Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
40 Utah St. 66.3%   11   15 - 3 7 - 2 +12.7      +7.8 38 +5.0 56 68.5 187 +13.1 41 +11.6 4
43 New Mexico 54.9%   11   16 - 4 8 - 2 +11.8      +4.2 77 +7.6 22 75.9 31 +13.1 40 +13.1 2
46 San Diego St. 47.3%   13 - 5 8 - 1 +11.4      +4.2 78 +7.2 25 70.1 150 +11.9 49 +17.0 1
59 Boise St. 19.4%   12 - 7 5 - 5 +9.5      +4.2 76 +5.2 51 66.1 256 +9.1 69 +5.5 7
71 Grand Canyon 10.1%   13 - 7 6 - 3 +7.8      +0.2 155 +7.6 24 69.9 153 +8.2 71 +11.7 3
74 Nevada 9.7%   15 - 6 7 - 3 +7.7      +4.7 72 +3.0 93 64.1 308 +9.6 63 +11.1 5
97 Colorado St. 2.3%   11 - 8 3 - 6 +5.4      +6.3 53 -0.9 199 59.6 364 +4.7 95 +1.5 9
110 Wyoming 1.0%   11 - 8 3 - 6 +3.7      +2.6 107 +1.1 132 67.1 230 +2.1 131 -1.5 10
125 UNLV 0.8%   9 - 10 5 - 4 +2.1      +1.5 128 +0.6 144 73.8 59 +2.1 130 +6.5 6
152 Fresno St. 0.3%   8 - 11 3 - 6 +0.5      -2.7 245 +3.2 88 71.1 118 -1.0 187 +1.5 8
249 San Jose St. 0.0%   5 - 15 1 - 9 -4.8      -1.2 197 -3.6 285 62.8 331 -5.3 242 -11.9 12
347 Air Force 0.0%   3 - 17 0 - 9 -12.0      -9.0 358 -3.0 269 63.2 320 -12.0 336 -10.4 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Jan 24 74 Nevada 73 43 New Mexico 80   
Sat, Jan 24 46 San Diego St. 82 125 UNLV 71   
Sat, Jan 24 152 Fresno St. 57 71 Grand Canyon 68   
Sat, Jan 24 249 San Jose St. 62 110 Wyoming 66   
Sat, Jan 24 347 Air Force 54 59 Boise St. 96   
Tue, Jan 27 74 Nevada 66 71 Grand Canyon 60   
Tue, Jan 27 59 Boise St. 89 249 San Jose St. 58   
Tue, Jan 27 43 New Mexico 89 125 UNLV 61   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Jan 28 97 Colorado St. 67 46 San Diego St. 76 80%   
Wed, Jan 28 40 Utah St. 81 110 Wyoming 69 87%   
Fri, Jan 30 59 Boise St. 68 71 Grand Canyon 70 55%   
Fri, Jan 30 74 Nevada 79 125 UNLV 71 79%   
Sat, Jan 31 46 San Diego St. 72 40 Utah St. 77 66%   
Sat, Jan 31 97 Colorado St. 71 110 Wyoming 72 55%   
Sat, Jan 31 43 New Mexico 80 249 San Jose St. 67 89%   
Sat, Jan 31 347 Air Force 62 152 Fresno St. 71 82%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Utah St. 2.5 32.6 24.6 19.5 12.5 7.5 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
New Mexico 2.3 35.7 29.0 18.2 9.8 5.6 1.5 0.2 0.0
San Diego St. 1.9 49.0 25.4 13.7 7.1 3.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Boise St. 5.7 0.4 2.2 6.0 12.1 19.8 34.1 15.8 6.7 2.4 0.6
Grand Canyon 3.7 8.0 15.4 22.5 24.8 18.6 7.8 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
Nevada 3.8 6.6 14.0 20.2 24.6 22.4 9.1 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Colorado St. 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 5.6 18.0 28.5 22.8 14.8 7.6 0.4
Wyoming 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 5.5 13.9 22.0 29.3 26.4 1.0
UNLV 7.2 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.3 7.4 16.5 28.4 25.5 12.6 4.6 0.1
Fresno St. 8.8 0.0 0.2 0.9 4.0 10.8 19.1 30.3 33.4 1.2 0.0
San Jose St. 11.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 5.7 85.9 6.9
Air Force 11.8 0.0 0.2 18.2 81.6

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Utah St. 15 - 5 23 - 7 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.0 7.6 14.7 21.4 23.1 18.1 8.8 2.1
New Mexico 15 - 5 23 - 7 0.2 1.4 5.2 12.5 21.1 25.7 20.8 10.7 2.4
San Diego St. 15 - 5 20 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.5 8.8 17.2 22.8 23.0 15.6 6.8 1.2
