Montana
Big Sky
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -2.0 199
Results Rating -1.0 178
Consistency 0.15 182
Pace 72.7 67
Improvement -2.2 269

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 226 B- D- F+ C+ C
Defense C 169 C+ C D C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 228 C+ 60% 112 +0.0 182
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% 224 C+ 40% 104 -0.4 205
Three Pointers 45% 102 B 37% 50 +4.1 56
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.2 176 B +3.3 79
1st FG Attempt B- 1.09 80
Second Chance F 21.4% 356 C+ 1.07 119 D- 0.23 344
Opponents' Steals F+ 11.8% 350
Other Turnovers D 8.4% 315
Turnovers F+ 20.2% 348
Freethrows C- 0.30 214 B 76% 47 C+ 0.23 157
Total Offense C- -2.2 226

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 160 C 11.3% 200
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 17% 300 D- 7.8% 328
Three Pointers B- 88% 96 B+ 0.2% 31
Total C+ 58% 128 C 5.7% 206


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 156 C- 60% 228 +1.3 221
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 97 C- 39% 231 +1.1 273
Three Pointers 38% 277 B+ 30% 30 -3.8 34
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.2 122 C+ -1.1 134
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.99 127
Second Chance C 30.0% 171 C+ 1.02 153 C 0.30 163
Turnovers from Steals D 7.6% 313
Other Turnovers C- 7.0% 209
Turnovers D 14.6% 307
Freethrows C 0.30 167 C+ 72% 142 C+ 0.21 161
Total Defense C +0.2 169

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 51% 236 D- 6.3% 344
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 152 D+ 3.6% 261
Three Pointers B- 80% 67 D+ 0.4% 285
Total C+ 53% 125 D- 3.5% 336

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.1 144 16.5 35
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 274 0.19 268
Consistency 0.14 304 0.09 9
Improvement -3.0 310 +0.8 149

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 199 197 195
Results Rating Rank 177 175 174
Conference Record 10 - 8 10 - 8 10 - 8
Conference Finish 4 4 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% n/a n/a
First Round0% n/a n/a
Second Round0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0% n/a n/a
Final Four0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0% n/a n/a
National Champion0% n/a n/a

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 11 - 4
Quad 37 - 78 - 11
Quad 47 - 415 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 60 @Stanford L 68 - 91 9% -11  0% 0 - 1 D -10 D -6 C- C+ F C- -3 B- B F
