Idaho
Big Sky
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.9 188
Expected Predictive Rating -1.8 199
Pace 68.1 200
Improvement -1.1 239

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #197 C D+ C+ C C+
Defense C #200 C B- D+ D B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 285 55% 255 -3.2 291
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 281 35% 286 -2.2 288
Three Pointers 49% 31 36% 108 +5.4 33
1st FG Attempt 1.02 183 +0.0 182
Second Chance 27.2% 276 0.97 273 0.26 285
Turnovers 16.2% 138
Freethrows 0.30 203 73% 151 0.22 181
Total Offense -1.2 197

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 191 59% 205 -0.3 187
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 42 42% 301 -3.0 351
Three Pointers 36% 326 34% 173 +2.8 71
1st FG Attempt 1.03 196 -0.5 196
Second Chance 25.8% 32 1.04 204 0.27 68
Turnovers 15.3% 279
Freethrows 0.36 313 73% 219 0.26 313
Total Defense -0.8 200

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.3 147 -0.7 68
Shot Type Accuracy -0.4 184 +1.2 226
Possession Length 17.7 222 17.0 139
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 307 0.18 207
Improvement -3.1 #332 +2.0 #82

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.2% 10.3% 6.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.6 15.0
.500 or above 55.9% 65.6% 34.6%
.500 or above in Conference 67.0% 77.8% 43.2%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.3% 2.1%
First Four0.5% 0.3% 0.8%
First Round9.0% 10.2% 6.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Weber St. (Home) - 68.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 35 - 96 - 11
Quad 49 - 315 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 124 @Washington St. W 83 - 81 24% +9  98% 1 - 0 B- +7 B +6 A D+ C- C+ +2 A- B+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 223 @San Diego L 74 - 78 44% -5  2% 1 - 1 C- -4 C +1 C D F D+ -5 F C- B-
 Sat, Nov 15 139 @UC San Diego L 67 - 75 28% +3  62% 1 - 2 C- -4 D -5 D C- C+ C+ +1 C B+ C
 Wed, Nov 26 186 Cal St. Northridge W 78 - 64 49% +4  61% 2 - 2 B+ +12 C- -2 F A C+ A+ +14 A+ B- D
 Fri, Nov 28 120 Sam Houston St. L 68 - 94 33% -4  41% 2 - 3 F -23 C +0 B- D+ A- F -26 F F F
 Wed, Dec 3 293 North Dakota W 90 - 58 80% +15  86% 3 - 3 A +21 B+ +8 A B+ C A+ +14 D+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 192 @South Dakota St. W 84 - 81 39% -1  34% 4 - 3 C+ +4 A- +10 A- D+ B D -7 C- A F
 Wed, Dec 10 84 @Notre Dame L 65 - 80 14% -5  4% 4 - 4 D+ -5 C+ +2 B- D- A+ D- -9 F+ C D+
 Sun, Dec 21 266 @Cal Poly W 83 - 80 OT 54% +7  87% 5 - 4 C +0 F+ -8 F+ D C- B+ +7 A A+ F+
 Tue, Dec 23 324 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 63 - 64 69% -2  20% 5 - 5 D -8 F -11 F F+ C+ B- +3 F B C
