Idaho
Big Sky
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.4#335
Expected Predictive Rating-9.1#301
Pace65.5#283
Improvement+2.7#36

Offense
Total Offense-5.0#312
First Shot-5.9#321
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#130
Layup/Dunks-3.7#298
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#132
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#128
Freethrows-4.7#351
Improvement+0.9#99

Defense
Total Defense-6.4#344
First Shot-3.3#281
After Offensive Rebounds-3.0#337
Layups/Dunks-2.3#268
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#126
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#204
Freethrows-1.3#263
Improvement+1.7#55
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 1.2% 2.1% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 5.3% 6.7% 3.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 59.4% 54.5% 64.2%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pacific (Home) - 49.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 11
Quad 46 - 117 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 62   @ Washington St. L 59-84 3%     0 - 1 -13.8 -6.4 -8.4
  Nov 09, 2023 272   Cal St. Northridge L 73-76 42%     0 - 2 -12.2 -5.3 -6.7
  Nov 22, 2023 136   @ Seattle L 55-92 7%     0 - 3 -32.0 -9.6 -24.9
  Nov 24, 2023 236   UC San Diego W 73-70 OT 23%     1 - 3 -0.6 -8.5 +7.6
  Nov 29, 2023 260   Denver L 65-67 38%     1 - 4 -10.3 -9.9 -0.6
  Dec 02, 2023 332   Cal Poly W 85-70 59%     2 - 4 +1.4 +10.9 -8.6
  Dec 05, 2023 311   Pacific L 70-71 50%    
  Dec 09, 2023 218   @ Utah Tech L 54-66 14%    
  Dec 17, 2023 101   @ Stanford L 62-81 4%    
  Dec 21, 2023 195   @ UC Riverside L 63-76 12%    
  Dec 28, 2023 269   Sacramento St. L 68-71 41%    
  Dec 30, 2023 161   Portland St. L 68-76 22%    
  Jan 03, 2024 250   St. Thomas L 64-68 36%    
  Jan 13, 2024 217   Eastern Washington L 74-80 29%    
  Jan 18, 2024 274   @ Idaho St. L 63-71 24%    
  Jan 20, 2024 117   @ Weber St. L 55-72 6%    
  Jan 25, 2024 241   Northern Arizona L 67-71 34%    
  Jan 27, 2024 270   Northern Colorado L 71-73 42%    
  Feb 01, 2024 166   @ Montana L 61-75 10%    
  Feb 03, 2024 227   @ Montana St. L 60-71 15%    
  Feb 05, 2024 269   @ Sacramento St. L 65-74 22%    
  Feb 10, 2024 217   @ Eastern Washington L 71-83 15%    
  Feb 15, 2024 117   Weber St. L 58-69 16%    
  Feb 17, 2024 274   Idaho St. L 66-68 43%    
  Feb 22, 2024 270   @ Northern Colorado L 68-76 24%    
  Feb 24, 2024 241   @ Northern Arizona L 64-74 18%    
  Feb 29, 2024 227   Montana St. L 63-68 33%    
  Mar 02, 2024 166   Montana L 64-72 23%    
  Mar 04, 2024 161   @ Portland St. L 65-79 11%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.6 4th
5th 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.1 0.8 0.0 4.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.5 3.4 1.3 0.1 8.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 4.3 5.2 2.0 0.1 13.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.7 7.8 6.9 2.5 0.3 0.0 22.0 9th
10th 2.9 7.9 13.2 12.7 6.9 2.4 0.2 0.0 46.4 10th
Total 2.9 8.0 14.0 16.5 16.1 14.2 10.6 7.6 4.8 2.8 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 35.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 5.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 4.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.1% 10.4% 10.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.3% 10.7% 10.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8
10-8 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.2
9-9 2.8% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 2.8
8-10 4.8% 4.8
7-11 7.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.5
6-12 10.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.6
5-13 14.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.2
4-14 16.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.1
3-15 16.5% 16.5
2-16 14.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.0
1-17 8.0% 8.0
0-18 2.9% 2.9
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.2%