Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
140 Portland St. 28.6%   14   12 - 6 9 - 1 +1.3      -3.7 268 +5.0 56 70.0 145 +2.5 122 +8.1 1
156 Montana St. 19.9%   11 - 10 8 - 3 -0.1      -0.5 177 +0.5 150 65.2 272 -0.3 169 +2.6 2
171 Montana 15.3%   10 - 10 7 - 4 -0.7      -1.2 199 +0.4 151 71.7 98 -1.4 194 -0.1 3
180 Northern Colorado 9.8%   11 - 10 4 - 7 -1.3      +1.2 133 -2.5 255 70.8 122 -1.6 196 -6.1 8
187 Idaho 10.5%   10 - 10 5 - 5 -1.8      -0.8 188 -1.0 210 67.8 210 -1.3 192 -2.8 5
232 Eastern Washington 4.5%   5 - 17 4 - 6 -4.1      0.0 161 -4.1 295 69.5 163 -7.3 282 -4.3 6
236 Weber St. 4.3%   9 - 13 5 - 6 -4.4      0.0 163 -4.4 305 72.0 90 -5.2 248 -4.4 7
243 Idaho St. 3.2%   7 - 14 3 - 8 -4.7      +0.7 146 -5.4 323 62.8 328 -5.7 255 -8.7 10
258 Sacramento St. 3.4%   6 - 13 5 - 5 -5.6      -1.6 213 -4.1 293 77.1 19 -4.8 240 -2.8 4
306 Northern Arizona 0.6%   6 - 15 3 - 8 -8.5      -1.5 211 -7.0 346 62.8 327 -7.8 290 -8.5 9


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Thu, Feb 5 232 Eastern Washington 82 171 Montana 74   
Thu, Feb 5 243 Idaho St. 73 306 Northern Arizona 79   
Thu, Feb 5 187 Idaho 66 156 Montana St. 73   
Thu, Feb 5 180 Northern Colorado 88 236 Weber St. 74   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Feb 7 187 Idaho 72 171 Montana 76 65%   
Sat, Feb 7 232 Eastern Washington 71 156 Montana St. 78 75%   
Sat, Feb 7 243 Idaho St. 76 180 Northern Colorado 77 52%   
Sat, Feb 7 140 Portland St. 78 258 Sacramento St. 74 65%   
Sat, Feb 7 306 Northern Arizona 74 236 Weber St. 81 75%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Portland St. 1.2 83.3 13.6 2.6 0.4 0.1
Montana St. 2.0 26.4 52.7 16.3 3.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Montana 2.9 8.0 29.4 40.3 14.2 5.2 1.7 0.9 0.3
Northern Colorado 5.8 0.0 0.9 6.6 17.2 21.7 19.8 15.6 12.0 4.8 1.5
Idaho 4.3 1.0 7.8 23.1 30.7 16.8 9.8 6.1 3.3 1.3 0.2
Eastern Washington 6.0 0.0 1.3 6.3 15.6 19.3 18.0 15.9 14.7 6.9 2.0
Weber St. 6.0 0.1 1.0 5.8 13.3 19.2 20.8 19.0 13.7 6.1 1.1
Idaho St. 8.1 0.0 0.5 2.6 5.5 8.9 12.4 17.9 36.7 15.5
Sacramento St. 5.8 0.2 2.1 8.1 15.9 20.1 18.9 15.9 12.5 5.7 0.9
Northern Arizona 9.2 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.5 5.1 9.4 26.6 54.7

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Portland St. 14 - 4 17 - 9 0.1 0.7 3.3 10.1 19.9 26.2 24.1 12.5 3.3
Montana St. 12 - 6 15 - 13 0.2 1.9 7.5 17.6 26.8 26.7 15.2 4.2
Montana 11 - 7 14 - 13 0.5 3.2 10.8 20.8 27.9 22.9 11.2 2.8
Northern Colorado 8 - 10 15 - 13 0.3 2.3 9.3 20.5 27.9 25.1 11.8 2.9
Idaho 9 - 9 14 - 14 0.2 1.8 6.8 16.4 24.6 25.1 17.9 6.1 1.2
Eastern Washington 8 - 10 9 - 21 0.5 3.4 11.9 22.0 26.7 21.0 10.8 3.5 0.4
Weber St. 8 - 10 12 - 17 2.1 11.8 24.8 28.1 20.5 9.9 2.5 0.3
Idaho St. 6 - 12 10 - 18 2.4 11.1 22.1 27.0 21.4 11.7 3.8 0.5
Sacramento St. 8 - 10 9 - 18 2.2 10.6 21.3 26.6 22.0 11.9 4.4 1.1 0.1
Northern Arizona 5 - 13 8 - 20 11.6 28.4 29.4 18.8 9.1 2.3 0.3 0.1

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Portland St. 83.3% 67.8 13.6 1.8 0.1 0.0
Montana St. 26.4% 12.9 11.6 1.7 0.1 0.0
Montana 8.0% 2.4 3.8 1.6 0.1 0.0
Northern Colorado 0.0% 0.0
Idaho 1.0% 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Eastern Washington 0.0% 0.0
Weber St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Idaho St.
Sacramento St. 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northern Arizona


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Portland St. 28.6% 28.6% 0.0% 14   0.0 1.6 10.0 13.1 3.8 0.1 71.4 0.0%
Montana St. 19.9% 19.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 3.8 8.8 6.2 0.6 80.1 0.0%
Montana 15.3% 15.3% 0.0% 0.2 1.9 5.2 6.7 1.3 84.7 0.0%
Northern Colorado 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.0 3.2 0.8 90.3 0.0%
Idaho 10.5% 10.5% 0.0% 0.1 1.1 3.4 5.1 0.9 89.5 0.0%
Eastern Washington 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.1 4.4 95.6 0.0%
Weber St. 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.2 1.0 3.2 95.7 0.0%
Idaho St. 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 2.7 96.8 0.0%
Sacramento St. 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.2 3.2 96.6 0.0%
Northern Arizona 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6 99.4 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 95.4% 1.0 4.6 95.4
2nd Round 2.6% 0.0 97.4 2.6
Sweet Sixteen 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Portland St. 28.6% 0.0% 28.6% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 19.9% 0.2% 19.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 15.3% 0.4% 15.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 9.8% 0.2% 9.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 10.5% 0.2% 10.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 4.5% 4.2% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 4.3% 2.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 3.2% 2.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 3.4% 2.7% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%