Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -6.9 284
Results Rating -7.6 288
Consistency 0.09 2
Pace 77.5 15
Improvement +0.4 174

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 209 D C- B- B+ D
Defense D 318 D+ D- C C- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 292 D 53% 298 -3.9 317
2 Pt. Jumpers 47% 84 D 33% 322 +0.8 131
Three Pointers 39% 222 D+ 32% 257 -2.1 253
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.0 305 D -4.1 316
1st FG Attempt D 0.92 333
Second Chance D+ 26.6% 288 B 1.13 51 C- 0.30 203
Opponents' Steals D+ 10.5% 286
Other Turnovers A 4.6% 3
Turnovers B- 15.2% 87
Freethrows B 0.34 63 B+ 77% 26 B+ 0.26 33
Total Offense C- -1.6 209

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C- 47% 216 D+ 13.0% 303
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 28% 132 C+ 4.8% 170
Three Pointers D+ 80% 278 D+ 1.3% 286
Total C- 53% 235 C- 6.3% 257


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 104 C- 60% 235 +2.7 275
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% 360 F 45% 351 -1.9 38
Three Pointers 45% 59 C 34% 194 +2.3 294
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- +1.2 353 D+ +1.8 258
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 285
Second Chance D 34.0% 318 D 1.13 310 D- 0.39 335
Turnovers from Steals C+ 9.9% 154
Other Turnovers D+ 6.6% 271
Turnovers C 16.5% 191
Freethrows C- 0.32 235 C 72% 165 C- 0.23 237
Total Defense D -5.3 318

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 58% 342 D+ 8.5% 270
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 31% 287 F+ 0.7% 358
Three Pointers C- 85% 197 C 0.8% 168
Total D- 63% 334 D 4.0% 308

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.3 71 16.3 27
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 87 0.19 253
Consistency 0.12 115 0.10 42
Improvement +2.9 56 -2.5 307

