Boise St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +9.5 #59
Expected Predictive Rating +9.1 #69
Pace 66.1 #256
Improvement -1.9 #277

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #76 B- C+ C+ B+ B-
Defense #51 C+ A- C B- B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #73 1.19 #141 +2.9 #84
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #283 0.72 #229 -2.1 #283
Three Pointers 42% #166 1.13 #37 +2.8 #92
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #77 +3.6 #77
Freethrows 0.36 #27 76% #62 0.28 #16
Second Chance 33.9% #87 1.04 #183 0.35 #107
Turnovers 15.3% #106
Total Offense +4.2 #76

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #288 1.08 #85 +3.4 #73
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #33 0.84 #305 -3.5 #358
Three Pointers 38% #259 0.96 #106 +2.4 #96
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #104 +2.4 #102
Freethrows 0.28 #121 69% #36 0.19 #86
Second Chance 21.1% #3 1.05 #191 0.22 #10
Turnovers 16.5% #180
Total Defense +5.2 #51

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.8% #68 -2.1% #33
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.2% #94 -2.6% #136
Possession Length 17.3 #167 18.2 #304
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #179 0.16 #162
Improvement +1.7 #93 -3.7 #344

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.4% 25.3% 14.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 10.9% 16.1% 6.6%
Average Seed 10.5 10.3 10.7
.500 or above 99.1% 99.9% 98.4%
.500 or above in Conference 84.6% 94.3% 76.6%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.9% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.8% 9.1% 4.9%
First Round15.7% 20.5% 11.7%
Second Round4.9% 6.5% 3.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.3% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Grand Canyon (Away) - 45.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b3 - 53 - 6
Quad 24 - 47 - 10
Quad 38 - 215 - 12
Quad 45 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 109 Utah Valley W 101 - 77 79% +12  1 - 0 +25 +23 A+ A+ A+ +0 B C+ B
 Tue, Nov 11 191 UT Rio Grande Valley W 85 - 65 91% +9  2 - 0 +15 +5 B- A+ F +8 C- A- A-
 Sat, Nov 15 157 Montana St. W 62 - 58 87% +2  3 - 0 +1 -6 D- F B +8 B- A+ D+
 Tue, Nov 18 100 Wichita St. W 62 - 59 76% +4  4 - 0 +5 -4 F+ B- C +9 A A- B+
 Mon, Nov 24 48 USC L 67 - 70 43% -2  4 - 1 +8 +1 C- B F +7 C A+ B
 Tue, Nov 25 24 North Carolina St. L 70 - 81 27% -5  4 - 2 +5 +4 B D- C +1 D A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 58 @Butler W 77 - 68 38% +2  5 - 2 +22 +12 D+ C+ A +10 A- A- D
 Wed, Dec 10 116 Duquesne W 86 - 64 81% +12  6 - 2 +22 +13 B B+ A +9 A+ B+ D
 Sun, Dec 14 42 St. Mary's W 68 - 67 41% +6  7 - 2 +13 +3 A C- F +10 A+ A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 74 @Nevada L 66 - 81 45% -10  7 - 3 0 - 1 -4 +6 A- D F+ -12 F A D+
 Tue, Dec 30 43 New Mexico W 62 - 53 53% -0  8 - 3 1 - 1 +18 -5 C- F+ A+ +23 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 3 46 @San Diego St. L 107 - 110 3OT 32% -6  8 - 4 1 - 2 +11 +14 B+ D+ B -2 D+ C D+
 Wed, Jan 7 71 Grand Canyon L 58 - 75 68% -7  8 - 5 1 - 3 -12 -7 D F+ D -6 F+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 40 Utah St. L 68 - 93 49% -19  8 - 6 1 - 4 -15 +3 D A A- -20 C- F D
 Tue, Jan 13 125 @UNLV L 85 - 89 OT 66% -0  8 - 7 1 - 5 +1 +4 B+ F C -2 C C C
 Fri, Jan 16 97 Colorado St. W 79 - 73 75% +6  9 - 7 2 - 5 +8 +14 B+ A+ D -5 D- A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 20 110 @Wyoming W 81 - 65 61% +10  10 - 7 3 - 5 +23 +17 A+ D+ A- +7 C+ A- C+
 Sat, Jan 24 347 Air Force W 96 - 54 98% +19  11 - 7 4 - 5 +27 +31 A+ A+ A+ +1 C B+ C-
 Tue, Jan 27 249 @San Jose St. W 89 - 58 85% +9  12 - 7 5 - 5 +29 +18 A- A+ B+ +12 A- B B-
 Fri, Jan 30 71 @Grand Canyon L 69 - 70 46%
 Tue, Feb 3 74 Nevada W 73 - 68 68%
 Sat, Feb 7 43 @New Mexico L 71 - 76 31%
 Fri, Feb 13 125 UNLV W 80 - 70 83%
 Wed, Feb 18 40 @Utah St. L 70 - 76 28%
 Sat, Feb 21 249 San Jose St. W 78 - 61 95%
 Tue, Feb 24 110 Wyoming W 76 - 67 79%
 Sat, Feb 28 152 @Fresno St. W 73 - 67 71%
 Tue, Mar 3 46 San Diego St. W 72 - 71 54%
 Sat, Mar 7 97 @Colorado St. W 71 - 70 54%
Totals 18 - 11 11 - 9 +9 +4 B- C+ C+ +5 C+ A- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.3 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.4 2.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.2 2.4 0.1 6.0 3rd
4th 0.4 4.8 6.4 0.6 12.1 4th
5th 0.5 5.6 10.9 2.7 0.0 19.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.5 9.9 16.1 6.3 0.3 34.1 6th
7th 0.6 4.8 7.9 2.5 0.1 15.8 7th
8th 0.2 1.9 3.5 1.1 0.0 6.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.0 10.2 19.4 24.7 22.4 12.9 4.5 0.7 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 38.6% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.7% 82.1% 27.6% 54.5% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 75.2%
14-6 4.5% 64.1% 21.7% 42.5% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 0.7 1.6 54.2%
13-7 12.9% 39.5% 14.7% 24.8% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.6 0.0 7.8 29.1%
12-8 22.4% 23.5% 11.5% 12.0% 10.7 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.6 0.1 17.1 13.6%
11-9 24.7% 13.7% 8.3% 5.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.9 0.1 21.3 5.9%
10-10 19.4% 8.0% 6.6% 1.4% 11.0 0.1 1.4 0.1 17.8 1.5%
9-11 10.2% 4.9% 4.8% 0.1% 11.1 0.0 0.4 0.1 9.7 0.1%
8-12 4.0% 3.2% 3.2% 11.5 0.1 0.1 3.9
7-13 1.0% 2.1% 2.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 1.0
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 19.4% 9.6% 9.8% 10.5 80.6 10.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 6.4 15.0 37.5 37.5 10.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 88.9% 9.0 3.7 18.5 33.3 33.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 71.2% 9.0 7.7 15.4 23.1 21.2 3.8