Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
43 Utah St. 51.9%   11   8 - 1 0 - 0 23 - 7 14 - 6 +11.3      +6.6 52 +4.7 56 69.7 177 +14.5 34 0.0 1
46 Boise St. 47.2%   6 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 9 14 - 6 +11.0      +4.0 80 +7.0 24 65.8 280 +12.6 44 0.0 1
52 San Diego St. 33.2%   5 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 10 13 - 7 +10.4      +5.8 59 +4.5 61 70.8 151 +7.2 83 0.0 1
69 Colorado St. 16.0%   8 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 10 12 - 8 +7.9      +8.6 24 -0.7 189 60.7 357 +8.2 74 0.0 1
74 New Mexico 18.6%   7 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 10 12 - 8 +7.7      +3.9 81 +3.8 68 77.6 25 +12.0 50 0.0 1
91 Grand Canyon 5.7%   6 - 4 0 - 0 18 - 13 11 - 9 +5.7      +1.0 139 +4.7 54 69.7 178 +1.9 139 0.0 1
97 Wyoming 4.7%   7 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 10 +5.1      +2.8 110 +2.2 104 71.1 140 +4.7 107 0.0 1
99 Nevada 4.9%   8 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 13 10 - 10 +5.0      +3.2 96 +1.8 114 64.9 299 +7.6 79 0.0 1
141 UNLV 0.9%   4 - 6 0 - 0 12 - 18 8 - 12 +1.4      +1.0 140 +0.4 152 77.0 31 -2.7 210 0.0 1
184 Fresno St. 0.2%   5 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 19 6 - 14 -1.6      -1.3 200 -0.3 172 73.1 81 -3.2 216 0.0 1
188 San Jose St. 0.2%   4 - 6 0 - 0 10 - 20 6 - 14 -1.7      +0.7 146 -2.4 254 63.9 318 -2.5 208 0.0 1
324 Air Force 0.0%   3 - 8 0 - 0 5 - 26 2 - 18 -9.7      -7.0 340 -2.7 261 62.5 341 -10.3 314 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 10 74 New Mexico 81 48 Virginia Commonwealth 78   
Wed, Dec 10 222 Cal St. Northridge 89 184 Fresno St. 87   
Wed, Dec 10 224 Lamar 71 52 San Diego St. 89   
Wed, Dec 10 46 Boise St. 86 137 Duquesne 64   
Sat, Dec 13 90 Illinois St. 78 43 Utah St. 83   
Sat, Dec 13 137 Duquesne 75 99 Nevada 78   
Sat, Dec 13 188 San Jose St. 82 93 Stanford 86   
Sat, Dec 13 236 Tennessee St. 63 141 UNLV 60   
Sat, Dec 13 243 Coastal Carolina 61 91 Grand Canyon 82   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 14 46 Boise St. 66 38 St. Mary's 68 55%   
Sun, Dec 14 181 Florida Gulf Coast 75 74 New Mexico 87 87%   
Mon, Dec 15 158 South Dakota St. 73 97 Wyoming 77 68%   
Wed, Dec 17 324 Air Force 58 52 San Diego St. 81 97%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Utah St. 2.9 32.6 20.6 15.2 10.7 7.7 5.3 3.9 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Boise St. 3.2 28.4 20.2 15.2 11.5 8.4 6.2 4.6 3.0 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
San Diego St. 3.3 25.3 19.6 15.6 12.0 9.6 7.0 5.0 3.4 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
Colorado St. 4.3 13.2 14.8 14.7 14.0 12.9 10.3 8.4 5.8 3.6 1.6 0.5 0.1
New Mexico 4.5 11.4 13.4 14.5 13.8 12.9 11.3 9.1 6.7 4.1 2.0 0.7 0.1
Grand Canyon 5.5 5.7 8.2 10.6 12.4 12.9 13.4 12.5 10.6 7.6 4.3 1.7 0.2
Wyoming 6.0 4.0 6.3 8.4 10.4 12.4 13.3 13.9 12.6 10.0 5.9 2.5 0.3
Nevada 5.9 3.9 6.5 8.9 11.0 12.7 14.0 13.9 12.4 9.1 5.1 2.3 0.2
UNLV 8.1 0.6 1.3 2.4 4.1 5.9 8.8 11.5 15.3 19.6 17.1 11.3 1.9
Fresno St. 9.3 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.5 4.2 6.7 10.7 17.1 24.6 26.0 5.8
San Jose St. 9.4 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.9 6.5 10.6 16.7 24.7 26.8 6.2
Air Force 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.6 5.6 17.9 74.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Utah St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.5 4.7 7.2 10.1 13.0 14.3 14.9 12.9 9.3 5.7 2.4 0.5
Boise St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.7 5.6 7.8 11.1 13.4 14.3 13.9 11.7 8.2 4.7 1.9 0.4
San Diego St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.9 6.3 9.1 11.8 13.6 14.4 13.4 10.9 7.3 3.9 1.5 0.3
Colorado St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 4.4 6.9 9.8 12.8 14.1 14.2 12.3 9.5 6.4 3.5 1.5 0.4 0.1
New Mexico 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.0 5.1 7.8 10.6 13.2 14.2 13.8 11.6 8.7 5.3 2.9 1.2 0.4 0.0
