Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -9.0 312
Expected Predictive Rating -8.1 296
Pace 62.3 340
Improvement -2.8 298

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #216 C D- C+ D- C-
Defense D- #350 D- D C- C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 176 56% 214 -0.6 198
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 88 35% 288 +0.8 127
Three Pointers 37% 272 37% 40 -0.2 187
1st FG Attempt 1.02 177 +0.0 176
Second Chance 23.4% 346 0.99 237 0.23 337
Turnovers 16.6% 160
Freethrows 0.26 306 67% 334 0.18 332
Total Offense -1.8 216

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 107 60% 236 -2.6 268
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 321 39% 234 +1.6 64
Three Pointers 43% 119 39% 349 -4.1 335
1st FG Attempt 1.12 331 -5.1 331
Second Chance 33.8% 309 1.08 263 0.36 308
Turnovers 16.2% 222
Freethrows 0.29 121 73% 249 0.21 142
Total Defense -7.2 350

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.5 261 +0.8 318
Shot Type Accuracy +0.5 154 +4.1 324
Possession Length 19.2 340 17.2 182
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 311 0.16 150
Improvement +3.1 #45 -5.9 #362

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 78.9% 61.6% 84.6%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland St. (Home) - 24.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 102 - 14
Quad 46 - 88 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 164 Drake L 71 - 77 21% -0  37% 0 - 1 D+ -7 D -5 D+ F A+ C- -2 D- A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 2 @Arizona L 49 - 84 0% -24  2% 0 - 2 D+ -7 F -12 D+ D- F B+ +6 C B- A
 Mon, Nov 24 267 Cal Poly W 93 - 87 50% +0  54% 1 - 2 C- -3 C +1 B C- C+ D+ -5 F+ B C-
 Wed, Nov 26 226 Southeast Missouri St. W 79 - 72 41% +7  94% 2 - 2 C +0 C+ +2 C- A+ B C -2 B C F
 Wed, Dec 3 194 South Dakota St. L 62 - 75 35% -6  17% 2 - 3 F -18 F -15 F+ D- D- D+ -4 B+ D- C
 Sat, Dec 6 148 @North Dakota St. L 68 - 69 12% -1  26% 2 - 4 C+ +3 D- -7 D+ D- C+ A +10 B+ B- A+
 Tue, Dec 9 74 @Arizona St. L 48 - 73 4% -12  2% 2 - 5 D- -14 F -20 F F C B- +4 C B A-
 Sat, Dec 13 223 @San Diego L 69 - 78 21% -6  5% 2 - 6 D -9 D+ -4 C+ C- F D -6 F+ F B+
 Thu, Dec 18 284 Southern Utah W 65 - 57 54% +0  43% 3 - 6 C- -2 F+ -9 F+ D+ B- B+ +8 C+ A B+
 Sun, Dec 21 250 @Incarnate Word L 66 - 90 25% -10  3% 3 - 7 F -26 F+ -10 B- F F+ F -17 F F F
 Thu, Jan 1 168 @Montana L 64 - 78 15% -4  15% 3 - 8 0 - 1 D- -12 D -5 D+ C+ F D- -8 F B C-