 Tue, Nov 11 105 @UNLV W 102 - 93 18% +6  82% 1 - 1 A- +17 A+ +15 A+ B- B- C+ +1 C- A F+
 Fri, Nov 14 220 Cal Poly W 90 - 82 66% +7  95% 2 - 1 C+ +2 C- -2 D- C C+ B- +3 B- C D
 Tue, Nov 18 34 @Texas A&M L 81 - 86 5% -10  1% 2 - 2 B+ +12 A +13 A+ F+ C- C -1 F A+ C
 Sun, Nov 23 238 Lamar L 63 - 68 71% -0  37% 2 - 3 D- -13 F -16 F F F B +4 A+ F C+
 Tue, Nov 25 174 Oakland L 87 - 95 57% -4  16% 2 - 4 D- -12 D+ -3 C+ B+ F+ F+ -8 F A D+
 Wed, Dec 3 125 North Dakota St. L 72 - 81 44% -3  17% 2 - 5 D -10 D+ -3 B- D D+ D -6 A- F D+
 Sat, Dec 6 281 @North Dakota W 79 - 75 58% -1  40% 3 - 5 C -0 C +1 B- B+ F C -1 B F C-
 Sat, Dec 20 17 @Louisville L 54 - 94 3% -17  0% 3 - 6 F -19 F -16 F+ F F C -1 B F B+
 Thu, Jan 1 317 Northern Arizona W 78 - 64 84% +4  70% 4 - 6 1 - 0 C +1 C- -1 A- F F+ B- +3 B F+ B+
 Sat, Jan 3 156 Northern Colorado W 88 - 79 53% +9  99% 5 - 6 2 - 0 B- +6 C+ +3 B- F D B- +3 A+ D- F+
 Thu, Jan 8 159 @Idaho W 79 - 73 31% +9  89% 6 - 6 3 - 0 B +9 B +6 B+ D- F+ B- +3 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 178 @Eastern Washington L 65 - 66 35% +2  68% 6 - 7 3 - 1 C +1 D -5 D F+ D- B+ +6 C+ A- F+
 Sat, Jan 17 140 @Montana St. L 67 - 76 28% -0  48% 6 - 8 3 - 2 D+ -5 D- -7 C+ F F B- +3 B C+ D+
 Mon, Jan 19 317 @Northern Arizona W 98 - 72 68% +12  85% 7 - 8 4 - 2 A +19 A+ +30 A+ A+ A D- -7 F A F
 Thu, Jan 22 210 Weber St. W 81 - 65 64% +2  46% 8 - 8 5 - 2 B +10 B +7 A+ B+ F B +5 D- A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 265 Idaho St. W 69 - 60 74% +8  97% 9 - 8 6 - 2 C +0 F -10 C F D A +11 A+ C- B
 Thu, Jan 29 158 @Portland St. W 64 - 60 31% +5  89% 10 - 8 7 - 2 B- +7 D+ -4 B+ F F A+ +11 A+ D+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 275 @Sacramento St. L 79 - 86 56% -8  9% 10 - 9 7 - 3 D -11 C- -1 D+ A+ F F+ -9 F A+ D+
 Thu, Feb 5 178 Eastern Washington L 74 - 82 58% +0  53% 10 - 10 7 - 4 D- -12 D- -7 B F F D -5 D- B+ C
 Sat, Feb 7 159 Idaho W 73 - 68 53% -2  39% 11 - 10 8 - 4 C+ +2 D -5 A- D+ F A- +7 B- A+ C+
 Sat, Feb 14 140 Montana St. L 71 - 82 50% -3  30% 11 - 11 8 - 5 D- -13 C- -1 B- F C+ F -12 F+ A+ F
 Thu, Feb 19 265 @Idaho St. L 69 - 73 53% +2  59% 11 - 12 8 - 6 D+ -7 D- -8 C+ F F C+ +1 D- A+ C+
 Sat, Feb 21 210 @Weber St. L 72 - 92 41% -14  0% 11 - 13 8 - 7 F -20 D+ -3 C- F C+ F -17 F F C
 Thu, Feb 26 275 Sacramento St. W 81 - 73 76% +8  96% 12 - 13 9 - 7 C -2 D+ -2 B+ F D+ C+ +1 B+ C- F+
 Sat, Feb 28 158 Portland St. W 74 - 68 53% +7  89% 13 - 13 10 - 7 C+ +3 C -0 A- B D+ B- +3 B+ D+ C+
 Mon, Mar 2 156 @Northern Colorado L 57 - 85 30% -10  7% 13 - 14 10 - 8 F -25 F -21 D- F F C- -3 D A F
