Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -6.3 270
Expected Predictive Rating -6.8 276
Pace 77.8 15
Improvement +1.9 112

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 205 D C B- B+ D
Defense D 315 D+ D C- C- F+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 295 D 53% 299 -4.1 323
2 Pt. Jumpers 47% 74 D+ 34% 293 +1.5 97
Three Pointers 38% 232 D+ 32% 258 -2.3 260
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.1 312 D -3.8 308
1st FG Attempt D 0.92 322
Second Chance D+ 27.7% 257 B 1.14 43 C 0.32 158
Turnovers B- 15.7% 110
Freethrows B 0.34 64 B+ 77% 26 B+ 0.27 33
Total Offense C- -1.3 205

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 46% 225 D 13.2% 302
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 29% 120 B- 3.9% 101
Three Pointers C- 81% 252 D+ 1.3% 285
Total C- 53% 239 C- 6.1% 236

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 79 C- 59% 208 +2.9 280
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% 361 F 48% 363 -1.6 61
Three Pointers 45% 74 C 34% 158 +1.6 267
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ +1.3 355 C- +1.5 242
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 269
Second Chance D 33.5% 303 D 1.12 307 D 0.38 322
Turnovers C- 16.2% 212
Freethrows C- 0.32 231 C 72% 187 C- 0.23 227
Total Defense D -5.0 315

Assists Blocks
Close Shots F+ 59% 347 C- 9.6% 222
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 32% 300 D- 1.1% 352
Three Pointers C 85% 193 C 1.0% 151
Total D- 64% 336 D+ 4.7% 256

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.2 71 16.1 23
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 111 0.19 255
Improvement +4.2 #20 -2.3 #299

