Montana St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#165
Expected Predictive Rating-5.9#254
Pace65.2#294
Improvement-0.2#208

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#182
First Shot+0.2#172
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#230
Layup/Dunks-3.3#291
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#37
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#77
Freethrows-3.4#338
Improvement+1.1#76

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#159
First Shot-2.4#257
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#37
Layups/Dunks-2.4#269
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#339
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#34
Freethrows-1.7#287
Improvement-1.3#290
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.6% 18.5% 13.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.3 14.8
.500 or above 46.6% 61.3% 37.0%
.500 or above in Conference 74.7% 80.0% 71.2%
Conference Champion 21.6% 26.5% 18.4%
Last Place in Conference 4.4% 2.7% 5.5%
First Four2.0% 1.4% 2.4%
First Round14.9% 18.0% 12.8%
Second Round0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon St. (Away) - 39.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 35 - 65 - 10
Quad 410 - 514 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 63 @Colorado L 78-84 13%     0 - 1 +5.7 +9.3 -3.7
  Sun, Nov 9 294 Denver L 73-75 82%     0 - 2 -12.3 -3.4 -9.1
  Wed, Nov 12 90 @Stanford L 68-77 19%     0 - 3 -0.2 -4.1 +4.5
  Sat, Nov 15 46 @Boise St. L 58-62 10%     0 - 4 +10.0 -0.1 +9.7
  Fri, Nov 21 279 @Long Beach St. W 78-72 61%     1 - 4 +2.7 +3.6 -0.8
  Sat, Nov 29 43 @Utah St. L 81-84 OT 9%     1 - 5 +11.3 +7.3 +4.3
  Wed, Dec 3 152 St. Thomas W 82-74 59%     2 - 5 +5.2 +10.1 -4.6
  Sat, Dec 6 298 @Oral Roberts L 68-72 66%     2 - 6 -8.8 -2.7 -6.4
  Sat, Dec 13 167 @Oregon St. L 67-70 40%    
  Tue, Dec 16 249 @Cal Poly W 80-78 56%    
  Thu, Jan 1 161 Northern Colorado W 74-71 60%    
  Sat, Jan 3 258 Northern Arizona W 73-65 77%    
  Thu, Jan 8 240 @Eastern Washington W 76-75 54%    
  Sat, Jan 10 177 @Idaho L 71-73 42%    
  Sat, Jan 17 202 Montana W 77-72 68%    
  Mon, Jan 19 161 @Northern Colorado L 71-74 38%    
  Thu, Jan 22 160 Idaho St. W 69-66 60%    
  Sat, Jan 24 213 Weber St. W 75-69 70%    
  Thu, Jan 29 275 @Sacramento St. W 75-72 59%    
  Sat, Jan 31 176 @Portland St. L 68-70 42%    
  Thu, Feb 5 177 Idaho W 74-70 63%    
  Sat, Feb 7 240 Eastern Washington W 79-72 73%    
  Sat, Feb 14 202 @Montana L 74-75 48%    
  Thu, Feb 19 213 @Weber St. L 72-73 50%    
  Sat, Feb 21 160 @Idaho St. L 66-69 39%    
  Thu, Feb 26 176 Portland St. W 71-67 63%    
  Sat, Feb 28 275 Sacramento St. W 78-69 78%    
  Mon, Mar 2 258 @Northern Arizona W 70-68 57%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.8 5.4 5.8 4.2 2.1 0.7 0.2 21.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.0 6.4 4.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 16.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.7 6.2 3.0 0.6 0.0 13.8 3rd
4th 0.1 2.7 5.7 2.5 0.3 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 5.1 2.5 0.2 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 4.3 2.9 0.2 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.0 2.7 0.4 6.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 2.4 0.5 0.0 5.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.4 0.5 0.0 3.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.6 4.2 6.9 9.3 11.4 12.7 13.4 12.6 10.1 7.2 4.4 2.1 0.7 0.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
16-2 99.7% 2.1    2.1 0.0
15-3 94.5% 4.2    3.7 0.5 0.0
14-4 81.2% 5.8    4.3 1.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 53.2% 5.4    2.6 2.2 0.5 0.0
12-6 22.3% 2.8    0.6 1.2 0.8 0.2
11-7 3.7% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.6% 21.6 14.2 5.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 57.8% 57.8% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.7% 52.1% 52.1% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3
16-2 2.1% 39.7% 39.7% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.3
15-3 4.4% 33.6% 33.6% 13.6 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.9
14-4 7.2% 30.8% 30.8% 13.9 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.4 0.0 5.0
13-5 10.1% 26.0% 26.0% 14.3 0.3 1.2 1.0 0.1 7.5
12-6 12.6% 19.7% 19.7% 14.7 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.2 10.1
11-7 13.4% 15.4% 15.4% 15.2 0.0 0.2 1.4 0.5 11.3
10-8 12.7% 13.1% 13.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.0 11.1
9-9 11.4% 8.2% 8.2% 15.9 0.1 0.8 10.5
8-10 9.3% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.0 0.5 8.8
7-11 6.9% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.2 6.7
6-12 4.2% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 4.1
5-13 2.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.6
4-14 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-15 0.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.6% 15.6% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.1 4.2 5.2 3.5 84.4 0.0%