Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.5 #293
Expected Predictive Rating -11.8 #329
Pace 78.9 #18
Improvement -2.1 #296

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #283 F C B- C D-
Defense #284 C- D+ D+ C- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #278 0.96 #350 -5.5 #339
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #40 0.72 #211 +2.7 #59
Three Pointers 36% #280 0.82 #341 -5.9 #338
1st FG Attempt 0.84 #357 -8.7 #358
Freethrows 17.6 #172 73% #172 12.8 #166
Second Chance 30.2% #203 1.22 #25 0.37 #88
Turnovers 17.1% #207
Total Offense -4.1 #283

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #91 1.11 #115 -0.8 #206
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #330 0.91 #347 +0.8 #132
Three Pointers 43% #118 1.02 #192 -1.1 #222
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #217 -1.1 #217
Freethrows 19.2 #277 73% #211 14.1 #80
Second Chance 31.6% #215 1.14 #293 0.36 #268
Turnovers 15.6% #253
Total Defense -3.4 #284

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.6% #325 1.9% #329
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -14.9% #355 0.3% #188
Possession Length 15.5 #43 16.5 #68
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #129 0.21 #290
Improvement -0.1 #195 -2.0 #306

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.3% 2.4% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.4% 1.7% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 10.7% 24.6% 8.1%
Conference Champion 0.4% 1.4% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 43.2% 23.6% 46.9%
First Four1.2% 1.9% 1.1%
First Round0.8% 1.7% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland St. (Away) - 15.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 101 - 15
Quad 46 - 77 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 11 171 UC Santa Barbara L 87-92 36%     -6.2   0 - 1 -8.9 +6.1 -14.7
  Fri, Nov 14 185 @UC Davis L 73-77 20%     1.5   0 - 2 -2.6 -1.9 -0.5
  Sun, Nov 16 276 Presbyterian W 64-62 57%     -3.9   1 - 2 -7.4 -8.7 +1.4
  Tue, Nov 18 37 @UCLA L 48-79 2%     -18.6   1 - 3 -14.9 -18.6 +4.1
  Fri, Nov 21 78 @California L 67-91 6%     -18.4   1 - 4 -13.6 -5.5 -6.5
  Sat, Nov 29 141 @Pacific L 54-68 14%     -5.7   1 - 5 -9.9 -17.3 +7.5
  Tue, Dec 2 30 @Baylor L 88-110 2%     -6.9   1 - 6 -4.8 +13.7 -16.8
  Sat, Dec 20 148 @California Baptist L 67-74 15%     -1.7   1 - 7 -3.5 -0.3 -3.4
  Mon, Dec 22 201 @Cal St. Northridge L 88-100 22%     -4.2   1 - 8 -11.5 +2.6 -12.4
  Thu, Jan 1 179 @Idaho St. L 84-97 19%     -10.5   1 - 9 0 - 1 -11.3 -1.2 -8.4
  Sat, Jan 3 224 @Weber St. L 82-95 25%     -9.9   1 - 10 0 - 2 -13.5 -0.3 -12.0
  Sat, Jan 10 154 @Portland St. L 71-82 16%    
  Thu, Jan 15 288 Northern Arizona W 78-75 60%    
  Sat, Jan 17 175 Northern Colorado L 79-82 37%    
  Thu, Jan 22 181 @Idaho L 73-82 20%    
  Sat, Jan 24 248 @Eastern Washington L 82-87 31%    
  Thu, Jan 29 156 Montana St. L 74-78 35%    
  Sat, Jan 31 190 Montana L 81-83 41%    
  Mon, Feb 2 224 Weber St. L 81-82 47%    
  Sat, Feb 7 154 Portland St. L 74-79 34%    
  Thu, Feb 12 175 @Northern Colorado L 76-85 19%    
  Sat, Feb 14 288 @Northern Arizona L 75-78 38%    
  Thu, Feb 19 248 Eastern Washington W 85-84 52%    
  Sat, Feb 21 181 Idaho L 76-79 38%    
  Thu, Feb 26 190 @Montana L 78-86 22%    
  Sat, Feb 28 156 @Montana St. L 71-81 17%    
  Mon, Mar 2 179 Idaho St. L 76-79 39%    
Projected Record 6 - 21 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 2.6 0.6 0.0 4.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.8 1.4 0.0 7.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.2 2.8 0.2 0.0 10.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.5 7.3 4.2 0.6 16.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.1 6.4 9.0 5.2 0.8 0.0 23.7 9th
10th 0.7 2.7 6.3 9.1 7.8 3.8 0.8 0.0 31.1 10th
Total 0.7 2.7 6.6 11.2 14.9 16.6 15.6 12.2 8.8 5.6 2.9 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 80.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 52.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 24.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 6.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.2% 11.1% 11.1% 15.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.5% 7.5% 7.5% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 1.5% 6.0% 6.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.4
10-8 2.9% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.2 2.8
9-9 5.6% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.3 5.3
8-10 8.8% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.2 8.6
7-11 12.2% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 12.0
6-12 15.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 15.5
5-13 16.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 16.5
4-14 14.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.9
3-15 11.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.1
2-16 6.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.6
1-17 2.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.7
0-18 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7
Total 100% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.3 98.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%