Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
144 Portland St. 24.9%   14   14 - 7 11 - 2 +0.8      -3.5 264 +4.3 62 68.9 166 +2.6 121 +6.2 1
147 Montana St. 22.2%   12 - 11 9 - 4 +0.6      0.0 163 +0.5 153 65.2 271 -0.1 160 +2.1 2
156 Northern Colorado 15.1%   14 - 10 7 - 7 -0.1      +1.0 138 -1.1 206 70.8 118 -0.3 167 -3.1 6
176 Montana 13.0%   11 - 11 8 - 5 -1.1      -1.6 216 +0.5 156 72.1 84 -1.5 184 -0.5 3
186 Idaho 8.6%   11 - 12 6 - 7 -1.6      -0.8 181 -0.9 198 68.4 185 -2.2 202 -4.1 7
203 Eastern Washington 7.8%   8 - 17 7 - 6 -2.7      +0.8 143 -3.5 278 69.3 156 -4.7 243 -1.6 4
228 Weber St. 5.2%   11 - 14 7 - 7 -3.8      +0.2 155 -4.0 295 70.9 115 -4.3 237 -3.1 5
268 Sacramento St. 1.4%   6 - 16 5 - 8 -6.0      -1.9 225 -4.1 299 77.8 14 -6.2 267 -5.1 8
269 Idaho St. 1.4%   7 - 17 3 - 11 -6.1      0.0 165 -6.0 334 63.3 325 -6.6 274 -9.9 10
311 Northern Arizona 0.4%   7 - 17 4 - 10 -9.0      -1.8 219 -7.2 350 62.3 338 -7.9 294 -8.4 9


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Feb 19 186 Idaho 68 144 Portland St. 73 70%   
Thu, Feb 19 147 Montana St. 76 228 Weber St. 75 55%   
Thu, Feb 19 203 Eastern Washington 83 268 Sacramento St. 82 51%   
Thu, Feb 19 269 Idaho St. 74 176 Montana 76 58%   
Sat, Feb 21 203 Eastern Washington 70 144 Portland St. 76 73%   
Sat, Feb 21 176 Montana 78 228 Weber St. 79 51%   
Sat, Feb 21 186 Idaho 81 268 Sacramento St. 79 56%   
Sat, Feb 21 269 Idaho St. 70 147 Montana St. 74 64%   
Sat, Feb 21 311 Northern Arizona 69 156 Northern Colorado 81 86%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Portland St. 1.1 90.3 8.9 0.8 0.0
Montana St. 1.9 24.9 65.4 7.9 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Northern Colorado 4.5 0.0 3.3 22.8 27.0 24.6 14.2 7.4 0.7
Montana 3.1 2.8 22.2 48.9 16.1 6.5 2.6 0.9 0.1
Idaho 5.5 0.0 1.0 8.7 18.0 22.5 21.6 20.1 7.8 0.2 0.0
Eastern Washington 4.3 0.4 6.1 24.8 31.1 19.2 11.1 6.3 1.1
Weber St. 5.4 0.0 1.5 8.2 14.5 23.8 28.0 21.0 3.0
Sacramento St. 7.4 0.1 0.6 2.3 5.1 10.1 20.0 55.3 6.0 0.6
Idaho St. 9.2 0.1 1.3 13.7 49.4 35.5
Northern Arizona 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 8.3 59.4 31.3

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Portland St. 14 - 4 17 - 9 1.0 7.3 22.0 34.8 26.7 8.2
Montana St. 12 - 6 15 - 13 0.6 4.5 16.5 31.6 32.6 14.2
Northern Colorado 9 - 9 16 - 12 1.7 14.4 34.8 35.9 13.1
Montana 11 - 7 14 - 13 2.1 11.8 27.3 33.0 20.7 5.1
Idaho 9 - 9 14 - 14 1.9 12.7 29.0 33.9 18.5 4.0
Eastern Washington 10 - 8 11 - 19 2.0 12.3 29.0 33.6 18.9 4.2
Weber St. 9 - 9 13 - 16 12.4 31.6 35.5 17.0 3.5
Sacramento St. 7 - 11 8 - 19 8.1 26.4 34.7 23.0 7.0 0.9
Idaho St. 5 - 13 9 - 19 12.3 31.9 34.1 17.8 3.9
Northern Arizona 5 - 13 8 - 20 43.8 39.1 14.3 2.6 0.2

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Portland St. 90.3% 73.8 15.2 1.3 0.1 0.0
Montana St. 24.9% 8.9 14.6 1.2 0.1 0.0
Northern Colorado 0.0% 0.0
Montana 2.8% 0.3 1.3 1.1 0.1
Idaho 0.0% 0.0
Eastern Washington 0.4% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Weber St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sacramento St.
Idaho St.
Northern Arizona


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Portland St. 24.9% 24.9% 0.0% 14   0.0 1.2 8.6 12.0 3.0 0.0 75.1 0.0%
Montana St. 22.2% 22.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 5.9 9.8 5.4 0.4 77.8 0.0%
Northern Colorado 15.1% 15.1% 0.0% 0.5 4.6 7.2 2.6 0.1 84.9 0.0%
Montana 13.0% 13.0% 0.0% 0.1 1.2 4.0 6.3 1.4 87.0 0.0%
Idaho 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 2.3 4.6 1.1 91.4 0.0%
Eastern Washington 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 0.4 7.4 92.2 0.0%
Weber St. 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.4 94.8 0.0%
Sacramento St. 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 1.4 98.6 0.0%
Idaho St. 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 1.4 98.6 0.0%
Northern Arizona 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 95.3% 1.0 4.7 95.3
2nd Round 2.3% 0.0 97.7 2.3
Sweet Sixteen 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Portland St. 24.9% 0.0% 24.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 22.2% 0.0% 22.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 15.1% 0.0% 15.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 13.0% 0.5% 12.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 8.6% 0.3% 8.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 7.8% 6.7% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 5.2% 2.2% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 1.4% 1.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 1.4% 1.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%