San Jose St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.8 #249
Expected Predictive Rating -5.3 #242
Pace 62.8 #331
Improvement -3.5 #323

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #197 C- C+ C C D-
Defense #285 D F+ B- C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #330 1.12 #225 -4.3 #320
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #36 0.72 #224 +2.7 #56
Three Pointers 39% #228 1.09 #77 +0.3 #164
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #216 -1.2 #216
Freethrows 0.30 #213 74% #141 0.22 #186
Second Chance 33.8% #91 1.00 #234 0.34 #134
Turnovers 16.3% #171
Total Offense -1.2 #197

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #127 1.31 #339 -4.4 #324
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #283 0.79 #240 +1.0 #122
Three Pointers 42% #143 1.05 #238 -1.3 #244
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #316 -4.8 #317
Freethrows 0.28 #110 75% #298 0.21 #142
Second Chance 34.6% #318 1.21 #343 0.42 #351
Turnovers 18.6% #65
Total Defense -3.6 #285

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.0% #336 1.2% #279
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.7% #164 8.0% #321
Possession Length 19.6 #350 17.4 #185
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #247 0.20 #281
Improvement -2.1 #297 -1.3 #259

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 18.3% 5.3% 19.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico (Home) - 10.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 20 - 101 - 16
Quad 31 - 72 - 23
Quad 46 - 17 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 104 @Utah L 75 - 84 12% -5  0 - 1 -1 +3 C C- C- -4 D+ D B-
 Sat, Nov 8 146 @UC Santa Barbara L 74 - 85 20% -9  0 - 2 -7 +8 C- A+ F -17 F F C
 Thu, Nov 13 6 @Michigan St. L 60 - 79 1% -14  0 - 3 +5 +5 C- B- A- -2 C+ C D-
 Fri, Nov 21 254 Southern W 80 - 66 63% +8  1 - 3 +6 +6 C+ B- F+ +0 C A- B
 Tue, Nov 25 73 Tulsa L 51 - 81 12% -13  1 - 4 -22 -15 F C- F+ -11 D- F C
 Wed, Nov 26 281 Loyola Chicago W 63 - 51 58% +1  2 - 4 +5 -2 D+ D C +9 D F A+
 Sun, Nov 30 119 UC Irvine L 63 - 72 33% -5  2 - 5 -9 -2 C- D- B+ -8 D+ D C
 Fri, Dec 5 212 San Diego W 86 - 69 55% +18  3 - 5 +11 +6 A- A F +4 A+ F D+
 Tue, Dec 9 251 Long Beach St. W 89 - 83 OT 62% +1  4 - 5 -2 +11 A A C -13 C F A-
 Sat, Dec 13 84 Stanford L 82 - 86 21% -8  4 - 6 -0 +13 C+ A+ A+ -13 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 43 @New Mexico L 65 - 88 4% -10  4 - 7 0 - 1 -8 +3 C C C+ -12 F D C
 Tue, Dec 30 46 San Diego St. L 68 - 81 11% -4  4 - 8 0 - 2 -5 -2 F A+ F -2 C- F A
 Sat, Jan 3 40 @Utah St. L 78 - 96 4% -1  4 - 9 0 - 3 -2 +18 A C A+ -22 F F D
 Tue, Jan 6 152 Fresno St. L 55 - 70 41% -11  4 - 10 0 - 4 -17 -10 C- F+ B- -9 D F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 71 @Grand Canyon L 58 - 76 8% -14  4 - 11 0 - 5 -7 -6 C D+ D- -2 F+ D A-
 Tue, Jan 13 347 Air Force W 70 - 62 83% +4  5 - 11 1 - 5 -7 +3 C C+ C -9 D+ D- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 125 UNLV L 62 - 76 35% -7  5 - 12 1 - 6 -15 +3 B- D+ D- -22 F A+ F+
 Tue, Jan 20 74 @Nevada L 54 - 87 8% -16  5 - 13 1 - 7 -22 -7 F D A+ -20 F+ F F
 Sat, Jan 24 110 @Wyoming L 62 - 66 14% -3  5 - 14 1 - 8 +3 -2 D+ F+ A- +4 B- A+ C
 Tue, Jan 27 59 Boise St. L 58 - 89 15% -9  5 - 15 1 - 9 -25 -8 D- B- D -18 F F C
 Sat, Jan 31 43 New Mexico L 67 - 81 10%
 Sat, Feb 7 97 @Colorado St. L 64 - 77 11%
 Tue, Feb 10 125 @UNLV L 70 - 80 18%
 Sat, Feb 14 71 Grand Canyon L 64 - 74 18%
 Tue, Feb 17 74 Nevada L 65 - 75 18%
 Sat, Feb 21 59 @Boise St. L 61 - 78 5%
 Tue, Feb 24 347 @Air Force W 68 - 64 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 97 Colorado St. L 67 - 74 25%
 Tue, Mar 3 152 @Fresno St. L 66 - 74 22%
 Sat, Mar 7 110 Wyoming L 69 - 75 30%
Totals 7 - 23 3 - 17 -5 -1 C- C+ C -4 D F+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 2.5 2.1 0.3 0.0 5.7 10th
11th 4.0 21.7 28.8 21.5 8.5 1.4 0.1 85.9 11th
12th 4.2 2.2 0.4 0.0 6.9 12th
Total 8.2 23.9 29.3 22.2 11.2 4.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12 0.2% 0.2
7-13 1.0% 1.0
6-14 4.0% 4.0
5-15 11.2% 11.2
4-16 22.2% 22.2
3-17 29.3% 29.3
2-18 23.9% 23.9
1-19 8.2% 8.2
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 7.5%