -7  7 - 10 3 - 5 -3 +1 C F A+ -4 B C- D-
 Wed, Jan 21 101 Murray St. W 101 - 90 45% +5  8 - 10 4 - 5 +13 +11 C+ A+ A+ +0 C+ A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 24 195 @Indiana St. W 76 - 62 50% +5  9 - 10 5 - 5 +15 +1 C- F B +13 B A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 28 270 Evansville W 74 - 64 82%
 Sat, Jan 31 126 Bradley W 74 - 72 57%
 Tue, Feb 3 75 @Belmont L 71 - 81 18%
 Fri, Feb 6 89 @Illinois St. L 67 - 75 21%
 Mon, Feb 9 169 Valparaiso W 71 - 66 66%
 Thu, Feb 12 136 Illinois-Chicago W 71 - 69 59%
 Sun, Feb 15 108 @Northern Iowa L 60 - 66 28%
 Wed, Feb 18 145 Southern Illinois W 73 - 70 60%
 Wed, Feb 25 169 @Valparaiso L 68 - 69 44%
 Sun, Mar 1 108 Northern Iowa L 62 - 63 49%
Totals 14 - 15 10 - 10 +1 +0 C+ D+ B +1 C B D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.6 0.0 2.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 4.2 2.0 0.1 7.5 3rd
4th 0.8 6.6 4.6 0.4 12.4 4th
5th 0.3 5.9 8.3 0.9 15.5 5th
6th 0.2 4.0 11.1 2.9 0.1 18.2 6th
7th 0.2 3.4 11.2 5.6 0.2 20.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.6 7.5 5.2 0.3 15.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 3.0 2.2 0.2 6.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.2 1.5 5.9 13.2 20.8 23.6 19.2 10.5 4.0 1.0 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 66.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 30.2% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.1% 12.5% 12.5% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 1.0% 14.6% 14.6% 12.3 0.1 0.0 0.9
13-7 4.0% 9.6% 9.6% 12.7 0.2 0.2 0.0 3.6
12-8 10.5% 7.8% 7.8% 13.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 9.6
11-9 19.2% 5.2% 5.2% 13.6 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 18.2
10-10 23.6% 3.2% 3.2% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 22.9
9-11 20.8% 1.7% 1.7% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 20.5
8-12 13.2% 1.0% 1.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 13.1
7-13 5.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.8
6-14 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.5
5-15 0.2% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 13.6 96.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%