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 298 284 268
Results Rating Rank 311 285 263
Conference Record 5 - 13 6 - 12 6 - 12
Conference Finish 9 8 8
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 11% 0% 25%
First Four1% 1% 1%
First Round1% 0% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Idaho St. (Home) - 55.6% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 122 - 18
Quad 45 - 47 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 11 142 UC Santa Barbara L 87 - 92 32% -6  10% 0 - 1 D+ -7 B- +4 B+ C+ C F -11 D+ C- F
 Fri, Nov 14 176 @UC Davis L 73 - 77 20% +2  54% 0 - 2 C- -2 D+ -4 F+ B- C- C+ +2 B+ D- C
 Sun, Nov 16 271 Presbyterian W 64 - 62 59% -4  11% 1 - 2 D+ -7 F -12 F A F B +5 A B+ D
 Tue, Nov 18 36 @UCLA L 48 - 79 2% -19  0% 1 - 3 D- -14 F -22 F C- C+ A- +8 B+ F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 73 @California L 67 - 91 6% -18  4% 1 - 4 D- -13 D- -7 F B- B D+ -5 F B- B-
 Sat, Nov 29 127 @Pacific L 54 - 68 13% -6  7% 1 - 5 D -8 F -18 F C- C- A +10 B- B+ B
 Tue, Dec 2 47 @Baylor L 88 - 110 3% -7  33% 1 - 6 D+ -7 A- +10 F+ A+ C F -16 F F B-
 Sat, Dec 20 132 @California Baptist L 67 - 74 14% -2  32% 1 - 7 C- -2 C- -1 F A+ D+ C- -2 A F B
 Mon, Dec 22 168 @Cal St. Northridge L 88 - 100 19% -4  18% 1 - 8 D -10 C+ +2 D D- A+ F -10 F A+ F+
 Thu, Jan 1 258 @Idaho St. L 84 - 97 33% -10  3% 1 - 9 0 - 1 F+ -15 D- -6 F B C D- -7 F C F
 Sat, Jan 3 201 @Weber St. L 82 - 95 23% -10  1% 1 - 10 0 - 2 D- -12 D+ -3 C D F+ D- -8 D F+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 164 @Portland St. L 69 - 96 19% -14  13% 1 - 11 0 - 3 F -24 D+ -3 F F A+ F -20 F B+ F+
 Thu, Jan 15 314 Northern Arizona W 83 - 69 71% +1  43% 2 - 11 1 - 3 C +1 C+ +3 F+ A+ A+ C -1 D B- B
 Sat, Jan 17 161 Northern Colorado W 93 - 89 OT 37% -7  7% 3 - 11 2 - 3 C +1 C+ +3 C B- B C- -3 D+ B C
 Thu, Jan 22 186 @Idaho L 76 - 86 22% -7  3% 3 - 12 2 - 4 D -9 C- -1 F A B D- -8 F B C+
 Sat, Jan 24 170 @Eastern Washington L 67 - 75 19% -7  1% 3 - 13 2 - 5 D+ -6 D -4 F C- D C- -2 A- F D-
 Thu, Jan 29 148 Montana St. W 83 - 80 33% +3  68% 4 - 13 3 - 5 C +1 B- +5 A+ F C D+ -4 C D B
 Sat, Jan 31 185 Montana W 86 - 79 42% +8  86% 5 - 13 4 - 5 C+ +2 B +7 A+ F B- D -5 B F B
 Mon, Feb 2 201 Weber St. W 104 - 90 44% +12  88% 6 - 13 5 - 5 B +9 A +13 A+ F+ D D -6 C+ F D
 Sat, Feb 7 164 Portland St. L 73 - 74 37% +1  53% 6 - 14 5 - 6 C- -4 C+ +2 D D- A+ D- -6 A+ F F
 Thu, Feb 12 161 @Northern Colorado L 79 - 95 18% -10  0% 6 - 15 5 - 7 D- -13 D -5 F+ F+ B D -6 F B+ C+
 Sat, Feb 14 314 @Northern Arizona L 74 - 79 49% -10  0% 6 - 16 5 - 8 D- -12 F+ -8 F+ C- D C- -3 F A C
 Thu, Feb 19 170 Eastern Washington L 94 - 102 38% -13  0% 6 - 17 5 - 9 D- -12 A- +11 B B+ A+ F -22 F F D+
 Sat, Feb 21 186 Idaho L 80 - 86 42% -3  6% 6 - 18 5 - 10 D -11 C- -1 C- F A- F+ -9 D+ F A+
 Thu, Feb 26 185 @Montana L 73 - 81 22% -8  0% 6 - 19 5 - 11 D+ -7 D+ -3 F C A D+ -4 D C D
 Sat, Feb 28 148 @Montana St. L 61 - 82 16% -9  0% 6 - 20 5 - 12 F+ -17 F+ -9 F F A+ F+ -9 F+ F A-
 Mon, Mar 2 258 Idaho St. W 81 - 80 56%
Totals 7 - 20 6 - 12 -7 C- -2 B D D D -5 D+ B+ B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D D D+ D 35% 47% 39% D D D+ B C- B- B B+ B+ D C- F C D+ 42% 13% 45% D- D+ D D D- C C- C C-