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 1% 3% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 12% 3% 19%
First Four1% 1% 1%
First Round1% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Idaho (Home) - 45.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 33 - 113 - 17
Quad 45 - 38 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 11 144 UC Santa Barbara L 87 - 92 34% -6  10% 0 - 1 D+ -7 C+ +3 B C+ C+ F -10 D+ C- F
 Fri, Nov 14 181 @UC Davis L 73 - 77 22% +2  54% 0 - 2 C- -2 D+ -4 F+ B- C C+ +2 B+ D- C
 Sun, Nov 16 271 Presbyterian W 64 - 62 62% -4  11% 1 - 2 D+ -7 F -12 F A- F B +4 A B+ D-
 Tue, Nov 18 39 @UCLA L 48 - 79 3% -19  0% 1 - 3 F+ -15 F -21 F C B- B+ +7 B F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 71 @California L 67 - 91 6% -18  4% 1 - 4 D- -13 F+ -8 F B- B- C- -3 F B- B-
 Sat, Nov 29 127 @Pacific L 54 - 68 14% -6  7% 1 - 5 D -9 F -19 F C- C- A +10 B- B+ B
 Tue, Dec 2 48 @Baylor L 88 - 110 4% -7  33% 1 - 6 D+ -8 A- +11 F A+ C F -17 F F C+
 Sat, Dec 20 139 @California Baptist L 67 - 74 16% -2  32% 1 - 7 C- -3 C- -1 F A+ D+ C- -2 A F B-
 Mon, Dec 22 159 @Cal St. Northridge L 88 - 100 19% -4  18% 1 - 8 D -9 C+ +2 D D- A+ F+ -9 F A+ F+
 Thu, Jan 1 263 @Idaho St. L 84 - 97 36% -10  3% 1 - 9 0 - 1 F+ -16 D- -7 F B- C D- -7 F C F
 Sat, Jan 3 225 @Weber St. L 82 - 95 29% -10  1% 1 - 10 0 - 2 D- -14 D+ -3 C D D- F+ -9 D- F C-
 Sat, Jan 10 143 @Portland St. L 69 - 96 17% -14  13% 1 - 11 0 - 3 F -23 D+ -3 F+ F A+ F -19 F B+ F+
 Thu, Jan 15 311 Northern Arizona W 83 - 69 71% +1  43% 2 - 11 1 - 3 C+ +2 B- +4 D- A+ A+ C -1 D+ C+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 157 Northern Colorado W 93 - 89 OT 37% -7  7% 3 - 11 2 - 3 C +1 C+ +3 C B- B C- -3 D+ B C
 Thu, Jan 22 187 @Idaho L 76 - 86 24% -7  3% 3 - 12 2 - 4 D -9 C- -1 F A B D- -8 F B- C+
 Sat, Jan 24 201 @Eastern Washington L 67 - 75 25% -7  1% 3 - 13 2 - 5 D+ -7 D -6 F C- D C- -2 A- F D-
 Thu, Jan 29 148 Montana St. W 83 - 80 36% +3  68% 4 - 13 3 - 5 C +0 B- +4 A+ F C+ D+ -4 C D B
 Sat, Jan 31 183 Montana W 86 - 79 42% +8  86% 5 - 13 4 - 5 C+ +3 B +7 A+ F B- D+ -5 B F B-
 Mon, Feb 2 225 Weber St. W 104 - 90 51% +12  88% 6 - 13 5 - 5 B- +7 A +13 A+ F+ D+ D- -7 C F D
 Sat, Feb 7 143 Portland St. L 73 - 74 34% +1  53% 6 - 14 5 - 6 C- -3 C+ +2 D+ D- A+ D -5 A+ F F
 Thu, Feb 12 157 @Northern Colorado L 79 - 95 19% -10  0% 6 - 15 5 - 7 D- -13 D -5 F+ F+ B D -6 F A- C+
 Sat, Feb 14 311 @Northern Arizona L 74 - 79 48% -10  0% 6 - 16 5 - 8 D -11 F+ -8 F+ C- D C- -3 F A C
 Thu, Feb 19 201 Eastern Washington L 94 - 102 46% -13  0% 6 - 17 5 - 9 D- -13 A- +9 B- B A+ F -23 F F D
 Sat, Feb 21 187 Idaho L 80 - 82 45%
 Thu, Feb 26 183 @Montana L 77 - 85 23%
 Sat, Feb 28 148 @Montana St. L 73 - 83 19%
 Mon, Mar 2 263 Idaho St. W 81 - 79 59%
Totals 7 - 20 6 - 12 -6 C- -1 C+ D D D -5 D+ B+ B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D D+ D+ D 35% 47% 38% D D D+ B C B- B B+ B+ D C- F C C- 43% 13% 45% F+ D+ D D D C- C- C C-
1.07 53% 34% 32% -4 -1 0.92 28% 1.1 .32 16% .34 77% .27 1.16 59% 48% 34% +1 +1 1.08 34% 1.1 .38 16% .32 72% .25
Nov