 Sat, Jan 3 160 @Montana St. L 68 - 77 14% -7  13% 3 - 9 0 - 2 D+ -6 C+ +2 B- D A- F+ -9 F D- D-
 Thu, Jan 8 231 Weber St. L 65 - 78 42% -5  8% 3 - 10 0 - 3 F -20 F+ -8 F+ C- A- F -13 D F+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 252 Idaho St. L 79 - 81 46% -2  39% 3 - 11 0 - 4 D -10 B- +4 D A+ D F -14 F F A
 Thu, Jan 15 257 @Sacramento St. L 69 - 83 26% -1  50% 3 - 12 0 - 5 F+ -16 D -5 C+ F F+ F -12 D F F
 Sat, Jan 17 141 @Portland St. L 52 - 63 11% -5  26% 3 - 13 0 - 6 D+ -7 F -10 C+ F D C+ +2 B- D C
 Mon, Jan 19 168 Montana L 72 - 98 30% -12  6% 3 - 14 0 - 7 F -30 B +6 A+ F A F -39 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 176 Northern Colorado W 81 - 77 31% +2  69% 4 - 14 1 - 7 C +0 A +12 A+ B+ C F -12 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 29 227 Eastern Washington W 92 - 86 41% +12  99% 5 - 14 2 - 7 C -1 A+ +19 B+ A A+ F -19 D F C
 Sat, Jan 31 189 Idaho L 62 - 79 35% -15  0% 5 - 15 2 - 8 F -22 F -11 D+ D+ D+ F -12 F A- D
 Thu, Feb 5 252 @Idaho St. W 79 - 73 25% +4  74% 6 - 15 3 - 8 C+ +4 A+ +14 A+ F A+ D- -9 F+ F F
 Sat, Feb 7 231 @Weber St. L 53 - 72 22% -7  27% 6 - 16 3 - 9 F -20 F -15 F+ F B- D- -9 D- F D+
 Thu, Feb 12 141 Portland St. L 66 - 73 25%
 Sat, Feb 14 257 Sacramento St. L 78 - 79 48%
 Sat, Feb 21 176 @Northern Colorado L 70 - 81 15%
 Thu, Feb 26 189 @Idaho L 67 - 77 17%
 Sat, Feb 28 227 @Eastern Washington L 71 - 79 21%
 Mon, Mar 2 160 Montana St. L 68 - 74 30%
Totals 8 - 20 5 - 13 -9 C- -2 C D- C+ D- -7 D- D C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- D+ B C 39% 25% 37% C- C D- C- D- C+ D D- D- D- C- C- F+ D 42% 16% 43% D D- D D+ D C- C+ C- C+
1.06 56% 35% 37% +1 -1 1.02 23% 1.0 .23 17% .26 67% .18 1.19 60% 39% 39% +4 +1 1.12 34% 1.1 .36 16% .29 73% .19
Nov
3		 Drake D F F A+ D 49% 20% 31% A- D+ C F F A+ F F F C- C F C- D 46% 15% 38% F D- F A+ A+ C D- C- D-
1.03 43% 17% 53% -3 +1 0.98 31% 0.5 .14 9% .19 58% .11 1.11 58% 63% 35% +5 +1 1.13 33% 0.3 .11 14% .37 73% .27
Nov
11		 Arizona F D+ F C+ D+ 40% 37% 23% C+ D+ B- F D- F F B F B+ C A+ F C+ 34% 18% 48% C- C B- C+ B- A C+ F D+
0.69 48% 21% 33% -11 -2 0.77 26% 0.4 .09 24% .13 71% .09 1.18 65% 22% 46% +8 0 1.18 38% 0.9 .35 20% .37 81% .30
Nov
24		 Cal Poly C C- A A B+ 39% 21% 39% D+ B D+ C C- C+ A+ F A- D+ D- A+ D+ F+ 43% 2% 55% D- F+ B+ C+ B C- A- D+ A-
1.17 59% 50% 41% +7 0 1.16 30% 1.1 .33 15% .49 55% .27 1.10 65% 0% 36% +5 +3 1.17 26% 0.9 .23 20% .24 80% .19
Nov
26		 Southeast Missouri St. C+ C C C- C- 49% 26% 26% D+ C- D+ A+ A+ B B- D+ C+ C C A+ A+ A 59% 7% 34% F B C C C F A+ A+ A+
