Montana
Big Sky
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.7#202
Expected Predictive Rating-4.2#236
Pace73.0#94
Improvement-2.8#341

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#162
First Shot+3.1#91
After Offensive Rebound-2.9#339
Layup/Dunks-0.3#183
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#203
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#97
Freethrows+0.9#126
Improvement-1.2#287

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#269
First Shot-2.8#274
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#197
Layups/Dunks-7.7#360
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#273
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#22
Freethrows+0.2#165
Improvement-1.6#305
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.3% 14.9% 8.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 13.9 14.8
.500 or above 32.8% 61.5% 32.4%
.500 or above in Conference 54.9% 70.3% 54.7%
Conference Champion 9.3% 18.3% 9.2%
Last Place in Conference 10.6% 4.8% 10.7%
First Four1.5% 1.1% 1.5%
First Round7.8% 14.1% 7.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.8% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisville (Away) - 1.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 74 - 11
Quad 49 - 513 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 90 @Stanford L 68-91 14%     0 - 1 -14.2 -4.1 -8.7
  Tue, Nov 11 124 @UNLV W 102-93 21%     1 - 1 +14.6 +17.0 -3.6
  Fri, Nov 14 249 Cal Poly W 90-82 70%     2 - 1 -0.1 +0.8 -2.0
  Tue, Nov 18 44 @Texas A&M L 81-86 7%     2 - 2 +9.2 +14.4 -5.2
  Sun, Nov 23 220 Lamar L 63-68 64%     2 - 3 -11.5 -11.5 +0.1
  Tue, Nov 25 144 Oakland L 87-95 47%     2 - 4 -10.0 +0.0 -9.2
  Wed, Dec 3 151 North Dakota St. L 72-81 50%     2 - 5 -11.7 -0.3 -11.4
  Sat, Dec 6 337 @North Dakota W 79-75 69%     3 - 5 -3.8 +4.9 -8.6
  Sat, Dec 20 14 @Louisville L 71-95 1%    
  Thu, Jan 1 258 Northern Arizona W 78-72 70%    
  Sat, Jan 3 161 Northern Colorado W 79-78 52%    
  Thu, Jan 8 177 @Idaho L 75-80 34%    
  Sat, Jan 10 240 @Eastern Washington L 82-83 45%    
  Sat, Jan 17 165 @Montana St. L 72-77 32%    
  Mon, Jan 19 258 @Northern Arizona L 74-75 48%    
  Thu, Jan 22 213 Weber St. W 81-77 63%    
  Sat, Jan 24 160 Idaho St. W 74-73 52%    
  Thu, Jan 29 176 @Portland St. L 72-77 34%    
  Sat, Jan 31 275 @Sacramento St. W 81-80 51%    
  Thu, Feb 5 240 Eastern Washington W 85-80 67%    
  Sat, Feb 7 177 Idaho W 78-77 55%    
  Sat, Feb 14 165 Montana St. W 75-74 52%    
  Thu, Feb 19 160 @Idaho St. L 71-76 31%    
  Sat, Feb 21 213 @Weber St. L 78-80 42%    
  Thu, Feb 26 275 Sacramento St. W 83-77 71%    
  Sat, Feb 28 176 Portland St. W 75-74 56%    
  Mon, Mar 2 161 @Northern Colorado L 76-81 32%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.8 2.3 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 9.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.0 4.0 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 10.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.5 5.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 11.1 3rd
4th 0.2 3.0 5.5 2.1 0.2 11.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 2.6 6.1 2.6 0.3 0.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.7 5.8 3.4 0.3 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.4 5.0 3.7 0.4 0.0 10.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.8 3.6 0.6 9.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.2 2.8 0.7 0.0 8.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.0 1.5 0.4 0.0 6.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.6 6.2 8.5 11.2 13.0 13.3 12.5 10.7 7.8 5.5 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 99.4% 0.6    0.5 0.0
15-3 91.3% 1.4    1.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 80.0% 2.3    1.6 0.6 0.0 0.0
13-5 51.3% 2.8    1.3 1.2 0.3 0.0
12-6 22.0% 1.7    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 3.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.3% 9.3 5.3 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 44.8% 44.8% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.6% 36.9% 36.9% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-3 1.5% 30.0% 30.0% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0
14-4 2.9% 25.1% 25.1% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 2.1
13-5 5.5% 20.4% 20.4% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 4.3
12-6 7.8% 17.1% 17.1% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 6.4
11-7 10.7% 12.2% 12.2% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.2 9.4
10-8 12.5% 9.0% 9.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.3 11.4
9-9 13.3% 6.8% 6.8% 15.8 0.2 0.8 12.4
8-10 13.0% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.0 0.6 12.4
7-11 11.2% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.3 11.0
6-12 8.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 8.4
5-13 6.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 6.1
4-14 3.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.6
3-15 1.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.7
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.2% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.3% 8.3% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 3.1 2.4 91.7 0.0%