Nevada
Mountain West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.7 #74
Expected Predictive Rating +9.6 #63
Pace 64.1 #308
Improvement +3.2 #47

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #72 C B- A- A- D+
Defense #93 B C C C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #112 1.04 #312 -1.1 #221
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #47 0.75 #196 +2.8 #55
Three Pointers 31% #350 1.25 #3 -1.5 #234
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #169 +0.2 #170
Freethrows 0.37 #20 77% #36 0.28 #10
Second Chance 34.9% #64 1.04 #190 0.36 #88
Turnovers 12.7% #13
Total Offense +4.7 #72

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #222 1.01 #28 +3.5 #72
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #207 0.76 #189 +0.4 #158
Three Pointers 43% #109 0.95 #89 +0.3 #166
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #57 +4.1 #56
Freethrows 0.33 #268 71% #135 0.23 #253
Second Chance 27.4% #73 1.17 #322 0.32 #188
Turnovers 16.9% #157
Total Defense +3.0 #93

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.6% #292 0.1% #174
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.9% #146 -8.2% #44
Possession Length 17.1 #148 18.5 #330
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #58 0.15 #106
Improvement +0.4 #160 +2.8 #38

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.7% 10.5% 6.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.5% 2.8% 1.2%
Average Seed 10.9 10.9 11.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.2% 99.8% 96.9%
Conference Champion 6.6% 7.9% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.9% 2.2% 1.0%
First Round8.6% 9.3% 5.9%
Second Round1.9% 2.1% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNLV (Home) - 79.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 5
Quad 25 - 46 - 9
Quad 310 - 116 - 10
Quad 46 - 122 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 221 Louisiana Tech W 77 - 50 90% +16  1 - 0 +20 +13 C A+ B- +11 A C+ B+
 Sat, Nov 8 131 Pacific W 78 - 77 80% +2  2 - 0 -0 +8 C B+ B- -8 D+ A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 145 Southern Illinois W 86 - 81 OT 82% -1  3 - 0 +3 +6 F+ D A+ -3 B- A F
 Sat, Nov 15 50 @Santa Clara L 83 - 98 29% -13  3 - 1 -1 +16 A- D A- -17 F F C-
 Tue, Nov 18 182 UC Davis L 71 - 75 87% +0  3 - 2 -9 -8 D+ F F -0 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 22 146 UC Santa Barbara W 77 - 64 82% +8  4 - 2 +11 +2 C D- D +10 A+ D A
 Thu, Nov 27 47 Washington L 66 - 83 36% -7  4 - 3 -6 -3 D- C+ B+ -2 D+ B+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 98 San Francisco W 81 - 65 59% +5  5 - 3 +21 +18 A- C A+ +5 A F+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 114 UC San Diego W 76 - 70 76% +4  6 - 3 +6 +10 B B+ B+ -3 A+ F F
 Sun, Dec 7 138 @Washington St. W 78 - 64 63% +5  7 - 3 +18 +13 F+ A+ A+ +6 A C- A-
 Sat, Dec 13 116 Duquesne W 78 - 75 77% +5  8 - 3 +3 +8 D+ A A -5 A- F+ C+
 Sat, Dec 20 59 Boise St. W 81 - 66 55% +10  9 - 3 1 - 0 +21 +22 A+ C+ A+ +2 C A A+
 Tue, Dec 30 97 @Colorado St. W 75 - 62 47% +4  10 - 3 2 - 0 +21 +10 F A+ A- +12 A+ D+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 152 @Fresno St. W 66 - 65 66% -2  11 - 3 3 - 0 +5 +3 C- B- B+ +1 C D- A-
 Tue, Jan 6 46 San Diego St. L 68 - 73 47% +2  11 - 4 3 - 1 +3 +7 F+ A+ A+ -4 B+ F A-
 Sat, Jan 10 110 Wyoming W 92 - 83 75% +4  12 - 4 4 - 1 +10 +31 A+ A+ A- -20 F+ F+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 40 @Utah St. L 62 - 71 22% -3  12 - 5 4 - 2 +7 -0 B- F C +6 B A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 347 @Air Force W 81 - 66 93% +10  13 - 5 5 - 2 +6 +9 A D- F -2 F A+ C
 Tue, Jan 20 249 San Jose St. W 87 - 54 92% +16  14 - 5 6 - 2 +25 +21 C+ B+ A+ +9 A+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 43 @New Mexico L 73 - 80 25% -0  14 - 6 6 - 3 +8 +9 B D B -1 A D D+
 Tue, Jan 27 71 Grand Canyon W 66 - 60 OT 61% -2  15 - 6 7 - 3 +11 -3 F+ C+ A+ +13 A+ B+ A-
 Fri, Jan 30 125 UNLV W 80 - 71 79%
 Tue, Feb 3 59 @Boise St. L 68 - 73 32%
 Sat, Feb 7 152 Fresno St. W 75 - 65 82%
 Sat, Feb 14 46 @San Diego St. L 68 - 75 27%
 Tue, Feb 17 249 @San Jose St. W 75 - 65 82%
 Sat, Feb 21 40 Utah St. L 72 - 74 42%
 Tue, Feb 24 43 New Mexico L 73 - 74 46%
 Sat, Feb 28 125 @UNLV W 77 - 74 58%
 Tue, Mar 3 110 @Wyoming W 73 - 72 53%
 Sat, Mar 7 347 Air Force W 78 - 55 98%
Totals 21 - 10 13 - 7 +8 +5 C B- A- +3 B C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.8 2.8 0.6 6.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 5.5 7.0 1.0 0.0 14.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 6.6 10.7 2.3 0.0 20.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 6.4 13.5 4.2 0.1 24.6 4th
5th 0.3 5.1 11.7 5.0 0.2 22.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 4.9 2.3 0.1 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.6 0.0 2.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.9 11.1 20.9 25.8 21.0 12.1 3.9 0.6 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 99.1% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 72.7% 2.8    1.3 1.3 0.2 0.0
15-5 23.3% 2.8    0.3 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0
14-6 1.7% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.6% 6.6 2.0 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.6% 60.4% 24.3% 36.0% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 47.6%
16-4 3.9% 32.0% 17.9% 14.2% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.0 2.6 17.2%
15-5 12.1% 18.8% 12.2% 6.6% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 0.0 9.8 7.5%
14-6 21.0% 11.7% 9.1% 2.5% 11.0 0.0 0.2 2.1 0.2 18.5 2.8%
13-7 25.8% 7.4% 6.8% 0.7% 11.1 0.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 23.8 0.7%
12-8 20.9% 4.7% 4.6% 0.1% 11.3 0.7 0.3 19.9 0.1%
11-9 11.1% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 11.4 0.3 0.2 10.7 0.0%
10-10 3.9% 1.6% 1.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 3.8
9-11 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 12.0 0.0 0.7
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 9.7% 7.4% 2.3% 10.9 90.3 2.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 8.3 11.1 7.4 48.1 18.5 7.4 7.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 54.1% 10.2 13.5 16.2 24.3