Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -1.9 196
Results Rating -5.0 246
Consistency 0.14 109
Pace 70.1 131
Improvement +2.6 93

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 217 B- D+ D F+ A-
Defense C 172 C C+ D+ B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 33 B 65% 50 +6.6 14
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 339 C 38% 168 -4.1 350
Three Pointers 45% 91 D+ 32% 280 +0.7 157
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- +1.8 9 C+ +1.2 124
1st FG Attempt B- 1.08 86
Second Chance D 25.7% 309 C 1.02 195 D+ 0.26 285
Opponents' Steals D- 11.5% 339
Other Turnovers C- 7.5% 229
Turnovers D 19.0% 324
Freethrows D- 0.25 339 D- 68% 331 F+ 0.17 354
Total Offense C- -1.9 217

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots A- 61% 22 D+ 12.3% 259
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 31% 98 C 5.4% 213
Three Pointers B- 87% 104 D 1.4% 310
Total A- 67% 15 D 6.6% 301


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 122 C+ 56% 111 +0.4 195
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 106 F 46% 353 +2.4 339
Three Pointers 36% 306 B- 32% 77 -3.4 39
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 147 C -0.5 153
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 154
Second Chance D+ 32.6% 280 B+ 0.91 25 C+ 0.30 137
Turnovers from Steals C- 8.7% 242
Other Turnovers D+ 6.5% 287
Turnovers D+ 15.2% 276
Freethrows B 0.26 52 C+ 72% 129 B 0.19 52
Total Defense C +0.0 172

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B+ 41% 39 C- 9.9% 214
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 17% 35 D+ 3.4% 278
Three Pointers B- 81% 97 C- 0.6% 226
Total A- 46% 18 C- 5.1% 210

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.6 206 16.9 93
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 204 0.21 307
Consistency 0.13 250 0.12 121
Improvement +2.7 62 -0.1 189

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 197 196 196
Results Rating Rank 246 246 246
Conference Record 4 - 16 4 - 16 4 - 16
Conference Finish 10 10 10
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% n/a n/a
First Round0% n/a n/a
Second Round0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0% n/a n/a
Final Four0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0% n/a n/a
National Champion0% n/a n/a

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 61 - 9
Quad 32 - 93 - 18
Quad 46 - 39 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 172 @Charlotte L 76 - 92 33% -9  9% 0 - 1 D- -14 C -0 C+ D+ C F -13 D+ F F
