Idaho St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.3#311
Expected Predictive Rating-14.8#337
Pace62.2#331
Improvement+0.0#167

Offense
Total Offense-5.3#314
First Shot-8.6#352
After Offensive Rebound+3.3#29
Layup/Dunks-7.5#350
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#323
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#85
Freethrows-1.2#250
Improvement+0.0#177

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#272
First Shot-4.9#313
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#62
Layups/Dunks-4.4#311
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#346
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#104
Freethrows+1.8#82
Improvement+0.0#176
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.1% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 2.9% 4.8% 0.8%
.500 or above in Conference 19.7% 29.4% 9.2%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 12.7% 7.0% 18.8%
First Four0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
First Round0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland St. (Home) - 52.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 91 - 13
Quad 46 - 88 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 235   @ Pepperdine L 60-65 24%     0 - 1 -5.7 -13.2 +7.6
  Nov 14, 2021 173   @ Seattle L 51-77 16%     0 - 2 -23.5 -18.8 -6.0
  Nov 19, 2021 107   @ Nebraska L 60-78 8%     0 - 3 -10.8 -2.7 -9.9
  Nov 22, 2021 215   UMKC L 58-74 38%     0 - 4 -21.3 -8.5 -15.3
  Nov 27, 2021 256   @ Air Force L 48-59 29%     0 - 5 -13.4 -17.5 +2.5
  Dec 02, 2021 269   Portland St. W 66-65 52%    
  Dec 04, 2021 317   Northern Arizona W 68-64 63%    
  Dec 08, 2021 122   @ California L 54-68 9%    
  Dec 22, 2021 118   @ UC Santa Barbara L 57-71 9%    
  Dec 30, 2021 207   @ Montana L 60-69 20%    
  Jan 01, 2022 181   @ Montana St. L 62-72 17%    
  Jan 08, 2022 97   Weber St. L 62-73 18%    
  Jan 13, 2022 203   Eastern Washington L 68-71 37%    
  Jan 15, 2022 351   Idaho W 73-63 81%    
  Jan 20, 2022 97   @ Weber St. L 59-76 7%    
  Jan 22, 2022 140   @ Southern Utah L 61-74 11%    
  Jan 27, 2022 295   @ Sacramento St. L 63-67 36%    
  Jan 29, 2022 175   @ Northern Colorado L 62-73 16%    
  Feb 03, 2022 181   Montana St. L 65-69 34%    
  Feb 05, 2022 207   Montana L 63-66 39%    
  Feb 10, 2022 351   @ Idaho W 70-66 63%    
  Feb 12, 2022 203   @ Eastern Washington L 65-74 20%    
  Feb 17, 2022 175   Northern Colorado L 65-70 35%    
  Feb 19, 2022 295   Sacramento St. W 66-64 57%    
  Feb 24, 2022 317   @ Northern Arizona L 65-67 42%    
  Feb 26, 2022 269   @ Portland St. L 63-68 33%    
  Mar 03, 2022 140   Southern Utah L 64-71 26%    
Projected Record 7 - 20 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 2.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.7 0.7 0.1 4.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 2.5 2.2 0.8 0.1 6.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 3.2 3.4 1.1 0.1 9.5 6th
7th 0.3 2.2 5.5 4.6 1.5 0.0 14.1 7th
8th 0.9 3.5 6.5 4.8 1.2 0.1 17.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 5.1 7.0 3.9 1.0 0.1 18.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 3.4 5.6 5.2 2.7 0.8 0.1 18.5 10th
11th 0.2 1.0 2.1 2.4 1.4 0.4 0.1 7.7 11th
Total 0.2 1.0 3.0 5.9 8.7 11.7 13.5 13.5 13.0 9.8 7.9 4.8 3.5 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 64.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-5 29.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 2.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.1% 0.1
15-5 0.4% 9.5% 9.5% 15.0 0.0 0.4
14-6 1.0% 12.1% 12.1% 15.5 0.1 0.1 0.9
13-7 1.8% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.1 1.7
12-8 3.5% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.2 3.4
11-9 4.8% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 4.7
10-10 7.9% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 7.8
9-11 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.8
8-12 13.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.9
7-13 13.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.4
6-14 13.5% 13.5
5-15 11.7% 11.7
4-16 8.7% 8.7
3-17 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.9
2-18 3.0% 3.0
1-19 1.0% 1.0
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 15.9 0.1 0.7 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%