Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
145 Portland St. 24.7%   14   14 - 7 11 - 2 +0.8      -3.5 265 +4.3 60 68.9 169 +2.6 119 +6.2 1
147 Montana St. 21.5%   12 - 11 9 - 4 +0.5      0.0 161 +0.5 156 65.2 271 -0.1 159 +2.0 2
158 Northern Colorado 15.4%   14 - 10 7 - 7 -0.1      +1.1 134 -1.2 211 70.8 118 -0.3 166 -3.2 6
176 Montana 13.3%   11 - 11 8 - 5 -1.1      -1.5 208 +0.4 160 72.1 86 -1.5 186 -0.5 3
185 Idaho 9.1%   11 - 12 6 - 7 -1.6      -0.7 184 -0.9 203 68.4 188 -2.2 203 -4.1 7
208 Eastern Washington 7.9%   8 - 17 7 - 6 -2.7      +0.8 142 -3.5 279 69.3 160 -4.8 245 -1.7 4
230 Weber St. 5.1%   11 - 14 7 - 7 -3.8      +0.2 156 -4.0 297 70.8 117 -4.3 237 -3.1 5
268 Sacramento St. 1.4%   6 - 16 5 - 8 -6.0      -1.9 222 -4.1 299 77.8 13 -6.2 266 -5.2 8
270 Idaho St. 1.4%   7 - 17 3 - 11 -6.1      -0.1 165 -6.0 334 63.3 323 -6.6 276 -9.9 10
309 Northern Arizona 0.3%   7 - 17 4 - 10 -8.9      -1.8 217 -7.1 350 62.3 335 -7.9 294 -8.4 9


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Thu, Feb 12 309 Northern Arizona 68 145 Portland St. 77   
Thu, Feb 12 208 Eastern Washington 88 270 Idaho St. 75   
Thu, Feb 12 158 Northern Colorado 95 268 Sacramento St. 79   
Thu, Feb 12 185 Idaho 72 230 Weber St. 83   
Sat, Feb 14 158 Northern Colorado 77 145 Portland St. 65   
Sat, Feb 14 176 Montana 71 147 Montana St. 82   
Sat, Feb 14 309 Northern Arizona 79 268 Sacramento St. 74   
Sat, Feb 14 208 Eastern Washington 84 230 Weber St. 66   
Sat, Feb 14 185 Idaho 99 270 Idaho St. 69   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Feb 19 185 Idaho 68 145 Portland St. 73 70%   
Thu, Feb 19 147 Montana St. 76 230 Weber St. 74 55%   
Thu, Feb 19 208 Eastern Washington 84 268 Sacramento St. 83 51%   
Thu, Feb 19 270 Idaho St. 74 176 Montana 76 58%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Portland St. 1.1 90.3 8.9 0.7 0.1
Montana St. 1.9 24.8 65.0 8.3 1.6 0.3 0.1
Northern Colorado 4.5 0.0 3.5 22.9 27.3 24.8 13.6 7.3 0.7
Montana 3.1 2.7 22.1 48.5 16.9 6.1 2.6 0.8 0.1
Idaho 5.5 0.0 1.1 8.7 17.7 22.7 21.7 20.7 7.2 0.2
Eastern Washington 4.3 0.4 5.9 25.3 30.8 19.4 10.9 6.2 1.2 0.0
Weber St. 5.4 0.0 1.5 8.0 14.8 23.3 28.1 21.2 3.1
Sacramento St. 7.4 0.1 0.7 2.2 5.2 10.4 19.4 55.6 5.8 0.6
Idaho St. 9.2 0.1 1.1 13.7 50.4 34.7
Northern Arizona 9.2 0.1 0.2 0.9 8.1 58.4 32.4

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Portland St. 14 - 4 17 - 9 1.0 6.8 22.0 34.5 27.1 8.5
Montana St. 12 - 6 15 - 13 0.7 4.5 17.0 31.3 32.2 14.4
Northern Colorado 9 - 9 16 - 12 1.8 14.1 35.2 35.7 13.3
Montana 11 - 7 14 - 13 2.0 12.0 28.2 32.3 20.2 5.2
Idaho 9 - 9 14 - 14 1.7 12.4 30.3 33.3 18.3 4.0
Eastern Washington 10 - 8 11 - 19 1.9 12.4 29.0 33.4 19.3 4.0
Weber St. 9 - 9 13 - 16 12.5 32.2 34.6 17.5 3.1
Sacramento St. 7 - 11 8 - 19 8.0 26.8 34.6 22.5 7.3 0.8
Idaho St. 5 - 13 9 - 19 11.6 31.4 35.2 17.8 4.1
Northern Arizona 5 - 13 8 - 20 43.9 39.0 14.6 2.5 0.2

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Portland St. 90.3% 73.9 15.1 1.2 0.1
Montana St. 24.8% 9.0 14.5 1.2 0.1
Northern Colorado 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Montana 2.7% 0.3 1.3 1.1 0.1
Idaho 0.0% 0.0
Eastern Washington 0.4% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1
Weber St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Sacramento St.
Idaho St.
Northern Arizona


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Portland St. 24.7% 24.7% 0.0% 14   0.0 1.4 8.7 12.0 2.6 0.0 75.3 0.0%
Montana St. 21.5% 21.5% 0.0% 0.7 5.8 9.6 5.2 0.3 78.5 0.0%
Northern Colorado 15.4% 15.4% 0.0% 0.6 4.8 7.5 2.4 0.1 84.6 0.0%
Montana 13.3% 13.3% 0.0% 0.1 1.5 4.0 6.2 1.5 86.7 0.0%
Idaho 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.7 2.3 4.8 1.2 90.9 0.0%
Eastern Washington 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.4 7.5 92.1 0.0%
Weber St. 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.4 94.9 0.0%
Sacramento St. 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 1.4 98.6 0.0%
Idaho St. 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 1.4 98.6 0.0%
Northern Arizona 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 95.3% 1.0 4.7 95.3
2nd Round 2.5% 0.0 97.5 2.5
Sweet Sixteen 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Portland St. 24.7% 0.0% 24.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 21.5% 0.1% 21.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 15.4% 0.0% 15.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 13.3% 0.5% 13.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 9.1% 0.4% 8.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 7.9% 7.0% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 5.1% 2.1% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 1.4% 1.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 1.4% 1.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%