Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -6.5 275
Results Rating -7.4 282
Consistency 0.09 1
Pace 77.9 14
Improvement +1.0 147

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 204 D C B- B+ D
Defense D 316 D+ D C C- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 291 D+ 54% 286 -3.5 304
2 Pt. Jumpers 47% 80 D 33% 321 +1.0 126
Three Pointers 39% 227 D+ 32% 263 -2.2 259
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.0 307 D -3.8 309
1st FG Attempt D 0.93 324
Second Chance D+ 27.3% 266 B 1.13 53 C 0.31 182
Opponents' Steals D 10.8% 308
Other Turnovers A 4.7% 4
Turnovers B- 15.5% 97
Freethrows B 0.34 59 B+ 78% 20 B+ 0.27 28
Total Offense C- -1.4 204

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 47% 204 D+ 12.6% 283
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 29% 126 C+ 4.7% 167
Three Pointers C- 81% 254 C- 1.1% 255
Total C- 54% 221 C- 6.1% 234

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 99 C- 59% 220 +2.5 267
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% 359 F 46% 355 -1.7 51
Three Pointers 45% 65 C 34% 187 +2.1 281
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- +1.2 351 C- +1.6 246
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 275
Second Chance D 33.6% 306 D 1.12 302 D 0.38 326
Turnovers from Steals C 9.8% 158
Other Turnovers D+ 6.6% 265
Turnovers C 16.4% 201
Freethrows C- 0.32 241 C 73% 206 C- 0.23 244
Total Defense D -5.1 316

Assists Blocks
Close Shots F+ 58% 348 D+ 8.9% 253
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 31% 283 F+ 0.8% 358
Three Pointers C- 86% 235 C 0.9% 162
Total D- 64% 336 D+ 4.2% 295

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.2 69 16.2 27
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 96 0.19 257
Consistency 0.11 122 0.10 54
Improvement +3.5 39 -2.4 302

