Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
148 Montana St. 19.5%   14 - 13 11 - 6 +0.8      +0.2 159 +0.5 153 65.3 266 -0.5 164 +0.7 3
163 Northern Colorado 14.6%   16 - 11 9 - 8 -0.3      +0.8 144 -1.1 209 70.8 114 +0.1 155 -2.2 6
165 Portland St. 21.3%   15   15 - 10 12 - 5 -0.4      -4.5 293 +4.1 66 69.0 170 +0.8 145 +2.3 1
169 Eastern Washington 14.4%   12 - 17 11 - 6 -0.8      +1.9 118 -2.7 256 68.9 173 -2.6 210 +0.8 2
187 Montana 11.4%   13 - 13 10 - 7 -1.8      -2.1 231 +0.3 160 71.8 96 -1.8 192 -1.1 5
188 Idaho 5.9%   13 - 14 8 - 9 -1.8      -1.0 189 -0.8 195 68.2 187 -2.5 206 -3.9 7
201 Weber St. 10.0%   14 - 14 10 - 7 -2.3      +1.3 133 -3.5 282 70.6 119 -2.6 211 -1.0 4
259 Idaho St. 1.8%   9 - 18 5 - 12 -5.4      +0.1 163 -5.4 321 63.9 303 -5.7 252 -7.7 9
283 Sacramento St. 0.8%   6 - 20 5 - 12 -6.9      -1.6 213 -5.2 319 77.5 15 -7.6 288 -7.1 8
315 Northern Arizona 0.2%   7 - 20 4 - 13 -9.5      -2.1 230 -7.4 351 61.9 342 -8.2 295 -8.9 10


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Thu, Feb 26 169 Eastern Washington 82 163 Northern Colorado 72   
Thu, Feb 26 187 Montana 81 283 Sacramento St. 73   
Thu, Feb 26 148 Montana St. 84 165 Portland St. 69   
Thu, Feb 26 188 Idaho 78 315 Northern Arizona 58   
Sat, Feb 28 188 Idaho 67 163 Northern Colorado 76   
Sat, Feb 28 187 Montana 74 165 Portland St. 68   
Sat, Feb 28 259 Idaho St. 73 201 Weber St. 83   
Sat, Feb 28 148 Montana St. 82 283 Sacramento St. 61   
Sat, Feb 28 169 Eastern Washington 88 315 Northern Arizona 57   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Mon, Mar 2 169 Eastern Washington 78 188 Idaho 74 65%   
Mon, Mar 2 187 Montana 75 163 Northern Colorado 79 67%   
Mon, Mar 2 165 Portland St. 76 201 Weber St. 71 68%   
Mon, Mar 2 259 Idaho St. 80 283 Sacramento St. 81 56%   
Mon, Mar 2 148 Montana St. 75 315 Northern Arizona 68 76%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Montana St. 1.9 24.7 59.4 16.0
Northern Colorado 4.9 44.9 21.7 33.4
Portland St. 1.0 100.0
Eastern Washington 2.1 21.2 52.5 26.3
Montana 4.0 2.9 14.4 61.0 21.7
Idaho 6.9 12.0 88.0
Weber St. 4.0 2.9 13.9 60.9 22.3
Idaho St. 8.6 44.4 55.6
Sacramento St. 8.4 55.6 44.4
Northern Arizona 9.8 24.7 75.3

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Montana St. 12 - 6 15 - 13 24.7 75.3
Northern Colorado 10 - 8 17 - 11 33.4 66.6
Portland St. 13 - 5 16 - 10 32.8 67.2
Eastern Washington 12 - 6 13 - 17 35.1 64.9
Montana 10 - 8 13 - 14 66.6 33.4
Idaho 8 - 10 13 - 15 64.9 35.1
Weber St. 10 - 8 14 - 15 67.2 32.8
Idaho St. 5 - 13 9 - 19 55.6 44.4
Sacramento St. 6 - 12 7 - 20 44.4 55.6
Northern Arizona 4 - 14 7 - 21 75.3 24.7

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Montana St. 24.7% 8.7 16.0
Northern Colorado
Portland St. 100.0% 70.1 13.9 16.0
Eastern Washington 21.2% 5.2 16.0
Montana
Idaho
Weber St.
Idaho St.
Sacramento St.
Northern Arizona


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Montana St. 19.5% 19.5% 0.0% 0.1 4.0 10.6 4.8 0.0 80.5 0.0%
Northern Colorado 14.6% 14.6% 0.0% 0.2 5.2 7.7 1.5 0.0 85.4 0.0%
Portland St. 21.3% 21.3% 0.0% 15   0.1 3.7 12.4 4.9 0.2 78.7 0.0%
Eastern Washington 14.4% 14.4% 0.0% 2.0 12.4 85.6 0.0%
Montana 11.4% 11.4% 0.0% 0.1 2.0 7.8 1.6 88.6 0.0%
Idaho 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.1 1.2 3.9 0.7 94.1 0.0%
Weber St. 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.1 1.2 6.8 2.0 90.0 0.0%
Idaho St. 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 1.8 98.2 0.0%
Sacramento St. 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.8 99.2 0.0%
Northern Arizona 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 96.4% 1.0 3.6 96.4
2nd Round 1.9% 0.0 98.1 1.9
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Montana St. 19.5% 0.0% 19.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 14.6% 0.0% 14.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 21.3% 0.0% 21.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 14.4% 7.4% 12.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 11.4% 0.1% 11.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 5.9% 0.0% 5.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 10.0% 0.2% 10.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 1.8% 1.8% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%