 Mon, Nov 10 263 @SIU Edwardsville W 64 - 55 52% +6  88% 1 - 1 B- +6 F+ -10 F+ C- F A+ +16 A+ A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 14 1 @Duke L 62 - 100 1% -19  13% 1 - 2 D -9 D+ -4 B- D+ F C- -2 C+ F C+
 Wed, Nov 19 180 Louisiana Tech W 60 - 51 59% +5  95% 2 - 2 C+ +5 F -16 D- F B- A+ +21 A+ B D+
 Sat, Nov 22 281 Ball St. W 70 - 52 78% +2  39% 3 - 2 B- +8 C- -2 B- D- D A +11 A- C A-
 Wed, Nov 26 180 @Louisiana Tech L 73 - 75 36% -1  34% 3 - 3 C -0 B- +4 A F B+ D+ -4 D+ F C+
 Fri, Nov 28 351 Alcorn St. L 74 - 81 88% -11  1% 3 - 4 F -21 F -16 F C- F+ D+ -5 F C+ A+
 Sun, Dec 7 337 Southern Indiana W 77 - 55 89% +11  89% 4 - 4 B- +7 C+ +2 B+ F B- B+ +6 C- A+ D-
 Sun, Dec 14 270 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 70 - 68 55% +1  45% 5 - 4 C -1 D+ -3 A- C- F B- +2 A+ F F
 Thu, Dec 18 111 Bradley L 99 - 108 3OT 41% -1  46% 5 - 5 0 - 1 D -8 C- -2 C- F A D+ -4 B- D F
 Sun, Dec 21 103 @Illinois St. L 65 - 85 18% -15  10% 5 - 6 0 - 2 D- -12 D+ -3 B F C F+ -9 D A F
 Mon, Dec 29 78 Belmont W 81 - 80 OT 26% -2  24% 6 - 6 1 - 2 B- +6 C- -2 B+ D+ C- A- +7 A B B+
 Thu, Jan 1 81 @Northern Iowa L 66 - 75 13% -1  32% 6 - 7 1 - 3 C +1 B- +5 A+ F C+ D+ -4 C F C-
 Sun, Jan 4 188 @Drake L 72 - 74 37% +0  48% 6 - 8 1 - 4 C -1 B- +4 C A+ F D+ -5 F D+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 294 Evansville L 69 - 72 80% -0  37% 6 - 9 1 - 5 D- -14 F -13 F C C+ C -1 F A B
 Wed, Jan 14 103 Illinois St. W 94 - 89 36% +6  87% 7 - 9 2 - 5 B- +7 A+ +22 A+ F A+ F -15 F+ D- F
 Sat, Jan 17 127 @Murray St. L 81 - 85 24% -5  1% 7 - 10 2 - 6 C +1 C+ +3 C A- C- C -1 C D C
 Wed, Jan 21 111 @Bradley L 68 - 75 21% +3  82% 7 - 11 2 - 7 C -0 D -6 A- F F B+ +5 A+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 24 188 Drake L 62 - 76 60% -5  4% 7 - 12 2 - 8 F -19 F -20 C- F F C+ +2 B- A D
 Tue, Jan 27 107 @Illinois-Chicago L 74 - 76 19% -9  1% 7 - 13 2 - 9 B- +5 B +6 A+ A+ F C -1 F+ A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 157 Valparaiso L 72 - 76 OT 53% +3  72% 7 - 14 2 - 10 D+ -7 D -5 B- F C C- -2 B C- D
 Tue, Feb 3 294 @Evansville W 84 - 63 60% +15  98% 8 - 14 3 - 10 A- +16 A+ +17 A+ A- B- B- +2 C+ C+ D
 Mon, Feb 9 122 Southern Illinois L 65 - 80 44% -7  10% 8 - 15 3 - 11 F+ -15 F+ -9 D B F+ D -5 D- B+ C-
 Thu, Feb 12 127 Murray St. L 72 - 74 45% -9  0% 8 - 16 3 - 12 C- -3 C- -1 A F+ F+ C -1 B- F A+
 Sun, Feb 15 157 @Valparaiso L 75 - 76 31% -3  13% 8 - 17 3 - 13 C+ +2 A +13 A- A A F -11 F F C-
 Wed, Feb 18 81 Northern Iowa L 60 - 81 27% -3  35% 8 - 18 3 - 14 F+ -17 D -5 B- C- F F -13 F B+ F+
 Sat, Feb 21 78 @Belmont L 70 - 87 12% -10  6% 8 - 19 3 - 15 D+ -6 D- -6 C+ D- C C+ +1 C+ A+ F
