IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.0	#258
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#165

Pace	64.2	#303
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.1	#227

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.9	#283

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	6.8%	10.3%	4.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.6	14.3	14.9

.500 or above	27.5%	44.2%	18.7%
.500 or above in Conference	46.2%	58.3%	39.8%
Conference Champion	8.2%	12.9%	5.7%
Last Place in Conference	15.3%	9.8%	18.3%

First Four	1.0%	0.9%	1.1%
First Round	6.5%	10.2%	4.5%
Second Round	0.3%	0.5%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: UC Santa Barbara (Home) - 34.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 3	3 - 7	3 - 11
Quad 4	9 - 6	12 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 11, 2025	123	UC Santa Barbara	L	66-70	35%
Nov 14, 2025	218	@ UC Davis	L	65-70	34%
Nov 16, 2025	305	Presbyterian	W	69-64	68%
Nov 18, 2025	20	@ UCLA	L	56-79	2%
Nov 21, 2025	85	@ California	L	63-77	10%
Nov 29, 2025	198	@ Pacific	L	66-72	31%
Dec 02, 2025	29	@ Baylor	L	59-81	3%
Dec 20, 2025	180	@ California Baptist	L	65-71	29%
Dec 22, 2025	225	@ Cal St. Northridge	L	71-75	36%
Jan 01, 2026	290	@ Idaho St.	L	66-67	45%
Jan 03, 2026	285	@ Weber St.	L	67-69	45%
Jan 10, 2026	197	@ Portland St.	L	67-73	30%
Jan 15, 2026	264	Northern Arizona	W	71-68	64%
Jan 17, 2026	186	Northern Colorado	W	72-71	50%
Jan 22, 2026	189	@ Idaho	L	68-74	31%
Jan 24, 2026	204	@ Eastern Washington	L	67-72	32%
Jan 29, 2026	208	Montana St.	W	69-68	51%
Jan 31, 2026	193	Montana	W	70-69	52%
Feb 02, 2026	285	Weber St.	W	70-66	64%
Feb 07, 2026	197	Portland St.	W	71-70	51%
Feb 12, 2026	186	@ Northern Colorado	L	68-74	32%
Feb 14, 2026	264	@ Northern Arizona	L	68-71	43%
Feb 19, 2026	204	Eastern Washington	W	70-69	53%
Feb 21, 2026	189	Idaho	W	71-70	52%
Feb 26, 2026	193	@ Montana	L	66-72	32%
Feb 28, 2026	208	@ Montana St.	L	66-71	33%
Mar 02, 2026	290	Idaho St.	W	69-64	66%
Projected Record						11 - 16	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Sky Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.8	2.2	2.2	1.6	1.0	0.4			8.2	1st
2nd											0.3	1.8	3.0	2.2	1.2	0.3	0.0				8.8	2nd
3rd										0.3	2.1	3.4	1.9	0.6	0.0						8.4	3rd
4th									0.1	2.7	4.9	2.5	0.3								10.5	4th
5th								0.3	2.6	4.5	2.2	0.2	0.0								9.8	5th
6th							0.3	2.4	5.0	2.7	0.4										10.9	6th
7th						0.6	2.1	5.0	2.9	0.3											10.9	7th
8th				0.1	0.6	2.7	4.3	2.9	0.5												11.1	8th
9th			0.3	1.0	3.3	3.6	2.4	0.6													11.2	9th
10th	0.3	1.2	2.1	2.4	2.6	1.2	0.3														10.1	10th

Total	0.3	1.2	2.4	3.5	6.5	8.1	9.5	11.2	11.1	10.6	9.9	7.9	6.1	5.0	3.4	1.8	1.1	0.4				Total

Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1	100.0%	0.4		0.3	0.0
16-2	96.4%	1.0		1.0	0.1
15-3	85.4%	1.6		1.3	0.2
14-4	63.4%	2.2		1.3	0.8	0.0
13-5	43.6%	2.2		0.9	0.9	0.3	0.1
12-6	13.8%	0.8		0.2	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.5%	0.0					0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	8.2%	8.2		5.0	2.5	0.4	0.3	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1	0.4%		50.0%	50.0%		12.8													0.1	0.1	0.0			0.2
16-2	1.1%		43.0%	43.0%		13.3													0.1	0.2	0.2			0.6
15-3	1.8%		29.2%	29.2%		13.4													0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0		1.3
14-4	3.4%		27.9%	27.9%		14.3													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5		2.5
13-5	5.0%		16.5%	16.5%		14.5														0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	4.2
12-6	6.1%		19.5%	19.5%		14.4														0.3	0.3	0.3	0.2	4.9
11-7	7.9%		11.9%	11.9%		15.0														0.0	0.2	0.4	0.3	7.0
10-8	9.9%		7.7%	7.7%		15.4														0.0		0.3	0.4	9.2
9-9	10.6%		4.0%	4.0%		15.7																0.1	0.3	10.1
8-10	11.1%		2.1%	2.1%		15.8																0.0	0.2	10.9
7-11	11.2%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.1	11.1
6-12	9.5%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	9.4
5-13	8.1%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	8.1
4-14	6.5%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	6.5
3-15	3.5%																							3.5
2-16	2.4%																							2.4
1-17	1.2%																							1.2
0-18	0.3%																							0.3

Total	100%		6.8%	6.8%	0.0%	14.6													0.3	1.1	1.6	2.0	1.8	93.2		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%