Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.5#217
Expected Predictive Rating-1.3#197
Pace60.0#348
Improvement+0.4#134

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#192
First Shot-2.4#262
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#53
Layup/Dunks+1.1#125
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#300
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#146
Freethrows-2.2#329
Improvement-0.6#284

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#239
First Shot-3.5#290
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#51
Layups/Dunks-2.3#271
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#359
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#99
Freethrows+1.7#61
Improvement+1.0#40
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.4% 8.6% 6.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 56.2% 71.6% 40.6%
.500 or above in Conference 78.5% 89.4% 67.4%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.9% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four2.2% 1.7% 2.7%
First Round6.4% 7.8% 5.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Washington (Home) - 50.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 83 - 12
Quad 412 - 315 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 3   @ UCLA L 50-76 3%     0 - 1 -5.2 -9.4 +3.3
  Nov 12, 2022 263   @ UC San Diego W 65-55 51%     1 - 1 +7.3 +3.9 +5.3
  Nov 14, 2022 319   @ Denver W 73-69 63%     2 - 1 -2.0 -2.4 +0.5
  Nov 22, 2022 175   UC Davis L 71-82 41%     2 - 2 -11.1 -4.8 -5.8
  Nov 25, 2022 137   Hawaii L 61-74 34%     2 - 3 -11.1 +6.3 -20.6
  Nov 26, 2022 114   Southern Utah L 87-91 2OT 30%     2 - 4 -0.9 -0.4 +0.2
  Dec 03, 2022 94   @ Santa Clara L 65-72 16%     2 - 5 +1.0 +2.5 -2.2
  Dec 07, 2022 319   Denver W 87-85 OT 80%     3 - 5 -9.4 -0.4 -9.2
  Dec 10, 2022 169   Long Beach St. W 76-74 50%     4 - 5 -0.5 +0.4 -0.9
  Dec 17, 2022 152   @ Fresno St. W 59-53 28%     5 - 5 +9.5 -0.7 +11.1
  Dec 21, 2022 155   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 49-59 29%     5 - 6 -6.7 -7.6 -1.7
  Dec 31, 2022 246   Portland St. W 74-63 67%     6 - 6 1 - 0 +3.9 +0.4 +3.9
  Jan 05, 2023 309   @ Idaho W 85-83 OT 61%     7 - 6 2 - 0 -3.4 +1.0 -4.6
  Jan 07, 2023 164   @ Eastern Washington L 75-78 30%     7 - 7 2 - 1 +0.0 +5.1 -5.3
  Jan 12, 2023 269   Northern Colorado W 72-64 71%     8 - 7 3 - 1 -0.3 -1.8 +2.2
  Jan 14, 2023 293   Northern Arizona W 59-56 76%     9 - 7 4 - 1 -6.8 -12.0 +5.7
  Jan 19, 2023 284   @ Idaho St. L 61-65 56%     9 - 8 4 - 2 -7.9 -5.8 -2.6
  Jan 21, 2023 214   @ Weber St. L 48-50 39%     9 - 9 4 - 3 -1.5 -16.1 +14.3
  Jan 26, 2023 190   Montana W 67-48 55%     10 - 9 5 - 3 +15.2 +16.1 +6.3
  Jan 28, 2023 121   Montana St. L 65-72 41%     10 - 10 5 - 4 -7.0 +2.5 -10.5
  Feb 02, 2023 164   Eastern Washington L 69-70 50%    
  Feb 04, 2023 309   Idaho W 72-64 79%    
  Feb 09, 2023 293   @ Northern Arizona W 68-66 56%    
  Feb 11, 2023 269   @ Northern Colorado W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 16, 2023 214   Weber St. W 64-62 60%    
  Feb 18, 2023 284   Idaho St. W 68-61 74%    
  Feb 23, 2023 121   @ Montana St. L 61-69 22%    
  Feb 25, 2023 190   @ Montana L 62-66 35%    
  Feb 27, 2023 246   @ Portland St. L 69-70 46%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.5 0.3 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 7.8 12.5 6.9 1.2 0.0 29.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 9.7 14.0 5.5 0.7 0.0 31.1 4th
5th 0.5 6.0 9.5 2.6 0.1 18.6 5th
6th 0.1 2.5 5.6 1.9 0.1 10.1 6th
7th 0.5 2.5 1.1 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.1 1.5 6.0 13.9 22.3 24.4 18.7 9.7 3.0 0.4 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 40.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 6.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.4% 19.1% 19.1% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
13-5 3.0% 15.0% 15.0% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.5
12-6 9.7% 12.3% 12.3% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.1 8.5
11-7 18.7% 8.7% 8.7% 15.2 0.1 1.2 0.4 17.1
10-8 24.4% 7.4% 7.4% 15.7 0.0 0.5 1.3 22.6
9-9 22.3% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.1 1.3 20.9
8-10 13.9% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.6 13.3
7-11 6.0% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.2 5.8
6-12 1.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.5
5-13 0.1% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 15.4 0.1 0.6 2.8 4.0 92.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 19.1% 14.0 3.2 11.8 4.1
Lose Out 0.1% 3.0% 16.0 3.0