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 296 275 255
Results Rating Rank 315 281 256
Conference Record 5 - 13 6 - 12 7 - 11
Conference Finish 9 8 8
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 16% 2% 19%
First Four1% 1% 1%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Montana St. (Away) - 18.0% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 122 - 18
Quad 45 - 47 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 11 142 UC Santa Barbara L 87 - 92 33% -6  10% 0 - 1 D+ -7 B- +4 B C+ C F -11 D+ C- F
 Fri, Nov 14 178 @UC Davis L 73 - 77 21% +2  54% 0 - 2 C- -2 D+ -4 F+ B- C- C+ +2 B+ D- C
 Sun, Nov 16 270 Presbyterian W 64 - 62 61% -4  11% 1 - 2 D+ -7 F -12 F A- F B +5 A B+ D-
 Tue, Nov 18 35 @UCLA L 48 - 79 2% -19  0% 1 - 3 D- -14 F -21 F C- B- A- +7 B+ F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 67 @California L 67 - 91 5% -18  4% 1 - 4 D- -12 D- -7 F B- B D+ -4 F B- B-
 Sat, Nov 29 118 @Pacific L 54 - 68 12% -6  7% 1 - 5 D+ -8 F -18 F C- C- A +10 B- B+ B
 Tue, Dec 2 46 @Baylor L 88 - 110 4% -7  33% 1 - 6 D+ -8 A- +10 F+ A+ C F -16 F F B-
 Sat, Dec 20 134 @California Baptist L 67 - 74 15% -2  32% 1 - 7 C- -2 C- -1 F A+ D+ C- -2 A F B-
 Mon, Dec 22 158 @Cal St. Northridge L 88 - 100 19% -4  18% 1 - 8 D -9 C+ +2 D D- A+ F+ -10 F A+ F+
 Thu, Jan 1 249 @Idaho St. L 84 - 97 33% -10  3% 1 - 9 0 - 1 F+ -15 D- -6 F B C D- -7 F+ C F
 Sat, Jan 3 209 @Weber St. L 82 - 95 26% -10  1% 1 - 10 0 - 2 D- -13 D+ -3 C D F+ D- -8 D F+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 159 @Portland St. L 69 - 96 19% -14  13% 1 - 11 0 - 3 F -24 D+ -3 F F A+ F -20 F B+ F+
 Thu, Jan 15 310 Northern Arizona W 83 - 69 70% +1  43% 2 - 11 1 - 3 C+ +2 B- +4 D- A+ A+ C -1 D+ B- B+
 Sat, Jan 17 170 Northern Colorado W 93 - 89 OT 40% -7  7% 3 - 11 2 - 3 C +0 C+ +3 C B- B D+ -3 D+ B C
 Thu, Jan 22 180 @Idaho L 76 - 86 22% -7  3% 3 - 12 2 - 4 D -8 C- -0 F A B D- -8 F B C+
 Sat, Jan 24 181 @Eastern Washington L 67 - 75 22% -7  1% 3 - 13 2 - 5 D+ -6 D -5 F C- D C- -2 A- F D-
 Thu, Jan 29 153 Montana St. W 83 - 80 35% +3  68% 4 - 13 3 - 5 C +0 B- +4 A+ F C+ D+ -4 C D B
 Sat, Jan 31 193 Montana W 86 - 79 44% +8  86% 5 - 13 4 - 5 C+ +2 B +7 A+ F B- D -5 B F B
 Mon, Feb 2 209 Weber St. W 104 - 90 47% +12  88% 6 - 13 5 - 5 B +8 A +13 A+ F+ D D -6 C F D
 Sat, Feb 7 159 Portland St. L 73 - 74 37% +1  53% 6 - 14 5 - 6 C- -4 C+ +2 D D- A+ D -6 A+ F F
 Thu, Feb 12 170 @Northern Colorado L 79 - 95 21% -10  0% 6 - 15 5 - 7 D- -14 D -6 F+ F+ B D -6 F A- C+
 Sat, Feb 14 310 @Northern Arizona L 74 - 79 48% -10  0% 6 - 16 5 - 8 D -11 D- -8 F+ C- D C- -3 F A C+
 Thu, Feb 19 181 Eastern Washington L 94 - 102 41% -13  0% 6 - 17 5 - 9 D- -12 A- +11 B B+ A+ F -22 F F D+
 Sat, Feb 21 180 Idaho L 80 - 86 41% -3  6% 6 - 18 5 - 10 D -10 C- -1 C- F A- F+ -9 C- F A
 Thu, Feb 26 193 @Montana L 73 - 81 24% -8  0% 6 - 19 5 - 11 D+ -7 D+ -3 F C A D+ -4 D C- D
 Sat, Feb 28 153 @Montana St. L 74 - 84 18%
 Mon, Mar 2 249 Idaho St. W 81 - 80 56%
Totals 7 - 20 6 - 12 -6 C- -1 A+ D D D -5 D+ B+ B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D+ D D+ D 35% 47% 39% D D D+ B C B- B B+ B+ D C- F C C- 42% 13% 45% D- D+ D D D C C- C C-
