IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	+6.1	#89
Expected Predictive Rating	+3.7	#107

Pace	66.5	#247
Improvement	+0.9	#139

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#100	C+	C+	C+	C	C-
Defense	#85	B-	B	C	C	B+

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	36%	#261	1.30	#50	+0.8	#148
2 Pt. Jumpers	22%	#156	0.78	#137	+0.6	#148
Three Pointers	43%	#147	1.03	#175	+1.1	#143
1st FG Attempt			1.07	#109	+2.6	#109
Freethrows	0.30	#188	71%	#228	0.21	#195
Second Chance	29.9%	#206	1.15	#58	0.35	#120
Turnovers					15.7%	#133
Total Offense					+2.8	#100

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	36%	#262	1.14	#154	+1.9	#118
2 Pt. Jumpers	28%	#20	0.67	#53	-1.7	#307
Three Pointers	36%	#302	1.00	#152	+2.8	#77
1st FG Attempt			0.96	#80	+3.0	#83
Freethrows	0.32	#244	68%	#26	0.22	#179
Second Chance	26.5%	#47	0.98	#95	0.26	#46
Turnovers					16.4%	#181
Total Defense					+3.3	#85

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	-0.7%	#231	-2.3%	#26
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	5.8%	#84	-3.9%	#106
Possession Length	18.3	#271	17.0	#124
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.12	#316	0.15	#96
Improvement	+0.2	#171	+0.7	#146

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	20.6%	24.7%	17.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	12.1	12.0	12.3

.500 or above	99.5%	99.9%	99.2%
.500 or above in Conference	95.8%	99.0%	93.5%
Conference Champion	12.0%	21.7%	4.8%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	20.6%	24.7%	17.6%
Second Round	2.8%	3.5%	2.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.4%	0.5%	0.4%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Murray St. (Away) - 42.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 2	2 - 3	2 - 5
Quad 3	10 - 5	12 - 11
Quad 4	9 - 1	21 - 11

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Thu, Nov 6	214 @Ohio	L	68 - 72	73%	-2	0 - 1		-4	-5	D+	F	C	+0	D	A+	F
Sun, Nov 9	176 Cornell	W	76 - 65	83%	+4	1 - 1		+7	-8	D-	C-	F	+15	A+	B-	D
Fri, Nov 14	48 USC	L	67 - 87	31%	-12	1 - 2		-9	+2	D	B+	C+	-11	C-	C-	F
Sun, Nov 16	251 @Long Beach St.	W	82 - 80	78%	+4	2 - 2		+0	+11	C-	F+	A+	-11	D-	C	F
Sun, Nov 23	237 Coastal Carolina	W	94 - 42	89%	+30	3 - 2		+45	+13	A+	C-	B+	+28	A+	A+	C
Thu, Nov 27	172 Charlotte	W	79 - 69	75%	+10	4 - 2		+9	+9	B-	B-	A-	+1	D-	A+	A+
Fri, Nov 28	159 Furman	W	72 - 65	72%	+4	5 - 2		+7	+3	C	A+	C	+4	C	A+	C+
Wed, Dec 3	258 Eastern Kentucky	W	89 - 78	90%	+9	6 - 2		+3	+8	A-	A-	D	-5	C	C+	C
Sat, Dec 6	358 Chicago St.	W	95 - 53	98%	+30	7 - 2		+24	+18	A	B	B-	+8	A+	D	A+
Sat, Dec 13	40 Utah St.	L	78 - 83	26%	-6	7 - 3		+8	+14	A+	A+	F+	-6	D	D	A+
Thu, Dec 18	145 @Southern Illinois	W	75 - 68	58%	-0	8 - 3	1 - 0	+11	+7	B-	A	D+	+4	C	C-	A+
Sun, Dec 21	195 Indiana St.	W	85 - 65	85%	+15	9 - 3	2 - 0	+15	+13	A-	F+	A+	+3	C+	A+	D+
Mon, Dec 29	148 @Drake	W	73 - 56	59%	+8	10 - 3	3 - 0	+21	+7	A+	F	F	+15	A+	B-	C-
Thu, Jan 1	270 Evansville	W	73 - 47	92%	+14	11 - 3	4 - 0	+17	-3	C	F	A	+19	A+	A	A+
Wed, Jan 7	169 @Valparaiso	L	71 - 77	65%	-5	11 - 4	4 - 1	-4	+7	C-	B	B+	-11	F	A+	C+
Sat, Jan 10	136 Illinois-Chicago	L	59 - 63 OT	77%	-1	11 - 5	4 - 2	-6	-13	F	D+	B	+7	A+	F	B+
Wed, Jan 14	195 @Indiana St.	L	89 - 94	70%	-6	11 - 6	4 - 3	-4	+19	A	B-	B+	-23	F	B-	F
Sat, Jan 17	126 Bradley	W	88 - 62	75%	+13	12 - 6	5 - 3	+25	+19	A-	A-	A+	+7	A+	B	A-
Wed, Jan 21	108 Northern Iowa	W	59 - 54	69%	+5	13 - 6	6 - 3	+6	-4	C-	B	F	+10	A+	C-	C
Sat, Jan 24	75 @Belmont	L	69 - 80	33%	-6	13 - 7	6 - 4	-0	+0	D-	B+	D	-1	D-	A	B-
Wed, Jan 28	101 @Murray St.	L	80 - 82	42%
Tue, Feb 3	145 Southern Illinois	W	75 - 67	78%
Fri, Feb 6	148 Drake	W	75 - 67	79%
Mon, Feb 9	270 @Evansville	W	74 - 65	81%
Thu, Feb 12	169 Valparaiso	W	74 - 64	83%
Sun, Feb 15	136 @Illinois-Chicago	W	72 - 70	57%
Wed, Feb 18	101 Murray St.	W	83 - 79	65%
Sat, Feb 21	126 @Bradley	W	73 - 72	54%
Wed, Feb 25	108 @Northern Iowa	L	62 - 63	47%
Sun, Mar 1	75 Belmont	W	77 - 76	55%
Totals						19 - 11	12 - 8	+6	+3	C+	C+	C+	+3	B-	B	C

