Grand Canyon
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.8 #71
Expected Predictive Rating +8.2 #71
Pace 69.9 #153
Improvement +3.3 #42

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #155 C- C+ C B- C+
Defense #24 A- B B- C- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #90 1.19 #133 +2.7 #95
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #204 0.66 #312 -1.4 #251
Three Pointers 39% #226 0.93 #279 -2.7 #281
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #222 -1.4 #222
Freethrows 0.32 #140 76% #53 0.24 #107
Second Chance 34.2% #79 1.00 #239 0.34 #124
Turnovers 16.6% #188
Total Offense +0.2 #155

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #269 1.02 #36 +4.3 #53
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #40 0.76 #176 -2.2 #334
Three Pointers 38% #257 0.83 #7 +5.0 #18
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #15 +7.1 #15
Freethrows 0.33 #275 70% #76 0.23 #245
Second Chance 24.7% #21 1.08 #231 0.27 #59
Turnovers 17.9% #86
Total Defense +7.6 #24

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #135 -1.9% #45
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.6% #238 -12.2% #16
Possession Length 17.8 #224 16.9 #111
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #181 0.16 #142
Improvement -0.4 #200 +3.7 #17

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.1% 12.7% 7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.4% 3.6% 1.1%
Average Seed 10.9 10.8 11.0
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 99.2% 99.9% 98.3%
Conference Champion 8.0% 12.1% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.8% 2.5% 0.9%
First Round9.1% 11.2% 6.5%
Second Round2.2% 2.9% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boise St. (Home) - 54.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 6
Quad 25 - 37 - 9
Quad 35 - 211 - 11
Quad 410 - 121 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 218 Purdue Fort Wayne W 90 - 71 90% +15  1 - 0 +13 +7 A- B- C +4 B+ C B
 Fri, Nov 7 222 Youngstown St. L 81 - 90 90% -3  1 - 1 -16 +3 D A+ C -18 D D- F
 Mon, Nov 10 310 Northern Illinois W 88 - 59 95% +17  2 - 1 +17 +9 C+ A+ F+ +8 A D A+
 Sat, Nov 15 26 @Saint Louis L 64 - 78 16% -11  2 - 2 +4 -3 D- D C +9 B+ B+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 267 Northwestern St. W 85 - 72 93% +8  3 - 2 +4 +7 C C+ C -3 D A+ D
 Tue, Nov 25 104 Utah W 68 - 58 62% +6  4 - 2 +15 -3 F D A+ +18 A+ C A+
 Wed, Nov 26 23 Iowa L 46 - 59 21% -6  4 - 3 +3 -11 C+ F F +12 A+ C+ A
 Tue, Dec 2 330 Stetson W 67 - 45 96% +4  5 - 3 +9 -9 F C F +19 A+ B A+
 Sat, Dec 6 63 Oklahoma St. L 78 - 84 46% -2  5 - 4 +3 +8 D A- A+ -5 D- A B+
 Sat, Dec 13 237 Coastal Carolina W 82 - 61 91% +19  6 - 4 +14 +10 D+ A+ A- +5 B B+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 110 @Wyoming W 82 - 70 54% +14  7 - 4 1 - 0 +19 +8 A+ D+ F +10 A+ C- C
 Mon, Dec 22 340 IU Indianapolis W 91 - 78 97% +8  8 - 4 -1 +3 C B D+ -5 C F A
 Sat, Jan 3 97 Colorado St. L 60 - 70 70% -10  8 - 5 1 - 1 -8 -8 F C+ C- -1 A A- B
 Wed, Jan 7 59 @Boise St. W 75 - 58 32% +7  9 - 5 2 - 1 +29 +11 A C- C- +19 A+ A+ A
 Sat, Jan 10 249 San Jose St. W 76 - 58 92% +14  10 - 5 3 - 1 +10 -2 C+ C D+ +12 B+ A A
 Tue, Jan 13 43 @New Mexico L 64 - 87 25% -9  10 - 6 3 - 2 -8 -3 D- F+ A+ -5 F A C+
 Sat, Jan 17 40 Utah St. W 84 - 74 42% +5  11 - 6 4 - 2 +20 +20 A+ B- A+ +0 A+ C- F+
 Wed, Jan 21 46 San Diego St. W 70 - 69 47% +2  12 - 6 5 - 2 +9 +2 C+ D- F+ +7 A+ B D+
 Sat, Jan 24 152 @Fresno St. W 68 - 57 66% +5  13 - 6 6 - 2 +15 +4 F A+ B- +11 A+ A+ C
 Tue, Jan 27 74 @Nevada L 60 - 66 OT 39% +2  13 - 7 6 - 3 +5 -10 D- D+ F+ +15 A+ B C
 Fri, Jan 30 59 Boise St. W 70 - 69 54%
 Tue, Feb 3 347 Air Force W 77 - 54 98%
 Sat, Feb 7 125 @UNLV W 75 - 72 60%
 Wed, Feb 11 43 New Mexico L 72 - 73 46%
 Sat, Feb 14 249 @San Jose St. W 74 - 64 82%
 Tue, Feb 17 46 @San Diego St. L 67 - 74 26%
 Sat, Feb 21 110 Wyoming W 74 - 67 74%
 Wed, Feb 25 125 UNLV W 78 - 69 79%
 Sat, Feb 28 40 @Utah St. L 68 - 76 23%
 Tue, Mar 3 347 @Air Force W 74 - 57 94%
 Sat, Mar 7 152 Fresno St. W 74 - 64 83%
Totals 20 - 11 13 - 7 +8 +0 C- C+ C +8 A- B B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.3 3.4 0.8 8.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 5.8 7.8 1.4 15.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 6.8 12.3 2.7 0.0 22.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 5.9 13.6 4.8 0.1 24.8 4th
5th 0.2 3.8 9.6 4.7 0.2 18.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 4.1 2.0 0.1 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.7 0.0 2.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.1 9.1 18.2 25.7 23.6 13.9 4.8 0.8 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.8    0.7 0.1
16-4 70.9% 3.4    1.5 1.6 0.3 0.0
15-5 23.5% 3.3    0.4 1.4 1.2 0.3 0.0
14-6 2.1% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.0% 8.0 2.6 3.2 1.7 0.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.8% 53.0% 19.0% 33.9% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 41.9%
16-4 4.8% 31.7% 16.3% 15.4% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 3.3 18.4%
15-5 13.9% 17.8% 12.4% 5.4% 10.8 0.1 0.4 1.9 0.1 11.4 6.1%
14-6 23.6% 11.0% 9.3% 1.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.2 0.2 21.0 1.8%
13-7 25.7% 6.8% 6.5% 0.3% 11.1 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 23.9 0.3%
12-8 18.2% 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 11.2 0.0 0.7 0.2 17.2 0.0%
11-9 9.1% 3.7% 3.7% 0.1% 11.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.7 0.1%
10-10 3.1% 1.6% 1.6% 11.6 0.0 0.0 3.1
9-11 0.7% 1.4% 1.4% 12.0 0.0 0.7
8-12 0.1% 0.0 0.1
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.1% 7.9% 2.3% 10.9 89.9 2.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 8.4 9.4 9.4 37.5 21.9 18.8 3.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 53.2% 10.4 2.1 27.7 23.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 37.5% 10.0 7.8 21.9 7.8