Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -5.6 #258
Expected Predictive Rating -4.8 #240
Pace 77.1 #19
Improvement +3.2 #51

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #213 D C C+ B D
Defense #293 C- D C- C D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #293 1.05 #300 -4.2 #318
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #49 0.68 #305 +1.7 #88
Three Pointers 38% #248 0.98 #232 -2.4 #266
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #323 -4.9 #323
Freethrows 0.33 #103 77% #29 0.26 #62
Second Chance 28.0% #254 1.15 #41 0.32 #147
Turnovers 16.1% #125
Total Offense -1.6 #213

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #76 1.15 #169 -2.2 #254
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #351 0.93 #357 +1.4 #81
Three Pointers 44% #96 1.02 #186 -1.4 #250
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #255 -2.2 #254
Freethrows 0.31 #192 73% #246 0.22 #202
Second Chance 32.8% #275 1.13 #309 0.37 #313
Turnovers 16.4% #214
Total Defense -4.1 #293

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.4% #319 2.3% #352
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.3% #307 2.0% #221
Possession Length 16.1 #70 16.2 #30
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #87 0.20 #259
Improvement +4.6 #15 -1.4 #267

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 4.2% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.6% 1.3% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 39.6% 61.8% 27.6%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.1% 1.3% 7.1%
First Four2.4% 3.3% 2.0%
First Round1.8% 2.7% 1.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland St. (Home) - 35.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 33 - 103 - 16
Quad 47 - 210 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 11 135 UC Santa Barbara L 87 - 92 34% -6  0 - 1 -7 +7 B C+ C+ -13 C- C- F
 Fri, Nov 14 184 @UC Davis L 73 - 77 25% +2  0 - 2 -2 -2 F+ C+ C- -0 B+ D C
 Sun, Nov 16 265 Presbyterian W 64 - 62 62% -4  1 - 2 -7 -9 F+ A- F +3 A B+ D-
 Tue, Nov 18 33 @UCLA L 48 - 79 3% -19  1 - 3 -14 -17 F C C+ +4 B F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 65 @California L 67 - 91 6% -18  1 - 4 -12 -5 F B B- -6 F B- C+
 Sat, Nov 29 126 @Pacific L 54 - 68 16% -6  1 - 5 -9 -17 F C- C +8 B- B+ B-
 Tue, Dec 2 42 @Baylor L 88 - 110 4% -7  1 - 6 -7 +14 F+ A+ C- -19 F F C+
 Sat, Dec 20 138 @California Baptist L 67 - 74 17% -2  1 - 7 -3 +1 F A+ C -4 A F C+
 Mon, Dec 22 191 @Cal St. Northridge L 88 - 100 26% -4  1 - 8 -11 +3 D- D- A+ -12 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 243 @Idaho St. L 84 - 97 35% -10  1 - 9 0 - 1 -15 -4 F B- C -9 D- C F
 Sat, Jan 3 236 @Weber St. L 82 - 95 34% -10  1 - 10 0 - 2 -14 -1 C D- D- -12 D F+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 140 @Portland St. L 69 - 96 18% -14  1 - 11 0 - 3 -23 +0 F+ F A+ -22 F B F+
 Thu, Jan 15 306 Northern Arizona W 83 - 69 71% +1  2 - 11 1 - 3 +2 +6 D- A+ A+ -3 D+ B- B
 Sat, Jan 17 180 Northern Colorado W 93 - 89 OT 45% -7  3 - 11 2 - 3 -0 +4 C B- B+ -5 D+ B C
 Thu, Jan 22 187 @Idaho L 76 - 86 26% -7  3 - 12 2 - 4 -9 +2 F A+ B -10 F B- C
 Sat, Jan 24 234 @Eastern Washington L 67 - 75 33% -7  3 - 13 2 - 5 -9 -3 F D+ D -7 B+ F D-
 Thu, Jan 29 157 Montana St. W 83 - 80 40% +3  4 - 13 3 - 5 -0 +7 A+ F C+ -7 C D+ C+
 Sat, Jan 31 171 Montana W 86 - 79 43% +8  5 - 13 4 - 5 +3 +10 A+ F B- -6 B F B-
 Mon, Feb 2 236 Weber St. W 104 - 90 57% +12  6 - 13 5 - 5 +7 +15 A+ F C- -9 C F D
 Sat, Feb 7 140 Portland St. L 74 - 78 35%
 Thu, Feb 12 180 @Northern Colorado L 79 - 86 25%
 Sat, Feb 14 306 @Northern Arizona L 78 - 79 49%
 Thu, Feb 19 234 Eastern Washington W 83 - 82 56%
 Sat, Feb 21 187 Idaho L 79 - 80 47%
 Thu, Feb 26 171 @Montana L 77 - 85 23%
 Sat, Feb 28 157 @Montana St. L 72 - 81 21%
 Mon, Mar 2 243 Idaho St. W 80 - 78 58%
Totals 9 - 18 8 - 10 -6 -2 D C C+ -4 C- D C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.0 2.0 2nd
3rd 0.8 4.5 2.8 0.2 8.3 3rd
4th 0.8 7.9 6.9 0.6 16.2 4th
5th 0.3 7.9 10.0 1.2 0.0 19.4 5th
6th 0.0 4.1 11.9 2.3 0.0 18.3 6th
7th 1.2 10.6 4.7 0.2 16.6 7th
8th 0.3 5.6 6.1 0.5 12.6 8th
9th 1.5 3.6 0.3 5.4 9th
10th 0.7 0.3 1.0 10th
Total 2.5 10.7 21.3 25.8 21.2 13.0 4.4 1.0 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 10.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1
11-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.1
12-6 1.0% 9.3% 9.3% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.9
11-7 4.4% 6.5% 6.5% 15.7 0.1 0.2 4.1
10-8 13.0% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.8 12.2
9-9 21.2% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.7 20.5
8-10 25.8% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.7 25.1
7-11 21.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 21.1
6-12 10.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.7
5-13 2.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.5
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 15.9 97.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.4%