Murray St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.9#100
Expected Predictive Rating+6.6#90
Pace77.8#22
Improvement+3.8#15

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#69
First Shot+3.8#79
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#104
Layup/Dunks-0.1#182
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#266
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#80
Freethrows+2.1#69
Improvement+2.5#32

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#168
First Shot-0.6#201
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#149
Layups/Dunks-3.4#297
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#303
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#27
Freethrows-0.7#223
Improvement+1.3#86
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.2% 16.7% 11.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.0 11.9 12.2
.500 or above 96.3% 97.8% 92.2%
.500 or above in Conference 85.0% 89.5% 73.0%
Conference Champion 18.7% 22.5% 8.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.3% 1.1%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round15.1% 16.6% 11.1%
Second Round2.5% 2.8% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drake (Home) - 72.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 23 - 44 - 6
Quad 37 - 511 - 10
Quad 411 - 122 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 235 Nebraska Omaha W 85-77 80%     1 - 0 +3.9 -1.1 +4.1
  Fri, Nov 7 365 Mississippi Valley W 108-60 99%     2 - 0 +22.3 +14.3 +3.4
  Tue, Nov 11 39 @SMU L 91-102 17%     2 - 1 +4.0 +11.5 -5.9
  Sat, Nov 15 258 Nicholls St. W 99-79 89%     3 - 1 +11.6 +16.1 -5.9
  Tue, Nov 18 313 Arkansas Little Rock W 89-68 93%     4 - 1 +9.0 +15.4 -5.2
  Sun, Nov 23 154 Middle Tennessee L 87-90 68%     4 - 2 -2.8 +7.6 -10.2
  Mon, Nov 24 71 McNeese St. L 60-73 38%     4 - 3 -5.1 -11.1 +6.8
  Tue, Nov 25 81 George Washington W 96-95 41%     5 - 3 +8.3 +20.7 -12.4
  Tue, Dec 2 323 Morehead St. W 84-52 94%     6 - 3 +19.4 +8.6 +12.1
  Sat, Dec 6 295 Bellarmine W 81-68 92%     7 - 3 +2.6 +5.2 -1.6
  Sat, Dec 13 65 Akron W 115-100 37%     8 - 3 +23.4 +23.8 -2.6
  Thu, Dec 18 135 Drake W 82-76 72%    
  Sun, Dec 21 212 @Valparaiso W 79-74 68%    
  Mon, Dec 29 130 Southern Illinois W 85-79 71%    
  Thu, Jan 1 190 @Illinois-Chicago W 84-80 64%    
  Sun, Jan 4 117 Bradley W 81-76 67%    
  Wed, Jan 7 276 @Evansville W 82-74 77%    
  Sat, Jan 10 212 Valparaiso W 82-71 84%    
  Sat, Jan 17 187 Indiana St. W 89-79 81%    
  Wed, Jan 21 135 @Drake W 79-78 51%    
  Sat, Jan 24 92 @Northern Iowa L 70-74 37%    
  Wed, Jan 28 90 Illinois St. W 81-79 58%    
  Sat, Jan 31 85 @Belmont L 83-88 33%    
  Tue, Feb 3 190 Illinois-Chicago W 87-77 81%    
  Fri, Feb 6 130 @Southern Illinois L 82-83 50%    
  Mon, Feb 9 92 Northern Iowa W 73-71 58%    
  Thu, Feb 12 187 @Indiana St. W 86-82 63%    
  Sun, Feb 15 85 Belmont W 86-85 55%    
  Wed, Feb 18 90 @Illinois St. L 78-82 36%    
  Sat, Feb 21 276 Evansville W 85-71 90%    
  Sun, Mar 1 117 @Bradley L 78-79 45%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.6 5.1 3.9 1.8 0.5 0.1 18.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 3.9 6.2 4.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.0 6.3 3.8 0.9 0.1 15.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.9 6.0 3.0 0.5 0.0 14.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.1 2.4 0.3 0.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.9 1.9 0.2 0.0 8.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.8 1.4 0.1 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 0.9 0.1 3.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.3 4.2 6.7 9.5 11.9 13.3 13.9 12.7 10.1 6.9 4.2 1.8 0.5 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5
18-2 98.9% 1.8    1.7 0.1
17-3 93.4% 3.9    3.3 0.6 0.0
16-4 74.9% 5.1    3.4 1.5 0.2
15-5 45.3% 4.6    2.1 1.9 0.5 0.0
14-6 17.2% 2.2    0.5 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.2% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 18.7% 18.7 11.7 5.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 69.4% 41.7% 27.8% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 47.6%
19-1 0.5% 48.3% 41.1% 7.3% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12.4%
18-2 1.8% 40.1% 36.5% 3.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.1 1.1 5.6%
17-3 4.2% 33.8% 33.0% 0.7% 11.4 0.0 0.8 0.6 0.0 2.8 1.1%
16-4 6.9% 28.2% 27.9% 0.2% 11.6 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.0 4.9 0.3%
15-5 10.1% 24.8% 24.8% 0.0% 11.9 0.0 0.5 1.8 0.2 0.0 7.6 0.0%
14-6 12.7% 19.8% 19.8% 12.0 0.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 10.2
13-7 13.9% 16.3% 16.3% 12.2 0.2 1.5 0.5 0.0 11.7
12-8 13.3% 11.0% 11.0% 12.4 0.0 0.9 0.5 0.0 11.9
11-9 11.9% 8.6% 8.6% 12.6 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 10.9
10-10 9.5% 5.3% 5.3% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 9.0
9-11 6.7% 4.5% 4.5% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.4
8-12 4.2% 3.2% 3.2% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.1
7-13 2.3% 1.8% 1.8% 14.7 0.0 0.0 2.2
6-14 1.1% 1.5% 1.5% 15.0 0.0 1.1
5-15 0.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 15.2% 15.0% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.2 8.6 2.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 84.8 0.2%