1.07 54% 33% 32% -4 -1 0.93 27% 1.1 .31 16% .34 78% .27 1.16 59% 46% 34% +2 +1 1.08 34% 1.1 .38 16% .32 73% .25
Nov
11		 UC Santa Barbara B- D+ A+ A A- 40% 27% 33% D+ B D+ A+ C+ C B- F C- F B B F C- 44% 17% 39% D D+ B F C- F F+ C+ D-
1.19 57% 57% 41% +8 -1 1.17 24% 1.4 .32 16% .37 65% .24 1.25 54% 33% 48% +5 +1 1.15 29% 1.2 .34 11% .38 76% .29
Nov
14		 UC Davis D+ D- C- D- F 52% 22% 26% C F+ C B B- C- B A A- C+ C- F A+ A 41% 8% 51% F B+ C+ F D- C F D+ F
1.01 50% 36% 31% -6 +1 0.92 31% 1.1 .34 19% .36 81% .29 1.06 60% 50% 24% -6 +2 0.94 26% 1.3 .34 18% .45 78% .35
Nov
16		 Presbyterian F D A+ F F 61% 16% 23% B+ F B- A+ A- F A+ B A+ B C A A+ A+ 47% 14% 39% F A D A+ B+ D- D A- C
0.96 52% 57% 10% -9 +2 0.89 33% 1.3 .43 26% .51 72% .36 0.93 57% 29% 16% -13 +1 0.80 35% 0.7 .25 17% .38 62% .23
Nov
18		 UCLA F F F F F 26% 28% 47% D- F C- C- C- B- A+ F A+ A- C- C- A A- 42% 24% 34% D- B+ C F F A+ F A+ D
0.68 42% 23% 9% -26 -2 0.47 28% 0.9 .26 18% .52 63% .33 1.12 62% 42% 29% 0 0 1.02 33% 1.5 .52 21% .43 67% .29
Nov
21		 California D- F F F+ F 35% 24% 41% D+ F A- D B- B A+ A+ A+ D+ D- F D- F 32% 11% 58% F F C- A- B- B- B- A+ A+
0.89 26% 23% 27% -19 -1 0.63 36% 0.9 .32 15% .47 80% .37 1.21 67% 83% 39% +12 +1 1.28 29% 0.9 .26 16% .30 53% .16
Nov
29		 Pacific F D+ F F F 34% 29% 38% C F D- A C- C- F A+ D- A A- B- D B- 36% 15% 49% D+ B- C A+ B+ B A+ C+ A+
0.76 53% 13% 19% -18 -1 0.64 18% 1.3 .23 16% .20 92% .18 0.96 47% 38% 38% -1 +1 1.02 35% 0.8 .27 23% .15 75% .11
Dec
2		 Baylor A- A+ F+ D- D- 8% 45% 47% F F+ A+ A+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ F F F A+ F 33% 35% 33% C+ F F F F B- F D+ F
1.16 75% 30% 29% -5 -5 0.80 45% 1.4 .62 17% .48 87% .41 1.45 100% 65% 25% +19 -2 1.35 61% 1.4 .82 16% .58 76% .44
Dec
20		 California Baptist C- F A+ F F 22% 35% 44% F F A+ A+ A+ D+ F A+ F C- A+ F B A+ 61% 9% 30% F A D- F F B- F B- F
0.99 17% 58% 21% -11 -3 0.75 38% 1.4 .51 16% .11 83% .09 1.10 33% 50% 31% -16 +3 0.77 43% 1.3 .55 19% .55 70% .38
Dec
22		 Cal St. Northridge C+ F+ B D D+ 32% 32% 35% F+ D F A+ D- A+ A- A+ A+ F+ D F D F 50% 9% 41% F+ F A A+ A+ F+ F F F
1.08 48% 43% 30% -4 -2 0.91 15% 1.5 .23 10% .37 89% .33 1.23 62% 80% 38% +8 +2 1.22 25% 0.7 .17 13% .43 77% .33
Jan
1		 Idaho St. D- F A D- F 37% 31% 31% F+ F D A+ B C A+ D A+ D- A- D+ F F 37% 12% 51% C- F+ A- F C F F+ B D
1.04 35% 53% 29% -6 -2 0.87 26% 1.5 .38 15% .54 73% .39 1.20 48% 43% 48% +8 +1 1.19 26% 1.2 .32 12% .38 70% .27
Jan
3		 Weber St. D+ A+ F B+ B 21% 37% 42% F C C F D F+ B+ F C D- A- C- F D- 49% 16% 35% C- D D+ F F+ C- F D- F
1.06 100% 24% 38% +6 -3 1.07 30% 0.8 .25 19% .39 63% .24 1.23 48% 38% 50% +3 +1 1.12 34% 1.2 .41 16% .52 76% .40
Jan
10		 Portland St. D+ C C+ F D- 29% 38% 33% F F F F F A+ B+ B A- F F F F F 50% 9% 41% F F F A+ B+ F+ D+ F F+
0.95 56% 38% 17% -9 -3 0.78 17% 0.6 .10 7% .42 79% .33 1.33 70% 60% 45% +15 +2 1.37 42% 0.5 .23 15% .33 80% .26
Jan
15		 Northern Arizona B- F D+ A+ D- 37% 21% 42% D D- D- A+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ C B F C- C- 48% 17% 35% F D+ F A+ B- B+ B- F C
1.25 37% 36% 45% -1 0 1.00 27% 2.0 .55 11% .34 90% .30 1.04 52% 63% 35% +2 +1 1.08 32% 0.6 .21 20% .24 77% .19
Jan
17		 Northern Colorado C+ A D C- B- 26% 27% 47% F C B- C B- B A+ D+ A+ D+ F C- B+ D+ 41% 16% 43% D+ D+ B B- B C B F C+