1.14 57% 42% 33% 0 0 1.02 25% 2.4 .61 16% .43 72% .31 1.04 56% 25% 20% -9 +3 0.90 29% 1.3 .36 12% .21 54% .11
Dec
3		 South Dakota St. F C- C+ F F+ 33% 24% 43% D F+ F B- D- D- B F D+ D+ B B+ B A- 37% 12% 51% D B+ D+ F+ D- C F D+ F
0.91 56% 42% 24% -6 -1 0.88 19% 1.1 .22 19% .34 58% .20 1.10 53% 33% 31% -5 +1 0.94 32% 1.2 .37 16% .44 72% .31
Dec
6		 North Dakota St. D- A- F A- C 34% 38% 28% F D+ D- D D- C+ F C- F A B+ D+ B- B 27% 37% 37% A+ B+ F A+ B- A+ D- A+ C-
0.96 72% 30% 40% +4 -3 1.06 24% 0.8 .18 18% .14 75% .10 0.98 50% 42% 32% -2 -3 0.92 40% 0.7 .29 23% .33 61% .20
Dec
9		 Arizona St. F A- F F F 31% 20% 49% C- F F F F C F A+ D- B- F A+ C+ C- 38% 25% 38% B C C A B A- D- A C-
0.74 67% 20% 21% -11 -1 0.80 11% 0.5 .06 20% .19 90% .17 1.12 78% 25% 33% +4 -1 1.08 32% 1.0 .32 20% .42 68% .29
Dec
13		 San Diego D+ A+ D+ B B 26% 34% 40% F C+ D+ C+ C- F D- A+ C D D- B- F F 33% 20% 47% C- F+ D+ F F B+ F C F
1.04 75% 38% 37% +6 -3 1.09 32% 1.1 .36 26% .28 86% .24 1.17 67% 33% 43% +8 0 1.18 32% 1.7 .54 21% .46 75% .34
Dec
18		 Southern Utah F+ F+ D A+ F+ 51% 31% 18% C- F+ F+ B+ D+ B- B D- C+ B+ A B F B- 54% 21% 25% D- C+ B+ A+ A B+ C B+ C+
1.00 48% 33% 44% -4 0 0.94 24% 1.1 .27 12% .30 65% .19 0.88 46% 30% 42% -5 +1 0.94 24% 0.8 .18 23% .24 67% .16
Dec
21		 Incarnate Word F+ B- F A+ B+ 41% 22% 37% D B- F F F F+ C F F F C C F F 34% 15% 51% D- F F+ D- F F F B- F
0.98 63% 30% 47% +8 0 1.17 11% 0.7 .07 21% .39 48% .19 1.33 56% 38% 44% +7 0 1.17 38% 1.1 .41 10% .49 67% .33
Jan
1		 Montana D F+ C+ C+ C- 34% 28% 38% D D+ C B- C+ F C B C D- F A F F 39% 14% 47% C- F B- B- B C- B- F C
0.98 50% 38% 33% -3 -1 0.94 29% 1.1 .32 20% .29 73% .21 1.19 74% 29% 43% +11 +1 1.27 20% 1.0 .20 20% .27 86% .23
Jan
3		 Montana St. C+ C+ C+ A+ A- 37% 42% 21% F B- D C- D A- F+ F F F+ A- F F F+ 29% 13% 58% F+ F D D+ D- D- C F D-
1.08 58% 41% 45% +5 -3 1.06 26% 1.0 .26 13% .20 64% .13 1.22 46% 67% 42% +8 0 1.18 33% 1.1 .37 13% .25 93% .24
Jan
8		 Weber St. F+ C- C+ F F 43% 11% 47% B F+ D- A C- A- C- F D F B A F D 44% 7% 48% D D C- F F+ F A+ A+ A+
1.04 60% 40% 23% -7 +2 0.91 24% 1.4 .32 13% .31 65% .20 1.24 50% 25% 42% +2 +2 1.09 33% 1.2 .41 8% .12 43% .05
Jan
10		 Idaho St. B- C- F F F+ 60% 14% 26% A D B+ A+ A+ D A+ C A+ F F F C- F 41% 20% 39% B- F F C F A F F F
1.23 56% 33% 27% -4 +2 0.98 38% 1.6 .62 17% .49 77% .38 1.26 72% 67% 35% +13 0 1.27 48% 1.0 .48 22% .42 81% .34
Jan
15		 Sacramento St. D D A+ B- C+ 48% 17% 35% C C+ C- F F F+ F+ B- D F A+ C F D+ 37% 21% 42% D- D C F F F C F D-
