San Jose St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.7#188
Expected Predictive Rating-2.5#208
Pace63.9#318
Improvement+2.7#33

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#146
First Shot-1.6#223
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#52
Layup/Dunks-4.0#312
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.7#5
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#285
Freethrows-1.2#261
Improvement+1.7#59

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#254
First Shot-1.3#220
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#269
Layups/Dunks-6.0#349
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#79
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#191
Freethrows+3.4#20
Improvement+1.0#112
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 12.8 13.9
.500 or above 4.4% 12.1% 3.3%
.500 or above in Conference 10.3% 24.7% 8.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 11.3% 4.2% 12.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico (Away) - 12.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 21 - 81 - 13
Quad 33 - 74 - 20
Quad 46 - 111 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 120 @Utah L 75-84 23%     0 - 1 -2.9 +3.0 -5.8
  Sat, Nov 8 151 @UC Santa Barbara L 74-85 30%     0 - 2 -7.4 +9.2 -17.9
  Thu, Nov 13 12 @Michigan St. L 60-79 3%     0 - 3 +1.9 +3.1 -2.3
  Fri, Nov 21 203 Southern W 80-66 65%     1 - 3 +8.2 +6.0 +2.3
  Tue, Nov 25 83 Tulsa L 51-81 20%     1 - 4 -22.9 -14.1 -13.1
  Wed, Nov 26 263 Loyola Chicago W 63-51 64%     2 - 4 +6.5 -1.3 +10.1
  Sun, Nov 30 122 UC Irvine L 63-72 43%     2 - 5 -9.1 -0.9 -8.6
  Fri, Dec 5 246 San Diego W 86-69 72%     3 - 5 +9.2 +4.7 +3.7
  Tue, Dec 9 279 Long Beach St. W 89-83 OT 76%     4 - 5 -3.2 +9.0 -12.3
  Sat, Dec 13 93 Stanford L 82-86 34%     4 - 6 -1.4 +11.2 -12.6
  Sat, Dec 20 74 @New Mexico L 70-82 12%    
  Tue, Dec 30 52 San Diego St. L 69-78 20%    
  Sat, Jan 3 43 @Utah St. L 65-81 7%    
  Tue, Jan 6 184 Fresno St. W 75-72 61%    
  Sat, Jan 10 91 @Grand Canyon L 66-76 17%    
  Tue, Jan 13 324 Air Force W 72-61 84%    
  Sat, Jan 17 141 UNLV L 75-76 50%    
  Tue, Jan 20 99 @Nevada L 66-76 19%    
  Sat, Jan 24 97 @Wyoming L 68-78 18%    
  Tue, Jan 27 46 Boise St. L 64-74 19%    
  Sat, Jan 31 74 New Mexico L 73-79 28%    
  Sat, Feb 7 69 @Colorado St. L 65-78 13%    
  Tue, Feb 10 141 @UNLV L 73-79 29%    
  Sat, Feb 14 91 Grand Canyon L 69-73 35%    
  Tue, Feb 17 99 Nevada L 69-73 37%    
  Sat, Feb 21 46 @Boise St. L 61-77 8%    
  Tue, Feb 24 324 @Air Force W 69-64 67%    
  Sat, Feb 28 69 Colorado St. L 68-75 27%    
  Tue, Mar 3 184 @Fresno St. L 72-75 39%    
  Sat, Mar 7 97 Wyoming L 71-75 37%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 2.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.4 3.2 0.6 0.0 10.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.7 6.6 4.5 0.9 0.0 16.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.7 7.2 8.5 4.8 1.1 0.1 24.7 10th
11th 0.1 1.9 5.5 8.6 7.1 3.1 0.5 0.0 26.8 11th
12th 0.2 1.1 2.2 1.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.2 12th
Total 0.2 1.2 4.1 7.6 12.1 15.2 15.6 14.2 11.4 8.0 5.1 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 80.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 32.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 9.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.1% 3.2% 3.2% 11.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.2% 1.4% 1.4% 11.0 0.0 0.2
13-7 0.6% 3.6% 3.6% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.6
12-8 1.4% 2.2% 2.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
11-9 2.8% 0.6% 0.6% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8
10-10 5.1% 0.7% 0.7% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1
9-11 8.0% 0.2% 0.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 8.0
8-12 11.4% 0.2% 0.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 11.4
7-13 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.2
6-14 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.6
5-15 15.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.2
4-16 12.1% 12.1
3-17 7.6% 7.6
2-18 4.1% 4.1
1-19 1.2% 1.2
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%