 Mon, Mar 9 156 Northern Colorado W 95 - 89 41% +8  93% 14 - 14 B- +6 A +13 B+ A+ C D- -7 B- C F
 Tue, Mar 10 158 Portland St. W 75 - 72 41% +11  92% 15 - 14 C+ +3 C +0 A+ F F B- +3 A+ D+ F
 Wed, Mar 11 159 Idaho L 66 - 77 41% -4  23% 15 - 15 D -11 F -11 D+ F F C +0 A D- F
Totals 15 - 15 10 - 8 -2 C- -2 B- B C C +0 B B C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C+ C+ B B 37% 34% 45% C B- F C+ D- F+ C- B C+ C C- C- B+ C+ 39% 23% 38% C+ C+ C C+ C D C C+ C+
1.06 60% 40% 37% +3 0 1.09 21% 1.1 .23 20% .30 76% .23 1.08 60% 39% 30% -1 0 0.99 30% 1.0 .30 15% .30 72% .21
Nov
8		 Stanford D D A+ F D+ 43% 17% 40% B C- F A+ C+ F D+ A+ B+ C- B F C B 52% 12% 35% C- B- C+ B+ B F A+ A+ A+
0.91 50% 50% 26% -6 +1 0.91 18% 1.8 .32 27% .31 94% .29 1.22 53% 50% 35% -1 +2 1.05 34% 0.9 .30 7% .22 60% .13
Nov
11		 UNLV A+ B A+ A A+ 55% 18% 27% B+ A+ B C B- B- B A+ A+ C+ F F A+ C 48% 13% 39% F+ C- B A A F+ D+ A- C
1.26 63% 60% 40% +9 +1 1.24 33% 1.1 .37 16% .40 89% .35 1.15 70% 63% 25% +4 +2 1.13 28% 0.7 .21 12% .38 63% .24
Nov
14		 Cal Poly C- B F F D- 36% 14% 50% C+ D- F A+ C C+ A+ A- A+ B- B A+ C B+ 59% 10% 31% D- B- C+ C C D C- A C+
1.11 67% 25% 28% -3 +1 0.97 23% 1.4 .33 15% .42 79% .33 1.01 53% 17% 33% -6 +3 0.97 29% 1.0 .29 17% .31 71% .22
Nov
18		 Texas A&M A B- A+ A+ A+ 30% 12% 58% B A+ F A+ F+ C- D- F F C F F B- F 43% 14% 43% B F A+ A+ A+ C F B- F
1.16 60% 67% 52% +19 +1 1.42 12% 1.3 .15 20% .23 54% .13 1.23 81% 71% 33% +14 +1 1.33 23% 0.0 .00 14% .48 72% .35
Nov
23		 Lamar F D- F D- F 38% 18% 44% C+ F D F F F A+ D- A+ B A+ B F A 33% 50% 17% A+ A+ D+ F F C+ A A+ A+
0.87 53% 13% 30% -9 0 0.84 27% 0.5 .12 22% .57 66% .37 0.94 26% 34% 40% -11 -4 0.72 36% 1.3 .47 18% .13 50% .07
Nov
25		 Oakland D+ D+ C+ A C+ 47% 16% 36% B+ C+ D+ A+ B+ F+ A+ F B F+ F A+ F F 49% 25% 26% C F D- A+ A D+ F C F
1.12 58% 44% 40% +4 +1 1.13 31% 1.4 .42 19% .35 59% .21 1.22 77% 23% 43% +9 0 1.21 35% 0.6 .22 13% .46 74% .34
Dec
3		 North Dakota St. D+ C+ A+ B- B+ 22% 35% 43% F B- D+ F+ D D+ D+ F F+ D C- F A+ B+ 28% 34% 38% A A- D- F F D+ F F F
1.03 64% 56% 36% +9 -3 1.14 26% 0.8 .19 20% .23 62% .14 1.16 60% 56% 15% -4 -2 0.89 36% 1.5 .53 14% .37 91% .33
Dec
6		 North Dakota C D C A+ B 40% 11% 49% C B- C- A+ B+ F A F B- C F+ B+ A+ B 42% 25% 33% A- B F F+ F C- B- F C
1.15 56% 40% 45% +8 +1 1.20 33% 1.4 .48 25% .46 63% .29 1.09 64% 31% 18% -7 0 0.87 40% 1.2 .48 14% .31 78% .24
Dec
20		 Louisville F C- F F F 27% 27% 47% C F+ F F F F C A+ B C F A+ A+ B+ 42% 5% 53% D+ B D- F F B+ C B C+
