Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
144 Portland St. 28.2%   14   14 - 6 11 - 1 +1.2      -3.2 258 +4.4 61 69.1 167 +3.2 113 +9.1 1
157 Montana St. 17.8%   11 - 11 8 - 4 -0.2      -0.7 181 +0.5 154 65.2 271 -1.0 180 +0.7 2
171 Northern Colorado 13.2%   13 - 10 6 - 7 -0.6      +1.0 140 -1.5 223 70.8 119 -0.8 177 -4.1 7
174 Montana 15.9%   11 - 10 8 - 4 -0.6      -1.6 212 +1.0 137 72.2 85 -0.9 178 +0.5 3
202 Idaho 6.4%   10 - 12 5 - 7 -2.6      -1.2 195 -1.4 219 67.8 207 -2.6 210 -4.6 8
221 Eastern Washington 7.0%   7 - 17 6 - 6 -3.3      +0.7 148 -4.0 298 69.5 158 -5.2 251 -2.2 4
224 Weber St. 6.8%   11 - 13 7 - 6 -3.4      +0.6 152 -4.0 295 71.0 116 -4.0 229 -2.7 5
257 Idaho St. 2.2%   7 - 16 3 - 10 -5.3      +0.2 158 -5.5 324 62.8 328 -6.5 266 -9.9 10
263 Sacramento St. 2.1%   6 - 15 5 - 7 -5.7      -1.5 207 -4.2 303 77.5 16 -5.5 258 -4.1 6
315 Northern Arizona 0.4%   6 - 17 3 - 10 -9.1      -1.6 211 -7.5 355 62.1 340 -8.5 302 -9.3 9


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Thu, Feb 12 315 Northern Arizona 68 144 Portland St. 77   
Thu, Feb 12 221 Eastern Washington 88 257 Idaho St. 75   
Thu, Feb 12 171 Northern Colorado 95 263 Sacramento St. 79   
Thu, Feb 12 202 Idaho 72 224 Weber St. 83   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Feb 14 174 Montana 73 157 Montana St. 71 60%   
Sat, Feb 14 171 Northern Colorado 74 144 Portland St. 72 55%   
Sat, Feb 14 221 Eastern Washington 82 224 Weber St. 79 62%   
Sat, Feb 14 202 Idaho 76 257 Idaho St. 70 71%   
Sat, Feb 14 315 Northern Arizona 78 263 Sacramento St. 79 52%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Portland St. 1.0 95.8 3.8 0.4 0.0
Montana St. 2.4 8.0 53.9 28.5 6.7 2.2 0.6 0.2 0.0
Northern Colorado 5.0 0.0 2.8 13.0 24.4 24.6 17.8 12.6 4.6 0.2 0.0
Montana 2.6 6.7 49.0 31.2 8.5 3.1 1.1 0.4 0.0
Idaho 5.9 0.8 5.5 14.8 19.0 19.9 20.6 16.9 2.1 0.2
Eastern Washington 4.7 0.1 5.1 17.2 29.4 18.6 14.4 10.1 4.9 0.2
Weber St. 4.8 0.1 5.8 14.5 23.3 24.3 19.1 10.3 2.7 0.0
Idaho St. 8.9 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.8 14.3 61.8 18.4
Sacramento St. 6.7 0.6 2.7 6.9 11.7 16.8 23.0 32.7 5.1 0.4
Northern Arizona 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 5.0 37.3 56.4

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Portland St. 15 - 3 18 - 8 0.5 3.9 13.6 27.6 30.4 18.8 5.3
Montana St. 12 - 6 15 - 13 0.5 4.6 14.7 27.7 29.5 18.4 4.7
Northern Colorado 9 - 9 16 - 12 1.0 8.6 23.7 34.2 25.1 7.5
Montana 11 - 7 14 - 13 0.9 6.3 17.9 28.2 28.0 15.1 3.6
Idaho 8 - 10 13 - 15 0.9 6.6 19.7 31.1 27.0 12.2 2.5
Eastern Washington 9 - 9 10 - 20 1.0 6.2 19.9 30.2 27.4 13.0 2.3
Weber St. 9 - 9 13 - 16 7.5 24.1 32.9 24.5 9.5 1.5
Idaho St. 5 - 13 9 - 19 7.3 24.1 33.0 24.1 9.9 1.6
Sacramento St. 8 - 10 9 - 18 3.9 16.1 28.6 29.2 16.4 5.2 0.6
Northern Arizona 4 - 14 7 - 21 22.1 39.7 27.2 9.3 1.7 0.1

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Portland St. 95.8% 86.4 8.3 1.0 0.0 0.0
Montana St. 8.0% 2.1 4.9 1.0 0.0 0.0
Northern Colorado 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Montana 6.7% 1.8 3.9 1.0 0.0 0.0
Idaho
Eastern Washington 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Weber St. 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Idaho St.
Sacramento St.
Northern Arizona


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Portland St. 28.2% 28.2% 0.0% 14   0.0 1.8 10.2 13.5 2.6 0.1 71.8 0.0%
Montana St. 17.8% 17.8% 0.0% 0.3 2.4 6.5 7.1 1.4 82.2 0.0%
Northern Colorado 13.2% 13.2% 0.0% 0.3 3.3 6.2 3.1 0.3 86.8 0.0%
Montana 15.9% 15.9% 0.0% 0.3 2.3 6.3 6.2 0.9 84.1 0.0%
Idaho 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.2 3.4 1.4 93.6 0.0%
Eastern Washington 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.2 6.8 93.0 0.0%
Weber St. 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 2.6 3.6 93.2 0.0%
Idaho St. 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 2.2 97.8 0.0%
Sacramento St. 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 2.0 97.9 0.0%
Northern Arizona 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 95.0% 1.0 5.0 95.0
2nd Round 2.4% 0.0 97.6 2.4
Sweet Sixteen 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Portland St. 28.2% 0.0% 28.2% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 17.8% 0.4% 17.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 13.2% 0.0% 13.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 15.9% 0.2% 15.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 6.4% 0.7% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 7.0% 6.3% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 6.8% 2.1% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 2.2% 2.1% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 2.1% 1.8% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%