11		 UC Santa Barbara C+ D+ A+ A B+ 40% 27% 33% D+ B D+ A+ C+ C+ B- F C- F B B F C- 44% 17% 39% D D+ B F C- F F+ C+ D-
1.19 57% 57% 41% +8 -1 1.17 24% 1.4 .32 16% .37 65% .24 1.25 54% 33% 48% +5 +1 1.15 29% 1.2 .34 11% .38 76% .29
Nov
14		 UC Davis D+ D- C- D- F 52% 22% 26% C F+ C B B- C B A A- C+ C F A+ A 41% 8% 51% F B+ C+ F D- C F D+ F
1.01 50% 36% 31% -6 +1 0.92 31% 1.1 .34 19% .36 81% .29 1.06 60% 50% 24% -6 +2 0.94 26% 1.3 .34 18% .45 78% .35
Nov
16		 Presbyterian F D A+ F F 61% 16% 23% B+ F B- A+ A- F A+ B A+ B C+ A A+ A+ 47% 14% 39% F A D+ A+ B+ D- D B+ C-
0.96 52% 57% 10% -9 +2 0.89 33% 1.3 .43 26% .51 72% .36 0.93 57% 29% 16% -13 +1 0.80 35% 0.7 .25 17% .38 62% .23
Nov
18		 UCLA F F F F F 26% 28% 47% D- F C C C B- A+ F A+ B+ C- D+ A A- 42% 24% 34% D- B C F F A+ F A+ D
0.68 42% 23% 9% -26 -2 0.47 28% 0.9 .26 18% .52 63% .33 1.12 62% 42% 29% 0 0 1.02 33% 1.5 .52 21% .43 67% .29
Nov
21		 California F+ F F D- F 35% 24% 41% D+ F A- D+ B- B- A+ A+ A+ C- D F D- F 32% 11% 58% F+ F C- A B- B- B A+ A+
0.89 26% 23% 27% -19 -1 0.63 36% 0.9 .32 15% .47 80% .37 1.21 67% 83% 39% +12 +1 1.28 29% 0.9 .26 16% .30 53% .16
Nov
29		 Pacific F D F F F 34% 29% 38% C F D- A C- C- F A+ D A A- B- D B- 36% 15% 49% D+ B- C- A+ B+ B A+ C+ A+
0.76 53% 13% 19% -18 -1 0.64 18% 1.3 .23 16% .20 92% .18 0.96 47% 38% 38% -1 +1 1.02 35% 0.8 .27 23% .15 75% .11
Dec
2		 Baylor A- A+ F D- F+ 8% 45% 47% F F A+ A+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ F F F A+ F 33% 35% 33% B- F F F F C+ F C- F
1.16 75% 30% 29% -5 -5 0.80 45% 1.4 .62 17% .48 87% .41 1.45 100% 65% 25% +19 -2 1.35 61% 1.4 .82 16% .58 76% .44
Dec
20		 California Baptist C- F A+ F F 22% 35% 44% F F A+ A+ A+ D+ F A+ F C- A+ F B A+ 61% 9% 30% F A D- F F B- F B- F
0.99 17% 58% 21% -11 -3 0.75 38% 1.4 .51 16% .11 83% .09 1.10 33% 50% 31% -16 +3 0.77 43% 1.3 .55 19% .55 70% .38
Dec
22		 Cal St. Northridge C+ F+ B D D+ 32% 32% 35% F+ D F A+ D- A+ A- A+ A+ F+ D F D F 50% 9% 41% F+ F A A+ A+ F+ F F F
1.08 48% 43% 30% -4 -2 0.91 15% 1.5 .23 10% .37 89% .33 1.23 62% 80% 38% +8 +2 1.22 25% 0.7 .17 13% .43 77% .33
Jan
1		 Idaho St. D- F A D- F 37% 31% 31% F+ F D A+ B- C A+ D A+ D- A- D+ F F 37% 12% 51% C- F A- F C F F+ B D
1.04 35% 53% 29% -6 -1 0.87 26% 1.5 .38 15% .54 73% .39 1.20 48% 43% 48% +8 +1 1.19 26% 1.2 .32 12% .38 70% .27
Jan
3		 Weber St. D+ A+ F B+ B 21% 37% 42% F C C F D D- B+ F C F+ A- D+ F D- 49% 16% 35% C- D- D+ F F C- F D- F
1.06 100% 24% 38% +6 -3 1.07 30% 0.8 .25 19% .39 63% .24 1.23 48% 38% 50% +3 +1 1.12 34% 1.2 .41 16% .52 76% .40
Jan
10		 Portland St. D+ C C+ F D- 29% 38% 33% F F+ F F F A+ B B B+ F F F F F 50% 9% 41% F F F A+ B+ F+ C- F D-
0.95 56% 38% 17% -9 -3 0.78 17% 0.6 .10 7% .42 79% .33 1.33 70% 60% 45% +15 +2 1.37 42% 0.5 .23 15% .33 80% .26
Jan
15		 Northern Arizona B- F D+ A+ D- 37% 21% 42% D D- D- A+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ C B F C- C- 48% 17% 35% F D+ F A+ C+ B+ B- F C-
1.25 37% 36% 45% -1 0 1.00 27% 2.0 .55 11% .34 90% .30 1.04 52% 63% 35% +2 +1 1.08 32% 0.6 .21 20% .24 77% .19
Jan
