Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.7#289
Expected Predictive Rating-6.6#263
Pace66.6#256
Improvement-3.3#345

Offense
Total Offense-4.6#293
First Shot-2.3#233
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#321
Layup/Dunks+2.1#99
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#103
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#246
Freethrows-3.9#352
Improvement-2.9#350

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#239
First Shot-3.0#281
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#118
Layups/Dunks-2.0#254
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#90
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#303
Freethrows+1.0#112
Improvement-0.5#215
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 3.5% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 5.6% 11.3% 3.4%
.500 or above in Conference 22.6% 38.3% 16.7%
Conference Champion 1.7% 3.7% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 33.1% 17.8% 38.8%
First Four1.2% 1.6% 1.0%
First Round1.7% 2.8% 1.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana (Away) - 27.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 92 - 12
Quad 48 - 710 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 143 Drake L 71-77 23%     0 - 1 -4.8 -1.1 -3.8
  Tue, Nov 11 2 @Arizona L 49-84 1%     0 - 2 -8.7 -11.0 +2.9
  Mon, Nov 24 257 Cal Poly W 93-87 56%     1 - 2 -2.4 +4.7 -7.9
  Wed, Nov 26 215 Southeast Missouri St. W 79-72 49%     2 - 2 +0.5 +3.7 -3.1
  Wed, Dec 3 172 South Dakota St. L 62-75 39%     2 - 3 -16.8 -11.7 -5.4
  Sat, Dec 6 155 @North Dakota St. L 68-69 17%     2 - 4 +2.4 -3.9 +6.2
  Tue, Dec 9 71 @Arizona St. L 48-73 6%     2 - 5 -14.2 -17.6 +1.5
  Sat, Dec 13 260 @San Diego L 69-78 34%     2 - 6 -11.5 -2.1 -9.9
  Thu, Dec 18 319 Southern Utah W 65-57 71%     3 - 6 -4.4 -7.3 +3.6
  Sun, Dec 21 162 @Incarnate Word L 66-90 19%     3 - 7 -21.3 -6.1 -16.0
  Thu, Jan 1 209 @Montana L 71-78 27%    
  Sat, Jan 3 168 @Montana St. L 64-73 19%    
  Thu, Jan 8 223 Weber St. W 73-72 51%    
  Sat, Jan 10 175 Idaho St. L 67-70 40%    
  Thu, Jan 15 276 @Sacramento St. L 72-75 37%    
  Sat, Jan 17 173 @Portland St. L 64-73 21%    
  Mon, Jan 19 209 Montana L 74-75 48%    
  Sat, Jan 24 171 Northern Colorado L 71-74 39%    
  Thu, Jan 29 258 Eastern Washington W 77-75 56%    
  Sat, Jan 31 177 Idaho L 69-72 41%    
  Thu, Feb 5 175 @Idaho St. L 64-73 22%    
  Sat, Feb 7 223 @Weber St. L 70-76 30%    
  Thu, Feb 12 173 Portland St. L 67-70 41%    
  Sat, Feb 14 276 Sacramento St. W 75-72 59%    
  Sat, Feb 21 171 @Northern Colorado L 68-77 21%    
  Thu, Feb 26 177 @Idaho L 66-75 22%    
  Sat, Feb 28 258 @Eastern Washington L 74-78 34%    
  Mon, Mar 2 168 Montana St. L 67-70 39%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.2 3rd
4th 0.2 2.2 2.8 0.6 0.0 5.9 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 4.2 1.2 0.1 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.9 5.0 2.2 0.1 9.3 6th
7th 0.2 2.0 5.8 3.5 0.3 11.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.7 6.5 5.0 0.5 0.0 15.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.2 7.2 4.9 1.0 0.0 18.7 9th
10th 0.3 1.4 3.9 6.4 6.3 3.5 0.9 0.0 22.6 10th
Total 0.3 1.4 4.0 7.7 10.9 13.6 14.3 13.8 11.3 9.2 6.2 3.6 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 92.9% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 81.7% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 57.5% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 23.0% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 5.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 31.0% 31.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.4% 11.9% 11.9% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 1.0% 13.3% 13.3% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8
12-6 2.0% 11.7% 11.7% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.8
11-7 3.6% 8.2% 8.2% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 3.3
10-8 6.2% 5.3% 5.3% 15.8 0.1 0.3 5.9
9-9 9.2% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4 8.8
8-10 11.3% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.3 11.1
7-11 13.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 13.7
6-12 14.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 14.2
5-13 13.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 13.5
4-14 10.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.9
3-15 7.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.7
2-16 4.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.0
1-17 1.4% 1.4
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 97.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%