Evansville
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.0#276
Expected Predictive Rating-7.0#270
Pace67.7#228
Improvement+0.2#176

Offense
Total Offense-4.9#301
First Shot-3.5#276
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#268
Layup/Dunks-1.1#224
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#114
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#304
Freethrows+0.6#137
Improvement-0.9#250

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#206
First Shot-2.3#251
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#112
Layups/Dunks+5.5#29
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#353
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#335
Freethrows+0.7#134
Improvement+1.0#108
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.3 15.8
.500 or above 0.4% 1.3% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 4.1% 10.7% 2.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 52.9% 35.0% 56.9%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Home) - 18.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 61 - 9
Quad 33 - 104 - 20
Quad 43 - 47 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 7 @Purdue L 51-82 1%     0 - 1 -7.5 -6.2 -5.5
  Wed, Nov 12 154 Middle Tennessee L 72-77 38%     0 - 2 -7.8 -3.7 -4.1
  Tue, Nov 18 177 Texas Arlington L 76-84 43%     0 - 3 -12.1 +5.1 -17.4
  Fri, Nov 21 157 Oregon St. W 73-69 28%     1 - 3 +4.1 +2.8 +1.5
  Sun, Nov 23 65 Akron L 59-97 10%     1 - 4 -29.6 -14.8 -14.8
  Mon, Nov 24 172 College of Charleston L 59-78 31%     1 - 5 -20.0 -15.4 -4.5
  Wed, Dec 3 308 Ball St. W 64-52 70%     2 - 5 +0.7 -10.6 +11.8
  Sat, Dec 6 145 @Western Kentucky L 79-80 18%     2 - 6 +2.8 +5.3 -2.4
  Sat, Dec 13 55 @Notre Dame L 58-82 5%     2 - 7 -11.4 -5.8 -6.8
  Tue, Dec 16 85 Belmont L 70-80 18%    
  Sun, Dec 21 135 Drake L 67-72 33%    
  Mon, Dec 29 117 @Bradley L 63-75 12%    
  Thu, Jan 1 90 @Illinois St. L 63-78 8%    
  Sun, Jan 4 92 Northern Iowa L 59-68 21%    
  Wed, Jan 7 100 Murray St. L 74-82 23%    
  Sat, Jan 10 187 @Indiana St. L 70-77 25%    
  Tue, Jan 13 117 Bradley L 66-72 29%    
  Tue, Jan 20 190 @Illinois-Chicago L 68-75 25%    
  Sun, Jan 25 130 Southern Illinois L 70-75 33%    
  Wed, Jan 28 135 @Drake L 64-75 17%    
  Sat, Jan 31 92 @Northern Iowa L 56-71 9%    
  Tue, Feb 3 187 Indiana St. L 73-74 45%    
  Fri, Feb 6 212 @Valparaiso L 65-71 30%    
  Mon, Feb 9 90 Illinois St. L 66-75 22%    
  Thu, Feb 12 130 @Southern Illinois L 67-78 16%    
  Wed, Feb 18 190 Illinois-Chicago L 71-72 46%    
  Sat, Feb 21 100 @Murray St. L 71-85 10%    
  Wed, Feb 25 85 @Belmont L 67-83 8%    
  Sat, Feb 28 212 Valparaiso W 68-67 51%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 1.3 0.9 0.1 2.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 2.4 1.6 0.4 0.0 5.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.6 2.5 0.5 0.0 8.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 3.7 5.4 3.8 0.8 0.1 14.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.2 6.9 8.0 4.4 1.0 0.1 24.3 10th
11th 1.6 5.5 9.7 11.3 8.4 3.6 0.7 0.1 40.9 11th
Total 1.6 5.5 10.5 14.5 16.3 15.7 12.4 9.4 6.3 3.9 2.2 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 66.7% 0.0    0.0
15-5 50.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 19.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 5.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.7% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.1% 14.3% 14.3% 13.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.2% 2.9% 2.9% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-8 0.5% 2.2% 2.2% 15.0 0.0 0.4
11-9 1.0% 1.9% 1.9% 15.2 0.0 0.0 1.0
10-10 2.2% 1.5% 1.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 2.2
9-11 3.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.9
8-12 6.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.3
7-13 9.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.4
6-14 12.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.3
5-15 15.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.6
4-16 16.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.3
3-17 14.5% 14.5
2-18 10.5% 10.5
1-19 5.5% 5.5
0-20 1.6% 1.6
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.4%