1.16 69% 35% 31% 0 -2 0.98 30% 1.2 .34 10% .47 74% .35 1.11 77% 40% 30% +5 +1 1.14 24% 1.0 .24 17% .20 85% .17
Jan
22		 Idaho C- D F F F 52% 31% 17% B- F A B+ A B F+ A+ C+ D- F A+ F F 37% 8% 56% D- F B- B B C+ C+ F D
1.06 53% 28% 10% -12 0 0.78 35% 1.2 .42 13% .27 100% .27 1.20 68% 0% 45% +10 +2 1.25 26% 0.9 .23 17% .27 88% .23
Jan
24		 Eastern Washington D C- F D+ F 41% 18% 41% C- F F A+ C- D A+ A+ A+ C- C- A+ A A 44% 14% 42% F+ A- D+ F F D- D+ F D-
1.03 56% 14% 31% -7 +1 0.90 19% 1.8 .35 18% .53 86% .45 1.16 59% 14% 29% -6 +1 0.92 33% 2.0 .67 15% .33 83% .27
Jan
29		 Montana St. B- C+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 30% 30% D- A+ F F F C+ D+ B- D+ D+ A+ F F C+ 26% 20% 54% C- C F B- D B F+ A- D
1.16 59% 63% 50% +15 -1 1.30 11% 0.7 .07 15% .23 79% .18 1.11 29% 55% 41% +2 -1 1.04 34% 1.0 .34 18% .32 68% .22
Jan
31		 Montana B A+ F A+ A+ 36% 21% 43% C A+ D- F F B- A C A D A+ F D- A 59% 4% 37% F B F F F B F C+ F+
1.19 79% 9% 48% +10 0 1.23 24% 0.5 .12 14% .39 71% .27 1.09 45% 50% 39% -5 +4 1.00 35% 1.6 .56 22% .37 76% .28
Feb
2		 Weber St. A A F+ A+ A+ 42% 21% 38% C- A+ D+ F F+ D A+ B+ A+ D D+ F+ A C+ 47% 12% 42% D+ C C+ F F D B- D- C
1.33 75% 30% 67% +24 0 1.50 25% 0.8 .21 18% .56 78% .44 1.15 61% 43% 28% -2 +2 1.02 30% 1.4 .43 14% .31 76% .24
Feb
7		 Portland St. C+ F F A+ D+ 33% 26% 41% D- D F+ C- D- A+ A+ A A+ D A+ C- A+ A+ 47% 16% 37% D+ A+ F F F F F F F
1.07 40% 17% 42% -6 -1 0.87 21% 1.0 .21 12% .50 83% .41 1.08 42% 38% 21% -15 +1 0.75 44% 1.2 .51 15% .45 77% .34
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
12		 Northern Colorado D F C F+ F 39% 17% 44% C F+ F C F+ B A+ A A+ D F F D+ F 45% 6% 48% F F B A A- C+ B D B-
0.99 43% 40% 27% -10 +1 0.83 17% 1.1 .20 10% .43 84% .36 1.20 79% 50% 37% +12 +2 1.31 24% 0.9 .21 18% .20 77% .15
Feb
14		 Northern Arizona D- A- B- F F 45% 14% 41% C+ F+ C- C C- D A+ B A+ C- F F A- F 39% 9% 52% F F D+ A+ A C+ F B F
1.04 68% 43% 20% -3 +1 0.98 31% 1.1 .34 18% .45 77% .34 1.11 72% 100% 29% +7 +2 1.20 26% 0.5 .13 17% .56 64% .36
Feb
19		 Eastern Washington A- A A+ F B+ 44% 27% 29% D B C+ A+ B+ A+ A+ C- A+ F F F F F 43% 8% 49% F F F F F D+ F A+ D
1.29 70% 57% 27% +7 0 1.15 33% 1.4 .45 10% .47 74% .35 1.40 68% 50% 44% +13 +2 1.31 44% 1.4 .62 16% .44 59% .26
Feb
21		 Idaho C- A+ F D+ C 29% 33% 37% D- C- F F F A- A+ A+ A+ F+ A- A+ F C- 35% 10% 54% D C- F D+ F A F D+ F
1.09 73% 29% 32% 0 -2 0.98 14% 0.4 .06 11% .51 85% .43 1.17 47% 20% 42% +1 +1 1.06 44% 1.1 .46 22% .47 74% .35
Feb
26		 Montana D+ D F F F 48% 19% 33% B F D+ A- C A C- A C+ D+ F B D+ D- 33% 12% 55% C- D A F C- D D D+ D-
1.01 54% 9% 26% -11 +1 0.81 26% 1.2 .30 11% .28 78% .22 1.12 75% 33% 37% +7 +1 1.18 14% 1.8 .24 18% .34 80% .27



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 48.7 10.6 59.3 8th
9th 35.2 3.7 39.0 9th
10th 1.8 1.8 10th
Total 37.0 52.4 10.6 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 10.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 10.5
6-12 52.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.5 51.9
5-13 37.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.5 36.5
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 16.0 98.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%
Lose Out 15.5%