Montana St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#182
Expected Predictive Rating-8.3#291
Pace65.2#296
Improvement-0.2#190

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#203
First Shot-0.9#199
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#208
Layup/Dunks-0.3#183
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#24
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#160
Freethrows-5.1#360
Improvement-0.2#202

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#167
First Shot-1.9#242
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#75
Layups/Dunks-3.5#296
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#333
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#39
Freethrows-0.5#220
Improvement+0.0#187
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.2% 19.4% 11.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 13.7 14.7
.500 or above 40.1% 68.1% 38.7%
.500 or above in Conference 66.2% 80.9% 65.5%
Conference Champion 15.5% 28.2% 14.9%
Last Place in Conference 6.8% 3.0% 7.0%
First Four2.1% 1.0% 2.1%
First Round11.3% 18.9% 11.0%
Second Round0.5% 1.5% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah St. (Away) - 4.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 34 - 64 - 11
Quad 410 - 514 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 61 @Colorado L 78-84 11%     0 - 1 +5.9 +9.9 -4.0
  Sun, Nov 9 299 Denver L 73-75 80%     0 - 2 -12.6 -1.9 -10.9
  Wed, Nov 12 88 @Stanford L 68-77 16%     0 - 3 +0.0 -3.9 +4.5
  Sat, Nov 15 60 @Boise St. L 58-62 10%     0 - 4 +8.3 -0.7 +8.6
  Fri, Nov 21 298 @Long Beach St. W 78-72 61%     1 - 4 +1.5 +4.2 -2.7
  Sat, Nov 29 33 @Utah St. L 64-82 5%    
  Wed, Dec 3 158 St. Thomas W 71-69 57%    
  Sat, Dec 6 295 @Oral Roberts W 76-73 60%    
  Sat, Dec 13 172 @Oregon St. L 65-68 38%    
  Tue, Dec 16 240 @Cal Poly L 77-78 50%    
  Thu, Jan 1 146 Northern Colorado W 72-71 54%    
  Sat, Jan 3 247 Northern Arizona W 74-68 71%    
  Thu, Jan 8 239 @Eastern Washington L 73-74 49%    
  Sat, Jan 10 212 @Idaho L 70-71 46%    
  Sat, Jan 17 183 Montana W 76-73 61%    
  Mon, Jan 19 146 @Northern Colorado L 69-74 33%    
  Thu, Jan 22 173 Idaho St. W 68-65 59%    
  Sat, Jan 24 228 Weber St. W 75-70 69%    
  Thu, Jan 29 273 @Sacramento St. W 73-72 55%    
  Sat, Jan 31 156 @Portland St. L 69-73 35%    
  Thu, Feb 5 212 Idaho W 73-68 66%    
  Sat, Feb 7 239 Eastern Washington W 76-70 70%    
  Sat, Feb 14 183 @Montana L 73-76 40%    
  Thu, Feb 19 228 @Weber St. L 72-73 48%    
  Sat, Feb 21 173 @Idaho St. L 65-68 38%    
  Thu, Feb 26 156 Portland St. W 72-70 56%    
  Sat, Feb 28 273 Sacramento St. W 76-69 74%    
  Mon, Mar 2 247 @Northern Arizona W 71-70 50%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.7 4.4 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 15.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.1 5.1 3.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 13.8 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.5 5.6 3.1 0.5 0.1 13.1 3rd
4th 0.3 3.0 5.7 2.5 0.3 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 2.2 5.7 2.7 0.3 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 4.7 3.0 0.2 0.0 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.8 3.1 0.4 0.0 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.0 2.6 0.5 7.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 1.9 0.5 0.0 5.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 3.9 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.2 4.1 6.4 8.6 10.7 12.5 12.6 11.8 10.4 7.9 5.7 3.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5
16-2 99.3% 1.5    1.5 0.0
15-3 93.3% 3.0    2.6 0.4 0.0
14-4 76.9% 4.4    3.0 1.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 47.4% 3.7    1.7 1.5 0.5 0.0
12-6 18.8% 2.0    0.4 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.5% 15.5 9.9 4.1 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 59.5% 59.5% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.5% 47.4% 47.4% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.5% 39.0% 39.0% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9
15-3 3.2% 33.9% 33.9% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 2.1
14-4 5.7% 30.2% 30.2% 14.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.0 4.0
13-5 7.9% 23.4% 23.4% 14.3 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.1 6.0
12-6 10.4% 18.0% 18.0% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.2 8.5
11-7 11.8% 13.8% 13.8% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.5 10.2
10-8 12.6% 10.2% 10.2% 15.6 0.0 0.5 0.8 11.3
9-9 12.5% 7.1% 7.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.8 11.6
8-10 10.7% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5 10.2
7-11 8.6% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.3 8.4
6-12 6.4% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 6.3
5-13 4.1% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 4.0
4-14 2.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.2
3-15 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.1
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 12.2% 12.2% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.1 3.7 3.3 87.8 0.0%