Murray St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.1 #101
Expected Predictive Rating +7.6 #76
Pace 78.4 #14
Improvement -1.5 #258

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #60 B- B- B- B- C+
Defense #204 B- C- C- C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #188 1.22 #110 +1.0 #141
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #220 0.84 #70 -0.2 #182
Three Pointers 44% #132 1.09 #82 +3.0 #85
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #74 +3.7 #74
Freethrows 0.33 #119 76% #58 0.25 #85
Second Chance 32.8% #117 1.12 #89 0.37 #83
Turnovers 14.9% #86
Total Offense +6.0 #60

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #7 1.06 #63 -2.6 #263
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #30 0.76 #170 -2.7 #344
Three Pointers 25% #365 1.03 #214 +7.8 #2
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #97 +2.5 #99
Freethrows 0.28 #130 74% #240 0.21 #143
Second Chance 32.8% #274 1.06 #200 0.35 #251
Turnovers 15.7% #221
Total Defense -0.9 #204

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #152 -0.5% #121
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.7% #75 -4.4% #98
Possession Length 16.0 #52 16.5 #51
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #178 0.18 #220
Improvement +1.0 #131 -2.5 #315

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.0% 20.1% 15.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.0 11.9 12.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.9% 99.0%
Conference Champion 34.8% 44.8% 21.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round18.0% 20.0% 15.2%
Second Round2.3% 2.7% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Home) - 57.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 23 - 44 - 6
Quad 38 - 412 - 10
Quad 411 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 250 Nebraska Omaha W 85 - 77 83% +5  1 - 0 +3 -0 F C+ F+ +2 C B A
 Fri, Nov 7 365 Mississippi Valley W 108 - 60 99% +21  2 - 0 +21 +15 B F A+ +1 B- B- A+
 Tue, Nov 11 36 @SMU L 91 - 102 14% -9  2 - 1 +6 +11 A- A- C -4 B+ D+ C-
 Sat, Nov 15 260 Nicholls St. W 99 - 79 89% +11  3 - 1 +12 +15 A+ A+ F -5 B F A-
 Tue, Nov 18 279 Arkansas Little Rock W 89 - 68 91% +16  4 - 1 +11 +16 C A+ A+ -4 A F C+
 Sun, Nov 23 144 Middle Tennessee L 87 - 90 65% -3  4 - 2 -2 +10 B+ C+ A -11 B- F D
 Mon, Nov 24 83 McNeese St. L 60 - 73 42% -16  4 - 3 -6 -14 F C D- +9 B+ A+ D
 Tue, Nov 25 65 George Washington W 96 - 95 37% +1  5 - 3 +10 +22 A A+ A- -12 C B F
 Tue, Dec 2 299 Morehead St. W 84 - 52 93% +10  6 - 3 +21 +7 D+ B+ D +15 A- A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 6 302 Bellarmine W 81 - 68 93% +13  7 - 3 +2 +2 A- F F +0 C- A C
 Sat, Dec 13 62 Akron W 115 - 100 35% +9  8 - 3 +24 +26 A+ B+ F+ -4 C A+ F
 Thu, Dec 18 148 Drake W 81 - 72 76% +5  9 - 3 1 - 0 +7 +12 D A A+ -5 A- F+ B-
 Sun, Dec 21 169 @Valparaiso W 85 - 79 61% -2  10 - 3 2 - 0 +8 +13 A+ F B- -5 D+ D+ C
 Mon, Dec 29 145 Southern Illinois W 84 - 81 75% +7  11 - 3 3 - 0 +1 +8 A+ F C- -7 B+ F C+
 Thu, Jan 1 136 @Illinois-Chicago W 81 - 77 53% -1  12 - 3 4 - 0 +8 +8 F A+ C+ +1 B C- B
 Sun, Jan 4 126 Bradley W 86 - 66 72% +14  13 - 3 5 - 0 +19 +14 A+ C+ B- +5 A+ C- F
 Wed, Jan 7 270 @Evansville W 79 - 69 78% +4  14 - 3 6 - 0 +7 +6 C- C+ A +0 D A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 169 Valparaiso W 92 - 79 80% +6  15 - 3 7 - 0 +9 +13 A+ D- B -5 D- C A+
 Sat, Jan 17 195 Indiana St. W 85 - 81 83% +5  16 - 3 8 - 0 -1 +8 C+ B+ C -9 B F D+
 Wed, Jan 21 148 @Drake L 90 - 101 55% -5  16 - 4 8 - 1 -7 +7 B- D+ B- -12 C+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 24 108 @Northern Iowa L 76 - 81 43% -4  16 - 5 8 - 2 +2 +16 C A+ A- -14 F C D+
 Wed, Jan 28 89 Illinois St. W 82 - 80 58%
 Sat, Jan 31 75 @Belmont L 84 - 90 30%
 Tue, Feb 3 136 Illinois-Chicago W 84 - 77 74%
 Fri, Feb 6 145 @Southern Illinois W 82 - 81 54%
 Mon, Feb 9 108 Northern Iowa W 73 - 69 65%
 Thu, Feb 12 195 @Indiana St. W 87 - 83 65%
 Sun, Feb 15 75 Belmont W 87 - 86 52%
 Wed, Feb 18 89 @Illinois St. L 79 - 83 35%
 Sat, Feb 21 270 Evansville W 86 - 72 91%
 Sun, Mar 1 126 @Bradley W 83 - 82 50%
Totals 22 - 9 14 - 6 +5 +6 B- B- B- -1 B- C- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 7.2 12.6 9.5 3.9 0.6 34.8 1st
2nd 0.0 1.6 10.9 15.0 5.7 0.7 33.8 2nd
3rd 0.8 6.4 8.0 1.5 0.0 16.7 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 4.6 0.8 0.0 8.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.5 0.9 4.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.7 0.0 1.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 2.1 6.6 13.5 20.7 23.7 18.3 10.2 3.9 0.6 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-3 100.0% 3.9    3.8 0.1
16-4 93.5% 9.5    7.8 1.7
15-5 68.8% 12.6    6.9 5.3 0.4
14-6 30.4% 7.2    1.6 3.5 1.8 0.2
13-7 5.1% 1.1    0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 34.8% 34.8 20.7 10.9 2.7 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.6% 39.5% 34.5% 5.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.4 7.7%
17-3 3.9% 27.2% 26.9% 0.3% 11.4 0.6 0.4 0.0 2.8 0.4%
16-4 10.2% 28.7% 28.6% 0.0% 11.7 1.0 1.9 0.1 7.3 0.1%
15-5 18.3% 23.6% 23.6% 11.9 0.7 3.3 0.3 14.0
14-6 23.7% 18.0% 18.0% 12.0 0.3 3.4 0.5 0.0 19.4
13-7 20.7% 14.8% 14.8% 12.2 0.1 2.3 0.6 0.0 17.6
12-8 13.5% 11.0% 11.0% 12.3 0.0 1.0 0.5 0.0 12.0
11-9 6.6% 8.7% 8.7% 12.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 6.1
10-10 2.1% 4.5% 4.5% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
9-11 0.4% 5.1% 5.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.4
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 18.0% 18.0% 0.0% 12.0 82.0 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 10.8 4.9 12.2 78.0 4.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 7.7% 10.5 3.8 3.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 11.1% 11.0 11.1