Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.8#315
Expected Predictive Rating-6.2#261
Pace66.8#242
Improvement-0.4#219

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#264
First Shot-3.4#278
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#141
Layup/Dunks-3.4#296
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#184
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#188
Freethrows+0.9#119
Improvement+0.6#112

Defense
Total Defense-5.9#331
First Shot-6.6#336
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#131
Layups/Dunks-6.0#335
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#272
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#137
Freethrows-0.3#207
Improvement-1.1#280
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.6% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 4.6% 14.2% 4.1%
.500 or above in Conference 15.7% 37.5% 14.6%
Conference Champion 0.3% 1.4% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 15.0% 5.0% 15.5%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round0.4% 1.5% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Weber St. (Away) - 5.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 82 - 12
Quad 48 - 910 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 5   @ Arizona L 52-81 1%     0 - 1 -8.0 -10.0 +2.1
  Nov 11, 2021 143   @ Washington L 62-73 11%     0 - 2 -6.5 -12.1 +6.6
  Nov 18, 2021 202   Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-64 35%     1 - 2 +5.1 +2.5 +2.7
  Nov 20, 2021 282   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 89-87 31%     2 - 2 -1.6 +3.6 -5.4
  Nov 22, 2021 282   UT Rio Grande Valley L 80-82 53%     2 - 3 -11.6 +3.0 -14.7
  Nov 24, 2021 193   Cal St. Fullerton L 56-73 34%     2 - 4 -21.5 -13.9 -9.6
  Dec 02, 2021 98   @ Weber St. L 64-81 5%    
  Dec 04, 2021 309   @ Idaho St. L 64-68 37%    
  Dec 11, 2021 232   @ South Dakota L 68-76 22%    
  Dec 18, 2021 152   San Diego L 64-74 19%    
  Dec 20, 2021 1   @ Gonzaga L 62-97 0.1%   
  Dec 30, 2021 349   Idaho W 78-69 80%    
  Jan 01, 2022 201   Eastern Washington L 73-77 37%    
  Jan 08, 2022 141   @ Southern Utah L 66-80 11%    
  Jan 10, 2022 293   Sacramento St. W 71-70 55%    
  Jan 15, 2022 179   @ Northern Colorado L 67-78 16%    
  Jan 20, 2022 185   Montana St. L 70-75 34%    
  Jan 22, 2022 172   Montana L 66-71 32%    
  Jan 29, 2022 271   Portland St. W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 03, 2022 293   @ Sacramento St. L 68-73 35%    
  Feb 05, 2022 179   Northern Colorado L 70-75 33%    
  Feb 10, 2022 172   @ Montana L 63-74 16%    
  Feb 12, 2022 185   @ Montana St. L 67-78 18%    
  Feb 17, 2022 271   @ Portland St. L 67-73 31%    
  Feb 21, 2022 141   Southern Utah L 69-77 25%    
  Feb 24, 2022 309   Idaho St. W 67-65 59%    
  Feb 26, 2022 98   Weber St. L 67-78 17%    
  Mar 03, 2022 201   @ Eastern Washington L 70-80 20%    
  Mar 05, 2022 349   @ Idaho W 75-72 61%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 7 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 1.8 0.7 0.1 5.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.2 3.2 0.9 0.1 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.8 4.0 1.2 0.1 12.8 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 4.0 6.6 4.8 1.2 0.1 17.7 8th
9th 0.2 1.9 5.8 7.2 4.3 1.0 0.1 20.5 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 3.6 6.5 6.0 2.5 0.5 0.1 20.2 10th
11th 0.3 1.1 2.7 2.9 1.7 0.5 0.1 9.2 11th
Total 0.3 1.1 3.7 6.7 10.2 13.3 14.2 13.9 11.8 9.2 6.8 4.1 2.5 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 53.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 57.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 36.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 8.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.1% 5.8% 5.8% 15.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.3% 14.4% 14.4% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-6 0.7% 8.4% 8.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.6
13-7 1.2% 5.0% 5.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
12-8 2.5% 2.9% 2.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 2.5
11-9 4.1% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.0
10-10 6.8% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.8
9-11 9.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 9.1
8-12 11.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.8
7-13 13.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.8
6-14 14.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.2
5-15 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.3
4-16 10.2% 10.2
3-17 6.7% 6.7
2-18 3.7% 3.7
1-19 1.1% 1.1
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%