Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.7#303
Expected Predictive Rating-3.9#243
Pace70.0#138
Improvement+0.7#153

Offense
Total Offense-4.3#290
First Shot-1.9#231
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#317
Layup/Dunks-1.1#217
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#163
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#99
Freethrows-3.1#348
Improvement+3.3#32

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#276
First Shot-3.9#307
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#136
Layups/Dunks-5.0#333
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#52
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#130
Freethrows-2.0#306
Improvement-2.6#309
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 1.3% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.8% 6.4% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.8% 6.4% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.0% 1.1% 0.9%
First Round0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho St. (Away) - 27.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 32 - 73 - 12
Quad 411 - 614 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 3   @ Connecticut L 52-95 1%     0 - 1 -19.7 -10.7 -10.0
  Nov 12, 2023 70   @ Grand Canyon L 55-89 5%     0 - 2 -23.3 -14.4 -8.0
  Nov 15, 2023 114   @ Seattle W 62-60 10%     1 - 2 +8.7 -8.3 +16.9
  Nov 17, 2023 171   Purdue Fort Wayne L 67-77 24%     1 - 3 -10.5 -13.4 +4.1
  Nov 18, 2023 357   VMI W 78-69 77%     2 - 3 -6.6 -2.0 -4.9
  Nov 21, 2023 153   @ Hawaii L 61-70 15%     2 - 4 -5.8 -11.0 +5.5
  Nov 29, 2023 174   @ UC Santa Barbara L 59-70 18%     2 - 5 -8.9 -11.7 +2.4
  Dec 02, 2023 343   Pacific W 78-58 77%     3 - 5 +4.7 +6.7 +0.4
  Dec 06, 2023 208   @ Abilene Christian W 78-76 23%     4 - 5 +1.9 +1.0 +0.8
  Dec 09, 2023 345   @ Incarnate Word W 76-75 58%     5 - 5 -8.9 -0.9 -8.0
  Dec 16, 2023 224   Southern Utah W 76-74 43%     6 - 5 -4.0 -4.6 +0.5
  Dec 20, 2023 66   @ San Francisco L 51-91 5%     6 - 6 -28.7 -14.0 -16.1
  Dec 30, 2023 197   @ Northern Colorado L 77-92 22%     6 - 7 0 - 1 -14.6 +5.3 -20.6
  Jan 03, 2024 255   @ Nebraska Omaha L 55-81 28%     6 - 8 -27.8 -14.9 -15.6
  Jan 06, 2024 236   North Dakota W 74-73 45%     7 - 8 -5.4 -1.0 -4.4
  Jan 11, 2024 259   @ Montana St. L 50-79 30%     7 - 9 0 - 2 -31.3 -22.0 -9.7
  Jan 13, 2024 160   @ Montana L 47-90 16%     7 - 10 0 - 3 -40.0 -21.1 -25.3
  Jan 18, 2024 252   Portland St. W 84-65 48%     8 - 10 1 - 3 +11.9 +4.2 +6.4
  Jan 20, 2024 317   Sacramento St. W 70-61 66%     9 - 10 2 - 3 -3.1 -5.3 +2.5
  Jan 25, 2024 302   @ Idaho W 75-60 39%     10 - 10 3 - 3 +10.0 +3.4 +7.5
  Jan 27, 2024 145   @ Eastern Washington L 70-85 13%     10 - 11 3 - 4 -10.6 -4.7 -5.6
  Feb 01, 2024 151   Weber St. L 70-72 28%     10 - 12 3 - 5 -3.8 -2.4 -1.5
  Feb 03, 2024 254   Idaho St. L 79-81 48%     10 - 13 3 - 6 -9.3 +4.4 -13.7
  Feb 08, 2024 160   Montana L 66-94 31%     10 - 14 3 - 7 -30.5 -11.1 -19.7
  Feb 10, 2024 259   Montana St. W 76-71 50%     11 - 14 4 - 7 -2.7 -5.8 +2.6
  Feb 15, 2024 317   @ Sacramento St. W 73-58 46%     12 - 14 5 - 7 +8.4 +13.9 -2.2
  Feb 17, 2024 252   @ Portland St. L 68-83 28%     12 - 15 5 - 8 -16.7 -5.4 -10.9
  Feb 22, 2024 145   Eastern Washington W 78-71 26%     13 - 15 6 - 8 +6.0 +3.0 +3.0
  Feb 24, 2024 302   Idaho L 76-86 60%     13 - 16 6 - 9 -20.5 -5.3 -14.7
  Feb 29, 2024 254   @ Idaho St. L 66-72 28%    
  Mar 02, 2024 151   @ Weber St. L 65-76 14%    
  Mar 04, 2024 197   Northern Colorado L 76-79 41%    
Projected Record 14 - 18 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.2 0.2 4th
5th 0.1 5.1 1.5 6.8 5th
6th 2.6 7.5 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 15.2 3.5 18.7 7th
8th 26.2 25.7 0.5 52.5 8th
9th 11.3 0.5 11.8 9th
10th 10th
Total 37.5 44.1 16.7 1.8 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 1.8% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 1.7
8-10 16.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2 16.4
7-11 44.1% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.5 43.6
6-12 37.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.3 37.2
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.8% 1.5% 16.0 1.5
Lose Out 37.5% 0.7% 16.0 0.7