Belmont
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.6#85
Expected Predictive Rating+9.5#65
Pace75.2#46
Improvement+0.3#168

Offense
Total Offense+4.3#74
First Shot+4.5#68
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#188
Layup/Dunks+1.5#121
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#258
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.9#23
Freethrows-2.6#315
Improvement+2.7#25

Defense
Total Defense+2.3#103
First Shot+1.8#113
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#153
Layups/Dunks+7.6#15
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#316
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#317
Freethrows+0.4#153
Improvement-2.4#333
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.3% 24.5% 17.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 0.9% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.7 11.6 12.0
.500 or above 99.4% 99.6% 98.3%
.500 or above in Conference 93.5% 95.4% 84.8%
Conference Champion 33.3% 36.5% 18.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
First Round23.0% 24.2% 17.8%
Second Round4.9% 5.3% 3.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.1% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Evansville (Away) - 81.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 23 - 33 - 4
Quad 311 - 413 - 8
Quad 410 - 124 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 324 Air Force W 79-63 95%     1 - 0 +3.3 +6.1 -1.9
  Sat, Nov 8 236 Tennessee St. W 87-79 89%     2 - 0 +0.9 +2.0 -2.2
  Sat, Nov 15 300 @Oral Roberts W 83-60 85%     3 - 0 +18.2 +0.6 +16.1
  Wed, Nov 19 142 Lipscomb W 75-68 79%     4 - 0 +5.1 -5.1 +9.6
  Mon, Nov 24 363 St. Francis (PA) W 94-57 97%     5 - 0 +21.9 +13.5 +7.4
  Wed, Nov 26 167 Toledo W 87-72 76%     6 - 0 +14.3 +9.1 +5.0
  Sun, Nov 30 172 @College of Charleston W 96-73 67%     7 - 0 +25.0 +22.4 +2.4
  Wed, Dec 3 102 Richmond L 76-84 68%     7 - 1 -6.3 +0.1 -6.0
  Sun, Dec 7 154 @Middle Tennessee W 83-62 63%     8 - 1 +24.2 +11.1 +13.0
  Sat, Dec 13 190 Illinois-Chicago W 87-84 86%     9 - 1 1 - 0 -1.9 +19.5 -21.0
  Tue, Dec 16 276 @Evansville W 80-70 82%    
  Fri, Dec 19 122 @UC Irvine W 74-73 52%    
  Mon, Dec 29 187 @Indiana St. W 83-78 68%    
  Thu, Jan 1 117 Bradley W 79-73 72%    
  Sun, Jan 4 130 Southern Illinois W 83-75 76%    
  Wed, Jan 7 92 @Northern Iowa L 69-71 42%    
  Sat, Jan 10 135 @Drake W 77-75 57%    
  Tue, Jan 13 212 Valparaiso W 81-68 88%    
  Sat, Jan 17 130 @Southern Illinois W 80-78 55%    
  Sun, Jan 25 90 Illinois St. W 79-75 64%    
  Wed, Jan 28 212 @Valparaiso W 78-71 73%    
  Sat, Jan 31 100 Murray St. W 88-83 67%    
  Tue, Feb 3 135 Drake W 80-72 77%    
  Fri, Feb 6 190 @Illinois-Chicago W 81-76 69%    
  Mon, Feb 9 117 @Bradley W 76-75 51%    
  Thu, Feb 12 92 Northern Iowa W 72-68 64%    
  Sun, Feb 15 100 @Murray St. L 85-86 45%    
  Sat, Feb 21 187 Indiana St. W 86-75 84%    
  Wed, Feb 25 276 Evansville W 83-67 92%    
  Sun, Mar 1 90 @Illinois St. L 76-78 42%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.1 6.9 8.9 7.4 4.3 1.6 0.3 33.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.1 7.4 6.0 2.7 0.5 0.1 21.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.7 6.3 4.0 0.9 0.1 15.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.8 2.6 0.4 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.5 1.9 0.2 0.0 7.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 2.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.8 0.1 3.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.5 5.4 8.2 11.4 13.8 14.9 13.8 11.7 8.0 4.4 1.6 0.3 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.6    1.6
18-2 98.8% 4.3    4.1 0.2
17-3 93.4% 7.4    6.6 0.8 0.0
16-4 76.6% 8.9    6.3 2.4 0.2
15-5 49.8% 6.9    3.4 2.7 0.7 0.1
14-6 20.9% 3.1    0.8 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-7 4.5% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 33.3% 33.3 23.2 7.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 80.6% 61.3% 19.4% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 50.0%
19-1 1.6% 58.8% 49.6% 9.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.7 18.4%
18-2 4.4% 48.4% 45.1% 3.4% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.3 6.1%
17-3 8.0% 38.8% 37.0% 1.7% 11.3 0.0 0.1 1.9 1.1 0.0 4.9 2.7%
16-4 11.7% 31.9% 31.5% 0.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 1.6 2.0 0.1 7.9 0.6%
15-5 13.8% 28.4% 28.3% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 1.1 2.6 0.3 9.9 0.1%
14-6 14.9% 23.1% 23.1% 12.0 0.0 0.6 2.4 0.4 0.0 11.5
13-7 13.8% 18.5% 18.5% 12.1 0.2 1.7 0.6 0.0 11.2
12-8 11.4% 14.7% 14.7% 12.3 0.0 1.0 0.5 0.0 9.7
11-9 8.2% 10.7% 10.7% 12.6 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 7.4
10-10 5.4% 7.6% 7.6% 12.7 0.2 0.2 0.0 5.0
9-11 3.5% 5.7% 5.7% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.3
8-12 1.8% 3.4% 3.4% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
7-13 0.7% 3.3% 3.3% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.7
6-14 0.3% 0.3
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 23.3% 22.7% 0.6% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 7.3 11.9 2.7 0.3 0.0 76.7 0.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 6.5 7.3 22.0 24.4 22.0 12.2 7.3 4.9