Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
85 Belmont 23.4%   12   9 - 1 1 - 0 22 - 8 14 - 6 +6.6      +4.4 73 +2.3 103 75.2 48 +9.5 65 +10.4 1
90 Illinois St. 18.8%   7 - 3 0 - 0 20 - 10 13 - 7 +5.8      +4.0 80 +1.8 110 66.7 258 +4.8 103 0.0 2
93 Northern Iowa 18.1%   7 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 10 13 - 7 +5.6      -0.9 189 +6.5 28 61.8 353 +6.1 94 0.0 2
99 Murray St. 14.8%   8 - 3 0 - 0 20 - 11 12 - 8 +4.9      +5.0 69 -0.1 169 77.9 22 +6.6 88 0.0 2
116 Bradley 9.5%   6 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 13 11 - 9 +3.3      +0.5 155 +2.8 87 68.1 219 0.0 171 0.0 2
129 Southern Illinois 6.3%   5 - 5 0 - 0 15 - 15 10 - 10 +2.0      +0.6 152 +1.4 122 72.6 97 +0.7 160 0.0 2
136 Drake 5.8%   4 - 5 0 - 0 14 - 15 10 - 10 +1.6      +2.0 118 -0.4 178 64.4 308 -3.7 230 0.0 2
181 Indiana St. 2.0%   5 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 12 -1.4      -2.7 237 +1.3 128 75.7 42 -1.3 190 0.0 2
189 Illinois-Chicago 1.6%   3 - 6 0 - 1 11 - 18 7 - 13 -1.8      -0.2 173 -1.6 227 69.6 183 -7.5 276 -5.6 11
213 Valparaiso 0.8%   5 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 18 7 - 13 -3.3      -3.5 258 +0.2 158 66.6 264 -3.4 224 0.0 2
275 Evansville 0.2%   2 - 7 0 - 0 7 - 22 5 - 15 -6.0      -4.8 300 -1.2 211 67.6 233 -6.9 268 0.0 2




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Dec 13 90 Illinois St. 78 46 Utah St. 83   
Sat, Dec 13 102 Richmond 93 129 Southern Illinois 84   
Sat, Dec 13 136 Drake 94 146 North Dakota St. 99   
Sat, Dec 13 149 Oakland 63 93 Northern Iowa 75   
Sat, Dec 13 85 Belmont 87 189 Illinois-Chicago 84   
Sat, Dec 13 108 UNC Wilmington 73 213 Valparaiso 70   
Sat, Dec 13 65 Akron 100 99 Murray St. 115   
Sat, Dec 13 275 Evansville 58 55 Notre Dame 82   
Sun, Dec 14 181 Indiana St. 70 236 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 68   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Tue, Dec 16 58 Northwestern 79 213 Valparaiso 64 92%   
Tue, Dec 16 85 Belmont 80 275 Evansville 70 82%   
Wed, Dec 17 189 Illinois-Chicago 65 93 Northern Iowa 69 66%   
Thu, Dec 18 129 Southern Illinois 74 90 Illinois St. 75 53%   
Thu, Dec 18 136 Drake 76 99 Murray St. 82 73%   
Thu, Dec 18 116 Bradley 74 181 Indiana St. 72 57%   
Fri, Dec 19 85 Belmont 74 122 UC Irvine 73 53%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Belmont 2.8 33.7 21.7 15.3 10.6 7.9 4.9 3.1 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1
Illinois St. 3.3 25.2 19.8 16.3 12.8 9.7 6.8 4.6 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.2
Northern Iowa 3.4 23.4 19.3 15.7 13.0 10.1 7.6 5.2 3.1 1.7 0.8 0.3
Murray St. 3.8 17.9 17.6 16.3 13.9 11.4 9.1 6.3 3.9 2.2 1.0 0.4
Bradley 4.7 10.6 12.2 13.5 13.4 13.9 12.4 9.6 7.0 4.2 2.3 0.8
Southern Illinois 5.5 5.9 8.3 10.3 11.8 13.5 13.6 12.7 10.4 7.4 4.2 1.8
Drake 5.7 5.3 7.3 9.8 11.4 13.0 13.7 13.3 11.0 8.0 4.9 2.2
Indiana St. 7.5 1.2 2.3 3.7 5.4 7.6 10.3 13.8 16.4 16.7 14.3 8.3
Illinois-Chicago 7.8 0.7 1.6 2.9 4.7 6.8 9.8 12.7 16.5 17.7 16.3 10.4
Valparaiso 8.5 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.0 4.5 6.8 10.5 14.5 18.8 21.6 17.1
Evansville 9.6 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.6 3.0 5.2 9.0 15.2 23.7 40.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Belmont 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.3 5.5 8.3 11.2 13.3 15.2 14.0 11.6 8.0 4.6 1.8 0.4
Illinois St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.9 4.8 7.5 10.2 12.5 14.1 14.0 12.0 9.3 5.7 2.9 1.0 0.2
Northern Iowa 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.8 3.4 5.5 8.3 10.4 12.8 13.9 13.3 11.1 8.9 5.3 2.7 1.0 0.2
Murray St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.5 4.2 6.6 9.6 11.8 13.7 13.6 12.7 10.1 6.8 3.8 1.8 0.4 0.1