1.04 52% 63% 35% +2 +1 1.08 32% 0.6 .21 20% .24 77% .19 1.25 37% 36% 45% -1 0 1.00 27% 2.0 .55 11% .34 90% .30
Jan
17		 Portland St. F F+ C A B- 40% 26% 35% D+ C+ F F F D F+ F F C+ B+ A+ C+ B 47% 9% 45% F+ B- D- C D C F+ A- D
0.84 47% 36% 40% -2 -1 0.98 14% 0.0 .00 21% .31 67% .21 1.02 50% 25% 33% -5 +2 0.96 37% 0.9 .34 19% .38 63% .24
Jan
19		 Montana B A+ F B A 40% 4% 56% A A+ F F F A C F D+ F F F F F 45% 10% 45% F+ F F F F F C D C-
1.17 75% 0% 36% +7 +2 1.20 20% 0.7 .13 11% .29 63% .18 1.59 73% 60% 59% +26 +2 1.57 33% 2.0 .67 11% .29 81% .24
Jan
24		 Northern Colorado A A+ C A+ A+ 33% 33% 33% F A+ F A+ B+ C C+ D+ C+ F D D+ F F 26% 26% 48% A F F B+ F A+ A F B+
1.30 73% 40% 53% +16 -2 1.29 17% 2.3 .39 13% .35 74% .26 1.24 67% 42% 50% +15 -2 1.28 47% 0.9 .43 24% .15 86% .13
Jan
29		 Eastern Washington A+ F+ A- A+ B 55% 8% 37% A- B+ D- A+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ F B- A+ F D+ 51% 10% 39% F D F B- F C F D F
1.42 48% 50% 56% +7 +3 1.22 27% 2.0 .54 8% .47 93% .43 1.33 52% 20% 47% +3 +2 1.12 49% 1.0 .49 19% .53 79% .42
Jan
31		 Idaho F D B+ D+ D+ 40% 27% 33% C D+ D- B D+ D+ D+ F F+ F F D- D F 43% 13% 44% D- F A+ C- A- D A+ D- A+
0.95 53% 46% 31% -1 -1 0.98 20% 1.1 .23 17% .33 61% .20 1.21 74% 43% 38% +10 +1 1.24 18% 1.0 .18 14% .16 78% .12
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Idaho St. A+ A A+ A+ A+ 38% 21% 40% C- A+ F A+ F A+ D D D- D- F B+ C+ D- 52% 7% 41% F F+ A F F F C C- C
1.33 72% 60% 47% +18 0 1.38 9% 1.5 .14 8% .28 73% .20 1.23 70% 33% 33% +5 +3 1.18 24% 1.8 .43 12% .31 75% .23
Feb
7		 Weber St. F C- F C D- 27% 25% 48% F F+ D- F F B- C+ F D D- C+ F D D 56% 7% 37% F D- F D F D+ F C+ F
0.90 58% 27% 33% -3 -1 0.93 23% 0.5 .11 15% .34 59% .20 1.23 54% 67% 38% +2 +3 1.12 39% 1.1 .42 15% .52 69% .36



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.4 0.3 0.7 6th
7th 0.3 1.6 0.2 2.0 7th
8th 0.4 4.1 1.6 0.0 6.2 8th
9th 0.9 7.8 15.8 8.9 0.3 33.6 9th
10th 16.5 26.6 12.6 1.5 0.0 57.2 10th
Total 17.3 34.4 28.9 14.8 3.9 0.7 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.1% 0.1
8-10 0.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7
7-11 3.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.8
6-12 14.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 14.7
5-13 28.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.2 28.8
4-14 34.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 34.2
3-15 17.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.3
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 11.8%