17		 Northern Colorado C+ A D C- B- 26% 27% 47% F C B- C B- B A+ D+ A+ C- F C- A- D+ 41% 16% 43% D+ D+ B B- B C B F C
1.16 69% 35% 31% 0 -2 0.98 30% 1.2 .34 10% .47 74% .35 1.11 77% 40% 30% +5 +1 1.14 24% 1.0 .24 17% .20 85% .17
Jan
22		 Idaho C- D F F F 52% 31% 17% C+ F A- B A B F+ A+ B- D- F A+ F F 37% 8% 56% D- F C+ B B- C+ C+ F D+
1.06 53% 28% 10% -12 0 0.78 35% 1.2 .42 13% .27 100% .27 1.20 68% 0% 45% +10 +2 1.25 26% 0.9 .23 17% .27 88% .23
Jan
24		 Eastern Washington D D+ F D F 41% 18% 41% C- F F A+ C- D A+ A+ A+ C- C- A+ A A 44% 14% 42% F+ A- D+ F F D- D+ F D-
1.03 56% 14% 31% -7 +1 0.90 19% 1.8 .35 18% .53 86% .45 1.16 59% 14% 29% -6 +1 0.92 33% 2.0 .67 15% .33 83% .27
Jan
29		 Montana St. B- C+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 30% 30% D- A+ F F F C+ D B- D+ D+ A+ F F C 26% 20% 54% C- C F+ C+ D B F+ A- D+
1.16 59% 63% 50% +15 -1 1.30 11% 0.7 .07 15% .23 79% .18 1.11 29% 55% 41% +2 -1 1.04 34% 1.0 .34 18% .32 68% .22
Jan
31		 Montana B A+ F A+ A+ 36% 21% 43% C A+ D- F F B- A C+ A D+ A+ F D- A 59% 4% 37% F B F F F B- F+ C F+
1.19 79% 9% 48% +11 0 1.23 24% 0.5 .12 14% .39 71% .27 1.09 45% 50% 39% -5 +4 1.00 35% 1.6 .56 22% .37 76% .28
Feb
2		 Weber St. A A F+ A+ A+ 42% 21% 38% D+ A+ D+ F F+ D+ A+ B+ A+ D- D+ F+ A C 47% 12% 42% D+ C C+ F F D B- D- C
1.33 75% 30% 67% +24 0 1.50 25% 0.8 .21 18% .56 78% .44 1.15 61% 43% 28% -2 +2 1.02 30% 1.4 .43 14% .31 76% .24
Feb
7		 Portland St. C+ F F A+ D+ 33% 26% 41% D- D+ F+ C+ D- A+ A+ A A+ D A+ C A+ A+ 47% 16% 37% D+ A+ F F F F F F F
1.07 40% 17% 42% -6 -1 0.87 21% 1.0 .21 12% .50 83% .41 1.08 42% 38% 21% -15 +1 0.75 44% 1.2 .51 15% .45 77% .34
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
12		 Northern Colorado D F C F+ F 39% 17% 44% C F+ F C F+ B A+ A A+ D F F D+ F 45% 6% 48% F F B A A- C+ B- D+ B-
0.99 43% 40% 27% -10 +1 0.83 17% 1.1 .20 10% .43 84% .36 1.20 79% 50% 37% +12 +2 1.31 24% 0.9 .21 18% .20 77% .15
Feb
14		 Northern Arizona F+ B+ B- F F 45% 14% 41% C+ F+ C- C C- D A+ B- A+ C- F F A- F 39% 9% 52% F F D+ A+ A C F B F
1.04 68% 43% 20% -3 +1 0.98 31% 1.1 .34 18% .45 77% .34 1.11 72% 100% 29% +7 +2 1.20 26% 0.5 .13 17% .56 64% .36
Feb
19		 Eastern Washington A- A- A+ F B 44% 27% 29% D- B- C A B A+ A+ C- A+ F F F F F 43% 8% 49% F F F F F D F A+ D
1.29 70% 57% 27% +7 0 1.15 33% 1.4 .45 10% .47 74% .35 1.40 68% 50% 44% +13 +2 1.31 44% 1.4 .62 16% .44 59% .26



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.4 0.4 4th
5th 0.3 0.7 1.0 5th
6th 0.0 3.7 0.4 4.1 6th
7th 0.5 9.6 6.3 0.0 16.4 7th
8th 3.5 32.7 23.9 1.1 61.3 8th
9th 9.7 4.9 0.0 14.7 9th
10th 2.1 0.1 2.2 10th
Total 15.3 38.2 33.6 11.4 1.5 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 1.5% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.1 1.4
8-10 11.4% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.2 11.2
7-11 33.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.4 33.2
6-12 38.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.3 37.9
5-13 15.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 15.2
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 16.0 99.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 7.7%