 Wed, Feb 25 122 @Southern Illinois L 55 - 66 23% -9  15% 8 - 20 3 - 16 D+ -5 F -13 D- C- F A- +7 A B+ F
 Sun, Mar 1 107 Illinois-Chicago W 79 - 63 38% +6  59% 9 - 20 4 - 16 A- +17 B+ +8 A+ F F A +9 B- A+ A
 Thu, Mar 5 157 Valparaiso L 62 - 63 41% +5  88% 9 - 21 C -1 C- -2 B C F C+ +1 C+ B+ D+
Totals 9 - 21 4 - 16 -2 C- -2 B C+ A- C +0 D+ D- F+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- B C D+ C+ 45% 22% 45% A- B- D C D+ D D- D- F+ C C+ F B- C 41% 23% 36% C C D+ B+ C+ D+ B C+ B
1.06 65% 38% 32% +1 +2 1.08 26% 1.0 .26 19% .25 68% .17 1.09 56% 46% 32% -1 0 1.01 33% 0.9 .30 15% .26 72% .18
Nov
3		 Charlotte C B B- F+ C 44% 10% 46% A- C+ F+ A- D+ C B+ C B F C A+ F C- 51% 12% 37% D- D+ F D F F F B+ F
1.10 65% 40% 29% 0 +2 1.06 23% 1.3 .29 14% .36 71% .25 1.33 62% 0% 47% +5 +2 1.16 53% 1.0 .53 12% .49 67% .33
Nov
10		 SIU Edwardsville F+ F A F F 37% 8% 55% A F+ B- D- C- F C B C+ A+ C A- A+ A 29% 45% 25% A+ A+ D- A+ A+ B+ B- B+ B
0.90 44% 50% 26% -11 +1 0.84 35% 0.9 .30 24% .31 76% .24 0.77 56% 28% 21% -10 -4 0.75 33% 0.4 .14 21% .23 62% .14
Nov
14		 Duke D+ C F D+ C 43% 6% 51% A+ B- C+ F D+ F B+ F C+ C- C- D- C+ B 53% 4% 44% D- C+ F F F C+ B- A- B+
0.81 52% 0% 30% -8 +2 0.91 24% 0.5 .12 24% .26 60% .15 1.31 66% 50% 33% +4 +3 1.16 48% 1.4 .70 16% .33 67% .22
Nov
19		 Louisiana Tech F F F D- F 34% 2% 64% A- D- F C F B- F C+ F A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 46% 30% 24% B- A+ A- C+ B D+ F+ A+ C-
0.84 39% 0% 29% -12 +2 0.83 17% 1.0 .17 17% .20 75% .15 0.71 28% 31% 15% -23 -1 0.56 29% 0.8 .23 17% .34 55% .18
Nov
22		 Ball St. C- B A+ F+ C+ 42% 8% 50% A B- B- F D- D F A+ F+ A A+ F A+ A- 34% 30% 36% A A- F A C A- A+ F A+
1.08 65% 75% 29% +2 +2 1.10 35% 0.7 .26 20% .17 100% .17 0.80 33% 50% 21% -12 -2 0.75 34% 0.7 .23 20% .10 80% .08
Nov
26		 Louisiana Tech B- A+ F F A- 54% 8% 38% A+ A F A+ F B+ F A+ F D+ C F A+ D- 43% 33% 24% B+ D+ C- F F C+ A+ F A
1.08 79% 0% 25% +3 +3 1.13 15% 1.3 .19 15% .17 90% .16 1.11 57% 56% 23% +1 -1 1.02 37% 1.5 .53 19% .13 86% .11
Nov
28		 Alcorn St. F F+ F F F 51% 4% 45% A- F F+ A+ C- F+ A- A A D+ F+ F C F 46% 20% 33% D- F F A+ C+ A+ D A C
0.93 54% 0% 16% -16 +3 0.76 29% 1.5 .43 21% .40 80% .32 1.02 64% 64% 33% +8 +1 1.19 38% 0.5 .21 25% .30 61% .18
Dec
7		 Southern Indiana C+ A- F B B 52% 9% 39% A- B+ F+ F F B- F A+ F B+ A- B C- C- 33% 25% 41% B- C- A+ A+ A+ D- A F B-
1.18 68% 20% 38% +6 +2 1.19 25% 0.5 .13 14% .18 90% .16 0.84 41% 31% 33% -8 -1 0.84 16% 0.3 .05 14% .23 77% .18
Dec
14		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee D+ A A+ F A 38% 17% 45% C- A- F A+ C- F F F F B- A+ F A+ A+ 35% 26% 39% C+ A+ D- F F F D- F F