Grand Canyon 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.0 5.4 8.6 11.4 13.5 13.9 13.2 11.1 8.0 5.0 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Wyoming 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.3 4.7 7.2 10.2 12.5 14.4 13.9 11.6 9.0 6.0 3.7 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Nevada 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.9 6.9 9.8 12.6 14.7 14.0 12.4 9.8 6.6 3.5 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
UNLV 8 - 12 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.5 5.5 8.9 12.1 14.5 14.5 13.1 10.5 7.6 4.8 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fresno St. 6 - 14 0.2 1.1 3.8 7.6 11.9 14.6 16.0 14.4 11.5 8.2 5.2 2.9 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 6 - 14 0.2 1.2 4.1 7.6 12.1 15.2 15.6 14.2 11.4 8.0 5.1 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Air Force 2 - 18 13.2 23.9 24.4 18.1 10.8 5.5 2.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Utah St. 32.6% 22.4 7.9 1.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Boise St. 28.4% 18.7 7.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
San Diego St. 25.3% 16.7 6.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Colorado St. 13.2% 7.6 4.0 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
New Mexico 11.4% 6.5 3.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Grand Canyon 5.7% 3.0 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wyoming 4.0% 2.0 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Nevada 3.9% 1.8 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
UNLV 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fresno St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Air Force


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Utah St. 51.9% 24.1% 27.8% 11   0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.8 3.9 5.5 8.3 12.9 14.5 0.7 0.0 0.0 48.1 36.6%
Boise St. 47.2% 22.1% 25.1% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.4 3.7 5.6 8.1 11.7 12.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 52.8 32.2%
San Diego St. 33.2% 19.4% 13.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.7 2.5 4.6 8.2 12.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 66.8 17.1%
Colorado St. 16.0% 10.4% 5.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.4 3.1 8.6 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 84.0 6.3%
New Mexico 18.6% 9.4% 9.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.1 4.6 8.8 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 81.4 10.1%
Grand Canyon 5.7% 5.2% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 2.9 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 94.3 0.6%
Wyoming 4.7% 4.0% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.3 0.8%
Nevada 4.9% 4.1% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 2.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 95.1 0.9%
UNLV 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.1 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Utah St. 51.9% 10.1% 46.7% 22.1% 5.9% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Boise St. 47.2% 8.5% 42.9% 20.3% 5.1% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
San Diego St. 33.2% 6.1% 30.3% 13.4% 3.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Colorado St. 16.0% 3.4% 14.2% 4.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico 18.6% 5.0% 15.9% 5.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Grand Canyon 5.7% 0.4% 5.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 4.7% 0.6% 4.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nevada 4.9% 0.6% 4.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 0.9% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.8 34.2 49.4 15.2 1.2 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.7 0.0 44.6 45.6 9.4 0.5
2nd Round 57.8% 0.7 42.2 46.5 10.6 0.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 16.3% 0.2 83.7 15.6 0.7 0.0
Elite Eight 5.3% 0.1 94.7 5.3 0.0
Final Four 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4 0.0
Final Game 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1