Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.1#130
Expected Predictive Rating+0.9#158
Pace72.6#100
Improvement+1.4#89

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#145
First Shot+0.4#161
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#163
Layup/Dunks+5.2#36
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#8
3 Pt Jumpshots-11.4#364
Freethrows+0.7#133
Improvement-1.3#288

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#125
First Shot-0.5#197
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#63
Layups/Dunks+5.1#35
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#332
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#316
Freethrows+0.8#131
Improvement+2.7#24
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.6% 8.4% 5.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.6 13.1
.500 or above 57.5% 69.8% 46.5%
.500 or above in Conference 60.8% 73.0% 50.0%
Conference Champion 6.2% 10.2% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 1.4% 5.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round6.6% 8.4% 5.0%
Second Round0.7% 1.0% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Home) - 47.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 73 - 8
Quad 35 - 68 - 14
Quad 49 - 116 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 345 UMKC W 101-78 93%     1 - 0 +8.2 +15.9 -9.6
  Wed, Nov 12 99 @Nevada L 81-86 OT 28%     1 - 1 +3.0 +2.5 +1.0
  Mon, Nov 17 144 @North Dakota St. L 85-92 43%     1 - 2 -3.1 +6.2 -8.6
  Sun, Nov 23 282 Delaware W 79-59 79%     2 - 2 +13.5 +5.7 +8.4
  Mon, Nov 24 110 UAB L 73-81 43%     2 - 3 -4.2 +1.9 -6.1
  Wed, Nov 26 76 @Memphis L 58-74 21%     2 - 4 -5.4 -8.7 +3.4
  Sat, Nov 29 313 Arkansas Little Rock W 74-65 90%     3 - 4 -3.0 +2.5 -4.7
  Wed, Dec 3 95 @High Point W 86-84 27%     4 - 4 +10.4 +9.5 +0.8
  Wed, Dec 10 251 Tennessee Martin W 83-54 83%     5 - 4 +20.9 +8.1 +12.9
  Sat, Dec 13 102 @Richmond L 84-93 OT 29%     5 - 5 -1.3 -1.7 +2.1
  Thu, Dec 18 90 Illinois St. L 74-75 47%    
  Sun, Dec 21 117 @Bradley L 71-75 34%    
  Mon, Dec 29 100 @Murray St. L 79-85 29%    
  Thu, Jan 1 212 Valparaiso W 76-68 78%    
  Sun, Jan 4 85 @Belmont L 75-83 24%    
  Wed, Jan 7 190 @Illinois-Chicago W 76-75 53%    
  Wed, Jan 14 135 Drake W 75-72 62%    
  Sat, Jan 17 85 Belmont L 78-80 45%    
  Wed, Jan 21 212 @Valparaiso W 73-71 58%    
  Sun, Jan 25 276 @Evansville W 75-70 67%    
  Wed, Jan 28 92 Northern Iowa L 67-68 48%    
  Sat, Jan 31 190 Illinois-Chicago W 79-72 74%    
  Tue, Feb 3 90 @Illinois St. L 71-78 28%    
  Fri, Feb 6 100 Murray St. W 83-82 50%    
  Mon, Feb 9 187 @Indiana St. W 78-77 53%    
  Thu, Feb 12 276 Evansville W 78-67 84%    
  Sun, Feb 15 117 Bradley W 74-72 57%    
  Wed, Feb 18 135 @Drake L 72-75 41%    
  Sat, Feb 21 92 @Northern Iowa L 64-71 28%    
  Wed, Feb 25 187 Indiana St. W 81-74 72%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.8 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 2.4 3.1 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 8.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.3 4.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 10.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.9 5.2 2.0 0.3 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.2 5.9 2.3 0.2 13.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.3 5.8 2.3 0.2 13.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.0 5.3 2.2 0.2 0.0 12.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.2 3.9 1.7 0.2 10.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 2.5 1.0 0.1 6.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.3 0.5 0.1 4.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.8 4.9 7.3 9.9 12.4 13.2 13.2 11.5 9.1 6.4 3.9 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 99.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
17-3 93.7% 0.8    0.7 0.1
16-4 73.9% 1.6    1.1 0.5 0.0
15-5 46.6% 1.8    0.8 0.7 0.3 0.0
14-6 18.0% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1
13-7 3.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.2% 6.2 3.3 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 18.8% 18.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.3% 28.9% 27.8% 1.0% 11.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.4%
17-3 0.9% 28.1% 28.1% 11.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
16-4 2.2% 21.2% 21.2% 11.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.7
15-5 3.9% 19.1% 19.1% 12.1 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.2
14-6 6.4% 15.9% 15.9% 12.4 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 5.4
13-7 9.1% 11.6% 11.6% 12.6 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.1 8.0
12-8 11.5% 8.2% 8.2% 12.8 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 10.6
11-9 13.2% 6.4% 6.4% 13.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 12.3
10-10 13.2% 4.1% 4.1% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 12.7
9-11 12.4% 2.4% 2.4% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 12.1
8-12 9.9% 1.7% 1.7% 15.4 0.1 0.1 9.7
7-13 7.3% 1.4% 1.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 7.2
6-14 4.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 4.8
5-15 2.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.8
4-16 1.3% 1.3
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.2% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.6 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.2 93.4 0.0%