 Sat, Jan 3 228 Eastern Washington W 84 - 81 68% +2  57% 6 - 5 1 - 0 C- -4 B- +4 B- B+ D D- -8 A- F B
 Thu, Jan 8 165 Montana L 73 - 79 57% -9  2% 6 - 6 1 - 1 D -10 D+ -3 F B+ A D -6 C- B+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 160 Montana St. W 92 - 89 55% -9  4% 7 - 6 2 - 1 C -0 A+ +18 A+ D- A+ F -18 F C+ B-
 Thu, Jan 15 250 @Idaho St. L 68 - 76 50% +2  70% 7 - 7 2 - 2 D -10 D- -8 F A- B- C- -3 F+ A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 17 231 @Weber St. W 75 - 67 46% +9  96% 8 - 7 3 - 2 B- +7 F+ -9 F+ C+ F A+ +16 A+ D+ A
 Thu, Jan 22 255 Sacramento St. W 86 - 76 73% +7  94% 9 - 7 4 - 2 C +2 C+ +3 A F C- C -1 A- F+ D-
 Sat, Jan 24 141 Portland St. L 66 - 69 50% -5  10% 9 - 8 4 - 3 D+ -5 D+ -4 C+ F+ C- C -1 F+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 175 @Northern Colorado L 83 - 91 35% -2  28% 9 - 9 4 - 4 D+ -6 C +1 D+ F A D -6 D B+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 313 @Northern Arizona W 79 - 62 65% +15  99% 10 - 9 5 - 4 B +11 C+ +3 B+ F B A- +9 C+ C C
 Thu, Feb 5 160 @Montana St. L 66 - 73 33% -9  3% 10 - 10 5 - 5 C- -4 F -10 C- F D- B+ +6 A C F+
 Sat, Feb 7 165 @Montana L 68 - 73 34% +2  60% 10 - 11 5 - 6 C- -3 D- -7 C- F C- B +5 D+ C+ C+
 Thu, Feb 12 231 Weber St. W 80 - 75 69%
 Sat, Feb 14 250 Idaho St. W 76 - 70 72%
 Thu, Feb 19 141 @Portland St. L 67 - 73 28%
 Sat, Feb 21 255 @Sacramento St. W 80 - 79 51%
 Thu, Feb 26 313 Northern Arizona W 77 - 67 83%
 Sat, Feb 28 175 Northern Colorado W 77 - 75 58%
 Mon, Mar 2 228 @Eastern Washington L 76 - 77 45%
Totals 14 - 14 9 - 9 -2 C- -1 C D+ C+ C -1 C B- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D+ D+ B- C 35% 16% 49% C+ C D+ D+ D+ C+ C C+ C C C- D C C- 38% 26% 36% B C B+ C B- D+ D C D
1.07 55% 35% 36% 0 0 1.02 27% 1.0 .26 16% .30 73% .22 1.10 59% 42% 34% +1 -1 1.03 26% 1.0 .27 15% .36 73% .22
Nov
3		 Washington St. B C- A+ A- A- 35% 12% 54% B+ A D C D+ C- C+ C C+ C+ B- F A+ A 37% 16% 47% C- A- A+ F B+ F F C F
1.16 56% 67% 39% +7 +1 1.17 21% 1.1 .24 15% .31 74% .23 1.13 58% 75% 25% -1 +1 1.02 18% 1.3 .24 7% .51 74% .38
Nov
12		 San Diego C B- C D- C- 50% 11% 39% B+ C A+ F D F A+ B+ A+ D+ A- F F F 25% 27% 48% A- F B- D- C- B- B A+ B+
1.10 64% 40% 29% 0 +2 1.07 51% 0.6 .32 24% .49 76% .37 1.16 50% 54% 52% +15 -2 1.29 28% 1.1 .31 19% .20 64% .13
Nov
15		 UC San Diego D F F B- D- 24% 14% 62% C D D+ C+ C- C+ A- C B+ C+ D- A- B+ C 50% 15% 35% D+ C A+ F B+ C F F F
0.96 25% 29% 35% -8 0 0.86 26% 1.1 .29 16% .34 70% .24 1.07 67% 29% 29% +1 +2 1.06 13% 1.5 .19 16% .48 79% .37
Nov
26		 Cal St. Northridge C- C- F F F 26% 7% 67% B- F C+ A+ A C+ A+ A- A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ 36% 24% 40% A A+ A- D- B- D F D+ F
1.06 57% 25% 25% -10 +1 0.83 29% 1.6 .47 15% .43 81% .35 0.87 70% 23% 14% -11 -1 0.78 26% 1.1 .28 15% .40 68% .27
