Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
44 Utah St. 50.5%   11   7 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 8 14 - 6 +11.3      +5.9 55 +5.4 45 70.0 174 +13.4 38 0.0 1
46 Boise St. 48.4%   6 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 9 14 - 6 +11.0      +3.9 81 +7.1 23 65.2 292 +12.7 41 0.0 1
56 San Diego St. 31.7%   5 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 10 13 - 7 +10.2      +5.8 57 +4.4 61 70.6 153 +6.7 88 0.0 1
69 Colorado St. 16.2%   8 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 10 12 - 8 +8.0      +8.7 23 -0.7 187 60.7 358 +8.4 72 0.0 1
75 New Mexico 18.6%   7 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 10 12 - 8 +7.6      +4.0 80 +3.6 73 77.4 27 +11.8 50 0.0 1
95 Grand Canyon 5.2%   5 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 14 11 - 9 +5.3      +0.7 144 +4.7 56 70.3 166 +1.3 150 0.0 1
96 Nevada 5.6%   7 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 13 11 - 9 +5.3      +3.0 104 +2.3 101 66.1 275 +7.1 83 0.0 1
99 Wyoming 4.8%   7 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 10 +5.0      +3.0 102 +2.0 109 71.2 139 +4.7 107 0.0 1
124 UNLV 1.8%   4 - 5 0 - 0 14 - 16 9 - 11 +2.6      +2.6 110 0.0 165 78.4 20 +0.1 168 0.0 1
187 San Jose St. 0.2%   4 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 19 6 - 14 -1.8      -0.2 173 -1.6 224 63.8 317 -1.7 193 0.0 1
189 Fresno St. 0.2%   5 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 19 6 - 14 -1.9      -1.4 206 -0.4 175 73.0 96 -3.6 228 0.0 1
329 Air Force 0.0%   3 - 8 0 - 0 5 - 26 2 - 18 -9.8      -6.9 342 -2.9 268 62.5 347 -10.6 314 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sun, Dec 7 89 Stanford 74 124 UNLV 75   
Sun, Dec 7 96 Nevada 78 169 Washington St. 64   
Sun, Dec 7 329 Air Force 56 205 Navy 61   
Sun, Dec 7 198 Charlotte 53 44 Utah St. 79   
Tue, Dec 9 277 Long Beach St. 83 187 San Jose St. 89   
Tue, Dec 9 69 Colorado St. 76 267 Dartmouth 55   
Tue, Dec 9 282 South Dakota 79 99 Wyoming 106   
Wed, Dec 10 75 New Mexico 81 49 Virginia Commonwealth 78   
Wed, Dec 10 46 Boise St. 86 142 Duquesne 64   
Wed, Dec 10 251 Cal St. Northridge 89 189 Fresno St. 87   
Wed, Dec 10 220 Lamar 71 56 San Diego St. 89   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Dec 13 92 Illinois St. 70 44 Utah St. 76 71%   
Sat, Dec 13 142 Duquesne 73 96 Nevada 80 76%   
Sat, Dec 13 187 San Jose St. 70 89 Stanford 75 67%   
Sat, Dec 13 246 Tennessee St. 76 124 UNLV 86 84%   
Sat, Dec 13 239 Coastal Carolina 65 95 Grand Canyon 78 88%   
Sun, Dec 14 46 Boise St. 66 37 St. Mary's 67 54%   
Sun, Dec 14 178 Florida Gulf Coast 76 75 New Mexico 88 87%   
Mon, Dec 15 157 South Dakota St. 73 99 Wyoming 78 69%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Utah St. 3.0 32.4 21.0 14.7 10.4 7.4 5.6 3.8 2.6 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Boise St. 3.2 28.7 19.7 15.0 11.7 8.4 6.4 4.6 3.0 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
San Diego St. 3.5 24.5 19.3 15.2 11.9 9.7 7.2 5.4 3.6 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.0
Colorado St. 4.3 13.1 14.6 15.5 14.2 12.5 10.3 8.1 5.8 3.5 1.7 0.6 0.0
New Mexico 4.6 11.9 12.8 14.2 13.7 12.8 11.0 9.1 7.1 4.3 2.2 0.8 0.1
Grand Canyon 5.8 5.1 7.5 9.6 10.9 12.4 13.0 12.6 11.8 9.4 5.5 2.2 0.2
Nevada 5.8 4.5 7.1 9.2 11.4 12.5 13.6 13.0 11.9 9.3 5.2 2.2 0.2
Wyoming 6.1 4.1 6.2 8.5 10.4 11.6 13.1 13.6 13.1 10.4 6.3 2.5 0.2
UNLV 7.4 1.4 2.7 4.3 5.8 7.6 10.3 13.3 15.4 17.5 13.5 7.2 1.0
San Jose St. 9.4 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 2.3 4.0 5.9 9.6 15.7 25.7 27.9 6.4
Fresno St. 9.5 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.1 3.7 6.0 9.2 16.1 26.2 28.6 5.9
Air Force 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 5.1 18.1 74.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Utah St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.8 4.8 7.3 10.1 12.9 14.3 14.3 13.1 9.5 5.1 2.3 0.5
Boise St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.5 5.7 8.3 11.1 13.5 14.4 13.5 11.3 8.4 4.7 1.9 0.4
San Diego St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.3 4.4 6.3 9.2 12.1 13.9 14.1 13.2 10.2 7.0 3.5 1.4 0.3
Colorado St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.3 4.2 6.8 10.0 12.4 14.5 14.7 12.5 9.6 6.2 3.4 1.4 0.4 0.1
