Idaho St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.6#284
Expected Predictive Rating-8.7#309
Pace64.5#282
Improvement+0.1#177

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#268
First Shot-0.2#190
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#344
Layup/Dunks-4.5#337
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#87
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#73
Freethrows-0.3#196
Improvement+1.1#33

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#290
First Shot-3.9#301
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#161
Layups/Dunks-4.5#337
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#224
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#49
Freethrows-2.8#339
Improvement-1.0#319
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.2% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 48.8% 66.6% 34.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.2% 2.2%
First Four1.1% 1.2% 1.0%
First Round0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Weber St. (Home) - 44.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 32 - 62 - 11
Quad 47 - 910 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 80   @ BYU L 56-60 8%     0 - 1 +5.3 -14.3 +20.0
  Nov 14, 2022 49   @ Utah L 58-70 5%     0 - 2 +0.6 -4.4 +4.5
  Nov 18, 2022 319   Denver L 69-70 68%     0 - 3 -12.4 -6.6 -5.8
  Nov 23, 2022 353   @ Lindenwood L 76-77 OT 65%     0 - 4 -11.5 -7.1 -4.3
  Nov 26, 2022 355   Bethune-Cookman L 66-68 OT 78%     0 - 5 -16.5 -13.4 -3.2
  Nov 27, 2022 338   @ Central Arkansas L 77-81 57%     0 - 6 -12.3 -2.4 -9.8
  Nov 29, 2022 259   @ UMKC W 75-65 34%     1 - 6 +7.6 +11.4 -2.7
  Dec 03, 2022 114   Southern Utah L 59-69 25%     1 - 7 -9.6 -14.7 +5.1
  Dec 10, 2022 265   St. Thomas L 70-76 56%     1 - 8 -14.2 -4.6 -10.0
  Dec 17, 2022 104   @ Washington L 55-90 11%     1 - 9 -27.9 -15.7 -10.6
  Dec 20, 2022 118   @ Grand Canyon L 66-68 13%     1 - 10 +3.5 +0.9 +2.4
  Dec 29, 2022 293   Northern Arizona W 79-53 62%     2 - 10 1 - 0 +16.2 +5.6 +12.6
  Dec 31, 2022 269   Northern Colorado W 90-83 OT 56%     3 - 10 2 - 0 -1.3 -2.3 +0.1
  Jan 07, 2023 214   @ Weber St. W 67-57 25%     4 - 10 3 - 0 +10.5 +0.3 +10.7
  Jan 12, 2023 121   @ Montana St. L 68-81 13%     4 - 11 3 - 1 -7.7 +2.0 -10.2
  Jan 14, 2023 190   @ Montana L 55-84 22%     4 - 12 3 - 2 -27.5 -14.0 -16.0
  Jan 19, 2023 217   Sacramento St. W 65-61 44%     5 - 12 4 - 2 -1.2 -2.2 +1.6
  Jan 21, 2023 246   Portland St. L 65-72 52%     5 - 13 4 - 3 -14.1 -2.3 -12.8
  Jan 26, 2023 164   @ Eastern Washington L 68-81 18%     5 - 14 4 - 4 -10.0 -2.0 -8.6
  Jan 28, 2023 309   @ Idaho W 95-91 OT 45%     6 - 14 5 - 4 -1.4 +11.4 -13.0
  Feb 04, 2023 214   Weber St. L 64-66 45%    
  Feb 06, 2023 293   @ Northern Arizona L 68-70 41%    
  Feb 09, 2023 190   Montana L 65-68 41%    
  Feb 11, 2023 121   Montana St. L 64-71 29%    
  Feb 16, 2023 246   @ Portland St. L 70-75 32%    
  Feb 18, 2023 217   @ Sacramento St. L 61-68 26%    
  Feb 23, 2023 309   Idaho W 73-69 67%    
  Feb 25, 2023 164   Eastern Washington L 70-74 36%    
  Feb 27, 2023 269   @ Northern Colorado L 71-75 36%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.3 4.9 1.6 0.2 0.0 11.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 7.6 8.3 2.2 0.2 19.4 4th
5th 0.8 8.9 11.1 2.9 0.1 23.7 5th
6th 0.6 7.4 11.7 3.2 0.1 23.0 6th
7th 0.1 3.5 8.0 2.3 0.1 14.0 7th
8th 0.5 3.2 1.4 0.0 5.2 8th
9th 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 1.6 7.9 17.6 24.1 22.8 15.6 7.5 2.5 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 38.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 9.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 0.1
13-5 0.5% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5
12-6 2.5% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.1 2.4
11-7 7.5% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.2 7.3
10-8 15.6% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.3 15.3
9-9 22.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.3 22.5
8-10 24.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 23.9
7-11 17.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 17.6
6-12 7.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.8
5-13 1.6% 1.6
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 16.0 1.1 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1%
Lose Out 1.6%