Bradley 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.9 5.0 7.2 9.9 12.2 13.3 13.4 11.6 9.2 6.7 3.7 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0
Southern Illinois 10 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.9 5.1 7.6 10.4 12.0 13.2 12.9 11.6 9.0 6.3 3.7 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Drake 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.7 3.5 5.5 8.1 10.7 12.7 13.1 12.4 11.1 8.3 5.6 3.5 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Indiana St. 8 - 12 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.7 6.5 9.4 12.3 13.5 13.2 12.4 9.7 7.0 4.8 3.0 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 7 - 13 0.1 0.7 2.1 4.4 7.4 10.7 13.2 14.2 12.9 11.4 9.0 6.2 3.9 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Valparaiso 7 - 13 0.3 1.5 4.1 7.3 10.8 13.6 14.3 13.6 11.3 8.8 6.1 4.0 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Evansville 5 - 15 1.6 5.6 9.9 14.6 15.8 15.5 13.0 9.4 6.4 4.0 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Belmont 33.7% 23.5 7.9 2.0 0.3 0.1
Illinois St. 25.2% 16.6 6.5 1.7 0.3 0.1
Northern Iowa 23.4% 15.6 5.9 1.5 0.2 0.0
Murray St. 17.9% 10.8 5.4 1.4 0.3 0.0
Bradley 10.6% 6.1 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.0
Southern Illinois 5.9% 3.2 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
Drake 5.3% 2.8 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
Indiana St. 1.2% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 0.7% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Valparaiso 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Evansville 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Belmont 23.4% 22.8% 0.6% 12   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 7.7 12.0 2.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 76.6 0.8%
Illinois St. 18.8% 18.6% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 4.2 10.1 3.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 81.2 0.2%
Northern Iowa 18.1% 17.8% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 4.7 9.7 2.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 81.9 0.4%
Murray St. 14.8% 14.6% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.2 8.4 2.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 85.2 0.2%
Bradley 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 4.2 3.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 90.5 0.0%
Southern Illinois 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 2.3 2.2 0.8 0.4 0.2 93.7 0.0%
Drake 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.7 1.9 1.0 0.6 0.4 94.2 0.0%
Indiana St. 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 98.0 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 98.4 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.2 0.0%
Evansville 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Belmont 23.4% 0.5% 23.2% 5.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 18.8% 0.2% 18.7% 3.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 18.1% 0.3% 17.9% 3.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 14.8% 0.2% 14.7% 2.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 9.5% 0.1% 9.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 6.3% 0.1% 6.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 5.8% 0.3% 5.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 2.0% 0.2% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 1.6% 0.3% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.8% 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.7 1.3
1st Round 99.6% 1.0 0.4 98.8 0.7
2nd Round 17.3% 0.2 82.7 17.3 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.3% 0.0 96.7 3.3
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0