Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
38 Utah St. 73.2%   10   16 - 3 8 - 2 +13.4      +8.3 32 +5.1 54 68.5 188 +13.3 40 +11.9 3
41 San Diego St. 51.3%   14 - 5 9 - 1 +11.9      +4.2 78 +7.7 21 69.7 157 +12.1 48 +17.3 1
43 New Mexico 56.1%   11   16 - 4 8 - 2 +11.8      +4.3 75 +7.6 23 76.0 31 +13.1 41 +13.0 2
58 Boise St. 19.0%   12 - 7 5 - 5 +9.5      +4.2 77 +5.3 50 66.2 253 +9.1 68 +5.5 7
74 Nevada 9.3%   15 - 6 7 - 3 +7.8      +4.7 72 +3.0 90 64.1 306 +9.6 62 +11.1 5
75 Grand Canyon 9.5%   13 - 7 6 - 3 +7.8      +0.2 155 +7.5 24 70.0 150 +8.2 71 +11.8 4
102 Colorado St. 1.8%   11 - 9 3 - 7 +5.0      +5.8 62 -0.8 196 59.3 365 +4.6 96 +1.3 9
116 Wyoming 0.6%   11 - 9 3 - 7 +3.1      +2.5 107 +0.6 141 66.9 232 +2.0 135 -1.5 10
125 UNLV 0.6%   9 - 10 5 - 4 +2.1      +1.5 128 +0.6 145 73.9 55 +2.1 132 +6.4 6
149 Fresno St. 0.2%   8 - 11 3 - 6 +0.5      -2.7 243 +3.2 84 71.1 116 -1.1 185 +1.5 8
249 San Jose St. 0.0%   5 - 15 1 - 9 -4.8      -1.3 197 -3.6 284 62.8 331 -5.3 245 -11.9 12
347 Air Force 0.0%   3 - 17 0 - 9 -12.0      -9.0 357 -3.0 267 63.3 319 -12.0 337 -10.5 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Jan 27 74 Nevada 66 75 Grand Canyon 60   
Tue, Jan 27 58 Boise St. 89 249 San Jose St. 58   
Tue, Jan 27 43 New Mexico 89 125 UNLV 61   
Wed, Jan 28 41 San Diego St. 73 102 Colorado St. 50   
Wed, Jan 28 38 Utah St. 94 116 Wyoming 62   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Jan 30 58 Boise St. 69 75 Grand Canyon 70 55%   
Fri, Jan 30 74 Nevada 79 125 UNLV 71 79%   
Sat, Jan 31 41 San Diego St. 72 38 Utah St. 76 67%   
Sat, Jan 31 102 Colorado St. 71 116 Wyoming 72 54%   
Sat, Jan 31 43 New Mexico 80 249 San Jose St. 67 89%   
Sat, Jan 31 347 Air Force 62 149 Fresno St. 71 81%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Utah St. 2.3 34.2 26.6 20.0 11.1 6.2 1.7 0.2 0.0
San Diego St. 1.8 54.1 25.2 12.6 5.4 2.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
New Mexico 2.4 30.7 30.1 20.4 11.0 5.9 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Boise St. 5.7 0.3 2.0 5.3 11.6 20.1 37.1 15.4 6.0 1.8 0.4
Nevada 3.9 5.7 12.5 20.0 25.7 24.2 8.8 2.5 0.4 0.0 0.0
Grand Canyon 3.8 6.4 13.8 21.8 26.6 20.9 7.8 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Colorado St. 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.6 15.7 29.4 25.8 15.6 8.6 0.4
Wyoming 8.7 0.0 0.2 0.8 4.0 12.0 21.1 30.0 30.6 1.3
UNLV 7.1 0.1 0.2 1.0 3.3 7.5 17.9 31.2 23.8 11.4 3.5 0.0
Fresno St. 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 4.6 12.4 20.6 30.9 29.1 1.3 0.0
San Jose St. 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 6.8 84.3 6.9
Air Force 11.8 0.0 0.3 17.2 82.5

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Utah St. 15 - 5 24 - 6 0.1 0.3 1.9 5.7 12.4 20.7 24.3 20.8 10.9 3.0
San Diego St. 16 - 4 21 - 8 0.0 0.3 1.6 6.4 14.4 23.3 25.2 19.0 8.2 1.7
New Mexico 15 - 5 23 - 7 0.0 0.2 1.5 5.3 12.8 21.6 26.2 20.2 10.2 2.1
Boise St. 11 - 9 18 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.8 10.9 19.6 25.3 21.6 12.7 4.5 0.6
Nevada 13 - 7 21 - 10 0.1 0.7 3.8 11.1 20.5 25.8 21.4 11.8 4.1 0.6
Grand Canyon 13 - 7 20 - 11 0.1 0.7 3.4 9.0 18.6 25.9 23.8 13.4 4.6 0.7
Colorado St. 9 - 11 17 - 13 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.9 11.9 20.9 25.6 20.3 11.1 3.5 0.5
Wyoming 7 - 13 15 - 15 0.1 1.5 7.7 17.7 25.3 23.5 15.4 6.7 1.8 0.3 0.0
UNLV 9 - 11 13 - 17 0.3 2.1 8.9 18.7 24.3 21.7 14.5 6.7 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Fresno St. 8 - 12 13 - 17 0.1 1.4 6.3 17.0 26.3 24.0 15.3 6.6 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
San Jose St. 3 - 17 7 - 23 7.4 23.5 29.5 22.2 11.8 4.2 1.2 0.2 0.1
Air Force 1 - 19 4 - 27 33.8 38.5 19.6 6.5 1.4 0.2 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Utah St. 34.2% 19.6 10.6 3.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
San Diego St. 54.1% 35.2 14.5 3.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
New Mexico 30.7% 15.9 10.9 3.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
Boise St. 0.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Nevada 5.7% 1.8 2.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Grand Canyon 6.4% 2.1 2.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0
Colorado St.
Wyoming
UNLV 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Fresno St.
San Jose St.
Air Force


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Utah St. 73.2% 30.2% 43.0% 10   0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.6 6.2 10.5 16.5 21.0 14.3 0.1 26.8 61.7%
San Diego St. 51.3% 22.4% 28.9% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 4.4 8.6 16.3 18.9 0.3 48.7 37.3%
New Mexico 56.1% 21.7% 34.4% 11   0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.6 4.3 9.3 18.2 21.4 0.3 43.9 44.0%
Boise St. 19.0% 8.8% 10.2% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.6 5.2 11.3 0.3 0.0 81.0 11.2%
Nevada 9.3% 6.8% 2.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 7.1 0.9 0.0 90.7 2.7%
Grand Canyon 9.5% 7.1% 2.4% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.2 7.2 0.7 90.5 2.6%
Colorado St. 1.8% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.3 0.1%
Wyoming 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.4 0.0%
UNLV 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.4 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.8 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.2 16.2 50.0 29.7 3.9 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 2.0 26.7 52.9 18.9 1.5 0.0
2nd Round 62.8% 0.8 37.2 47.8 13.8 1.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 16.8% 0.2 83.2 16.0 0.8 0.0
Elite Eight 5.5% 0.1 94.5 5.4 0.1
Final Four 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4 0.0
Final Game 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Utah St. 73.2% 12.2% 67.8% 33.1% 8.3% 2.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
San Diego St. 51.3% 13.4% 44.8% 17.9% 3.6% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
New Mexico 56.1% 16.9% 47.9% 19.0% 4.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Boise St. 19.0% 7.0% 15.2% 4.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Nevada 9.3% 2.2% 8.0% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grand Canyon 9.5% 2.1% 8.3% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado St. 1.8% 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%