San Diego St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.4#52
Expected Predictive Rating+7.2#83
Pace70.8#151
Improvement-0.4#212

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#59
First Shot+5.9#39
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#184
Layup/Dunks+2.7#88
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#117
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#123
Freethrows+0.4#153
Improvement+1.0#98

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#61
First Shot+1.0#132
After Offensive Rebounds+3.5#13
Layups/Dunks+3.5#62
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#18
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.7#344
Freethrows+0.6#141
Improvement-1.4#285
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.9% 1.9% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.2% 33.5% 16.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 17.1% 17.3% 5.7%
Average Seed 9.8 9.7 10.5
.500 or above 93.5% 93.8% 78.3%
.500 or above in Conference 92.5% 92.7% 75.3%
Conference Champion 25.3% 25.6% 9.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.9%
First Four6.1% 6.1% 3.1%
First Round30.3% 30.5% 15.5%
Second Round13.4% 13.5% 6.1%
Sweet Sixteen3.3% 3.3% 1.3%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.1% 0.7%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Home) - 98.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 5
Quad 26 - 37 - 9
Quad 37 - 214 - 11
Quad 46 - 120 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 279 Long Beach St. W 77-45 96%     1 - 0 +22.8 -2.8 +25.0
  Sun, Nov 9 162 Idaho St. W 73-57 89%     2 - 0 +12.9 +8.7 +6.4
  Tue, Nov 18 147 Troy L 107-108 2OT 88%     2 - 1 -3.3 +10.7 -13.7
  Mon, Nov 24 1 Michigan L 54-94 7%     2 - 2 -13.1 -8.6 -1.6
  Tue, Nov 25 66 Oregon W 97-80 58%     3 - 2 +25.3 +27.0 -1.8
  Wed, Nov 26 32 Baylor L 81-91 39%     3 - 3 +3.3 +10.7 -7.4
  Wed, Dec 3 84 Utah Valley W 77-66 74%     4 - 3 +14.8 +8.2 +6.6
  Wed, Dec 10 224 Lamar W 89-71 93%     5 - 3 +11.3 +9.5 +0.4
  Wed, Dec 17 324 Air Force W 81-58 98%    
  Sat, Dec 20 3 Arizona L 73-85 13%    
  Tue, Dec 30 188 @San Jose St. W 78-69 80%    
  Sat, Jan 3 46 Boise St. W 73-71 59%    
  Tue, Jan 6 99 @Nevada W 74-72 59%    
  Sat, Jan 10 184 Fresno St. W 84-69 91%    
  Wed, Jan 14 97 @Wyoming W 77-75 58%    
  Sat, Jan 17 74 New Mexico W 82-76 70%    
  Wed, Jan 21 91 @Grand Canyon W 74-72 56%    
  Sat, Jan 24 141 @UNLV W 82-76 71%    
  Wed, Jan 28 69 Colorado St. W 77-72 69%    
  Sat, Jan 31 43 @Utah St. L 74-78 36%    
  Tue, Feb 3 97 Wyoming W 80-72 77%    
  Sat, Feb 7 324 @Air Force W 78-61 94%    
  Sat, Feb 14 99 Nevada W 77-69 77%    
  Tue, Feb 17 91 Grand Canyon W 77-69 75%    
  Sat, Feb 21 69 @Colorado St. L 74-75 48%    
  Wed, Feb 25 43 Utah St. W 77-75 57%    
  Sat, Feb 28 74 @New Mexico L 79-80 49%    
  Tue, Mar 3 46 @Boise St. L 70-74 37%    
  Fri, Mar 6 141 UNLV W 85-73 86%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 4.6 7.3 6.5 3.8 1.5 0.3 25.3 1st
2nd 0.2 2.0 6.1 7.0 3.5 0.8 0.1 19.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.7 6.1 5.8 1.7 0.2 0.0 15.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.9 4.4 1.2 0.1 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.7 4.1 0.9 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.2 0.9 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.3 0.8 0.1 5.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.5 0.6 0.0 3.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.9 6.3 9.1 11.8 13.6 14.4 13.4 10.9 7.3 3.9 1.5 0.3 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.5    1.5 0.0
18-2 97.8% 3.8    3.6 0.2
17-3 88.6% 6.5    5.2 1.2 0.0
16-4 66.5% 7.3    4.3 2.6 0.3 0.0
15-5 34.6% 4.6    1.5 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-6 8.8% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 25.3% 25.3 16.7 6.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 69.7% 30.3% 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.5% 96.0% 47.8% 48.2% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 92.3%
18-2 3.9% 90.1% 42.6% 47.5% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.4 82.7%
17-3 7.3% 76.3% 37.7% 38.5% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 1.7 0.7 0.0 1.7 61.9%
16-4 10.9% 60.5% 29.4% 31.1% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.5 2.1 0.0 4.3 44.1%
15-5 13.4% 43.5% 24.6% 19.0% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 3.0 0.1 7.5 25.1%
14-6 14.4% 31.8% 21.4% 10.5% 10.7 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.1 0.1 9.8 13.3%
13-7 13.6% 19.2% 14.7% 4.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.0 0.2 11.0 5.2%
12-8 11.8% 12.4% 10.9% 1.6% 11.1 0.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 10.3 1.7%
11-9 9.1% 8.4% 7.8% 0.6% 11.3 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 8.4 0.7%
10-10 6.3% 4.7% 4.7% 0.1% 11.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.0 0.1%
9-11 3.9% 4.0% 4.0% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.7
8-12 2.1% 1.6% 1.6% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
7-13 1.0% 3.7% 3.7% 15.1 0.0 0.0 1.0
6-14 0.4% 0.8% 0.8% 15.0 0.0 0.4
5-15 0.1% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 33.2% 19.4% 13.8% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.7 2.5 4.6 8.2 12.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 66.8 17.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.0 17.4 8.7 43.5 21.7 8.7