Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
122 Montana St. 33.5%   15   3 - 5 0 - 0 18 - 12 13 - 5 +2.3      +1.7 132 +0.7 150 67.0 234 -3.5 227 0.0 1
180 Northern Colorado 16.0%   3 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 12 11 - 7 -1.0      +1.8 129 -2.8 267 73.1 73 +1.8 143 0.0 1
190 Montana 15.0%   4 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 13 11 - 7 -1.3      -0.5 187 -0.9 197 69.7 164 +6.8 86 0.0 1
210 Weber St. 11.5%   2 - 5 0 - 0 14 - 15 10 - 8 -2.3      -0.6 189 -1.7 224 65.2 286 -4.5 241 0.0 1
239 Eastern Washington 6.3%   2 - 7 0 - 0 11 - 18 9 - 9 -4.2      +1.6 133 -5.8 339 71.6 104 -5.6 260 0.0 1
252 Idaho St. 5.5%   1 - 5 0 - 0 10 - 16 8 - 10 -4.9      -3.1 255 -1.8 230 61.9 340 -7.7 290 0.0 1
256 Portland St. 4.6%   3 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 10 -5.3      -1.2 206 -4.0 305 73.8 62 -1.0 184 0.0 1
265 Idaho 3.9%   2 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 10 -5.9      +0.1 172 -6.0 347 63.3 320 -6.3 268 0.0 1
301 Northern Arizona 2.5%   3 - 3 0 - 0 11 - 16 7 - 11 -7.3      -2.6 241 -4.7 320 66.2 260 -4.9 246 0.0 1
320 Sacramento St. 1.2%   1 - 6 0 - 0 8 - 20 6 - 12 -8.9      -6.3 340 -2.6 258 62.0 338 -15.5 354 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Montana St. 2.2 49.0 21.8 12.2 7.2 4.4 2.6 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.1
Northern Colorado 3.6 20.3 19.8 16.1 13.1 10.3 7.6 5.6 3.8 2.3 1.2
Montana 3.7 18.6 19.2 16.1 12.9 10.8 8.0 6.0 4.1 3.0 1.3
Weber St. 4.3 13.4 15.7 15.4 13.6 12.0 9.8 7.8 6.0 4.1 2.3
Eastern Washington 5.3 6.2 9.5 11.9 13.3 13.1 12.6 11.5 9.8 7.4 4.7
Idaho St. 5.7 5.2 8.0 9.9 10.9 12.0 12.7 12.3 11.7 9.9 7.4
Portland St. 5.9 4.4 6.8 9.5 10.8 12.1 12.6 13.2 12.2 11.1 7.6
Idaho 6.3 3.2 5.7 7.7 9.8 11.1 12.7 13.2 13.6 12.8 10.2
Northern Arizona 7.0 1.8 3.7 5.2 7.3 8.9 11.0 13.1 15.1 16.7 17.1
Sacramento St. 7.8 0.7 1.7 2.8 4.4 6.2 8.8 11.4 15.6 20.1 28.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Montana St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.4 4.5 7.0 10.5 13.4 15.2 15.9 13.3 9.3 5.0 1.4
Northern Colorado 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 3.3 5.3 8.0 10.7 12.6 13.6 13.6 11.4 8.5 5.7 2.8 1.1 0.2
Montana 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.7 5.8 8.4 11.0 12.8 13.8 13.3 10.6 8.3 4.8 2.6 1.0 0.2
Weber St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.2 5.5 7.8 10.3 12.5 13.1 12.9 11.8 8.7 6.0 3.4 1.6 0.5 0.1
Eastern Washington 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.5 6.1 8.8 11.2 13.3 13.5 13.0 10.6 7.6 4.8 2.8 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Idaho St. 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.0 4.9 7.9 10.3 12.5 13.2 12.5 11.0 9.0 6.2 3.9 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Portland St. 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.1 5.7 8.1 10.9 13.1 13.7 12.7 10.5 8.2 5.7 3.4 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Idaho 8 - 10 0.1 0.8 1.7 4.2 6.9 9.8 12.2 13.4 13.1 12.1 9.7 6.9 4.5 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 7 - 11 0.3 1.5 3.6 6.9 10.0 12.2 13.4 13.6 11.7 9.5 7.0 4.7 2.9 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Sacramento St. 6 - 12 0.9 2.8 6.8 10.4 13.5 14.8 14.1 12.0 9.4 6.4 4.2 2.3 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Montana St. 49.0% 36.9 9.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Northern Colorado 20.3% 12.8 5.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Montana 18.6% 11.8 5.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Weber St. 13.4% 8.1 4.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Eastern Washington 6.2% 3.4 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Idaho St. 5.2% 2.9 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
Portland St. 4.4% 2.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Idaho 3.2% 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 1.8% 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sacramento St. 0.7% 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Montana St. 33.5% 33.5% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.4 9.0 10.3 7.6 2.8 66.5 0.0%
Northern Colorado 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.1 4.7 5.1 2.1 84.0 0.0%
Montana 15.0% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.2 4.9 4.6 1.3 85.0 0.0%
Weber St. 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.5 4.1 3.6 88.5 0.0%
Eastern Washington 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.7 3.8 93.7 0.0%
Idaho St. 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.2 94.5 0.0%
Portland St. 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.0 95.4 0.0%
Idaho 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.6 96.1 0.0%
Northern Arizona 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 97.5 0.0%
Sacramento St. 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.1 98.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Montana St. 33.5% 1.0% 33.1% 3.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 16.0% 0.8% 15.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 15.0% 0.6% 14.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 11.5% 2.0% 10.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 6.3% 2.8% 5.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 5.5% 2.0% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 4.6% 1.1% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 3.9% 1.9% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 2.5% 1.0% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 1.2% 1.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 94.0% 0.9 6.0 94.0
2nd Round 6.0% 0.1 94.0 6.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0