IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Richmond
Atlantic 10
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+2.0	#131
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	61.3	#343
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.0	#133

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+1.0	#133

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.1%	4.0%	1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.4%	0.6%	0.1%
Average Seed	11.0	10.9	11.6

.500 or above	63.5%	72.6%	43.8%
.500 or above in Conference	30.9%	35.9%	20.0%
Conference Champion	1.4%	1.8%	0.5%
Last Place in Conference	11.6%	9.0%	17.4%

First Four	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%
First Round	2.9%	3.8%	1.0%
Second Round	0.7%	1.0%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: East Carolina (Home) - 68.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 2	2 - 4	2 - 6
Quad 3	5 - 5	7 - 11
Quad 4	8 - 2	16 - 13

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2025	158	East Carolina	W	68-63	68%
Nov 11, 2025	226	William & Mary	W	77-68	79%
Nov 19, 2025	293	VMI	W	74-62	87%
Nov 22, 2025	307	Gardner-Webb	W	75-62	88%
Nov 27, 2025	142	Furman	W	67-66	52%
Dec 03, 2025	111	@ Belmont	L	69-74	33%
Dec 06, 2025	195	Old Dominion	W	70-63	73%
Dec 13, 2025	138	Southern Illinois	W	69-66	62%
Dec 17, 2025	224	@ Elon	W	67-64	59%
Dec 20, 2025	342	The Citadel	W	72-56	92%
Dec 28, 2025	313	Charleston Southern	W	73-59	88%
Dec 31, 2025	85	George Washington	L	67-68	45%
Jan 04, 2026	163	@ Fordham	L	70-71	48%
Jan 11, 2026	110	Saint Joseph's	W	67-66	53%
Jan 14, 2026	187	La Salle	W	72-65	72%
Jan 17, 2026	70	@ Saint Louis	L	63-72	23%
Jan 21, 2026	143	Rhode Island	W	72-68	63%
Jan 24, 2026	85	@ George Washington	L	64-71	27%
Jan 27, 2026	60	@ Virginia Commonwealth	L	60-70	20%
Jan 31, 2026	145	Davidson	W	68-64	63%
Feb 10, 2026	101	George Mason	L	63-64	50%
Feb 14, 2026	60	Virginia Commonwealth	L	63-67	36%
Feb 18, 2026	145	@ Davidson	L	65-67	45%
Feb 21, 2026	124	St. Bonaventure	W	65-62	59%
Feb 28, 2026	94	@ Loyola Chicago	L	62-69	29%
Mar 03, 2026	65	Dayton	L	64-68	37%
Mar 07, 2026	116	@ Duquesne	L	62-66	36%
Projected Record						15 - 12	7 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.1				1.4	1st
2nd											0.0	0.3	1.0	0.9	0.5	0.1					2.7	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.5	1.4	1.6	0.6	0.1						4.1	3rd
4th									0.0	0.2	1.8	2.4	0.7	0.0							5.2	4th
5th									0.1	1.8	3.4	1.4	0.1								6.8	5th
6th								0.0	1.2	3.5	2.1	0.2	0.0								7.1	6th
7th							0.0	0.9	4.1	3.1	0.5	0.0									8.7	7th
8th							0.3	3.2	4.3	1.0	0.0										8.8	8th
9th						0.3	2.3	5.2	2.1	0.1											9.9	9th
10th					0.1	1.6	4.9	3.0	0.2												9.9	10th
11th				0.1	1.2	4.3	3.8	0.7	0.0												10.1	11th
12th			0.1	1.1	3.6	4.0	1.1	0.0													9.9	12th
13th		0.2	1.1	2.8	3.2	1.4	0.1														8.8	13th
14th	0.4	1.3	2.2	1.8	0.7	0.1	0.0														6.5	14th

Total	0.4	1.5	3.4	5.8	8.8	11.6	12.6	12.9	12.1	9.9	8.3	5.6	3.6	1.9	1.1	0.4	0.1					Total

Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2	100.0%	0.1		0.1	0.0
15-3	76.5%	0.3		0.2	0.1	0.0
14-4	50.2%	0.5		0.3	0.2	0.1
13-5	19.6%	0.4		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	3.9%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0				0.0		0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	1.4%	1.4		0.7	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2	0.1%		69.9%	39.9%	30.1%	6.3			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0		0.0	0.0						0.0		50.0%
15-3	0.4%		64.8%	31.5%	33.3%	8.1					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0						0.1		48.6%
14-4	1.1%		39.4%	24.6%	14.9%	10.0								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2						0.7		19.7%
13-5	1.9%		18.5%	15.9%	2.6%	10.7									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.0					1.6		3.1%
12-6	3.6%		15.7%	14.4%	1.4%	11.1										0.0	0.0	0.4	0.1					3.0		1.6%
11-7	5.6%		8.6%	8.1%	0.5%	11.6												0.3	0.2	0.0				5.1		0.5%
10-8	8.3%		5.5%	5.5%		11.6												0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0			7.9
9-9	9.9%		2.1%	2.1%		11.9												0.1	0.1	0.0				9.6
8-10	12.1%		1.0%	1.0%		12.4												0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0			12.0
7-11	12.9%		0.5%	0.5%		12.4													0.0	0.0				12.9
6-12	12.6%		0.1%	0.1%		14.0														0.0		0.0		12.6
5-13	11.6%		0.4%	0.4%		14.7															0.0	0.0		11.6
4-14	8.8%		0.2%	0.2%		15.5																0.0	0.0	8.8
3-15	5.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	5.8
2-16	3.4%																							3.4
1-17	1.5%																							1.5
0-18	0.4%																							0.4

Total	100%		3.1%	2.6%	0.4%	11.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.3	1.4	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	96.9		0.4%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	3.8		25.0	25.0		50.0