0.72 54% 15% 26% -13 -2 0.73 11% 0.8 .08 25% .27 87% .23 1.26 83% 0% 28% +3 +2 1.13 40% 1.5 .60 19% .31 74% .23
Jan
1		 Northern Arizona C- A+ F A+ A- 39% 14% 47% C A- F D- F F+ D+ A+ B- B- B+ C- C+ B 34% 28% 38% B B F+ D+ F+ B+ D+ F+ D
1.19 74% 29% 43% +11 +1 1.27 20% 1.0 .20 20% .27 86% .23 0.98 50% 38% 33% -3 -1 0.94 29% 1.1 .32 20% .29 73% .21
Jan
3		 Northern Colorado C+ A+ F D+ B 35% 20% 45% D+ B- F D- F D A+ A+ A+ B- C+ A+ A A+ 23% 30% 48% A+ A+ D D D- F+ F C- F
1.15 72% 30% 30% +1 0 1.04 16% 1.0 .16 14% .58 92% .53 1.03 57% 28% 28% -8 -2 0.82 30% 1.1 .35 13% .32 76% .24
Jan
8		 Idaho B B A+ D+ A- 33% 22% 45% C B+ F A D- F+ B A+ A+ B- A- B- A+ A+ 52% 12% 36% F A+ F C- F F F A- F
1.13 63% 64% 32% +6 -1 1.12 14% 1.3 .18 19% .39 86% .33 1.04 46% 33% 17% -16 +2 0.74 38% 1.1 .40 11% .47 66% .31
Jan
10		 Eastern Washington D B F F D- 61% 15% 24% A- D C- F F+ D- B- A B+ B+ A F D- C+ 42% 23% 35% C C+ A+ F A- F+ A+ F A+
1.02 64% 29% 18% -3 +2 1.00 30% 0.9 .27 19% .35 83% .29 1.04 45% 50% 39% 0 0 1.02 17% 1.6 .28 14% .13 100% .13
Jan
17		 Montana St. D- F A+ B D+ 58% 4% 38% A+ C+ F D F F C- A+ B B- B+ B+ F B- 30% 38% 32% A B C B- C+ D+ F D- F
0.94 45% 100% 37% -4 +4 1.02 10% 1.0 .10 21% .25 93% .23 1.07 50% 35% 41% 0 -3 0.96 27% 1.0 .27 14% .36 77% .28
Jan
19		 Northern Arizona A+ A A+ A+ A+ 45% 10% 45% B A+ C A+ A+ A C A+ B- D- F A+ C- F 40% 4% 56% F F B A+ A F D+ B C-
1.59 73% 60% 59% +26 +2 1.57 33% 2.0 .67 11% .29 81% .24 1.17 75% 0% 36% +7 +2 1.20 20% 0.7 .13 11% .29 63% .18
Jan
22		 Weber St. B A+ F A+ A+ 45% 13% 43% B A+ D A+ B+ F F A F B F A- B D- 51% 15% 34% D D- A A+ A+ C+ D A+ C+
1.25 81% 17% 50% +18 +1 1.40 25% 1.6 .40 23% .20 80% .16 1.01 71% 29% 31% +4 +2 1.13 24% 0.4 .10 17% .37 60% .22
Jan
24		 Idaho St. F B- C D+ C- 46% 13% 41% B C F F F D F A+ F A A+ A- B+ A+ 31% 21% 48% A- A+ B+ F C- B B- A- B+
1.03 64% 43% 32% +2 +2 1.09 16% 0.4 .06 16% .16 89% .14 0.89 40% 30% 30% -10 -1 0.81 28% 1.3 .35 19% .28 67% .18
Jan
29		 Portland St. D+ A+ B F A- 44% 29% 27% D+ B+ F+ F F F A+ A- A+ A+ B C- A+ A+ 40% 20% 40% C+ A+ C D- D+ A+ F C F
0.93 78% 42% 18% +3 -1 1.07 20% 0.4 .08 25% .48 80% .39 0.88 50% 38% 19% -12 0 0.78 30% 1.1 .33 25% .58 70% .41
Jan
31		 Sacramento St. C- F A A- D- 59% 4% 37% A+ D+ C+ A+ A+ F B+ B A- F+ F A+ F F 36% 21% 43% D F B- A+ A+ D+ D- A- C-
1.09 45% 50% 39% -5 +4 1.00 35% 1.6 .56 22% .37 76% .28 1.19 79% 9% 48% +10 0 1.23 24% 0.5 .12 14% .39 71% .27
Feb
5		 Eastern Washington D- C+ A+ B B+ 38% 21% 40% D+ B D F F F C- C+ C D C+ F F F 33% 24% 43% B D- C+ A- B+ C F A+ D
