Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.9 #145
Expected Predictive Rating -1.6 #197
Pace 72.2 #88
Improvement -0.2 #189

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #235 C C C C D+
Defense #84 C+ C+ C+ C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #55 1.18 #148 +3.5 #72
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #30 0.94 #16 +6.2 #4
Three Pointers 27% #364 0.79 #361 -10.3 #364
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #192 -0.7 #192
Freethrows 0.32 #132 67% #329 0.21 #201
Second Chance 30.2% #201 1.10 #100 0.33 #146
Turnovers 16.4% #180
Total Offense -2.4 #235

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #256 1.14 #147 +2.0 #116
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #146 0.82 #284 -1.0 #265
Three Pointers 43% #126 0.91 #53 +1.4 #126
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #109 +2.3 #105
Freethrows 0.28 #132 71% #105 0.20 #114
Second Chance 28.9% #113 1.06 #206 0.31 #143
Turnovers 17.2% #124
Total Defense +3.4 #84

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.6% #296 -0.6% #113
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.4% #171 -4.0% #103
Possession Length 16.1 #62 17.5 #204
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #90 0.16 #136
Improvement -4.1 #351 +3.9 #16

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 3.0% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.0 14.9
.500 or above 10.8% 17.3% 4.3%
.500 or above in Conference 7.6% 12.9% 2.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.8% 2.7% 8.9%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round2.4% 2.9% 1.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Iowa (Home) - 49.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 22 - 73 - 8
Quad 34 - 96 - 17
Quad 47 - 113 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 354 UMKC W 101 - 78 94% +11  1 - 0 +6 +13 A+ B+ C+ -9 B F D
 Wed, Nov 12 74 @Nevada L 81 - 86 OT 18% +1  1 - 1 +6 +4 C F+ A+ +3 A+ A+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 134 @North Dakota St. L 85 - 92 36% -4  1 - 2 -2 +5 B+ C D+ -7 D- D- C-
 Sun, Nov 23 297 Delaware W 79 - 59 79% +10  2 - 2 +12 +6 D+ A- C- +7 C+ C A+
 Mon, Nov 24 118 UAB L 73 - 81 42% -5  2 - 3 -5 +1 C- D A+ -6 C F C+
 Wed, Nov 26 103 @Memphis L 58 - 74 25% -11  2 - 4 -8 -7 F B- B- -1 C+ D B
 Sat, Nov 29 279 Arkansas Little Rock W 74 - 65 84% +1  3 - 4 -1 +3 A- D F -3 F B A
 Wed, Dec 3 96 @High Point W 86 - 84 23% -3  4 - 4 +11 +10 C- A+ B+ +1 B B- B-
 Wed, Dec 10 229 Tennessee Martin W 83 - 54 78% +15  5 - 4 +22 +10 A+ C D- +12 A- A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 121 @Richmond L 84 - 93 OT 32% -2  5 - 5 -3 -4 D B F +2 D A+ C
 Thu, Dec 18 89 Illinois St. L 68 - 75 42% +0  5 - 6 0 - 1 -4 -3 C+ B+ F -1 C+ F+ B
 Sun, Dec 21 126 @Bradley L 69 - 73 35% -4  5 - 7 0 - 2 +1 -3 D- C B- +4 B- D A+
 Mon, Dec 29 101 @Murray St. L 81 - 84 25% -7  5 - 8 0 - 3 +5 +4 D+ A+ D+ +1 D- A+ B+
 Thu, Jan 1 169 Valparaiso W 75 - 70 68% +5  6 - 8 1 - 3 +1 -3 D C A+ +4 A+ A+ D+
 Sun, Jan 4 75 @Belmont W 68 - 67 18% +0  7 - 8 2 - 3 +12 -0 B- C- F +12 C- A A+
 Wed, Jan 7 136 @Illinois-Chicago L 57 - 70 37% -8  7 - 9 2 - 4 -9 -8 B- F D- -2 A- F D-
 Wed, Jan 14 148 Drake L 73 - 76 OT 62% +4  7 - 10 2 - 5 -5 -9 F D A +4 A+ F+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 75 Belmont L 68 - 73 36% -2  7 - 11 2 - 6 -0 -3 D D C+ +3 A+ C F
 Wed, Jan 21 169 @Valparaiso L 63 - 69 45% -11  7 - 12 2 - 7 -4 -1 D C- C -4 F+ B+ C
 Wed, Jan 28 108 Northern Iowa L 63 - 64 50%
 Sat, Jan 31 136 Illinois-Chicago W 72 - 69 60%
 Tue, Feb 3 89 @Illinois St. L 67 - 75 22%
 Fri, Feb 6 101 Murray St. L 81 - 82 46%
 Mon, Feb 9 195 @Indiana St. W 75 - 74 51%
 Thu, Feb 12 270 Evansville W 75 - 65 83%
 Sun, Feb 15 126 Bradley W 74 - 72 57%
 Wed, Feb 18 148 @Drake L 70 - 73 40%
 Sat, Feb 21 108 @Northern Iowa L 60 - 66 29%
 Wed, Feb 25 195 Indiana St. W 78 - 72 71%
Totals 12 - 17 7 - 12 +1 -2 C C C +3 C+ C+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 3rd
4th 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.0 4th
5th 0.2 1.7 0.6 0.0 2.5 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 2.6 0.1 4.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.9 6.0 1.1 10.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 5.5 10.4 4.1 0.1 21.0 8th
9th 0.4 4.1 12.6 15.5 7.0 0.5 40.2 9th
10th 0.6 3.3 7.2 5.0 1.4 0.1 17.6 10th
11th 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.3 11th
Total 0.2 1.3 4.6 11.8 18.6 22.6 20.6 12.7 5.8 1.5 0.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.2% 12.2% 12.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-9 1.5% 11.7% 11.7% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.4
10-10 5.8% 6.9% 6.9% 12.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 5.4
9-11 12.7% 3.7% 3.7% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 12.3
8-12 20.6% 2.5% 2.5% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 20.1
7-13 22.6% 2.1% 2.1% 15.4 0.3 0.2 22.1
6-14 18.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3 18.3
5-15 11.8% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 11.7
4-16 4.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.6
3-17 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.3
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 14.3 97.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%