Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.0 #108
Expected Predictive Rating +3.1 #119
Pace 59.3 #365
Improvement -4.5 #340

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #246 C+ D- B+ D- B-
Defense #32 B+ A- C+ B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #67 1.21 #115 +3.8 #63
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #252 0.78 #136 -1.2 #241
Three Pointers 40% #193 0.97 #246 -1.4 #230
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #141 +1.2 #140
Freethrows 0.25 #316 66% #337 0.17 #342
Second Chance 21.3% #356 1.01 #220 0.22 #352
Turnovers 13.8% #35
Total Offense -2.7 #246

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #194 1.13 #142 +0.6 #149
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #181 0.68 #65 +0.7 #140
Three Pointers 41% #189 0.80 #5 +4.4 #33
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #33 +5.8 #33
Freethrows 0.26 #56 71% #120 0.18 #55
Second Chance 24.5% #19 0.93 #46 0.23 #14
Turnovers 17.1% #136
Total Defense +6.7 #32

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.6% #80 0.0% #163
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.8% #162 -11.4% #25
Possession Length 19.0 #329 18.4 #322
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #353 0.13 #53
Improvement -1.9 #280 -2.6 #322

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.7% 11.1% 8.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.3 12.6
.500 or above 95.2% 98.5% 91.9%
.500 or above in Conference 77.8% 89.4% 66.0%
Conference Champion 1.9% 3.2% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round9.7% 11.1% 8.2%
Second Round1.0% 1.2% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Away) - 50.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 52 - 6
Quad 38 - 610 - 13
Quad 49 - 119 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 217 Cal St. Northridge W 86 - 57 83% +17  1 - 0 +23 +8 B+ D+ B- +14 A+ A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 171 South Dakota St. W 65 - 58 77% +4  2 - 0 +3 -4 B F C- +8 B- C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 159 Furman W 70 - 54 74% +10  3 - 0 +13 +3 B F A- +12 A+ A C+
 Tue, Nov 18 310 Northern Illinois W 70 - 57 92% +3  4 - 0 +1 +2 A- F F +1 C- A+ B-
 Sat, Nov 22 119 @UC Irvine W 70 - 69 OT 43% +3  5 - 0 +7 +3 B- F A+ +4 B+ D+ F+
 Tue, Nov 25 281 Loyola Chicago W 72 - 51 85% +18  6 - 0 +14 +5 C+ F+ A+ +12 A+ C C-
 Wed, Nov 26 73 Tulsa L 60 - 63 36% -3  6 - 1 +5 -7 D- D B +11 A- A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 100 Wichita St. L 69 - 74 OT 57% -2  6 - 2 -3 -4 C+ F A +1 D A A
 Sat, Dec 13 135 Oakland W 75 - 63 71% +5  7 - 2 +10 -6 D+ F A +16 B+ A A+
 Wed, Dec 17 136 @Illinois-Chicago W 60 - 54 49% +2  8 - 2 1 - 0 +10 -1 A- F F +12 A+ B+ D
 Mon, Dec 22 42 @St. Mary's L 58 - 63 15% +2  8 - 3 +10 +0 B- D B +9 A+ D- B-
 Mon, Dec 29 169 Valparaiso W 58 - 48 77% +3  9 - 3 2 - 0 +6 -2 C+ D+ C +11 A+ A+ D+
 Thu, Jan 1 195 Indiana St. W 75 - 66 81% +1  10 - 3 3 - 0 +4 +6 B B C+ -2 D- A+ D+
 Sun, Jan 4 270 @Evansville W 62 - 48 75% +12  11 - 3 4 - 0 +11 -3 B+ F F +15 B A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 7 75 Belmont L 65 - 78 47% -8  11 - 4 4 - 1 -8 +6 C+ D A+ -17 F B- F
 Sat, Jan 10 126 @Bradley L 69 - 75 46% -2  11 - 5 4 - 2 -1 +1 D+ D A+ -3 C B F
 Tue, Jan 13 136 Illinois-Chicago L 61 - 69 71% -0  11 - 6 4 - 3 -10 -4 F C+ B+ -6 D- A F
 Sat, Jan 17 169 @Valparaiso L 44 - 54 57% -2  11 - 7 4 - 4 -8 -17 F F+ B+ +8 A+ C+ D-
 Wed, Jan 21 89 @Illinois St. L 54 - 59 31% -5  11 - 8 4 - 5 +4 -9 F C- B+ +13 A+ C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 101 Murray St. W 81 - 76 57% +4  12 - 8 5 - 5 +7 +10 A+ F+ A- -3 A+ D D+
 Wed, Jan 28 145 @Southern Illinois W 64 - 63 50%
 Sat, Jan 31 270 Evansville W 68 - 55 89%
 Fri, Feb 6 126 Bradley W 67 - 62 68%
 Mon, Feb 9 101 @Murray St. L 69 - 73 35%
 Thu, Feb 12 75 @Belmont L 64 - 71 27%
 Sun, Feb 15 148 Drake W 66 - 60 72%
 Wed, Feb 18 195 @Indiana St. W 67 - 64 61%
 Sat, Feb 21 145 Southern Illinois W 66 - 60 71%
 Wed, Feb 25 89 Illinois St. W 63 - 62 53%
 Sun, Mar 1 148 @Drake W 63 - 62 51%
Totals 18 - 12 11 - 9 +4 -3 C+ D- B+ +7 B+ A- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.5 1.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.0 2.2 0.1 7.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 7.6 5.5 0.4 14.9 3rd
4th 0.8 8.0 8.4 0.9 0.0 18.1 4th
5th 0.4 6.0 10.3 1.9 0.0 18.6 5th
6th 0.1 3.6 9.9 3.3 0.1 17.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 2.0 7.2 3.7 0.2 13.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.3 2.4 0.2 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.1 2.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.8 6.3 13.7 20.6 23.1 19.0 10.7 3.7 0.6 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 77.0% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
14-6 29.1% 1.1    0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0
13-7 2.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.9% 1.9 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.6% 27.8% 27.8% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5
14-6 3.7% 19.1% 19.1% 11.9 0.2 0.5 0.1 3.0
13-7 10.7% 16.6% 16.6% 12.1 0.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 8.9
12-8 19.0% 13.6% 13.6% 12.3 0.1 1.7 0.7 0.1 16.4
11-9 23.1% 10.3% 10.3% 12.6 0.0 1.1 1.2 0.1 20.7
10-10 20.6% 6.3% 6.3% 12.7 0.5 0.7 0.1 19.3
9-11 13.7% 3.7% 3.7% 13.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 13.2
8-12 6.3% 2.8% 2.8% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.1
7-13 1.8% 2.5% 2.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 1.8
6-14 0.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 12.4 90.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.4 5.7 48.6 45.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%