Colorado St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.9#69
Expected Predictive Rating+8.2#74
Pace60.7#357
Improvement+0.3#170

Offense
Total Offense+8.6#24
First Shot+8.7#16
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#185
Layup/Dunks-0.7#211
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#269
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.2#2
Freethrows+0.8#127
Improvement-1.1#269

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#189
First Shot-2.8#267
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#51
Layups/Dunks-1.9#255
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#205
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#315
Freethrows+3.1#28
Improvement+1.4#78
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 1.0% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.0% 25.1% 12.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.3% 12.7% 4.0%
Average Seed 10.4 10.0 10.7
.500 or above 97.2% 99.5% 96.3%
.500 or above in Conference 84.6% 94.7% 80.8%
Conference Champion 13.2% 26.2% 8.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four3.4% 5.5% 2.6%
First Round14.2% 22.1% 11.2%
Second Round4.8% 8.3% 3.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.7% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah St. (Away) - 27.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 3
Quad 25 - 46 - 7
Quad 37 - 213 - 9
Quad 49 - 121 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 189 Incarnate Word W 98-64 88%     1 - 0 +29.2 +26.4 +5.1
  Sun, Nov 9 235 Nebraska Omaha W 97-74 91%     2 - 0 +15.9 +26.0 -8.4
  Wed, Nov 12 249 Cal Poly W 93-79 92%     3 - 0 +5.9 +9.8 -4.8
  Sun, Nov 16 263 @Loyola Chicago W 80-67 84%     4 - 0 +10.5 +17.7 -5.1
  Fri, Nov 21 314 Denver L 81-83 96%     4 - 1 -14.0 +9.8 -24.2
  Wed, Nov 26 64 Virginia Tech L 64-66 48%     4 - 2 +6.5 +2.6 +3.7
  Thu, Nov 27 98 Wichita St. W 76-70 61%     5 - 2 +11.0 +20.8 -8.6
  Fri, Nov 28 86 South Florida W 83-68 55%     6 - 2 +21.5 +14.6 +7.2
  Sat, Dec 6 62 Colorado W 91-86 58%     7 - 2 +10.8 +22.1 -11.1
  Tue, Dec 9 247 Dartmouth W 76-55 92%     8 - 2 +13.1 +8.3 +7.2
  Sat, Dec 20 43 @Utah St. L 71-77 28%    
  Tue, Dec 30 99 Nevada W 75-69 71%    
  Sat, Jan 3 91 @Grand Canyon L 71-72 47%    
  Tue, Jan 6 74 New Mexico W 78-75 62%    
  Fri, Jan 9 141 UNLV W 82-72 81%    
  Tue, Jan 13 184 @Fresno St. W 78-71 73%    
  Fri, Jan 16 46 @Boise St. L 67-73 30%    
  Tue, Jan 20 324 Air Force W 78-57 97%    
  Fri, Jan 23 43 Utah St. L 74-75 49%    
  Wed, Jan 28 52 @San Diego St. L 72-77 31%    
  Sat, Jan 31 97 @Wyoming L 74-75 50%    
  Sat, Feb 7 188 San Jose St. W 78-65 87%    
  Tue, Feb 10 324 @Air Force W 75-60 91%    
  Sat, Feb 14 97 Wyoming W 77-71 70%    
  Wed, Feb 18 141 @UNLV W 79-75 62%    
  Sat, Feb 21 52 San Diego St. W 75-74 52%    
  Tue, Feb 24 184 Fresno St. W 81-68 87%    
  Sat, Feb 28 188 @San Jose St. W 75-68 73%    
  Wed, Mar 4 74 @New Mexico L 75-78 40%    
  Sat, Mar 7 46 Boise St. L 69-70 50%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 3.0 4.1 3.1 1.4 0.4 0.1 13.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 5.2 5.1 2.1 0.4 0.0 14.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 2.0 6.0 5.0 1.4 0.1 14.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 6.0 5.0 1.1 0.1 14.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.3 5.4 4.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 12.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.9 4.2 1.1 0.0 10.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 2.9 3.5 1.1 0.1 8.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 1.9 2.4 0.9 0.1 5.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.4 0.6 0.1 3.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 4.4 6.9 9.8 12.8 14.1 14.2 12.3 9.5 6.4 3.5 1.5 0.4 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
18-2 97.7% 1.4    1.3 0.1
17-3 88.7% 3.1    2.4 0.6 0.0
16-4 64.9% 4.1    2.3 1.6 0.2 0.0
15-5 31.7% 3.0    0.9 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 7.6% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.2% 13.2 7.6 4.0 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 37.9% 62.1% 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.4% 91.3% 49.6% 41.7% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 82.8%
18-2 1.5% 82.8% 34.1% 48.8% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 74.0%
17-3 3.5% 62.3% 26.1% 36.2% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.0 1.3 49.0%
16-4 6.4% 42.8% 22.7% 20.2% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.4 0.0 3.7 26.1%
15-5 9.5% 29.9% 18.8% 11.1% 10.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 0.1 6.7 13.7%
14-6 12.3% 19.8% 13.9% 5.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.9 0.2 9.9 6.8%
13-7 14.2% 12.9% 11.1% 1.8% 11.1 0.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 12.4 2.1%
12-8 14.1% 8.0% 7.5% 0.4% 11.2 0.0 0.8 0.3 13.0 0.5%
11-9 12.8% 4.7% 4.7% 0.1% 11.4 0.3 0.3 12.2 0.1%
10-10 9.8% 3.9% 3.8% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 9.4 0.1%
9-11 6.9% 2.0% 2.0% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.8
8-12 4.4% 1.5% 1.5% 12.4 0.0 0.0 4.3
7-13 2.4% 0.6% 0.6% 13.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
6-14 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 1.1
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 16.0% 10.4% 5.6% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.4 3.1 8.6 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 84.0 6.3%