1.07 72% 88% 29% +10 0 1.23 20% 1.6 .32 23% .12 67% .08 1.04 37% 50% 19% -13 -1 0.74 36% 1.3 .47 9% .32 79% .25
Dec
18		 Bradley C- B- F C+ D 36% 11% 53% A C- F F+ F A A+ D+ A+ D+ B- F A C+ 29% 34% 37% A+ B- C- D- D F C+ A+ B+
1.05 61% 0% 35% -2 +1 1.00 20% 0.8 .16 15% .53 70% .37 1.14 55% 50% 29% 0 -2 0.97 28% 1.2 .33 8% .31 63% .20
Dec
21		 Illinois St. D+ B- F C+ C+ 41% 7% 52% A+ B F A+ F C A+ F A F+ F D- A+ F+ 42% 32% 26% B D B+ A+ A F B+ F B-
0.96 61% 0% 35% -1 +2 1.05 6% 1.5 .10 16% .47 59% .28 1.25 79% 44% 27% +8 -1 1.16 24% 0.9 .21 6% .23 80% .19
Dec
29		 Belmont C- D+ F A+ B+ 39% 11% 50% B+ B+ C D D+ C- A+ F C A- A+ A+ F A+ 46% 11% 44% C- A C- A+ B B+ C+ F D+
1.07 52% 17% 44% +3 +1 1.11 31% 0.9 .28 18% .42 50% .21 1.06 46% 17% 44% -1 +2 1.04 29% 1.0 .29 21% .28 82% .23
Jan
1		 Northern Iowa B- A+ A+ F A+ 49% 6% 45% A+ A+ F F F C+ F F F D+ C F A+ B- 65% 12% 22% F C F D+ F C- D+ B C-
1.02 81% 67% 25% +7 +3 1.21 7% 0.0 .00 17% .07 50% .04 1.16 59% 83% 18% +1 +3 1.10 33% 1.2 .40 14% .27 67% .18
Jan
4		 Drake B- B F D D+ 39% 5% 57% A+ C B- A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ D+ B F D F 33% 29% 37% B+ F D- B D+ C A+ A+ A+
1.14 65% 0% 32% -1 +2 1.05 34% 1.6 .55 22% .39 84% .33 1.17 53% 73% 37% +10 -1 1.20 31% 1.0 .31 14% .17 44% .07
Jan
10		 Evansville F D B F F 47% 13% 40% A F C+ C C C+ C D- C- C B+ F+ F F 38% 23% 39% D F A+ F A B A+ F A+
0.96 54% 43% 18% -11 +2 0.84 33% 1.0 .33 15% .28 71% .20 1.00 52% 46% 45% +6 0 1.14 7% 2.0 .14 21% .07 100% .07
Jan
14		 Illinois St. A+ A+ B+ A A+ 46% 14% 40% A+ A+ C F F A+ A+ B+ A+ F D+ F F F 33% 29% 37% A- F+ B F D- F F D F
1.37 83% 43% 40% +16 +1 1.36 28% 0.5 .14 9% .48 73% .35 1.29 65% 53% 42% +11 -1 1.22 24% 1.6 .38 12% .39 75% .30
Jan
17		 Murray St. C+ C D- B- C- 58% 22% 20% B+ C C A+ A- C- D- F F C B- A+ D+ B- 42% 7% 51% F C D C- D C D B+ C-
1.12 56% 33% 36% -1 +1 1.02 32% 1.4 .45 17% .25 60% .15 1.18 57% 25% 36% 0 +2 1.05 36% 1.2 .42 15% .38 70% .26
Jan
21		 Bradley D A+ B+ C- B+ 40% 18% 42% A- A- F F F F F C- F B+ A A+ A+ A+ 38% 22% 40% C- A+ C+ D- C- F F F F
0.95 75% 44% 33% +8 0 1.18 11% 0.7 .07 27% .19 70% .13 1.05 48% 25% 23% -14 0 0.75 26% 1.2 .31 4% .45 84% .38
Jan
24		 Drake F A+ C+ F D+ 33% 17% 50% B C- F F F F B- F D+ C+ F A A- B- 30% 24% 46% B- B- C+ A+ A D F+ B D
0.85 75% 38% 25% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.5 .11 25% .31 59% .18 1.04 75% 31% 28% -1 -1 0.98 25% 0.7 .18 12% .37 67% .25
Jan
27		 Illinois-Chicago B A+ A+ D+ A+ 43% 7% 50% A A+ A+ A+ A+ F F F F C C D+ F F+ 45% 24% 31% C- F+ C A+ A+ D+ D+ D+ D
