Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.7#90
Expected Predictive Rating+4.9#105
Pace66.7#256
Improvement+3.5#16

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#83
First Shot+3.5#83
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#153
Layup/Dunks+0.2#169
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#85
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#86
Freethrows-1.7#282
Improvement+4.6#2

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#110
First Shot+0.5#151
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#92
Layups/Dunks-2.8#278
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#175
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#112
Freethrows+0.9#129
Improvement-1.0#262
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.9% 20.9% 14.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.0 11.9 12.2
.500 or above 96.1% 98.4% 93.5%
.500 or above in Conference 88.6% 94.2% 82.3%
Conference Champion 24.0% 32.4% 14.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round17.8% 20.8% 14.6%
Second Round3.3% 4.2% 2.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.9% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Away) - 52.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 6
Quad 38 - 411 - 10
Quad 410 - 121 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 175 @Ohio L 68-72 64%     0 - 1 -2.0 -5.2 +3.2
  Sun, Nov 9 161 Cornell W 76-65 80%     1 - 1 +7.9 -5.3 +12.8
  Fri, Nov 14 34 USC L 67-87 24%     1 - 2 -7.0 -0.1 -7.2
  Sun, Nov 16 279 @Long Beach St. W 82-80 80%     2 - 2 -1.2 +8.9 -10.1
  Sun, Nov 23 243 Coastal Carolina W 94-42 89%     3 - 2 +44.3 +13.7 +27.5
  Thu, Nov 27 195 Charlotte W 79-69 78%     4 - 2 +7.7 +8.9 -0.5
  Fri, Nov 28 148 Furman W 72-65 69%     5 - 2 +7.7 +1.9 +6.2
  Wed, Dec 3 257 Eastern Kentucky W 89-78 90%     6 - 2 +2.7 +8.8 -6.3
  Sat, Dec 6 350 Chicago St. W 95-53 97%     7 - 2 +26.4 +18.0 +10.3
  Sat, Dec 13 43 Utah St. L 78-83 30%     7 - 3 +6.3 +13.5 -7.5
  Thu, Dec 18 130 @Southern Illinois W 75-74 53%    
  Sun, Dec 21 187 Indiana St. W 81-71 84%    
  Mon, Dec 29 135 @Drake W 72-71 54%    
  Thu, Jan 1 276 Evansville W 78-63 92%    
  Wed, Jan 7 212 @Valparaiso W 73-67 71%    
  Sat, Jan 10 190 Illinois-Chicago W 80-69 83%    
  Wed, Jan 14 187 @Indiana St. W 78-74 65%    
  Sat, Jan 17 117 Bradley W 74-68 70%    
  Wed, Jan 21 92 Northern Iowa W 67-64 61%    
  Sun, Jan 25 85 @Belmont L 75-79 36%    
  Wed, Jan 28 100 @Murray St. L 79-81 42%    
  Tue, Feb 3 130 Southern Illinois W 78-71 72%    
  Fri, Feb 6 135 Drake W 75-68 74%    
  Mon, Feb 9 276 @Evansville W 75-66 78%    
  Thu, Feb 12 212 Valparaiso W 76-64 85%    
  Sun, Feb 15 190 @Illinois-Chicago W 77-72 65%    
  Wed, Feb 18 100 Murray St. W 82-78 64%    
  Sat, Feb 21 117 @Bradley L 71-72 48%    
  Wed, Feb 25 92 @Northern Iowa L 64-67 40%    
  Sun, Mar 1 85 Belmont W 78-76 58%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.5 5.4 6.7 5.2 2.8 0.8 0.2 24.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 3.9 6.9 5.4 2.2 0.4 0.0 19.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.1 6.7 3.8 0.9 0.1 16.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.5 5.3 2.8 0.5 0.0 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.3 2.1 0.2 0.0 9.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.1 1.2 0.1 0.0 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.1 5.3 7.9 10.4 12.4 14.1 13.7 11.7 9.0 5.6 2.8 0.8 0.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8
18-2 99.0% 2.8    2.6 0.1
17-3 92.5% 5.2    4.5 0.7 0.0
16-4 74.6% 6.7    4.6 1.9 0.2
15-5 46.1% 5.4    2.5 2.3 0.6 0.1
14-6 18.5% 2.5    0.7 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.3% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 24.0% 24.0 15.9 6.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 66.0% 44.7% 21.3% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 38.5%
19-1 0.8% 52.3% 45.2% 7.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 12.9%
18-2 2.8% 45.0% 42.8% 2.3% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.5 4.0%
17-3 5.6% 35.2% 35.0% 0.2% 11.5 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 3.6 0.3%
16-4 9.0% 30.1% 30.0% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 0.8 1.7 0.2 6.3 0.2%
15-5 11.7% 23.6% 23.6% 11.9 0.5 1.9 0.3 0.0 8.9
14-6 13.7% 21.2% 21.2% 12.1 0.3 2.0 0.6 0.0 10.8
13-7 14.1% 15.9% 15.9% 12.3 0.1 1.4 0.7 0.0 11.9
12-8 12.4% 12.6% 12.6% 12.6 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 10.9
11-9 10.4% 10.3% 10.3% 12.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 9.3
10-10 7.9% 6.3% 6.3% 13.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 7.4
9-11 5.3% 5.0% 5.0% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.0
8-12 3.1% 3.3% 3.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.0
7-13 1.8% 2.4% 2.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
6-14 0.7% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.7
5-15 0.3% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 17.9% 17.8% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.7 9.5 3.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 82.1 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 6.6 4.8 4.8 9.5 33.3 19.0 19.0 4.8 4.8