Colorado St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.4 #97
Expected Predictive Rating +4.7 #95
Pace 59.6 #364
Improvement -3.3 #320

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #53 A B- D+ B- C+
Defense #199 C C C- B B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #254 1.29 #53 +0.9 #143
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #296 0.72 #223 -2.3 #292
Three Pointers 49% #36 1.30 #1 +11.0 #1
1st FG Attempt 1.21 #5 +9.6 #5
Freethrows 0.32 #138 77% #29 0.24 #95
Second Chance 32.5% #128 1.16 #49 0.38 #68
Turnovers 18.2% #291
Total Offense +6.3 #53

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #325 1.22 #267 +2.5 #96
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #139 0.82 #282 -1.1 #273
Three Pointers 46% #49 0.96 #97 -1.1 #230
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #169 +0.3 #170
Freethrows 0.27 #69 68% #30 0.18 #46
Second Chance 27.1% #64 1.20 #337 0.32 #198
Turnovers 15.2% #253
Total Defense -0.9 #199

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.0% #116 -1.2% #80
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 17.6% #4 0.5% #192
Possession Length 19.2 #338 18.4 #318
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #153 0.13 #59
Improvement -5.3 #361 +2.0 #62

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 3.6% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.7% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.3 11.0 11.5
.500 or above 90.4% 97.8% 88.6%
.500 or above in Conference 43.3% 69.0% 37.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
First Round2.3% 3.4% 2.0%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego St. (Away) - 19.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 4
Quad 24 - 65 - 10
Quad 34 - 29 - 12
Quad 49 - 118 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 240 Incarnate Word W 98 - 64 88% +18  1 - 0 +27 +28 A+ A+ B- +1 B- A+ F
 Sun, Nov 9 250 Nebraska Omaha W 97 - 74 89% +8  2 - 0 +15 +27 A+ A+ D- -10 D+ B- F
 Wed, Nov 12 288 Cal Poly W 93 - 79 92% +9  3 - 0 +4 +8 B+ C- C -6 D A- D-
 Sun, Nov 16 281 @Loyola Chicago W 80 - 67 81% +12  4 - 0 +9 +17 B+ A+ D -6 F B- B+
 Fri, Nov 21 284 Denver L 81 - 83 92% -2  4 - 1 -12 +10 B- A+ F -23 F C F
 Wed, Nov 26 60 Virginia Tech L 64 - 66 35% -3  4 - 2 +7 +4 C- B+ C+ +3 C- A+ D+
 Thu, Nov 27 100 Wichita St. W 76 - 70 51% +10  5 - 2 +11 +20 A+ D- D+ -8 A+ F C-
 Fri, Nov 28 69 South Florida W 83 - 68 40% +8  6 - 2 +23 +15 A+ C D- +8 A+ A- D
 Sat, Dec 6 82 Colorado W 91 - 86 55% +4  7 - 2 +9 +22 A+ D C -13 F B- F
 Tue, Dec 9 235 Dartmouth W 76 - 55 88% +9  8 - 2 +14 +8 A+ F F +8 B B+ A
 Sat, Dec 20 40 @Utah St. L 58 - 100 17% -24  8 - 3 0 - 1 -26 -3 D C- D -28 F F C
 Tue, Dec 30 74 Nevada L 62 - 75 53% -4  8 - 4 0 - 2 -8 -3 D B+ C+ -6 A+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 71 @Grand Canyon W 70 - 60 30% +10  9 - 4 1 - 2 +21 +15 A- C D- +7 A+ C- C
 Tue, Jan 6 43 New Mexico L 70 - 80 37% -7  9 - 5 1 - 3 -1 +8 B A+ C- -10 D F C+
 Fri, Jan 9 125 UNLV W 70 - 62 73% +0  10 - 5 2 - 3 +7 +3 C- A+ F+ +5 A- D+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 152 @Fresno St. L 69 - 79 57% -7  10 - 6 2 - 4 -6 +9 A- D- C+ -17 C D- F
 Fri, Jan 16 59 @Boise St. L 73 - 79 25% -6  10 - 7 2 - 5 +6 +16 A+ F F -10 C- F B-
 Tue, Jan 20 347 Air Force W 81 - 52 96% +17  11 - 7 3 - 5 +14 +10 A- D A+ +7 A A+ B-
 Fri, Jan 23 40 Utah St. L 61 - 65 34% +4  11 - 8 3 - 6 +6 -1 A+ A+ F +6 B- A+ C
 Wed, Jan 28 46 @San Diego St. L 67 - 76 20%
 Sat, Jan 31 110 @Wyoming L 71 - 72 44%
 Sat, Feb 7 249 San Jose St. W 77 - 64 89%
 Tue, Feb 10 347 @Air Force W 74 - 60 91%
 Sat, Feb 14 110 Wyoming W 74 - 69 67%
 Wed, Feb 18 125 @UNLV W 75 - 74 51%
 Sat, Feb 21 46 San Diego St. L 70 - 73 39%
 Tue, Feb 24 152 Fresno St. W 74 - 66 77%
 Sat, Feb 28 249 @San Jose St. W 74 - 67 75%
 Wed, Mar 4 43 @New Mexico L 69 - 78 19%
 Sat, Mar 7 59 Boise St. L 70 - 71 46%
Totals 17 - 13 9 - 11 +5 +6 A B- D+ -1 C C C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.5 3rd
4th 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.0 1.8 4th
5th 0.3 2.3 2.6 0.4 5.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 6.5 8.3 1.9 0.1 18.0 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 10.5 12.5 3.3 0.1 28.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.4 8.7 10.1 2.6 0.1 22.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 5.4 6.9 1.6 0.0 14.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 2.6 3.2 0.9 0.0 7.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.5 10.1 18.5 23.4 21.8 14.1 5.7 1.5 0.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 5.9% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.2% 35.3% 17.6% 17.6% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 21.4%
13-7 1.5% 12.4% 8.0% 4.3% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.7%
12-8 5.7% 6.5% 5.6% 1.0% 11.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 5.4 1.0%
11-9 14.1% 4.3% 4.2% 0.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 13.5 0.1%
10-10 21.8% 2.3% 2.3% 11.4 0.3 0.2 21.3
9-11 23.4% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 11.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 23.1 0.0%
8-12 18.5% 1.2% 1.2% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 18.3
7-13 10.1% 0.5% 0.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0
6-14 3.5% 0.3% 0.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 3.5
5-15 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 15.0 0.0 1.0
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.3% 2.1% 0.2% 11.3 97.7 0.2%