Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
160 Idaho St. 16.0%   4 - 5 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 8 -0.2      -0.2 172 -0.1 167 62.7 341 0.0 170 0.0 1
161 Northern Colorado 16.5%   14   6 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 10 11 - 7 -0.3      +0.4 157 -0.6 185 70.8 150 +5.2 102 0.0 1
165 Montana St. 15.6%   2 - 6 0 - 0 13 - 15 10 - 8 -0.4      -0.6 183 +0.2 157 65.2 293 -5.9 255 0.0 1
176 Portland St. 13.0%   3 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 13 10 - 8 -1.2      -3.4 259 +2.2 103 70.2 168 -1.5 191 0.0 1
177 Idaho 12.7%   4 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 8 -1.2      +1.9 122 -3.1 274 66.0 277 +1.2 153 0.0 1
202 Montana 8.2%   3 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 15 9 - 9 -2.7      +0.2 161 -3.0 269 73.0 94 -4.2 237 0.0 1
215 Weber St. 6.6%   4 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 10 -3.3      -1.8 220 -1.5 217 72.2 116 -4.0 234 0.0 1
236 Eastern Washington 5.0%   1 - 7 0 - 0 10 - 20 8 - 10 -4.2      +0.2 163 -4.4 321 72.2 120 -12.9 333 0.0 1
258 Northern Arizona 3.5%   2 - 5 0 - 0 10 - 18 7 - 11 -5.4      -3.3 257 -2.1 236 66.6 261 -5.1 246 0.0 1
276 Sacramento St. 2.8%   1 - 6 0 - 0 8 - 19 7 - 11 -6.1      -4.0 273 -2.1 239 76.7 33 -7.9 288 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Dec 9 60 Arizona St. 73 258 Northern Arizona 48   
Wed, Dec 10 160 Idaho St. 69 87 Utah Valley 73   
Wed, Dec 10 177 Idaho 65 59 Notre Dame 80   
Wed, Dec 10 343 UMKC 60 215 Weber St. 64   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Dec 12 132 California Baptist 76 236 Eastern Washington 73 62%   
Sat, Dec 13 165 Montana St. 67 168 Oregon St. 70 61%   
Sat, Dec 13 258 Northern Arizona 74 257 San Diego 77 62%   
Tue, Dec 16 250 Cal Poly 78 165 Montana St. 79 56%   
Tue, Dec 16 161 Northern Colorado 65 21 Texas Tech 84 95%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Idaho St. 4.0 19.5 16.6 14.4 11.9 10.1 8.6 7.1 5.7 3.8 2.2
Northern Colorado 3.8 22.7 16.8 13.6 11.6 10.0 7.9 6.3 5.2 3.7 2.3
Montana St. 3.9 21.0 16.4 13.7 11.9 10.3 8.2 7.0 5.2 4.0 2.1
Portland St. 4.4 17.7 14.5 12.4 11.5 10.3 9.2 8.3 6.9 5.7 3.6
Idaho 4.2 18.2 15.5 13.6 12.0 10.4 9.3 7.4 6.3 4.5 2.9
Montana 5.3 9.5 10.4 11.0 11.3 11.2 11.1 10.7 9.7 8.6 6.3
Weber St. 5.7 6.9 8.8 9.8 10.6 11.5 11.4 11.6 11.3 10.1 8.1
Eastern Washington 6.1 5.4 6.6 8.1 9.4 10.3 11.2 11.8 13.2 12.5 11.5
Northern Arizona 6.8 3.2 4.7 5.8 7.2 9.1 10.2 12.1 13.9 16.1 17.6
Sacramento St. 7.2 2.4 3.6 4.8 6.1 7.5 9.4 11.9 14.4 17.2 22.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Idaho St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.6 4.6 7.2 9.8 11.9 13.4 14.0 12.2 9.7 6.7 3.7 1.8 0.6 0.1
Northern Colorado 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.2 6.5 9.1 11.0 13.2 13.7 12.4 10.0 7.5 4.7 2.4 0.8 0.2
Montana St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.5 4.6 6.9 9.3 12.0 13.2 13.5 12.1 9.9 6.9 4.4 2.0 0.6 0.1
Portland St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.7 6.0 8.4 10.5 12.3 12.6 12.3 10.9 8.2 5.9 3.2 1.7 0.6 0.1
Idaho 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.6 3.1 5.2 7.6 10.2 12.5 13.3 13.1 11.6 9.0 6.2 3.3 1.6 0.6 0.1
Montana 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.8 6.2 8.9 11.0 12.6 13.1 12.7 10.5 8.2 5.0 3.0 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
Weber St. 8 - 10 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.4 4.6 7.3 9.9 12.5 13.4 13.3 11.7 9.2 6.7 4.0 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Eastern Washington 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.5 6.3 9.3 11.6 13.3 13.1 12.2 10.1 7.6 5.0 3.1 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Northern Arizona 7 - 11 0.2 1.2 3.1 6.0 8.6 11.6 12.9 13.5 12.6 10.5 7.8 5.6 3.2 1.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Sacramento St. 7 - 11 0.4 1.9 4.4 7.2 10.3 12.7 13.4 13.4 11.8 8.9 6.5 4.4 2.5 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Idaho St. 19.5% 12.4 5.1 1.5 0.4 0.1
Northern Colorado 22.7% 15.0 5.8 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Montana St. 21.0% 13.5 5.6 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Portland St. 17.7% 11.1 4.7 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Idaho 18.2% 11.6 4.7 1.5 0.4 0.1
Montana 9.5% 5.5 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Weber St. 6.9% 3.7 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Eastern Washington 5.4% 2.9 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 3.2% 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Sacramento St. 2.4% 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Idaho St. 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.3 5.6 4.7 1.6 84.0 0.0%
Northern Colorado 16.5% 16.5% 0.0% 14   0.2 1.5 4.5 6.2 3.5 0.6 83.5 0.0%
Montana St. 15.6% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.1 4.3 5.0 3.7 84.4 0.0%
Portland St. 13.0% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 4.1 4.1 1.6 87.0 0.0%
Idaho 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.5 4.0 1.3 87.4 0.0%
Montana 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 3.1 2.3 91.8 0.0%
Weber St. 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.6 2.3 93.4 0.0%
Eastern Washington 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 3.5 95.0 0.0%
Northern Arizona 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.8 96.5 0.0%
Sacramento St. 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.9 97.2 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Idaho St. 16.0% 0.7% 15.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 16.5% 0.2% 16.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 15.6% 2.2% 14.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 13.0% 0.8% 12.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 12.7% 0.5% 12.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 8.2% 1.3% 7.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 6.6% 1.2% 6.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 5.0% 2.9% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 3.5% 1.3% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 2.8% 1.5% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 95.1% 1.0 4.9 95.1
2nd Round 3.7% 0.0 96.3 3.7
Sweet Sixteen 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0