Bradley
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.0 #126
Expected Predictive Rating +2.3 #127
Pace 68.7 #183
Improvement -1.5 #259

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #132 C C- B+ B- C-
Defense #146 C- C+ B+ D+ A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #290 1.22 #107 -1.1 #223
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #138 0.65 #321 -0.4 #197
Three Pointers 43% #145 1.03 #168 +1.3 #137
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #183 -0.3 #184
Freethrows 0.33 #105 75% #103 0.25 #93
Second Chance 26.8% #284 1.09 #119 0.29 #242
Turnovers 13.6% #29
Total Offense +1.4 #132

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #340 1.17 #187 +4.6 #47
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #26 0.77 #193 -2.9 #349
Three Pointers 42% #157 1.14 #325 -2.9 #297
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #218 -1.2 #219
Freethrows 0.33 #282 72% #151 0.24 #277
Second Chance 30.4% #174 0.96 #69 0.29 #105
Turnovers 19.5% #40
Total Defense +0.6 #146

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.0% #258 -3.0% #18
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.5% #168 5.5% #281
Possession Length 16.9 #132 17.3 #178
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #195 0.16 #137
Improvement +2.2 #72 -3.8 #346

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.3% 7.9% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.7 13.0
.500 or above 90.4% 97.0% 85.3%
.500 or above in Conference 84.1% 94.2% 76.4%
Conference Champion 3.5% 6.1% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round6.3% 7.9% 5.1%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drake (Away) - 43.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 62 - 6
Quad 38 - 69 - 12
Quad 49 - 118 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 150 St. Bonaventure L 63 - 69 55% -4  0 - 1 -5 -8 C+ F B +2 B B+ A-
 Sat, Nov 8 304 Central Michigan W 85 - 54 89% +14  1 - 1 +20 +8 A+ F C+ +12 A B+ A-
 Wed, Nov 12 229 Tennessee Martin L 67 - 78 80% +9  1 - 2 -18 -10 F D+ D- -8 F C A+
 Sat, Nov 15 98 @San Francisco L 64 - 75 27% -2  1 - 3 -3 -3 F D+ C -0 F A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 19 317 Umass Lowell W 87 - 77 90% -0  2 - 3 -2 +12 B A- D+ -14 D+ C C-
 Mon, Nov 24 213 Princeton W 88 - 64 69% +8  3 - 3 +21 +15 A+ F B- +6 D+ F+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 114 UC San Diego L 77 - 87 44% -3  3 - 4 -7 +6 C A+ F -13 C+ F D+
 Wed, Nov 26 95 Liberty W 74 - 64 36% +10  4 - 4 +16 +8 B A+ F +8 B B A+
 Tue, Dec 2 138 Washington St. W 64 - 60 64% -3  5 - 4 +2 -11 F C+ A+ +13 B A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 310 Northern Illinois W 84 - 55 89% +14  6 - 4 +17 +4 B D- B+ +12 A+ C- B
 Thu, Dec 18 195 @Indiana St. W 108 - 99 3OT 55% +1  7 - 4 1 - 0 +10 +8 C- C A+ -1 B- A- F+
 Sun, Dec 21 145 Southern Illinois W 73 - 69 65% +4  8 - 4 2 - 0 +2 +1 C C+ F+ +1 B B- C+
 Mon, Dec 29 270 Evansville W 76 - 68 85% -2  9 - 4 3 - 0 -1 +3 D+ F A+ -4 B- D F+
 Thu, Jan 1 75 @Belmont L 78 - 88 21% -3  9 - 5 3 - 1 +1 +9 A C F -9 C F A
 Sun, Jan 4 101 @Murray St. L 66 - 86 28% -14  9 - 6 3 - 2 -12 -5 F C- A+ -7 F B B
 Wed, Jan 7 148 Drake W 93 - 66 66% +20  10 - 6 4 - 2 +25 +14 A C+ A- +9 B A+ A-
 Sat, Jan 10 108 Northern Iowa W 75 - 69 54% +2  11 - 6 5 - 2 +7 +11 B+ C A+ -4 B C F
 Tue, Jan 13 270 @Evansville W 94 - 90 OT 69% -3  12 - 6 6 - 2 +1 +16 B D A+ -15 F C- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 89 @Illinois St. L 62 - 88 25% -13  12 - 7 6 - 3 -17 -3 F D+ C- -16 F+ D D-
 Wed, Jan 21 195 Indiana St. W 75 - 68 75% -3  13 - 7 7 - 3 +2 -1 F C- A+ +3 D A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 136 Illinois-Chicago L 70 - 85 64% -8  13 - 8 7 - 4 -17 +2 C+ D- A+ -20 F B+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 148 @Drake L 72 - 74 43%
 Tue, Feb 3 169 Valparaiso W 74 - 68 71%
 Fri, Feb 6 108 @Northern Iowa L 62 - 67 32%
 Mon, Feb 9 75 Belmont L 77 - 80 40%
 Sun, Feb 15 145 @Southern Illinois L 72 - 74 43%
 Wed, Feb 18 169 @Valparaiso L 70 - 71 49%
 Sat, Feb 21 89 Illinois St. L 72 - 73 46%
 Tue, Feb 24 136 @Illinois-Chicago L 71 - 73 42%
 Sun, Mar 1 101 Murray St. L 82 - 83 50%
Totals 17 - 13 11 - 9 +2 +1 C C- B+ +1 C- C+ B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.0 0.2 3.5 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 4.9 3.4 0.6 0.0 10.1 2nd
3rd 1.5 8.3 6.6 0.8 0.0 17.2 3rd
4th 0.8 8.4 8.7 1.2 0.0 19.1 4th
5th 0.3 5.6 10.1 1.8 0.0 17.8 5th
6th 0.0 2.5 9.4 3.3 0.1 15.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 6.2 3.4 0.2 10.9 7th
8th 0.3 2.3 2.2 0.2 4.9 8th
9th 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.7 4.0 11.2 19.5 23.6 20.0 13.1 6.0 1.7 0.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 94.9% 0.2    0.1 0.0
15-5 62.6% 1.0    0.5 0.5 0.1
14-6 30.0% 1.8    0.2 0.9 0.6 0.1
13-7 3.4% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.5% 3.5 0.9 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.2% 28.2% 28.2% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 1.7% 15.3% 15.3% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.4
14-6 6.0% 15.3% 15.3% 12.4 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 5.1
13-7 13.1% 10.6% 10.6% 12.6 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.1 11.7
12-8 20.0% 8.0% 8.0% 12.8 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 18.4
11-9 23.6% 5.5% 5.5% 13.1 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 22.3
10-10 19.5% 2.9% 2.9% 13.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 18.9
9-11 11.2% 1.8% 1.8% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.0
8-12 4.0% 1.2% 1.2% 14.9 0.0 0.0 4.0
7-13 0.7% 0.7
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 12.8 93.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%