New Mexico 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.0 5.1 7.9 10.4 13.2 14.4 13.8 11.5 8.3 5.3 3.0 1.2 0.3 0.0
Grand Canyon 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.9 6.4 9.7 11.9 13.5 13.6 12.5 10.0 7.1 4.5 2.2 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Nevada 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.8 6.4 9.6 12.2 13.7 14.2 13.0 10.0 6.7 4.1 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Wyoming 10 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.3 4.6 7.3 10.4 13.1 13.8 13.6 12.1 9.1 6.0 3.5 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
UNLV 9 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.3 6.4 9.6 12.5 13.9 13.9 12.7 9.6 6.9 4.8 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 6 - 14 0.2 1.4 4.4 8.4 12.2 15.7 15.6 13.6 10.7 7.6 5.0 2.7 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fresno St. 6 - 14 0.2 1.4 4.0 8.2 12.9 15.6 16.2 13.7 10.9 7.4 4.5 2.6 1.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Air Force 2 - 18 14.1 24.9 23.9 17.8 10.5 4.9 2.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Utah St. 32.4% 21.8 8.1 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Boise St. 28.7% 19.3 7.2 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0
San Diego St. 24.5% 15.8 6.6 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Colorado St. 13.1% 7.5 4.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
New Mexico 11.9% 6.8 3.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
Grand Canyon 5.1% 2.6 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Nevada 4.5% 2.3 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Wyoming 4.1% 2.0 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
UNLV 1.4% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Fresno St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Air Force


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Utah St. 50.5% 24.0% 26.5% 11   0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.6 3.9 5.3 7.8 12.4 14.2 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 49.5 34.8%
Boise St. 48.4% 22.1% 26.4% 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.5 2.6 4.1 5.7 7.9 11.9 12.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 51.6 33.8%
San Diego St. 31.7% 18.7% 13.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.8 4.1 7.4 12.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 68.3 16.0%
Colorado St. 16.2% 10.2% 6.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.5 3.3 8.6 1.4 0.0 0.0 83.8 6.7%
New Mexico 18.6% 9.5% 9.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.2 4.5 8.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 81.4 10.1%
Grand Canyon 5.2% 4.7% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 2.5 1.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 94.8 0.4%
Nevada 5.6% 4.6% 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 3.0 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.4 1.1%
Wyoming 4.8% 4.3% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.2 0.6%
UNLV 1.8% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 98.3 0.1%
San Jose St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Utah St. 50.5% 9.5% 45.8% 22.2% 6.2% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Boise St. 48.4% 8.8% 44.0% 20.9% 5.2% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
San Diego St. 31.7% 5.9% 28.9% 12.4% 2.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Colorado St. 16.2% 3.6% 14.2% 4.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico 18.6% 4.9% 16.0% 5.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Grand Canyon 5.2% 0.3% 5.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nevada 5.6% 0.7% 5.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 4.8% 0.4% 4.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 1.8% 0.1% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.8 34.7 49.0 14.9 1.4 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.7 0.0 44.8 45.2 9.4 0.6 0.0
2nd Round 57.0% 0.7 43.0 45.2 11.2 0.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 15.9% 0.2 84.1 15.2 0.7 0.0
Elite Eight 5.1% 0.1 94.9 5.1 0.1
Final Four 1.5% 0.0 98.6 1.4 0.0
Final Game 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1