1.09 74% 67% 32% +7 +2 1.20 50% 1.2 .61 31% .17 50% .09 1.12 57% 42% 44% +5 0 1.12 36% 0.7 .24 16% .35 75% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Valparaiso D A F F C 52% 8% 40% A+ B- F F F C B+ F C- C- A+ F A+ A- 51% 29% 20% F B F A C- D F+ B+ D+
1.01 70% 25% 24% -1 +3 1.06 22% 0.8 .17 17% .35 57% .20 1.07 43% 56% 18% -7 0 0.87 39% 0.9 .34 13% .42 65% .27
Feb
3		 Evansville A+ A- C- A+ A+ 37% 15% 48% B A+ B A A- B- F F F B- A- F A+ C- 17% 40% 43% A+ C+ D A+ C+ D D- A+ C-
1.34 68% 38% 48% +14 +1 1.31 37% 1.2 .43 14% .17 56% .09 1.01 50% 58% 25% +1 -4 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 16% .32 65% .21
Feb
9		 Southern Illinois F+ C- C+ F F 49% 10% 41% A D D- A+ B F+ C- D+ D+ D D+ D- D+ D- 46% 29% 25% C- D- D- A+ B+ C- A C- A-
0.87 54% 40% 20% -10 +2 0.86 22% 1.6 .35 23% .26 67% .17 1.07 63% 47% 33% +5 -1 1.10 35% 0.6 .20 16% .21 69% .14
Feb
12		 Murray St. C- F A+ A+ A- 38% 10% 52% A- A C+ F F+ F+ A+ F A+ C D+ F A+ B- 40% 21% 40% C+ B- F C F A+ F B D-
1.11 38% 100% 45% +7 +1 1.19 33% 0.6 .21 20% .52 59% .31 1.14 63% 50% 26% 0 0 1.02 45% 1.1 .52 22% .41 71% .29
Feb
15		 Valparaiso A A+ F F B+ 55% 14% 31% A A- B- A+ A A F+ D+ F+ F F C- F F 27% 36% 36% B+ F F B- F C- D- A+ A-
1.23 78% 14% 27% +4 +2 1.14 35% 1.2 .42 13% .24 69% .17 1.24 83% 38% 44% +12 -3 1.20 44% 1.0 .44 15% .40 48% .19
Feb
18		 Northern Iowa D D+ A+ D+ C+ 49% 9% 43% A+ B- A F C- F C+ F D- F B- F F F 41% 13% 46% D+ F A+ F B+ F+ A+ A+ A+
0.92 52% 50% 30% -4 +2 0.98 36% 0.6 .22 26% .27 54% .15 1.25 57% 86% 46% +14 +1 1.32 11% 1.7 .18 11% .10 33% .03
Feb
21		 Belmont D- A F F+ C- 43% 9% 48% A C+ F B+ D- C F A+ F C+ F+ F A+ C 34% 20% 46% A C+ A A+ A+ F A- F C
0.96 68% 0% 29% -3 +2 1.00 20% 1.1 .23 18% .13 88% .12 1.19 71% 75% 29% +8 0 1.18 21% 0.4 .09 12% .23 87% .20
Feb
25		 Southern Illinois F C F F F+ 29% 18% 53% C D- D B+ C- F D- F F A- F+ A+ A+ A+ 46% 25% 30% D A A C+ B+ F B- F D+
0.78 57% 22% 27% -9 0 0.84 23% 1.1 .26 25% .23 50% .11 0.93 69% 21% 12% -9 0 0.84 23% 0.9 .21 11% .26 88% .22
Mar
1		 Illinois-Chicago B+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 26% 17% 57% C- A+ F F F F F+ C+ D- A B F A+ A- 64% 13% 22% F B- D- A+ A+ A F C- F
1.17 83% 38% 52% +22 0 1.45 25% 0.7 .17 25% .24 75% .18 0.93 52% 50% 20% -7 +3 0.93 41% 0.3 .11 22% .50 73% .36
Mar
5		 Valparaiso C- A+ F D+ B 41% 17% 41% B- B B+ F C F F B F C+ A A- F+ B- 34% 25% 41% D C+ F A+ B+ D+ F A+ C
1.04 79% 13% 32% +3 +1 1.09 39% 0.8 .29 23% .09 75% .07 1.06 47% 27% 39% -4 -1 0.93 39% 0.7 .27 13% .43 59% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 100.0 100.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16 100.0% 100.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%