Montana St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#181
Expected Predictive Rating-0.8#187
Pace68.9#195
Improvement+0.3#151

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#127
First Shot+3.3#88
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#277
Layup/Dunks+0.5#146
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#181
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#56
Freethrows-1.3#262
Improvement-1.8#329

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#260
First Shot-2.3#254
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#201
Layups/Dunks+3.1#70
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#343
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#191
Freethrows-1.4#264
Improvement+2.0#34
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.1% 12.4% 8.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.0
.500 or above 81.2% 90.7% 75.2%
.500 or above in Conference 80.9% 90.9% 74.7%
Conference Champion 10.5% 16.9% 6.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.1% 0.9%
First Four0.8% 0.4% 1.0%
First Round9.7% 12.1% 8.2%
Second Round0.5% 0.4% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Colorado (Away) - 38.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 53 - 8
Quad 415 - 418 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 75   @ Colorado L 90-94 OT 15%     0 - 1 +5.9 +11.8 -5.5
  Nov 17, 2021 70   @ South Dakota St. L 74-91 15%     0 - 2 -6.8 -1.0 -5.3
  Nov 20, 2021 201   @ New Mexico L 78-81 42%     0 - 3 -1.8 +0.4 -2.1
  Nov 26, 2021 251   Portland W 69-66 65%     1 - 3 -1.9 +5.7 -7.1
  Nov 27, 2021 350   @ Incarnate Word W 83-64 84%     2 - 3 +7.3 +6.0 +2.1
  Nov 28, 2021 303   Southeast Missouri St. W 75-68 75%     3 - 3 -0.9 -10.4 +8.8
  Dec 02, 2021 175   @ Northern Colorado L 73-76 39%    
  Dec 04, 2021 295   @ Sacramento St. W 73-70 61%    
  Dec 07, 2021 182   North Dakota St. W 70-67 61%    
  Dec 11, 2021 329   @ St. Thomas W 80-73 75%    
  Dec 19, 2021 251   Portland W 77-70 76%    
  Dec 30, 2021 97   Weber St. L 73-76 38%    
  Jan 01, 2022 311   Idaho St. W 72-62 83%    
  Jan 06, 2022 351   @ Idaho W 81-70 84%    
  Jan 08, 2022 207   Montana W 72-68 65%    
  Jan 15, 2022 140   Southern Utah W 76-75 51%    
  Jan 20, 2022 317   @ Northern Arizona W 75-70 67%    
  Jan 22, 2022 269   @ Portland St. W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 27, 2022 203   Eastern Washington W 79-75 64%    
  Jan 29, 2022 351   Idaho W 84-67 94%    
  Feb 03, 2022 311   @ Idaho St. W 69-65 66%    
  Feb 05, 2022 97   @ Weber St. L 70-79 21%    
  Feb 10, 2022 269   Portland St. W 76-68 75%    
  Feb 12, 2022 317   Northern Arizona W 78-67 83%    
  Feb 17, 2022 203   @ Eastern Washington L 76-78 43%    
  Feb 19, 2022 140   @ Southern Utah L 72-78 30%    
  Feb 27, 2022 207   @ Montana L 69-71 44%    
  Mar 03, 2022 295   Sacramento St. W 76-67 80%    
  Mar 05, 2022 175   Northern Colorado W 76-73 60%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 12 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.7 2.4 3.2 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.1 10.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 5.3 5.5 2.5 0.6 0.0 15.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.0 6.0 5.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 17.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.4 6.1 4.2 1.1 0.1 15.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.8 5.9 3.5 0.4 0.0 14.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.0 4.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.5 3.2 1.5 0.2 8.0 7th
8th 0.4 1.5 1.8 0.6 0.1 4.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.5 3.2 5.5 7.5 10.4 11.8 13.1 12.5 12.4 10.1 6.0 3.2 1.2 0.3 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
18-2 96.4% 1.1    1.0 0.2
17-3 82.0% 2.6    1.9 0.7 0.0
16-4 53.3% 3.2    1.7 1.3 0.2
15-5 23.8% 2.4    0.9 1.0 0.5 0.0
14-6 5.3% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
13-7 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.5% 10.5 5.9 3.3 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 34.3% 34.3% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 42.1% 42.1% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
18-2 1.2% 37.5% 37.5% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.7
17-3 3.2% 30.4% 30.4% 13.9 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 2.2
16-4 6.0% 22.4% 22.4% 14.2 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 4.6
15-5 10.1% 18.3% 18.3% 14.7 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.2 8.2
14-6 12.4% 15.6% 15.6% 15.2 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.6 10.5
13-7 12.5% 11.1% 11.1% 15.3 0.1 0.7 0.6 11.1
12-8 13.1% 6.5% 6.5% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.6 12.2
11-9 11.8% 5.7% 5.7% 15.6 0.3 0.4 11.1
10-10 10.4% 2.6% 2.6% 15.8 0.0 0.2 10.1
9-11 7.5% 2.4% 2.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 7.4
8-12 5.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.5
7-13 3.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 3.2
6-14 1.5% 1.5
5-15 0.7% 0.7
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 10.1% 10.1% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 4.0 2.8 89.9 0.0%