Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.0#293
Expected Predictive Rating-8.2#302
Pace67.2#208
Improvement-0.3#228

Offense
Total Offense-1.9#238
First Shot-1.3#228
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#221
Layup/Dunks-4.9#343
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#58
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#129
Freethrows+0.0#175
Improvement-0.5#273

Defense
Total Defense-5.1#318
First Shot-5.1#328
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#170
Layups/Dunks+0.0#179
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#100
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#293
Freethrows-3.2#350
Improvement+0.2#155
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.3% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.5% 6.6% 0.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 41.6% 21.3% 44.3%
First Four0.8% 1.3% 0.7%
First Round0.4% 0.7% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana St. (Away) - 11.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 83 - 14
Quad 45 - 77 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 39   @ Michigan St. L 55-73 4%     0 - 1 -3.8 -6.3 +1.3
  Nov 10, 2022 66   @ Arizona St. L 68-84 6%     0 - 2 -4.9 +2.2 -7.0
  Nov 12, 2022 99   @ Utah Valley L 69-73 9%     0 - 3 +3.4 +6.2 -3.1
  Nov 18, 2022 101   UC Santa Barbara W 63-54 20%     1 - 3 +10.8 -5.4 +16.6
  Nov 21, 2022 10   Texas L 48-73 3%     1 - 4 -9.2 -18.3 +9.2
  Nov 22, 2022 279   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 79-91 37%     1 - 5 -15.6 -1.4 -13.5
  Nov 27, 2022 218   Abilene Christian L 82-92 42%     1 - 6 -15.0 +6.6 -21.7
  Dec 03, 2022 190   @ Pepperdine L 69-88 21%     1 - 7 -17.4 -4.7 -12.3
  Dec 06, 2022 208   @ Pacific W 73-69 23%     2 - 7 +4.9 -0.9 +5.9
  Dec 10, 2022 99   Utah Valley L 75-80 OT 20%     2 - 8 -3.0 -3.3 +0.8
  Dec 17, 2022 114   @ Southern Utah L 101-106 OT 12%     2 - 9 +0.9 +9.4 -7.5
  Dec 29, 2022 283   @ Idaho St. L 53-79 38%     2 - 10 0 - 1 -29.8 -18.1 -13.7
  Dec 31, 2022 213   @ Weber St. L 60-76 24%     2 - 11 0 - 2 -15.4 -7.3 -8.9
  Jan 05, 2023 189   Montana W 75-74 OT 38%     3 - 11 1 - 2 -2.9 -2.0 -0.8
  Jan 07, 2023 120   Montana St. L 54-69 25%     3 - 12 1 - 3 -15.0 -17.2 +2.1
  Jan 12, 2023 247   @ Portland St. L 74-75 31%     3 - 13 1 - 4 -2.7 -3.8 +1.1
  Jan 14, 2023 219   @ Sacramento St. L 56-59 24%     3 - 14 1 - 5 -2.8 -9.5 +6.3
  Jan 19, 2023 309   Idaho L 83-88 64%     3 - 15 1 - 6 -15.8 +3.7 -19.6
  Jan 21, 2023 161   Eastern Washington L 76-79 33%     3 - 16 1 - 7 -5.4 +6.0 -11.6
  Jan 28, 2023 268   Northern Colorado W 83-73 55%     4 - 16 2 - 7 +1.7 +1.9 -0.3
  Feb 02, 2023 120   @ Montana St. L 64-76 12%    
  Feb 04, 2023 189   @ Montana L 65-74 20%    
  Feb 06, 2023 283   Idaho St. W 70-68 59%    
  Feb 09, 2023 219   Sacramento St. L 66-68 45%    
  Feb 11, 2023 247   Portland St. W 76-75 52%    
  Feb 16, 2023 161   @ Eastern Washington L 70-80 16%    
  Feb 18, 2023 309   @ Idaho L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 25, 2023 268   @ Northern Colorado L 74-78 34%    
  Feb 27, 2023 213   Weber St. L 67-69 43%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 5 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.8 0.5 0.0 2.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.5 2.5 0.2 6.5 6th
7th 0.5 5.6 6.4 0.8 0.0 13.3 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 8.1 12.2 2.4 0.0 23.7 8th
9th 1.4 9.4 13.9 4.1 0.1 0.0 28.9 9th
10th 2.3 8.2 9.9 3.3 0.1 23.8 10th
Total 2.3 9.6 20.2 25.8 22.4 12.8 5.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.2% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
9-9 1.3% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.0 1.2
8-10 5.3% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 5.2
7-11 12.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 12.6
6-12 22.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 22.2
5-13 25.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.2 25.7
4-14 20.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 20.2
3-15 9.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.5
2-16 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.3
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.8 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.3% 0.1% 16.0 0.1