Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.4#258
Expected Predictive Rating-5.1#246
Pace66.6#261
Improvement-0.8#245

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#257
First Shot-1.8#224
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#284
Layup/Dunks+3.9#62
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#146
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#269
Freethrows-3.5#341
Improvement-1.6#309

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#236
First Shot-3.3#286
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#95
Layups/Dunks-3.1#293
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#142
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#262
Freethrows+1.2#112
Improvement+0.8#117
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.5% 4.5% 2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 14.0% 22.5% 8.6%
.500 or above in Conference 30.2% 37.1% 25.9%
Conference Champion 3.2% 4.6% 2.3%
Last Place in Conference 26.2% 20.6% 29.7%
First Four1.3% 1.2% 1.3%
First Round3.0% 3.9% 2.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego (Away) - 38.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 33 - 93 - 12
Quad 48 - 611 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 130 Drake L 71-77 23%     0 - 1 -3.7 +0.6 -4.3
  Tue, Nov 11 5 @Arizona L 49-84 1%     0 - 2 -11.0 -12.9 +2.5
  Mon, Nov 24 250 Cal Poly W 93-87 60%     1 - 2 -2.1 +4.9 -7.7
  Wed, Nov 26 217 Southeast Missouri St. W 79-72 54%     2 - 2 +0.6 +4.5 -3.9
  Wed, Dec 3 158 South Dakota St. L 62-75 41%     2 - 3 -16.1 -9.8 -6.5
  Sat, Dec 6 151 @North Dakota St. L 68-69 20%     2 - 4 +2.3 -2.1 +4.5
  Tue, Dec 9 60 @Arizona St. L 48-73 6%     2 - 5 -13.1 -16.5 +1.4
  Sat, Dec 13 257 @San Diego L 74-77 39%    
  Thu, Dec 18 319 Southern Utah W 76-69 73%    
  Sat, Dec 20 188 @Incarnate Word L 67-74 26%    
  Thu, Jan 1 202 @Montana L 72-78 30%    
  Sat, Jan 3 165 @Montana St. L 65-73 23%    
  Thu, Jan 8 215 Weber St. W 73-72 54%    
  Sat, Jan 10 160 Idaho St. L 67-69 43%    
  Thu, Jan 15 276 @Sacramento St. L 73-75 42%    
  Sat, Jan 17 176 @Portland St. L 66-73 26%    
  Mon, Jan 19 202 Montana W 75-74 52%    
  Sat, Jan 24 161 Northern Colorado L 72-74 42%    
  Thu, Jan 29 236 Eastern Washington W 76-74 56%    
  Sat, Jan 31 177 Idaho L 72-73 46%    
  Thu, Feb 5 160 @Idaho St. L 64-72 23%    
  Sat, Feb 7 215 @Weber St. L 70-75 33%    
  Thu, Feb 12 176 Portland St. L 69-70 46%    
  Sat, Feb 14 276 Sacramento St. W 76-72 63%    
  Sat, Feb 21 161 @Northern Colorado L 69-77 23%    
  Thu, Feb 26 177 @Idaho L 69-76 26%    
  Sat, Feb 28 236 @Eastern Washington L 73-77 36%    
  Mon, Mar 2 165 Montana St. L 68-70 43%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.2 1st
2nd 0.4 1.8 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.2 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.8 3rd
4th 0.2 2.6 3.4 0.9 0.0 7.2 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 4.8 1.7 0.1 9.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 5.6 2.4 0.1 10.2 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 5.8 3.8 0.3 12.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.9 4.6 0.6 13.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.5 6.0 4.4 0.9 0.0 16.1 9th
10th 0.2 1.2 3.0 4.9 4.8 3.0 0.6 0.0 17.6 10th
Total 0.2 1.2 3.1 6.0 8.6 11.6 12.9 13.5 12.6 10.5 7.8 5.6 3.2 1.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 94.8% 0.4    0.3 0.0
14-4 74.9% 0.6    0.4 0.2
13-5 54.9% 1.0    0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 25.6% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 4.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.2% 3.2 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 41.4% 41.4% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.4% 26.1% 26.1% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
14-4 0.8% 15.9% 15.9% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
13-5 1.8% 16.5% 16.5% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.5
12-6 3.2% 12.7% 12.7% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.8
11-7 5.6% 9.8% 9.8% 15.1 0.0 0.4 0.1 5.0
10-8 7.8% 7.5% 7.5% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 7.2
9-9 10.5% 4.7% 4.7% 15.9 0.1 0.4 10.0
8-10 12.6% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4 12.2
7-11 13.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 13.3
6-12 12.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 12.8
5-13 11.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.6
4-14 8.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 8.6
3-15 6.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.0
2-16 3.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.1
1-17 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.2
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.8 96.5 0.0%