Montana
Big Sky
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.0#207
Expected Predictive Rating-2.9#225
Pace64.5#297
Improvement+1.2#80

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#182
First Shot+3.5#79
After Offensive Rebound-3.8#348
Layup/Dunks-3.0#278
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#200
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#114
Freethrows+5.2#1
Improvement+0.2#154

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#235
First Shot-0.9#203
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#237
Layups/Dunks+4.7#36
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#261
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#326
Freethrows+0.1#180
Improvement+1.0#81
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.3% 8.8% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.3
.500 or above 67.2% 77.3% 53.4%
.500 or above in Conference 72.6% 82.2% 59.4%
Conference Champion 6.3% 8.4% 3.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.3% 1.9%
First Four1.1% 1.3% 0.9%
First Round6.8% 8.3% 4.7%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacramento St. (Away) - 58.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 43 - 9
Quad 413 - 516 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 38   @ Mississippi St. L 49-86 8%     0 - 1 -23.3 -14.5 -10.3
  Nov 15, 2021 330   @ North Dakota L 77-79 72%     0 - 2 -9.9 +2.2 -12.2
  Nov 20, 2021 335   Nebraska Omaha W 68-47 88%     1 - 2 +5.9 -5.8 +13.7
  Nov 24, 2021 193   UC San Diego W 71-61 59%     2 - 2 +5.6 +1.7 +4.6
  Nov 26, 2021 247   Southern Miss W 74-62 71%     3 - 2 +4.4 +4.9 +0.2
  Nov 29, 2021 44   @ Oregon L 47-87 9%     3 - 3 -26.9 -17.9 -10.8
  Dec 02, 2021 295   @ Sacramento St. W 69-67 58%    
  Dec 04, 2021 175   @ Northern Colorado L 69-73 34%    
  Dec 08, 2021 256   Air Force W 65-59 73%    
  Dec 19, 2021 82   @ Santa Clara L 66-78 14%    
  Dec 30, 2021 311   Idaho St. W 69-60 80%    
  Jan 01, 2022 97   Weber St. L 68-72 35%    
  Jan 06, 2022 203   @ Eastern Washington L 71-74 38%    
  Jan 08, 2022 181   @ Montana St. L 68-72 35%    
  Jan 13, 2022 140   Southern Utah L 71-72 46%    
  Jan 20, 2022 269   @ Portland St. W 69-68 53%    
  Jan 22, 2022 317   @ Northern Arizona W 71-67 63%    
  Jan 27, 2022 351   Idaho W 80-64 92%    
  Jan 29, 2022 203   Eastern Washington W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 03, 2022 97   @ Weber St. L 65-75 19%    
  Feb 05, 2022 311   @ Idaho St. W 66-63 61%    
  Feb 10, 2022 317   Northern Arizona W 74-64 81%    
  Feb 12, 2022 269   Portland St. W 72-65 73%    
  Feb 17, 2022 351   @ Idaho W 77-67 80%    
  Feb 24, 2022 140   @ Southern Utah L 68-75 28%    
  Feb 27, 2022 181   Montana St. W 71-69 56%    
  Mar 03, 2022 175   Northern Colorado W 72-70 56%    
  Mar 05, 2022 295   Sacramento St. W 72-64 76%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.0 1.5 0.7 0.4 6.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.0 3.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 12.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.4 5.2 3.8 1.2 0.2 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.6 6.1 4.1 0.8 0.1 15.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 4.4 6.4 3.6 0.6 0.0 16.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 4.2 5.4 2.4 0.4 13.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 3.1 3.8 1.7 0.3 9.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 2.2 2.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.8 1.4 0.5 0.0 4.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 3.2 4.7 7.1 9.9 12.5 13.2 12.8 11.6 9.1 6.4 4.0 1.8 0.7 0.4 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
18-2 99.7% 0.7    0.6 0.0
17-3 79.8% 1.5    1.0 0.4 0.0
16-4 48.9% 2.0    1.1 0.7 0.2
15-5 19.6% 1.3    0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.3% 6.3 3.6 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.4% 47.0% 47.0% 12.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
18-2 0.7% 24.1% 24.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
17-3 1.8% 23.9% 23.9% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.4
16-4 4.0% 21.9% 21.9% 14.4 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 3.2
15-5 6.4% 18.4% 18.4% 14.8 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 5.2
14-6 9.1% 10.9% 10.9% 15.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 8.1
13-7 11.6% 11.0% 11.0% 15.5 0.1 0.5 0.7 10.3
12-8 12.8% 7.5% 7.5% 15.7 0.3 0.7 11.9
11-9 13.2% 4.0% 4.0% 15.8 0.1 0.4 12.7
10-10 12.5% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.3 12.2
9-11 9.9% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 9.7
8-12 7.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 7.1
7-13 4.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 4.6
6-14 3.2% 3.2
5-15 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 1.3
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 15.1 0.1 0.3 1.4 2.7 2.8 92.7 0.0%