Big Sky
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
120 Montana St. 45.4%   15   13 - 8 8 - 2 19 - 10 14 - 4 +2.7      +0.1 169 +2.6 100 68.0 185 +2.4 134 +4.0 2
161 Eastern Washington 20.5%   15 - 7 10 - 0 20 - 10 15 - 3 +0.3      +1.8 122 -1.5 225 72.2 78 +3.5 118 +13.1 1
189 Montana 12.2%   9 - 12 4 - 6 14 - 15 9 - 9 -1.1      +1.2 136 -2.4 246 61.4 337 -3.5 238 -5.6 6
213 Weber St. 8.1%   9 - 11 6 - 3 14 - 15 11 - 7 -2.2      -3.1 271 +0.9 142 65.3 269 -1.9 207 +0.5 3
219 Sacramento St. 7.0%   10 - 10 5 - 4 15 - 14 10 - 8 -2.5      -0.6 194 -1.9 238 60.0 350 -1.3 195 -2.6 5
247 Portland St. 3.0%   7 - 13 3 - 6 11 - 18 7 - 11 -4.5      -1.6 227 -2.9 261 75.4 33 -3.4 236 -7.1 7
268 Northern Colorado 1.8%   7 - 13 2 - 7 11 - 18 6 - 12 -5.6      0.0 172 -5.6 325 72.9 65 -4.7 256 -9.9 8
283 Idaho St. 0.9%   6 - 14 5 - 4 9 - 20 8 - 10 -6.6      -2.9 267 -3.7 285 64.5 281 -8.7 309 -1.4 4
293 Northern Arizona 0.8%   4 - 16 2 - 7 7 - 22 5 - 13 -7.0      -1.9 238 -5.1 318 67.2 208 -8.2 302 -10.6 9
309 Idaho 0.4%   6 - 15 2 - 8 9 - 20 5 - 13 -8.0      -0.9 201 -7.2 349 67.0 216 -9.5 320 -10.7 10






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Montana St. 1.7 37.3 55.9 5.8 0.8 0.1 0.0
Eastern Washington 1.2 78.0 20.2 1.6 0.1
Montana 4.9 0.0 0.9 15.0 26.5 26.6 18.2 8.6 3.2 0.8 0.2
Weber St. 3.4 2.5 12.8 50.2 20.1 9.0 4.0 1.3 0.3 0.0
Sacramento St. 4.2 0.4 4.2 29.5 31.5 18.7 9.9 4.3 1.2 0.3 0.0
Portland St. 6.4 0.0 0.1 3.3 9.1 14.9 21.7 26.3 15.0 7.2 2.4
Northern Colorado 7.7 0.0 0.5 2.2 5.5 11.2 20.1 27.9 20.8 11.9
Idaho St. 5.3 0.1 1.1 11.5 19.4 23.6 23.3 14.0 5.3 1.5 0.3
Northern Arizona 8.4 0.2 0.8 2.7 6.5 13.3 23.7 28.9 23.8
Idaho 8.8 0.1 0.4 1.4 4.0 9.6 20.1 29.1 35.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Montana St. 14 - 4 0.1 0.7 3.4 10.4 22.0 30.3 24.3 8.7
Eastern Washington 15 - 3 0.1 0.7 3.4 10.2 20.3 27.0 23.2 12.2 2.9
Montana 9 - 9 0.1 0.8 4.1 11.6 21.9 27.7 22.2 10.0 1.7
Weber St. 11 - 7 0.2 1.5 5.8 13.1 21.0 23.9 19.1 10.9 3.9 0.7
Sacramento St. 10 - 8 0.2 1.5 5.7 14.2 22.4 24.4 18.8 9.7 2.8 0.3
Portland St. 7 - 11 0.4 2.7 9.5 18.6 24.7 22.6 13.9 5.9 1.5 0.1
Northern Colorado 6 - 12 0.7 4.5 12.6 21.9 25.4 20.0 10.6 3.5 0.7 0.1
Idaho St. 8 - 10 1.8 7.9 17.9 24.4 22.7 15.3 7.2 2.4 0.5 0.0
Northern Arizona 5 - 13 2.3 9.6 20.2 25.8 22.4 12.8 5.3 1.3 0.2 0.0
Idaho 5 - 13 3.8 14.8 25.5 26.4 18.3 8.3 2.4 0.5 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Montana St. 37.3% 20.8 15.8 0.8 0.0
Eastern Washington 78.0% 61.1 16.1 0.8 0.0
Montana 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Weber St. 2.5% 0.6 1.3 0.6 0.0
Sacramento St. 0.4% 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0
Portland St. 0.0% 0.0
Northern Colorado
Idaho St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northern Arizona
Idaho


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Montana St. 45.4% 45.4% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.2 2.5 14.0 21.8 6.7 0.2 54.6 0.0%
Eastern Washington 20.5% 20.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 2.2 9.7 7.7 0.8 79.5 0.0%
Montana 12.2% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 3.3 8.5 87.8 0.0%
Weber St. 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.3 5.3 91.9 0.0%
Sacramento St. 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.9 3.5 93.0 0.0%
Portland St. 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.1 2.9 97.0 0.0%
Northern Colorado 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 1.7 98.2 0.0%
Idaho St. 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.9 99.1 0.0%
Northern Arizona 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.8 99.2 0.0%
Idaho 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Montana St. 45.4% 0.0% 45.4% 5.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 20.5% 0.1% 20.5% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 12.2% 5.7% 10.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 8.1% 3.6% 6.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 7.0% 2.0% 6.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 3.0% 2.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 1.8% 1.7% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 0.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 92.4% 0.9 7.6 92.4
2nd Round 7.1% 0.1 92.9 7.1
Sweet Sixteen 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0