Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.7#92
Expected Predictive Rating+6.2#94
Pace61.9#353
Improvement-0.7#221

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#189
First Shot+3.2#93
After Offensive Rebound-4.1#353
Layup/Dunks+5.3#35
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#173
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#223
Freethrows-0.9#240
Improvement-1.5#298

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#28
First Shot+4.0#51
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#30
Layups/Dunks+0.1#166
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#260
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#90
Freethrows+2.3#58
Improvement+0.8#120
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.6% 20.5% 14.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.9 11.8 12.1
.500 or above 96.0% 98.2% 91.8%
.500 or above in Conference 88.4% 93.1% 79.2%
Conference Champion 24.3% 29.7% 13.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 1.1%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round18.4% 20.4% 14.7%
Second Round3.5% 4.1% 2.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.8% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois-Chicago (Away) - 66.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 23 - 43 - 5
Quad 39 - 512 - 10
Quad 410 - 121 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 222 Cal St. Northridge W 86-57 87%     1 - 0 +22.4 +6.8 +14.8
  Sun, Nov 9 158 South Dakota St. W 65-58 79%     2 - 0 +4.1 -1.6 +6.4
  Fri, Nov 14 148 Furman W 70-54 78%     3 - 0 +13.7 +1.4 +13.8
  Tue, Nov 18 326 Northern Illinois W 70-57 95%     4 - 0 +0.2 -1.0 +2.9
  Sat, Nov 22 122 @UC Irvine W 70-69 OT 49%     5 - 0 +6.9 +4.2 +2.8
  Tue, Nov 25 263 Loyola Chicago W 72-51 85%     6 - 0 +15.5 +5.0 +13.3
  Wed, Nov 26 83 Tulsa L 60-63 44%     6 - 1 +4.1 -5.6 +9.4
  Sat, Dec 6 98 Wichita St. L 69-74 OT 64%     6 - 2 -3.0 -3.1 +0.2
  Sat, Dec 13 149 Oakland W 75-63 78%     7 - 2 +9.7 -6.0 +15.2
  Wed, Dec 17 190 @Illinois-Chicago W 69-64 66%    
  Mon, Dec 22 38 @St. Mary's L 58-68 19%    
  Mon, Dec 29 212 Valparaiso W 69-57 87%    
  Thu, Jan 1 187 Indiana St. W 73-63 83%    
  Sun, Jan 4 276 @Evansville W 68-59 79%    
  Wed, Jan 7 85 Belmont W 71-69 58%    
  Sat, Jan 10 117 @Bradley L 64-65 48%    
  Tue, Jan 13 190 Illinois-Chicago W 72-61 83%    
  Sat, Jan 17 212 @Valparaiso W 66-60 71%    
  Wed, Jan 21 90 @Illinois St. L 64-67 39%    
  Sat, Jan 24 100 Murray St. W 74-70 63%    
  Wed, Jan 28 130 @Southern Illinois W 68-67 52%    
  Sat, Jan 31 276 Evansville W 71-56 91%    
  Fri, Feb 6 117 Bradley W 67-62 69%    
  Mon, Feb 9 100 @Murray St. L 71-73 42%    
  Thu, Feb 12 85 @Belmont L 68-72 36%    
  Sun, Feb 15 135 Drake W 68-61 73%    
  Wed, Feb 18 187 @Indiana St. W 70-66 66%    
  Sat, Feb 21 130 Southern Illinois W 71-64 72%    
  Wed, Feb 25 90 Illinois St. W 67-64 60%    
  Sun, Mar 1 135 @Drake W 65-64 54%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.6 5.6 6.9 5.1 2.5 1.0 0.2 24.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 3.9 6.7 5.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 19.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.9 6.4 3.8 0.8 0.1 15.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.5 5.5 2.6 0.5 0.0 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.7 2.2 0.3 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.5 1.6 0.2 0.0 7.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.2 1.0 0.2 4.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.8 0.1 3.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.2 5.3 7.8 10.7 12.5 13.7 13.5 11.9 9.1 5.4 2.6 1.0 0.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0
18-2 98.6% 2.5    2.4 0.1
17-3 94.1% 5.1    4.3 0.7 0.0
16-4 75.5% 6.9    4.7 2.0 0.2
15-5 47.2% 5.6    2.5 2.4 0.6 0.0
14-6 19.0% 2.6    0.7 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.5% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 24.3% 24.3 15.8 6.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 66.7% 41.2% 25.5% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 43.3%
19-1 1.0% 55.5% 46.2% 9.3% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 17.3%
18-2 2.6% 41.8% 38.2% 3.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.2 1.5 5.9%
17-3 5.4% 37.7% 37.0% 0.6% 11.4 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.8 0.0 3.4 1.0%
16-4 9.1% 31.7% 31.6% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 1.1 1.6 0.1 6.2 0.1%
15-5 11.9% 26.2% 26.1% 0.1% 11.8 0.8 2.1 0.2 8.8 0.1%
14-6 13.5% 22.0% 22.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.4 2.1 0.5 0.0 10.6 0.0%
13-7 13.7% 16.8% 16.8% 12.2 0.2 1.5 0.6 0.0 11.4
12-8 12.5% 13.4% 13.4% 12.4 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 10.8
11-9 10.7% 8.8% 8.8% 12.6 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 9.8
10-10 7.8% 7.1% 7.1% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 7.3
9-11 5.3% 3.9% 3.9% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.1
8-12 3.2% 2.2% 2.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1
7-13 1.7% 1.4% 1.4% 15.0 0.0 1.7
6-14 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9
5-15 0.4% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-16 0.1% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 18.6% 18.3% 0.3% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 4.8 10.0 2.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 81.4 0.3%