1.05 61% 60% 37% +8 0 1.17 27% 0.8 .20 24% .32 76% .24 1.16 56% 50% 43% +8 -1 1.16 29% 1.0 .29 18% .42 63% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Idaho D D+ A A+ A- 31% 20% 49% C+ A- F A+ D+ F C F D- A- B A+ D B 35% 18% 47% C+ B- B A+ A+ C+ A A+ A+
1.01 53% 50% 42% +7 -1 1.14 17% 1.4 .23 21% .35 60% .21 0.94 50% 20% 37% -4 0 0.95 25% 0.6 .16 17% .20 58% .12
Feb
14		 Montana St. C- A- D- C- B- 37% 12% 51% C+ B- F D F C+ B A+ A F F C+ F F 21% 43% 36% A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ F F A- D-
1.08 67% 33% 32% +1 +1 1.06 20% 1.0 .20 15% .30 88% .27 1.24 82% 39% 47% +13 -4 1.19 18% 0.8 .15 8% .34 67% .23
Feb
19		 Idaho St. D- F+ C- A+ B 28% 28% 44% F C+ F F F F A D B+ C+ B- F F+ D 49% 16% 35% D D- B A+ A+ C+ C F D+
1.02 50% 42% 47% +8 -2 1.14 18% 0.8 .14 21% .41 73% .30 1.08 52% 63% 39% +3 +1 1.12 29% 0.6 .18 18% .30 82% .25
Feb
21		 Weber St. D+ B- D C C- 40% 18% 42% C C- D- F F C+ D+ A+ C+ F F F F F 48% 19% 33% C F F+ F F C D F F
1.07 65% 33% 33% +1 0 1.06 22% 0.9 .19 15% .30 82% .24 1.36 70% 44% 50% +15 +1 1.33 38% 1.2 .46 16% .37 81% .30
Feb
26		 Sacramento St. D+ A+ F+ B A- 33% 12% 55% C- B+ F A+ F D+ C+ A B+ C+ C+ A+ A A 48% 19% 33% F B+ C D C- F+ B+ C B+
1.12 75% 33% 37% +7 +1 1.18 14% 1.8 .24 18% .34 80% .27 1.01 54% 9% 26% -11 +1 0.81 26% 1.2 .30 11% .28 78% .22
Feb
28		 Portland St. C C+ B- A A 36% 21% 43% C- A- F A+ B D+ C+ F D B- B F A+ B+ 22% 18% 60% A- B+ D+ C- D+ C+ B A+ A-
1.03 59% 40% 40% +5 0 1.11 19% 1.8 .35 20% .36 62% .23 0.95 50% 60% 24% -7 -1 0.87 33% 1.0 .33 20% .26 60% .16
Mar
2		 Northern Colorado F D D+ F D- 44% 19% 37% C D- F F F F F F F C- D F D+ D 41% 13% 47% D D A+ B- A F A D- A-
0.78 52% 36% 24% -9 +1 0.86 10% 0.5 .05 18% .17 60% .10 1.16 65% 50% 37% +6 +1 1.17 17% 1.0 .17 10% .15 80% .12
Mar
9		 Northern Colorado A D+ A+ B A 34% 26% 40% F+ B+ D+ A+ A+ C A+ A A+ D- B D- C B 43% 18% 38% C- B- C- B- C F F C+ F
1.27 53% 62% 35% +5 -1 1.10 23% 2.1 .50 12% .46 83% .38 1.19 54% 45% 35% 0 +1 1.03 28% 1.0 .28 5% .33 74% .24
Mar
10		 Portland St. C A+ A+ A+ A+ 20% 27% 52% F A+ F F F F B C- B- B- B C A+ A+ 39% 25% 36% B+ A+ D+ C- D+ F F F F
1.02 78% 50% 48% +18 -2 1.34 12% 0.0 .00 24% .40 73% .29 0.98 50% 36% 10% -17 0 0.68 33% 1.0 .33 10% .41 89% .36
Mar
11		 Idaho F C B F D 37% 18% 45% B D+ F A+ F F C+ B- B- C A+ F A+ A+ 42% 20% 38% C A F+ D+ D- F F D F
0.92 58% 44% 26% -4 0 0.94 9% 1.3 .13 19% .36 76% .28 1.07 38% 70% 21% -9 0 0.84 34% 1.1 .37 11% .50 75% .37



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 100.0% 100.0
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%