1.06 53% 33% 32% -4 -1 0.92 27% 1.1 .30 15% .34 77% .26 1.16 60% 45% 34% +2 +1 1.08 34% 1.1 .39 17% .32 72% .25
Nov
11		 UC Santa Barbara B- C- A+ A A- 40% 27% 33% D+ B+ D+ A+ C+ C B- F C- F B B F C- 44% 17% 39% D D+ B- F+ C- F F+ C F+
1.19 57% 57% 41% +8 -1 1.17 24% 1.4 .32 16% .37 65% .24 1.25 54% 33% 48% +5 +1 1.15 29% 1.2 .34 11% .38 76% .29
Nov
14		 UC Davis D+ D- C- D- F 52% 22% 26% C F+ C B B- C- B A A- C+ C- F A+ A 41% 8% 51% F B+ C+ F D- C F D+ F
1.01 50% 36% 31% -6 +1 0.92 31% 1.1 .34 19% .36 81% .29 1.06 60% 50% 24% -6 +2 0.94 26% 1.3 .34 18% .45 78% .35
Nov
16		 Presbyterian F D A+ F F 61% 16% 23% B+ F B- A+ A F A+ B A+ B C A A+ A+ 47% 14% 39% F A D A+ B+ D D A- C
0.96 52% 57% 10% -9 +2 0.89 33% 1.3 .43 26% .51 72% .36 0.93 57% 29% 16% -13 +1 0.80 35% 0.7 .25 17% .38 62% .23
Nov
18		 UCLA F F F F F 26% 28% 47% D- F C- C- C- C+ A+ F A+ A- C- C- A A 42% 24% 34% D- B+ C F F A+ F A+ D
0.68 42% 23% 9% -26 -2 0.47 28% 0.9 .26 18% .52 63% .33 1.12 62% 42% 29% 0 0 1.02 33% 1.5 .52 21% .43 67% .29
Nov
21		 California D- F F F+ F 35% 24% 41% D+ F A- D B- B A+ A+ A+ D+ D- F D- F 32% 11% 58% F F C- A- B- B- B- A+ A+
0.89 26% 23% 27% -19 -1 0.63 36% 0.9 .32 15% .47 80% .37 1.21 67% 83% 39% +12 +1 1.28 29% 0.9 .26 16% .30 53% .16
Nov
29		 Pacific F D F F F 34% 29% 38% C F D- A+ C- C- F A+ D- A A- B- D B- 36% 15% 49% D+ B- C A B+ B A+ C A+
0.76 53% 13% 19% -18 -1 0.64 18% 1.3 .23 16% .20 92% .18 0.96 47% 38% 38% -1 +1 1.02 35% 0.8 .27 23% .15 75% .11
Dec
2		 Baylor A- A+ F+ D- F+ 8% 45% 47% F F+ A+ A+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ F F F A+ F 33% 35% 33% B- F F F F B- F D+ F
1.16 75% 30% 29% -6 -5 0.80 45% 1.4 .62 17% .48 87% .41 1.45 100% 65% 25% +19 -2 1.35 61% 1.4 .82 16% .58 76% .44
Dec
20		 California Baptist C- F A+ F F 22% 35% 44% F F A A+ A+ D+ F A+ F C- A+ F B A+ 61% 9% 30% F A D- F F B F B- F
0.99 17% 58% 21% -11 -3 0.75 38% 1.4 .51 16% .11 83% .09 1.10 33% 50% 31% -16 +3 0.77 43% 1.3 .55 19% .55 70% .38
Dec
22		 Cal St. Northridge C+ F+ B D D+ 32% 32% 35% F+ D F A+ D- A+ A- A+ A+ F D F D F 50% 9% 41% F+ F A A+ A+ F+ F F F
1.08 48% 43% 30% -4 -2 0.91 15% 1.5 .23 10% .37 89% .33 1.23 62% 80% 38% +8 +2 1.22 25% 0.7 .17 13% .43 77% .33
Jan
1		 Idaho St. D- F A D- F 37% 31% 31% F+ F D A+ B C A+ D- A+ D- A- D+ F F 37% 12% 51% C- F A- F C F F B D-
1.04 35% 53% 29% -6 -2 0.87 26% 1.5 .38 15% .54 73% .39 1.20 48% 43% 48% +8 +1 1.19 26% 1.2 .32 12% .38 70% .27
Jan
3		 Weber St. D+ A+ F B+ B 21% 37% 42% F C C F D F+ B+ F C D- A- C- F D- 49% 16% 35% C- D D+ F F+ C- F D- F
1.06 100% 24% 38% +6 -3 1.07 30% 0.8 .25 19% .39 63% .24 1.23 48% 38% 50% +3 +1 1.12 34% 1.2 .41 16% .52 76% .40
Jan
10		 Portland St. D+ C C+ F D- 29% 38% 33% F F F F F A+ B+ B A- F F F F F 50% 9% 41% F F F A+ B+ F+ D+ F F+
0.95 56% 38% 17% -9 -3 0.78 17% 0.6 .10 7% .42 79% .33 1.33 70% 60% 45% +15 +2 1.37 42% 0.5 .23 15% .33 80% .26
Jan
15		 Northern Arizona C+ F D+ A+ D- 37% 21% 42% D F+ D- A+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ C B F C- D+ 48% 17% 35% F D F A+ B- B B- F C-
1.25 37% 36% 45% -1 0 1.00 27% 2.0 .55 11% .34 90% .30 1.04 52% 63% 35% +2 +1 1.08 32% 0.6 .21 20% .24 77% .19
Jan
17		 Northern Colorado C+ A D C- B- 26% 27% 47% F C B- C+ B- B A+ D+ A+ C- F C- A- D+ 41% 16% 43% D+ D+ B B- B C B F C+
1.16 69% 35% 31% 0 -2 0.98 30% 1.2 .34 10% .47 74% .35 1.11 77% 40% 30% +5 +1 1.14 24% 1.0 .24 17% .20 85% .17