Boise St. 11 - 9 18 - 11 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.0 10.2 19.4 24.7 22.4 12.9 4.5 0.7
Grand Canyon 13 - 7 20 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.1 9.1 18.2 25.7 23.6 13.9 4.8 0.8
Nevada 13 - 7 21 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.9 11.1 20.9 25.8 21.0 12.1 3.9 0.6
Colorado St. 9 - 11 17 - 13 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.5 10.1 18.5 23.4 21.8 14.1 5.7 1.5 0.2
Wyoming 8 - 12 16 - 14 0.1 1.1 5.9 14.5 22.4 24.2 18.1 9.4 3.4 0.9 0.1 0.0
UNLV 9 - 11 13 - 17 0.3 2.4 8.9 18.2 24.7 21.6 14.3 6.8 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
Fresno St. 8 - 12 13 - 17 0.1 1.2 6.6 17.0 26.7 24.4 14.9 6.8 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
San Jose St. 3 - 17 7 - 23 8.2 23.9 29.3 22.2 11.2 4.0 1.0 0.2 0.0
Air Force 1 - 19 4 - 27 34.5 38.3 19.5 6.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Utah St. 32.6% 18.3 10.3 3.2 0.7 0.1
New Mexico 35.7% 19.5 12.0 3.5 0.7 0.1
San Diego St. 49.0% 31.5 13.2 3.5 0.7 0.1
Boise St. 0.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Grand Canyon 8.0% 2.6 3.2 1.7 0.5 0.1
Nevada 6.6% 2.0 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.1
Colorado St. 0.0% 0.0
Wyoming
UNLV 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Fresno St.
San Jose St.
Air Force


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Utah St. 66.3% 27.2% 39.1% 11   0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 4.2 8.8 13.7 20.3 15.9 0.1 33.7 53.7%
New Mexico 54.9% 22.3% 32.6% 11   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 4.1 9.2 17.9 20.8 0.2 45.1 41.9%
San Diego St. 47.3% 21.4% 25.9% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.3 7.5 14.5 19.2 0.3 52.8 32.9%
Boise St. 19.4% 9.6% 9.8% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.5 5.1 11.6 0.4 0.0 80.6 10.9%
Grand Canyon 10.1% 7.9% 2.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 7.5 0.8 0.0 89.9 2.4%
Nevada 9.7% 7.4% 2.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 7.3 1.0 0.0 90.3 2.5%
Colorado St. 2.3% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0 0.1 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.7 0.2%
Wyoming 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 99.0 0.0%
UNLV 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.2 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.8 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.1 20.1 51.0 25.9 3.0 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 1.9 0.0 31.5 52.0 15.6 0.9 0.0
2nd Round 58.1% 0.7 41.9 45.6 11.6 0.9 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 14.7% 0.2 85.3 14.1 0.6 0.0
Elite Eight 4.7% 0.0 95.3 4.6 0.0
Final Four 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Final Game 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Utah St. 66.3% 13.2% 60.1% 27.4% 6.2% 2.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
New Mexico 54.9% 15.8% 47.2% 18.8% 4.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
San Diego St. 47.3% 13.0% 41.0% 15.7% 3.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Boise St. 19.4% 6.8% 15.7% 4.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grand Canyon 10.1% 1.8% 9.1% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nevada 9.7% 1.9% 8.6% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado St. 2.3% 0.1% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%