Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +12.7 #40
Expected Predictive Rating +13.1 #41
Pace 68.5 #187
Improvement -1.6 #262

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #38 B A C+ C+ B+
Defense #56 B C A C B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #20 1.26 #75 +6.7 #14
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #323 0.80 #111 -2.6 #306
Three Pointers 41% #177 1.08 #91 +1.4 #133
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #45 +5.5 #45
Freethrows 0.31 #149 73% #147 0.23 #141
Second Chance 37.7% #19 1.24 #16 0.47 #10
Turnovers 15.3% #114
Total Offense +7.8 #38

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #317 1.05 #61 +4.9 #42
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #60 0.70 #82 -0.8 #244
Three Pointers 42% #145 0.99 #141 -0.1 #177
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #61 +4.0 #61
Freethrows 0.31 #220 72% #181 0.23 #220
Second Chance 31.4% #219 1.03 #159 0.32 #195
Turnovers 21.7% #7
Total Defense +5.0 #56

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.0% #23 -1.8% #50
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.4% #66 -6.2% #70
Possession Length 16.3 #79 18.3 #311
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 #14 0.14 #78
Improvement +1.0 #130 -2.6 #318

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 3.4% 3.7% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 66.3% 68.0% 55.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 53.7% 55.5% 42.7%
Average Seed 9.3 9.3 9.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.9% 99.0%
Conference Champion 32.6% 35.2% 14.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four13.2% 13.0% 14.4%
First Round60.1% 61.8% 48.6%
Second Round27.4% 28.6% 19.6%
Sweet Sixteen6.2% 6.5% 4.1%
Elite Eight2.1% 2.2% 1.4%
Final Four0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wyoming (Home) - 87.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b3 - 23 - 3
Quad 28 - 310 - 6
Quad 39 - 120 - 7
Quad 45 - 025 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 51 Virginia Commonwealth W 80 - 77 59% +8  1 - 0 +13 +4 C- A+ F +10 B- A A+
 Wed, Nov 12 215 Weber St. W 83 - 73 95% +4  2 - 0 +4 +5 D- B+ A+ -1 A+ F B-
 Sat, Nov 15 256 UTEP W 75 - 51 96% +12  3 - 0 +16 +1 C- B F +15 A+ C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 174 Tulane W 96 - 75 90% +6  4 - 0 +20 +24 A+ B B+ -4 F+ C A-
 Sun, Nov 23 133 Davidson W 94 - 60 85% +17  5 - 0 +36 +22 A+ B+ D- +13 A+ C A+
 Sat, Nov 29 157 Montana St. W 84 - 81 OT 92% +3  6 - 0 +0 +1 C+ C- B -2 B- C+ A
 Thu, Dec 4 69 @South Florida L 61 - 74 56% -15  6 - 1 -2 -7 D- D C- +6 C- A+ A+
 Sun, Dec 7 172 @Charlotte W 79 - 53 84% +11  7 - 1 +28 +12 C+ D+ A+ +19 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 89 Illinois St. W 83 - 78 74% +6  8 - 1 +11 +17 A+ A+ F -6 F+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 97 Colorado St. W 100 - 58 83% +24  9 - 1 1 - 0 +44 +35 A+ A+ C +14 A+ B+ A+
 Tue, Dec 30 152 @Fresno St. W 72 - 63 81% +7  10 - 1 2 - 0 +13 -2 B D F +14 A A+ A
 Sat, Jan 3 249 San Jose St. W 96 - 78 96% +1  11 - 1 3 - 0 +10 +26 A+ A+ A+ -15 F+ C+ C-
 Tue, Jan 6 347 @Air Force W 99 - 62 97% +20  12 - 1 4 - 0 +28 +31 B A+ A+ -0 C+ D- C-
 Sat, Jan 10 59 @Boise St. W 93 - 68 51% +19  13 - 1 5 - 0 +37 +33 A A+ A- +6 A+ F+ B
 Wed, Jan 14 74 Nevada W 71 - 62 78% +3  14 - 1 6 - 0 +14 +4 B D+ C +10 C+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 71 @Grand Canyon L 74 - 84 58% -5  14 - 2 6 - 1 +1 +15 C- A+ A+ -15 F D+ C
 Tue, Jan 20 125 UNLV L 76 - 86 89% +3  14 - 3 6 - 2 -11 +4 C- C+ A+ -15 D+ F C+
 Fri, Jan 23 97 @Colorado St. W 65 - 61 66% -4  15 - 3 7 - 2 +12 +1 C+ D+ C +12 B- F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 110 Wyoming W 81 - 69 87%
 Sat, Jan 31 46 San Diego St. W 76 - 72 66%
 Wed, Feb 4 43 @New Mexico L 76 - 78 42%
 Sat, Feb 7 110 @Wyoming W 78 - 72 72%
 Tue, Feb 10 152 Fresno St. W 81 - 66 92%
 Sat, Feb 14 103 Memphis W 79 - 68 84%
 Wed, Feb 18 59 Boise St. W 76 - 70 72%
 Sat, Feb 21 74 @Nevada W 74 - 72 58%
 Wed, Feb 25 46 @San Diego St. L 73 - 75 44%
 Sat, Feb 28 71 Grand Canyon W 76 - 68 77%
 Tue, Mar 3 125 @UNLV W 82 - 74 76%
 Sat, Mar 7 43 New Mexico W 79 - 75 64%
Totals 23 - 7 15 - 5 +13 +8 B A C+ +5 B C A




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 6.9 14.2 8.7 2.1 32.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 6.9 13.1 3.9 0.1 24.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 5.0 10.8 3.1 0.0 19.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 2.6 7.0 2.8 0.0 12.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 3.8 2.1 0.2 7.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.7 0.0 2.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.0 7.6 14.7 21.4 23.1 18.1 8.8 2.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 2.1    2.1
17-3 98.5% 8.7    7.7 1.0
16-4 78.3% 14.2    7.2 6.1 0.8
15-5 29.9% 6.9    1.2 3.1 2.2 0.5 0.0
14-6 3.1% 0.7    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 32.6% 32.6 18.3 10.3 3.2 0.7 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 2.1% 98.6% 44.9% 53.7% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.4%
17-3 8.8% 94.9% 41.3% 53.6% 7.8 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.9 2.3 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.5 91.3%
16-4 18.1% 87.5% 35.9% 51.7% 8.9 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.7 4.9 4.1 1.2 2.3 80.6%
15-5 23.1% 75.6% 27.9% 47.7% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.0 4.3 7.2 3.6 0.0 5.7 66.1%
14-6 21.4% 61.0% 23.7% 37.4% 10.2 0.0 0.4 2.1 5.3 5.1 0.0 8.3 48.9%
13-7 14.7% 45.0% 20.5% 24.5% 10.5 0.1 0.4 2.3 3.8 0.0 8.1 30.8%
12-8 7.6% 29.2% 15.3% 13.9% 10.7 0.1 0.5 1.6 0.0 5.4 16.4%
11-9 3.0% 16.8% 9.6% 7.3% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 2.5 8.0%
10-10 1.0% 13.4% 10.0% 3.5% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9 3.9%
9-11 0.1% 7.4% 7.4% 11.0 0.0 0.1
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 66.3% 27.2% 39.1% 9.3 33.7 53.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 4.4 2.8 12.9 40.4 29.2 12.4 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 98.7% 6.5 3.9 9.2 32.9 39.5 9.2 2.6 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 96.2% 6.6 2.5 15.2 21.5 35.4 19.0 1.3 1.3