Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.3#295
Expected Predictive Rating-1.2#202
Pace70.9#133
Improvement+1.1#81

Offense
Total Offense-4.9#303
First Shot-4.5#301
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#208
Layup/Dunks-1.7#231
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#86
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#315
Freethrows+0.6#142
Improvement+0.1#161

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#257
First Shot-1.3#222
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#253
Layups/Dunks-6.0#338
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#109
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.3#13
Freethrows-2.8#320
Improvement+1.0#79
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.7% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 14.7% 24.9% 7.3%
.500 or above in Conference 27.3% 41.4% 17.0%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.4% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 9.5% 4.8% 12.9%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
First Round1.0% 1.4% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana (Home) - 42.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 62 - 11
Quad 49 - 711 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 57   @ Utah L 56-89 5%     0 - 1 -22.0 -13.9 -6.6
  Nov 15, 2021 316   @ Cal Poly W 58-57 44%     1 - 1 -4.8 -7.0 +2.3
  Nov 20, 2021 193   UC San Diego L 56-71 39%     1 - 2 -19.4 -18.1 -1.2
  Nov 23, 2021 212   UC Davis W 75-63 31%     2 - 2 +9.9 -4.9 +13.6
  Nov 27, 2021 4   @ Arizona L 59-105 1%     2 - 3 -25.1 -10.7 -8.3
  Dec 02, 2021 207   Montana L 67-69 42%    
  Dec 04, 2021 181   Montana St. L 70-73 39%    
  Dec 11, 2021 127   @ Oregon St. L 60-73 12%    
  Dec 19, 2021 139   @ UC Riverside L 59-71 13%    
  Dec 30, 2021 140   @ Southern Utah L 67-79 14%    
  Jan 08, 2022 175   @ Northern Colorado L 67-77 19%    
  Jan 10, 2022 317   @ Northern Arizona L 70-71 45%    
  Jan 15, 2022 269   Portland St. W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 20, 2022 203   @ Eastern Washington L 71-79 23%    
  Jan 22, 2022 351   @ Idaho W 76-71 67%    
  Jan 27, 2022 311   Idaho St. W 67-63 64%    
  Jan 29, 2022 97   Weber St. L 67-77 20%    
  Feb 03, 2022 317   Northern Arizona W 73-68 66%    
  Feb 05, 2022 269   @ Portland St. L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 10, 2022 175   Northern Colorado L 70-74 39%    
  Feb 12, 2022 140   Southern Utah L 70-76 30%    
  Feb 17, 2022 97   @ Weber St. L 64-80 9%    
  Feb 19, 2022 311   @ Idaho St. L 64-66 43%    
  Feb 24, 2022 351   Idaho W 79-68 83%    
  Feb 26, 2022 203   Eastern Washington L 74-76 41%    
  Mar 03, 2022 181   @ Montana St. L 67-76 20%    
  Mar 05, 2022 207   @ Montana L 64-72 24%    
Projected Record 10 - 17 8 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.9 1.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.2 1.0 0.2 5.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.6 3.5 1.1 0.3 8.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 4.4 4.7 1.4 0.1 12.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.4 5.9 1.4 0.1 15.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.4 6.5 4.8 1.4 0.1 16.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 4.5 5.9 3.7 0.9 0.1 16.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 1.8 4.0 4.6 1.8 0.5 13.3 10th
11th 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 5.4 11th
Total 0.2 0.6 1.9 3.7 6.6 10.1 11.6 13.1 12.4 12.6 9.4 7.0 4.5 3.7 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 83.7% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-4 58.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1
15-5 18.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.3% 8.5% 8.5% 14.0 0.0 0.2
16-4 0.3% 6.3% 6.3% 14.0 0.0 0.3
15-5 0.8% 16.2% 16.2% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.7
14-6 1.4% 6.0% 6.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
13-7 3.7% 4.2% 4.2% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.5
12-8 4.5% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.4
11-9 7.0% 3.1% 3.1% 15.9 0.0 0.2 6.8
10-10 9.4% 2.3% 2.3% 15.8 0.0 0.2 9.1
9-11 12.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 12.5
8-12 12.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 12.4
7-13 13.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.1
6-14 11.6% 11.6
5-15 10.1% 10.1
4-16 6.6% 6.6
3-17 3.7% 3.7
2-18 1.9% 1.9
1-19 0.6% 0.6
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 15.5 0.1 0.3 0.8 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%