San Diego St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +11.4 #46
Expected Predictive Rating +11.9 #49
Pace 70.1 #150
Improvement +2.6 #71

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #78 B C+ C C+ D
Defense #25 B B B+ C B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #205 1.35 #16 +3.1 #82
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #40 0.68 #302 +1.9 #82
Three Pointers 34% #318 1.18 #13 -0.8 #210
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #63 +4.2 #63
Freethrows 0.31 #160 76% #66 0.24 #124
Second Chance 32.4% #133 1.11 #93 0.36 #92
Turnovers 16.2% #160
Total Offense +4.2 #78

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #354 1.07 #71 +7.1 #13
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #216 0.55 #3 +2.5 #21
Three Pointers 52% #5 0.98 #120 -4.7 #336
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #46 +4.9 #46
Freethrows 0.30 #169 75% #310 0.22 #196
Second Chance 26.3% #44 0.99 #103 0.26 #48
Turnovers 20.0% #25
Total Defense +7.2 #25

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.2% #311 -1.0% #89
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.6% #36 -8.6% #39
Possession Length 16.1 #61 18.1 #299
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #93 0.12 #32
Improvement -0.4 #202 +3.0 #33

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.0% 1.2% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 47.3% 50.0% 36.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 32.9% 35.6% 22.6%
Average Seed 9.9 9.9 10.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 49.0% 53.7% 30.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four13.0% 13.5% 11.3%
First Round41.0% 43.6% 30.4%
Second Round15.7% 17.1% 10.0%
Sweet Sixteen3.3% 3.6% 2.1%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.2% 0.5%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado St. (Home) - 80.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 5
Quad 27 - 39 - 8
Quad 36 - 215 - 9
Quad 46 - 022 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 251 Long Beach St. W 77 - 45 95% +13  1 - 0 +24 -1 D+ A+ F +25 A+ B+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 225 Idaho St. W 73 - 57 94% +11  2 - 0 +9 +5 A+ F F +6 C B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 115 Troy L 107 - 108 2OT 85% -3  2 - 1 -1 +10 C+ A- F -10 B D- D
 Mon, Nov 24 1 Michigan L 54 - 94 11% -18  2 - 2 -15 -10 C F F -3 B+ F B-
 Tue, Nov 25 72 Oregon W 97 - 80 64% +10  3 - 2 +25 +27 A+ A+ F -3 D A+ C+
 Wed, Nov 26 45 Baylor L 81 - 91 50% -4  3 - 3 +2 +10 B+ D- B- -8 D- A+ D+
 Wed, Dec 3 109 Utah Valley W 77 - 66 84% +6  4 - 3 +12 +5 C B+ C+ +6 B B+ A+
 Wed, Dec 10 207 Lamar W 89 - 71 94% +10  5 - 3 +12 +7 B- C C+ +3 C- A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 347 Air Force W 81 - 58 98% +8  6 - 3 1 - 0 +8 +11 B A D -1 C+ D- B
 Sat, Dec 20 2 Arizona L 45 - 68 12% -5  6 - 4 +1 -11 F D- A+ +9 A+ C+ B+
 Tue, Dec 30 249 @San Jose St. W 81 - 68 89% +4  7 - 4 2 - 0 +11 +3 C+ A- D +8 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 59 Boise St. W 110 - 107 3OT 68% +6  8 - 4 3 - 0 +9 +11 A A- B- -3 C+ A+ B
 Tue, Jan 6 74 @Nevada W 73 - 68 53% -2  9 - 4 4 - 0 +16 +11 C+ A+ D- +5 A+ F C+
 Sat, Jan 10 152 Fresno St. W 71 - 52 90% +15  10 - 4 5 - 0 +17 -4 F A+ B+ +19 A+ A+ A-
 Wed, Jan 14 110 @Wyoming W 74 - 57 67% +11  11 - 4 6 - 0 +24 +9 B C- A +16 A+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 43 New Mexico W 83 - 79 60% +3  12 - 4 7 - 0 +13 +8 A C- C +5 B+ B- A+
 Wed, Jan 21 71 @Grand Canyon L 69 - 70 53% -2  12 - 5 7 - 1 +10 +5 D+ C+ A- +5 C+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 125 @UNLV W 82 - 71 73% +4  13 - 5 8 - 1 +16 +14 A+ F C +3 D B+ B
 Wed, Jan 28 97 Colorado St. W 76 - 67 80%
 Sat, Jan 31 40 @Utah St. L 72 - 76 34%
 Tue, Feb 3 110 Wyoming W 79 - 68 84%
 Sat, Feb 7 347 @Air Force W 77 - 57 97%
 Sat, Feb 14 74 Nevada W 75 - 68 73%
 Tue, Feb 17 71 Grand Canyon W 74 - 67 74%
 Sat, Feb 21 97 @Colorado St. W 73 - 70 61%
 Wed, Feb 25 40 Utah St. W 75 - 73 56%
 Sat, Feb 28 43 @New Mexico L 74 - 77 38%
 Tue, Mar 3 59 @Boise St. L 71 - 72 46%
 Fri, Mar 6 125 UNLV W 82 - 70 87%
Totals 20 - 9 15 - 5 +11 +4 B C+ C +7 B B B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 7.5 17.6 15.2 6.8 1.2 49.0 1st
2nd 0.4 6.4 12.9 5.4 0.3 25.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.0 8.1 2.5 0.0 13.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 4.1 1.9 0.0 7.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.9 1.3 0.1 3.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.5 8.8 17.2 22.8 23.0 15.6 6.8 1.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2
18-2 100.0% 6.8    6.7 0.1
17-3 97.9% 15.2    13.0 2.3 0.0
16-4 76.5% 17.6    9.2 7.5 0.9 0.0
15-5 32.7% 7.5    1.3 3.3 2.4 0.5 0.0
14-6 4.1% 0.7    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 49.0% 49.0 31.5 13.2 3.5 0.7 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 1.2% 94.7% 35.4% 59.3% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 91.8%
18-2 6.8% 87.1% 33.5% 53.6% 8.6 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.3 0.3 0.9 80.6%
17-3 15.6% 72.1% 27.6% 44.6% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.9 4.3 2.4 4.3 61.5%
16-4 23.0% 55.2% 24.4% 30.8% 10.2 0.0 0.5 1.8 4.8 5.6 0.0 10.3 40.7%
15-5 22.8% 42.1% 20.9% 21.2% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.8 5.8 0.1 13.2 26.8%
14-6 17.2% 27.9% 15.5% 12.3% 10.7 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.5 0.1 12.4 14.6%
13-7 8.8% 16.2% 11.0% 5.2% 10.9 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.0 7.3 5.8%
12-8 3.5% 10.7% 8.7% 2.0% 11.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 3.1 2.2%
11-9 0.9% 6.7% 6.7% 11.1 0.1 0.0 0.8
10-10 0.2% 0.2
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 47.3% 21.4% 25.9% 9.9 52.8 32.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 5.2 3.4 19.5 36.8 31.0 9.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 94.9% 7.4 1.7 1.7 15.3 30.5 30.5 15.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 94.8% 7.9 1.7 8.6 20.7 29.3 31.0 3.4