Big Sky
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
97 Weber St. 39.1%   14   5 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 7 16 - 4 +5.3      +3.5 84 +1.8 106 71.5 118 +13.0 38 0.0 1
143 Southern Utah 19.2%   2 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 11 14 - 6 +1.9      +1.9 117 +0.1 172 72.9 89 -0.1 176 0.0 1
170 Montana 11.2%   3 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 12 12 - 8 -0.3      +0.6 156 -0.9 209 64.5 294 -2.1 207 0.0 1
179 Northern Colorado 10.3%   2 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 14 12 - 8 -0.7      +1.9 115 -2.7 260 68.5 206 -1.1 197 0.0 1
184 Montana St. 9.2%   2 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 12 12 - 8 -1.1      +2.7 99 -3.9 291 67.9 223 -2.7 218 0.0 1
209 Eastern Washington 7.7%   2 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 14 11 - 9 -2.1      -0.7 196 -1.4 226 77.6 29 +0.6 167 0.0 1
268 Portland St. 2.3%   0 - 3 0 - 0 10 - 16 9 - 11 -6.0      -4.7 298 -1.3 219 71.6 114 -15.6 343 0.0 1
290 Sacramento St. 1.2%   2 - 3 0 - 0 10 - 17 8 - 12 -7.3      -4.9 299 -2.4 252 71.0 131 -1.2 200 0.0 1
307 Idaho St. 0.7%   0 - 5 0 - 0 7 - 20 7 - 13 -8.1      -5.3 311 -2.8 265 62.2 330 -14.4 339 0.0 1
316 Northern Arizona 0.7%   2 - 4 0 - 0 9 - 20 7 - 13 -8.8      -2.9 263 -5.9 328 66.8 243 -6.2 263 0.0 1
350 Idaho 0.0%   0 - 6 0 - 0 3 - 26 3 - 17 -14.8      -7.1 346 -7.6 347 75.1 56 -18.1 351 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Weber St. 1.9 56.5 20.6 11.0 5.5 3.2 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Southern Utah 3.0 24.0 24.8 18.4 12.4 8.6 5.7 3.0 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.0
Montana 4.0 12.5 16.7 16.0 16.0 14.8 9.4 6.3 4.9 2.3 1.1 0.2
Northern Colorado 4.2 10.4 15.2 17.3 16.2 13.8 10.7 8.1 4.9 2.2 1.1 0.1
Montana St. 4.4 9.6 13.8 14.6 15.5 15.1 12.2 9.9 4.8 3.0 1.3 0.3
Eastern Washington 4.9 6.2 12.1 12.8 14.3 15.4 13.5 10.9 7.6 4.5 2.0 0.5
Portland St. 6.9 1.3 3.4 5.2 8.2 9.8 13.2 15.8 15.2 13.1 11.2 3.7
Sacramento St. 7.6 0.6 1.6 3.1 4.5 8.2 11.9 14.7 16.9 16.6 15.5 6.3
Idaho St. 7.8 0.5 1.5 2.3 4.6 5.5 9.6 14.9 17.2 18.9 17.8 7.2
Northern Arizona 8.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 3.3 5.5 9.3 13.6 17.5 20.5 18.6 9.5
Idaho 10.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.3 5.8 10.5 23.6 56.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Weber St. 16 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.4 2.9 4.7 7.3 10.9 14.4 15.8 16.8 13.3 8.1 3.2
Southern Utah 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 2.2 3.6 4.9 6.9 10.9 13.1 14.1 14.8 12.3 8.4 4.6 1.9 0.5
Montana 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.0 4.6 7.3 8.9 11.8 13.3 12.9 12.1 9.8 6.9 3.6 2.0 1.0 0.1
Northern Colorado 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.6 2.8 6.0 6.7 10.7 11.3 14.2 13.5 11.8 8.5 6.1 3.6 1.5 0.2 0.1
Montana St. 12 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.3 1.8 3.6 6.3 9.7 10.2 12.7 13.0 12.0 10.3 8.0 5.4 3.4 1.3 0.3 0.1
Eastern Washington 11 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.0 5.9 8.4 10.1 11.6 12.3 11.6 11.8 9.2 6.5 3.9 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.0
Portland St. 9 - 11 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.9 5.2 7.7 9.8 12.3 12.4 11.3 11.2 8.9 6.4 4.6 3.2 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Sacramento St. 8 - 12 0.1 0.5 2.3 4.1 8.0 10.2 12.6 13.3 12.6 10.8 9.9 6.5 4.2 2.7 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.0
Idaho St. 7 - 13 0.1 1.0 2.7 5.3 9.1 11.3 13.6 14.5 12.8 9.7 7.1 4.5 4.3 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Northern Arizona 7 - 13 0.2 1.0 3.5 6.9 9.9 12.5 14.1 13.5 12.8 10.4 6.3 4.4 2.3 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Idaho 3 - 17 6.6 13.5 18.4 19.0 15.4 11.8 7.1 4.3 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Weber St. 56.5% 43.8 10.1 2.3 0.4
Southern Utah 24.0% 15.6 6.6 1.6 0.2
Montana 12.5% 7.3 3.5 1.4 0.3
Northern Colorado 10.4% 5.7 3.1 1.3 0.2
Montana St. 9.6% 5.1 3.4 0.9 0.3
Eastern Washington 6.2% 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.2
Portland St. 1.3% 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Sacramento St. 0.6% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Idaho St. 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Northern Arizona 0.3% 0.2 0.1 0.1
Idaho


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Weber St. 39.1% 37.7% 1.4% 14   0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.8 2.9 10.4 11.8 8.0 3.0 0.3 60.9 2.3%
Southern Utah 19.2% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.5 5.3 7.0 2.3 80.8 0.0%
Montana 11.2% 11.2% 0.0% 0.4 0.9 3.0 4.3 2.6 88.8 0.0%
Northern Colorado 10.3% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.5 4.0 2.7 89.7 0.0%
Montana St. 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.8 2.7 90.8 0.0%
Eastern Washington 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 3.0 2.6 92.4 0.0%
Portland St. 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.6 97.7 0.0%
Sacramento St. 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 98.8 0.0%
Idaho St. 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 99.3 0.0%
Northern Arizona 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 99.3 0.0%
Idaho 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Weber St. 39.1% 0.9% 38.7% 8.3% 2.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Southern Utah 19.2% 0.7% 18.9% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 11.2% 0.9% 10.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 10.3% 0.9% 9.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 9.2% 1.0% 8.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 7.7% 1.2% 7.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 2.3% 1.2% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 1.2% 0.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.5 1.5
1st Round 96.6% 1.0 3.4 95.7 1.0
2nd Round 13.1% 0.1 86.9 13.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.5% 0.0 96.5 3.5
Elite Eight 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0