Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -2.2 #195
Expected Predictive Rating -4.2 #227
Pace 73.0 #75
Improvement +2.3 #80

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #214 B- D D+ D- A-
Defense #187 C C D+ B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #32 1.29 #61 +6.8 #13
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% #351 0.83 #74 -4.1 #348
Three Pointers 46% #87 0.92 #301 +0.1 #172
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #92 +2.8 #98
Freethrows 0.25 #328 70% #245 0.17 #327
Second Chance 24.5% #329 1.04 #180 0.26 #310
Turnovers 18.3% #295
Total Offense -1.6 #214

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #113 1.10 #105 -0.4 #193
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #93 0.88 #336 -2.6 #343
Three Pointers 36% #320 0.97 #117 +3.6 #49
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #154 +0.5 #164
Freethrows 0.24 #31 74% #263 0.18 #43
Second Chance 31.7% #237 1.03 #155 0.33 #204
Turnovers 15.0% #278
Total Defense -0.6 #187

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.8% #11 -0.3% #139
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.9% #148 -1.2% #163
Possession Length 17.3 #162 16.6 #67
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #201 0.20 #273
Improvement +3.3 #35 -0.9 #246

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 0.9% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.9
.500 or above 1.1% 1.9% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 0.6% 1.0% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 20.1% 13.3% 28.5%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
First Round0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Valparaiso (Home) - 55.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 35 - 95 - 16
Quad 46 - 411 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 172 @Charlotte L 76 - 92 34% -9  0 - 1 -14 +3 C C- C -17 D- F F
 Mon, Nov 10 264 @SIU Edwardsville W 64 - 55 51% +6  1 - 1 +6 -8 D D+ F +14 A A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 14 3 @Duke L 62 - 100 1% -19  1 - 2 -12 -3 C+ D+ D- -5 C+ F C
 Wed, Nov 19 221 Louisiana Tech W 60 - 51 66% +5  2 - 2 +2 -14 D- F C +17 A+ B- C
 Sat, Nov 22 294 Ball St. W 70 - 52 79% +2  3 - 2 +7 -2 C F+ D +11 A- C A
 Wed, Nov 26 221 @Louisiana Tech L 73 - 75 43% -1  3 - 3 -3 +6 A F B- -8 F F B
 Fri, Nov 28 350 Alcorn St. L 74 - 81 83% -11  3 - 4 -19 -13 F C F+ -6 F C+ A-
 Sun, Dec 7 321 Southern Indiana W 77 - 55 83% +11  4 - 4 +9 +7 B+ F C+ +4 C A+ D
 Sun, Dec 14 244 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 70 - 68 48% +1  5 - 4 +0 +0 A C- F +0 A+ F F
 Thu, Dec 18 126 Bradley L 99 - 108 3OT 45% -1  5 - 5 0 - 1 -10 -0 C- F+ A+ -7 C+ D+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 89 @Illinois St. L 65 - 85 15% -15  5 - 6 0 - 2 -11 -1 B F C -10 D A+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 75 Belmont W 81 - 80 OT 26% -2  6 - 6 1 - 2 +6 +3 A- D+ C- +3 A B- B
 Thu, Jan 1 108 @Northern Iowa L 66 - 75 19% -1  6 - 7 1 - 3 -2 +7 A+ F C -10 D+ F C
 Sun, Jan 4 148 @Drake L 72 - 74 28% +0  6 - 8 1 - 4 +2 +10 C+ A+ F -8 F+ D+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 270 Evansville L 69 - 72 75% -0  6 - 9 1 - 5 -12 -7 F C B- -5 F A C+
 Wed, Jan 14 89 Illinois St. W 94 - 89 30% +6  7 - 9 2 - 5 +8 +25 A+ D+ A+ -16 D- D+ F+
 Sat, Jan 17 101 @Murray St. L 81 - 85 17% -5  7 - 10 2 - 6 +4 +7 C+ B+ C- -2 C+ D+ C
 Wed, Jan 21 126 @Bradley L 68 - 75 25% +3  7 - 11 2 - 7 -2 -4 B+ F F +2 A+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 24 148 Drake L 62 - 76 50% -5  7 - 12 2 - 8 -16 -14 C F F -2 B- A- D
 Tue, Jan 27 136 @Illinois-Chicago L 74 - 76 26% -10  7 - 13 2 - 9 +2 +7 A+ A+ F -5 F+ A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 169 Valparaiso W 73 - 71 56%
 Tue, Feb 3 270 @Evansville W 73 - 72 53%
 Mon, Feb 9 145 Southern Illinois L 74 - 75 49%
 Thu, Feb 12 101 Murray St. L 83 - 87 35%
 Sun, Feb 15 169 @Valparaiso L 70 - 74 34%
 Wed, Feb 18 108 Northern Iowa L 64 - 67 39%
 Sat, Feb 21 75 @Belmont L 73 - 86 11%
 Wed, Feb 25 145 @Southern Illinois L 72 - 78 29%
 Sun, Mar 1 136 Illinois-Chicago L 73 - 74 48%
Totals 11 - 18 6 - 14 -2 -2 B- D D+ -1 C C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.4 0.1 2.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.6 4.5 0.8 0.0 9.7 8th
9th 0.3 3.6 9.8 9.1 2.0 0.1 25.0 9th
10th 0.3 3.6 13.5 18.8 12.6 2.9 0.1 51.8 10th
11th 1.4 3.9 3.3 1.1 0.1 9.8 11th
Total 1.7 7.5 17.2 23.6 23.3 15.7 7.8 2.7 0.5 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.1% 0.0 0.1
10-10 0.5% 3.8% 3.8% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.5
9-11 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 14.4 0.0 0.0 2.7
8-12 7.8% 1.2% 1.2% 15.1 0.1 0.0 7.7
7-13 15.7% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 15.6
6-14 23.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 23.2
5-15 23.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 23.4
4-16 17.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 17.1
3-17 7.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.5
2-18 1.7% 1.7
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 15.6 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.2%