Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.3#317
Expected Predictive Rating-10.6#328
Pace60.4#351
Improvement-0.4#208

Offense
Total Offense-5.6#311
First Shot-5.2#318
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#203
Layup/Dunks-4.1#321
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#324
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#141
Freethrows+0.4#147
Improvement-1.6#275

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#283
First Shot-3.5#300
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#210
Layups/Dunks+0.2#170
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#230
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#279
Freethrows-1.2#273
Improvement+1.2#113
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland St. (Home) - 42.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 33 - 73 - 12
Quad 43 - 116 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 45   @ Nevada L 63-77 3%     0 - 1 -0.7 -0.9 -0.2
  Nov 10, 2023 98   @ Stanford L 73-91 6%     0 - 2 -9.6 +3.4 -13.0
  Nov 17, 2023 120   @ Tulane L 57-92 8%     0 - 3 -29.1 -18.0 -9.6
  Nov 20, 2023 239   Cal St. Bakersfield L 71-75 30%     0 - 4 -7.8 +1.5 -9.5
  Nov 22, 2023 217   Austin Peay L 71-74 27%     0 - 5 -6.1 -5.7 -0.3
  Nov 26, 2023 189   @ UC Davis W 69-63 16%     1 - 5 +7.2 -1.1 +8.2
  Dec 02, 2023 152   @ Long Beach St. L 73-83 12%     1 - 6 -6.5 -0.8 -5.4
  Dec 09, 2023 232   Cal St. Fullerton L 60-62 38%     1 - 7 -8.3 -8.9 +0.4
  Dec 18, 2023 110   UC San Diego L 52-83 15%     1 - 8 -29.4 -20.3 -10.6
  Dec 28, 2023 302   @ Idaho L 58-61 34%     1 - 9 0 - 1 -8.0 -10.5 +2.1
  Dec 30, 2023 145   @ Eastern Washington L 61-87 10%     1 - 10 0 - 2 -21.6 -11.3 -10.7
  Jan 03, 2024 250   UMKC W 67-64 41%     2 - 10 -4.1 -3.8 -0.1
  Jan 06, 2024 179   @ St. Thomas L 50-63 15%     2 - 11 -11.3 -13.5 -0.3
  Jan 11, 2024 151   Weber St. W 71-69 24%     3 - 11 1 - 2 +0.2 +6.1 -5.7
  Jan 13, 2024 254   Idaho St. W 66-64 42%     4 - 11 2 - 2 -5.3 +4.9 -9.7
  Jan 18, 2024 197   @ Northern Colorado L 75-77 18%     4 - 12 2 - 3 -1.6 +9.7 -11.5
  Jan 20, 2024 303   @ Northern Arizona L 61-70 34%     4 - 13 2 - 4 -14.0 -11.5 -2.8
  Jan 25, 2024 259   Montana St. L 62-70 44%     4 - 14 2 - 5 -15.7 -6.5 -10.1
  Jan 27, 2024 160   Montana L 67-70 26%     4 - 15 2 - 6 -5.5 -0.6 -5.4
  Feb 03, 2024 252   @ Portland St. L 51-58 23%     4 - 16 2 - 7 -8.7 -6.5 -4.1
  Feb 05, 2024 302   Idaho L 45-61 54%     4 - 17 2 - 8 -26.5 -21.0 -9.9
  Feb 08, 2024 254   @ Idaho St. L 40-68 24%     4 - 18 2 - 9 -29.8 -26.3 -8.9
  Feb 10, 2024 151   @ Weber St. L 53-58 12%     4 - 19 2 - 10 -1.4 -6.7 +4.1
  Feb 15, 2024 303   Northern Arizona L 58-73 54%     4 - 20 2 - 11 -25.5 -6.9 -21.9
  Feb 17, 2024 197   Northern Colorado L 75-80 34%     4 - 21 2 - 12 -10.1 +2.6 -13.0
  Feb 22, 2024 160   @ Montana L 61-68 13%     4 - 22 2 - 13 -4.0 -1.0 -4.6
  Feb 24, 2024 259   @ Montana St. W 66-63 25%     5 - 22 3 - 13 +0.7 -7.1 +7.9
  Mar 02, 2024 252   Portland St. L 65-67 43%    
  Mar 04, 2024 145   Eastern Washington L 68-76 22%    
Projected Record 6 - 23 4 - 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 2.5 2.5 9th
10th 45.3 44.7 7.5 97.5 10th
Total 45.3 44.7 10.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13 10.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 9.9
4-14 44.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.2 44.5
3-15 45.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.2 45.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 10.0% 1.0% 16.0 1.0
Lose Out 45.3% 0.4% 16.0 0.4