UNLV
Mountain West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#141
Expected Predictive Rating-2.7#210
Pace77.0#31
Improvement-2.2#314

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#140
First Shot+1.4#138
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#204
Layup/Dunks+3.7#65
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#177
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#305
Freethrows+1.8#85
Improvement-4.7#364

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#152
First Shot+2.5#95
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#309
Layups/Dunks+0.9#143
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#310
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#26
Freethrows-1.8#294
Improvement+2.5#27
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.1% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.3 13.1
.500 or above 16.0% 19.7% 6.6%
.500 or above in Conference 27.8% 33.5% 13.5%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.9% 2.0% 8.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.9% 1.1% 0.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fresno St. (Home) - 71.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 23 - 64 - 11
Quad 33 - 58 - 15
Quad 45 - 413 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 251 Tennessee Martin L 81-86 82%     0 - 1 -13.1 -4.4 -8.1
  Sat, Nov 8 225 Chattanooga W 101-69 78%     1 - 1 +25.3 +25.9 +0.5
  Tue, Nov 11 205 Montana L 93-102 76%     1 - 2 -14.9 +3.2 -16.9
  Sun, Nov 16 76 @Memphis W 92-78 19%     2 - 2 +24.6 +14.0 +8.9
  Thu, Nov 20 171 Saint Joseph's W 99-85 70%     3 - 2 +10.0 +13.8 -5.5
  Mon, Nov 24 94 Maryland L 67-74 35%     3 - 3 -1.5 -6.1 +4.9
  Tue, Nov 25 15 Alabama L 76-115 7%     3 - 4 -21.4 +0.0 -17.1
  Thu, Nov 27 133 Rutgers L 65-80 49%     3 - 5 -13.3 -5.8 -7.6
  Sun, Dec 7 93 @Stanford W 75-74 24%     4 - 5 +9.6 +3.7 +5.8
  Sat, Dec 13 236 Tennessee St. L 60-63 79%     4 - 6 -10.1 -14.1 +4.1
  Sat, Dec 20 184 Fresno St. W 82-76 71%    
  Sat, Jan 3 324 Air Force W 78-64 91%    
  Tue, Jan 6 97 @Wyoming L 76-83 27%    
  Fri, Jan 9 69 @Colorado St. L 72-82 19%    
  Tue, Jan 13 46 Boise St. L 71-78 27%    
  Sat, Jan 17 188 @San Jose St. W 76-75 50%    
  Tue, Jan 20 43 @Utah St. L 73-86 12%    
  Sat, Jan 24 52 San Diego St. L 76-82 29%    
  Tue, Jan 27 74 New Mexico L 81-84 38%    
  Fri, Jan 30 99 @Nevada L 72-79 27%    
  Tue, Feb 3 184 @Fresno St. L 79-80 49%    
  Sat, Feb 7 91 Grand Canyon L 76-77 45%    
  Tue, Feb 10 188 San Jose St. W 79-73 71%    
  Fri, Feb 13 46 @Boise St. L 68-81 13%    
  Wed, Feb 18 69 Colorado St. L 75-79 38%    
  Sat, Feb 21 324 @Air Force W 75-67 77%    
  Wed, Feb 25 91 @Grand Canyon L 73-80 25%    
  Sat, Feb 28 99 Nevada L 75-76 47%    
  Tue, Mar 3 43 Utah St. L 76-83 27%    
  Fri, Mar 6 52 @San Diego St. L 73-85 14%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 3.9 2.7 0.5 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.8 4.7 4.1 0.8 0.0 11.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.5 6.1 5.2 1.2 0.0 15.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 4.0 7.4 5.6 1.6 0.1 19.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 4.4 6.1 4.1 0.9 0.1 17.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.7 3.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 11.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.9 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.5 5.5 8.9 12.1 14.5 14.5 13.1 10.5 7.6 4.8 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 85.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 74.6% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 44.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 10.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 57.1% 39.3% 17.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.4%
16-4 0.2% 10.2% 6.8% 3.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.6%
15-5 0.5% 8.7% 8.0% 0.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.7%
14-6 1.3% 5.2% 5.2% 11.2 0.1 0.0 1.2
13-7 2.7% 6.1% 6.1% 11.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.6
12-8 4.8% 3.0% 3.0% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.7
11-9 7.6% 1.8% 1.8% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.4
10-10 10.5% 1.1% 1.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.4
9-11 13.1% 0.5% 0.5% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.1
8-12 14.5% 0.3% 0.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 14.5
7-13 14.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.4
6-14 12.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.1
5-15 8.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.9
4-16 5.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.5
3-17 2.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.5
2-18 0.9% 0.9
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.1 0.0%