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Missouri Valley Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0	Total
1st													0.0	0.8	4.3	5.3	1.5					12.0	1st
2nd												0.0	1.8	10.0	10.6	2.5	0.1					25.1	2nd
3rd												1.5	10.6	10.7	2.0	0.0						24.8	3rd
4th											0.5	6.1	8.3	1.3	0.0							16.2	4th
5th										0.1	2.7	6.2	1.6	0.0								10.6	5th
6th									0.0	0.8	3.9	1.8	0.1									6.7	6th
7th								0.0	0.2	1.6	1.4	0.1										3.3	7th
8th							0.0	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.1											1.2	8th
9th							0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1												0.2	9th
10th							0.0															0.0	10th
11th																							11th

Total							0.0	0.1	0.8	3.2	8.5	15.7	22.3	22.9	16.9	7.9	1.6						Total

Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4	93.6%	1.5	1.2	0.3
15-5	67.6%	5.3	2.6	2.5	0.2
14-6	25.3%	4.3	0.8	2.1	1.3	0.2
13-7	3.6%	0.8	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.0
12-8	0.0%	0.0					0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	12.0%	12.0	4.6	5.1	1.9	0.3	0.1

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4	1.6%	39.5%	39.2%	0.3%	11.2									0.0	0.0	0.5	0.2					1.0	0.5%
15-5	7.9%	32.6%	32.6%		11.7											0.8	1.7	0.1				5.3
14-6	16.9%	27.6%	27.6%		12.0											0.7	3.4	0.5				12.2
13-7	22.9%	24.2%	24.2%		12.2											0.3	4.1	1.1	0.0			17.3
12-8	22.3%	17.5%	17.5%		12.3											0.1	2.5	1.2	0.1			18.4
11-9	15.7%	14.0%	14.0%		12.6												1.0	1.1	0.1	0.0		13.5
10-10	8.5%	9.9%	9.9%		12.6												0.4	0.4	0.1			7.7
9-11	3.2%	5.3%	5.3%		13.1												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0		3.0
8-12	0.8%	3.6%	3.6%		14.3													0.0	0.0	0.0		0.8
7-13	0.1%	3.7%	3.7%		15.0															0.0		0.1
6-14	0.0%																					0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20

Total	100%	20.6%	20.6%	0.0%	12.1																	79.4	0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	9	10	11	12
Win Out	0.6%	100.0%	11.2	0.8	4.7	70.5	24.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.3%	1.6%	11.0			1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.4%