Jan
22		 Idaho C- D+ F F F 52% 31% 17% C+ F A A- A B F A+ C+ D- F A+ F F 37% 8% 56% D- F B- B B C+ C+ F D
1.06 53% 28% 10% -12 0 0.78 35% 1.2 .42 13% .27 100% .27 1.20 68% 0% 45% +10 +2 1.25 26% 0.9 .23 17% .27 88% .23
Jan
24		 Eastern Washington D C- F D F 41% 18% 41% C- F F A+ C- D A+ A+ A+ C- C- A+ A A 44% 14% 42% F+ A- D+ F F D- D+ F F+
1.03 56% 14% 31% -7 +1 0.90 19% 1.8 .35 18% .53 86% .45 1.16 59% 14% 29% -6 +1 0.92 33% 2.0 .67 15% .33 83% .27
Jan
29		 Montana St. B- C+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 30% 30% D- A+ F F F C D+ B- D+ D+ A+ F F C+ 26% 20% 54% C- C F+ B- D B F+ B+ D
1.16 59% 63% 50% +15 -1 1.30 11% 0.7 .07 15% .23 79% .18 1.11 29% 55% 41% +2 -1 1.04 34% 1.0 .34 18% .32 68% .22
Jan
31		 Montana B A+ F A+ A+ 36% 21% 43% C A+ D- F F B- A C A D A+ F D- A 59% 4% 37% F B F F F B F C F+
1.19 79% 9% 48% +10 0 1.23 24% 0.5 .12 14% .39 71% .27 1.09 45% 50% 39% -5 +4 1.00 35% 1.6 .56 22% .37 76% .28
Feb
2		 Weber St. A A+ F+ A+ A+ 42% 21% 38% C- A+ D F F+ D A+ B A+ D D+ F+ A C+ 47% 12% 42% D+ C+ C+ F F D B- D C
1.33 75% 30% 67% +24 0 1.50 25% 0.8 .21 18% .56 78% .44 1.15 61% 43% 28% -2 +2 1.02 30% 1.4 .43 14% .31 76% .24
Feb
7		 Portland St. C+ F F A+ D+ 33% 26% 41% D- D F+ C- D- A+ A+ A+ A+ D- A+ C- A+ A+ 47% 16% 37% D+ A+ F F F F F F F
1.07 40% 17% 42% -6 -1 0.87 21% 1.0 .21 12% .50 83% .41 1.08 42% 38% 21% -15 +1 0.75 44% 1.2 .51 15% .45 77% .34
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
12		 Northern Colorado D F C F+ F 39% 17% 44% C- F+ F C+ F+ B A+ A A+ D F F D+ F 45% 6% 48% F F B A B+ C+ B D+ B-
0.99 43% 40% 27% -10 +1 0.83 17% 1.1 .20 10% .43 84% .36 1.20 79% 50% 37% +12 +2 1.31 24% 0.9 .21 18% .20 77% .15
Feb
14		 Northern Arizona F+ B+ B- F F 45% 14% 41% C+ F+ C- C- C- D A+ B A+ C- F F A- F 39% 9% 52% F F D+ A+ A C F B- F
1.04 68% 43% 20% -3 +1 0.98 31% 1.1 .34 18% .45 77% .34 1.11 72% 100% 29% +7 +2 1.20 26% 0.5 .13 17% .56 64% .36
Feb
19		 Eastern Washington A- A A+ F B+ 44% 27% 29% D B C+ A B+ A+ A+ C- A+ F F F F F 43% 8% 49% F F F F F D+ F A+ D-
1.29 70% 57% 27% +7 0 1.15 33% 1.4 .45 10% .47 74% .35 1.40 68% 50% 44% +13 +2 1.31 44% 1.4 .62 16% .44 59% .26
Feb
21		 Idaho C- A+ F D+ C- 29% 33% 37% D- C- F F F A- A+ A+ A+ F+ A- A+ F C- 35% 10% 54% D D+ F D F A+ F D+ F
1.09 73% 29% 32% 0 -2 0.98 14% 0.4 .06 11% .51 85% .43 1.17 47% 20% 42% +1 +1 1.06 44% 1.1 .46 22% .47 74% .35
Feb
26		 Montana D+ D F F F 48% 19% 33% B F D A- C A C- A C+ D+ F B D+ D- 33% 12% 55% C- D A F C D D D D-
1.01 54% 9% 26% -11 +1 0.81 26% 1.2 .30 11% .28 78% .22 1.12 75% 33% 37% +7 +1 1.18 14% 1.8 .24 18% .34 80% .27
Feb
28		 Montana St. F+ F D- B- F 42% 22% 36% C- F F A+ F A+ C F D+ F+ F A- D+ D- 28% 12% 60% F F+ F F F A- B- A+ A+
0.92 30% 33% 35% -12 0 0.78 10% 1.8 .18 5% .27 65% .17 1.24 79% 33% 37% +8 0 1.18 45% 1.4 .61 20% .22 42% .09



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 55.6 55.6 8th
9th 44.4 44.4 9th
10th 10th
Total 44.4 55.6 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12 55.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.4 55.2
5-13 44.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.5 43.9
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 16.0 99.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.4%
Lose Out 18.2%