Belmont
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.6 #75
Expected Predictive Rating +9.4 #65
Pace 73.3 #67
Improvement -0.1 #182

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #66 A C+ D+ C- A-
Defense #108 B- C B- B- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #43 1.32 #30 +7.1 #11
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% #345 0.75 #189 -3.7 #343
Three Pointers 45% #110 1.22 #8 +6.3 #24
1st FG Attempt 1.21 #4 +9.7 #4
Freethrows 0.30 #185 68% #304 0.21 #216
Second Chance 29.0% #228 1.18 #41 0.34 #128
Turnovers 18.1% #285
Total Offense +5.3 #66

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 27% #359 1.01 #25 +8.8 #4
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #249 0.63 #19 +2.0 #42
Three Pointers 55% #2 1.01 #176 -7.1 #359
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #65 +3.8 #66
Freethrows 0.26 #57 75% #299 0.19 #82
Second Chance 31.9% #243 1.02 #142 0.33 #201
Turnovers 17.9% #84
Total Defense +2.3 #108

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.4% #14 -1.0% #90
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 15.1% #13 -6.5% #67
Possession Length 15.7 #43 18.4 #324
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #240 0.14 #73
Improvement +2.0 #80 -2.1 #304

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.6% 33.4% 27.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.8% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.6 11.5 11.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 68.7% 75.8% 52.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
First Round31.4% 33.1% 27.4%
Second Round5.9% 6.4% 4.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.2% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Valparaiso (Away) - 69.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 24 - 24 - 2
Quad 312 - 417 - 6
Quad 49 - 126 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 347 Air Force W 79 - 63 97% +4  1 - 0 +1 +6 B- F A- -4 F D A+
 Sat, Nov 8 226 Tennessee St. W 87 - 79 90% +6  2 - 0 +1 -2 C+ F+ D- +2 B+ C C
 Sat, Nov 15 332 @Oral Roberts W 83 - 60 92% +6  3 - 0 +15 +1 A- A F +13 A+ B C-
 Wed, Nov 19 167 Lipscomb W 75 - 68 85% +7  4 - 0 +3 -6 C B- F +9 A+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 355 St. Francis (PA) W 94 - 57 97% +16  5 - 0 +23 +13 A+ C- C +10 A B- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 165 Toledo W 87 - 72 78% +3  6 - 0 +15 +9 A+ A+ F +5 B- C+ B-
 Sun, Nov 30 162 @College of Charleston W 96 - 73 67% +19  7 - 0 +26 +24 A+ D A +2 A+ D- F
 Wed, Dec 3 121 Richmond L 76 - 84 77% +0  7 - 1 -8 -2 C+ B F+ -6 F A+ B-
 Sun, Dec 7 144 @Middle Tennessee W 83 - 62 63% +8  8 - 1 +25 +13 A+ C+ A- +12 A+ D+ F+
 Sat, Dec 13 136 Illinois-Chicago W 87 - 84 81% -3  9 - 1 1 - 0 +1 +23 A+ C+ D -21 F+ C- F
 Tue, Dec 16 270 @Evansville W 83 - 78 84% +7  10 - 1 2 - 0 +2 +5 C+ D- C- -4 C B- D-
 Fri, Dec 19 119 @UC Irvine W 84 - 58 57% +8  11 - 1 +32 +19 A+ C+ F +13 A A+ F+
 Mon, Dec 29 195 @Indiana St. L 80 - 81 OT 74% +2  11 - 2 2 - 1 -0 +2 C+ C- F -2 C- C- C
 Thu, Jan 1 126 Bradley W 88 - 78 79% +3  12 - 2 3 - 1 +9 +15 A A+ D- -6 D D+ A+
 Sun, Jan 4 145 Southern Illinois L 67 - 68 82% -0  12 - 3 3 - 2 -3 -3 A+ D F +0 C B- A+
 Wed, Jan 7 108 @Northern Iowa W 78 - 65 53% +8  13 - 3 4 - 2 +20 +29 A+ B A+ -6 B- C- F
 Sat, Jan 10 148 @Drake W 78 - 76 65% -11  14 - 3 5 - 2 +6 +5 D- A F+ +1 F+ A- A+
 Tue, Jan 13 169 Valparaiso W 78 - 74 86% +3  15 - 3 6 - 2 +0 +11 A+ F+ B+ -11 B- F B-
 Sat, Jan 17 145 @Southern Illinois W 73 - 68 64% +2  16 - 3 7 - 2 +9 +6 C- B- A +3 A- B C+
 Sat, Jan 24 89 Illinois St. W 80 - 69 67% +6  17 - 3 8 - 2 +14 +9 A+ C- F+ +5 A+ D- A-
 Wed, Jan 28 169 @Valparaiso W 77 - 72 70%
 Sat, Jan 31 101 Murray St. W 90 - 84 70%
 Tue, Feb 3 148 Drake W 81 - 71 82%
 Fri, Feb 6 136 @Illinois-Chicago W 77 - 74 63%
 Mon, Feb 9 126 @Bradley W 80 - 77 60%
 Thu, Feb 12 108 Northern Iowa W 71 - 64 73%
 Sun, Feb 15 101 @Murray St. L 86 - 87 48%
 Sat, Feb 21 195 Indiana St. W 86 - 73 89%
 Wed, Feb 25 270 Evansville W 83 - 66 94%
 Sun, Mar 1 89 @Illinois St. L 76 - 77 45%
Totals 24 - 6 15 - 5 +8 +5 A C+ D+ +2 B- C B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 9.6 21.2 21.3 12.1 3.3 68.7 1st
2nd 0.6 5.8 9.9 3.9 0.5 20.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 3.7 0.7 0.0 6.6 3rd
4th 0.5 1.7 0.4 2.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.8 11.1 20.3 25.2 21.9 12.1 3.3 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 3.3    3.3
17-3 100.0% 12.1    12.0 0.1
16-4 97.7% 21.3    19.3 2.0
15-5 84.3% 21.2    13.6 7.2 0.4
14-6 47.5% 9.6    2.8 4.7 2.0 0.2
13-7 10.2% 1.1    0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.1
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 68.7% 68.7 51.1 14.2 2.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 3.3% 48.4% 43.2% 5.2% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.1 1.7 9.1%
17-3 12.1% 39.7% 38.5% 1.2% 11.3 0.1 3.4 1.3 0.0 7.3 1.9%
16-4 21.9% 36.8% 36.6% 0.3% 11.5 0.0 4.1 3.8 0.0 13.8 0.4%
15-5 25.2% 31.1% 31.0% 0.1% 11.7 2.6 5.1 0.1 17.3 0.1%
14-6 20.3% 27.9% 27.9% 11.8 1.3 4.1 0.3 14.6
13-7 11.1% 23.5% 23.5% 12.0 0.3 2.1 0.2 0.0 8.5
12-8 4.8% 18.9% 18.9% 12.2 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.9
11-9 1.2% 10.9% 10.9% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1
10-10 0.2% 10.6% 10.6% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.2
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 31.6% 31.2% 0.4% 11.6 68.4 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 10.6 0.7 2.5 9.5 17.9 66.3 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7% 12.1% 11.0 0.8 10.6 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 7.6% 10.8 1.4 6.3