Nov
28		 Sam Houston St. C A A+ D+ B- 22% 10% 67% C+ B- D B- D+ A- D- F F F C- D+ F F 30% 26% 44% A F F F F F A+ B A+
1.07 73% 60% 30% +2 0 1.06 25% 1.1 .28 14% .27 47% .13 1.48 59% 40% 56% +15 -1 1.30 43% 1.3 .57 9% .16 67% .10
Dec
3		 North Dakota B+ B+ F A+ A 30% 7% 63% C A B B B+ C B A+ A+ A+ D- C+ C+ D 34% 19% 47% B D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D- A+ B-
1.30 69% 0% 48% +14 +1 1.33 39% 1.2 .48 20% .43 92% .40 0.84 63% 33% 32% -1 0 1.00 19% 0.0 .00 24% .38 55% .21
Dec
6		 South Dakota St. A- D+ A+ A A 27% 22% 51% D A- D B- D+ B A+ D+ A+ D D B- D- D 40% 34% 26% A C- A A- A F F D F
1.22 54% 64% 40% +9 -1 1.18 23% 1.1 .27 13% .49 72% .35 1.18 65% 35% 38% +4 -2 1.06 21% 0.9 .18 7% .52 73% .38
Dec
10		 Notre Dame C+ D+ F A+ B 33% 25% 41% C- B- D+ F D- A+ F A+ D- D- F B+ F F 29% 48% 23% A+ F+ D+ C+ C D+ A+ C A+
1.04 53% 15% 48% +1 -1 1.02 20% 0.7 .14 10% .18 90% .16 1.27 80% 32% 67% +15 -4 1.23 35% 0.9 .32 14% .19 70% .13
Dec
21		 Cal Poly F+ F F A+ D 19% 26% 54% F F+ F+ B D C- A+ C+ A+ B+ D+ F A+ A 33% 7% 60% C+ A A A+ A+ F+ F C- F
1.00 36% 20% 42% -2 -2 0.93 24% 1.2 .28 17% .41 75% .30 0.96 61% 50% 21% -10 +1 0.85 23% 0.5 .11 17% .57 79% .45
Dec
23		 Cal St. Bakersfield F D+ F+ F F 31% 24% 45% F+ F F+ C- F+ C+ F A D- B- F+ F C- F 27% 33% 40% B- F A+ F+ B C A+ A+ A+
0.96 53% 33% 27% -7 -1 0.86 29% 1.0 .29 17% .28 80% .22 0.98 64% 47% 33% +4 -2 1.06 23% 1.1 .26 20% .15 38% .06
Jan
3		 Eastern Washington B- F A+ A- B- 31% 13% 56% D+ B- B+ C B+ D A+ D+ A+ D- B- B+ C B+ 32% 36% 32% A+ A- F A- F B F A- F
1.21 43% 83% 40% +6 0 1.16 40% 1.2 .47 19% .51 72% .37 1.17 53% 32% 35% -3 -2 0.91 57% 0.9 .52 22% .46 68% .31
Jan
8		 Montana D+ F D+ F F 52% 12% 36% A F A- C+ B+ A A+ D A+ D D+ F B D+ 33% 22% 45% B+ C- A F+ B+ D+ F F F
1.04 46% 33% 17% -16 +2 0.74 38% 1.1 .40 11% .47 66% .31 1.13 63% 64% 32% +6 -1 1.12 14% 1.3 .18 19% .39 86% .33
Jan
10		 Montana St. A+ A- C- A+ A+ 44% 14% 42% B- A+ C+ F D- A+ D B- D F F+ F F F 46% 28% 26% D+ F D+ A- C+ B- F F+ F
1.35 65% 38% 44% +10 +1 1.24 32% 0.7 .22 7% .22 79% .17 1.30 65% 57% 54% +16 0 1.34 32% 0.9 .28 18% .37 81% .30
Jan
15		 Idaho St. D- B B+ F F 38% 13% 49% C+ F F+ A+ A- B- A+ F A+ C- A+ F F F 39% 25% 36% A- F+ A+ A+ A+ F+ F F+ F
1.02 65% 50% 14% -11 +1 0.82 23% 2.0 .46 13% .54 65% .35 1.14 41% 64% 50% +9 -1 1.18 23% 0.6 .13 13% .43 80% .35
Jan
17		 Weber St. F+ D+ A+ F F 44% 13% 44% B- F+ F A+ C+ F A F+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 44% 16% 40% C+ A+ C- D+ D+ A F C- F
0.98 57% 50% 24% -5 +1 0.94 19% 1.9 .36 21% .43 65% .28 0.88 35% 14% 22% -21 +1 0.62 33% 1.1 .36 22% .66 72% .47
Jan
22		 Sacramento St. C+ A F A+ A+ 37% 8% 56% C+ A F+ F F C- D A+ C+ C C+ A- A+ A 52% 31% 17% D A- F C- F+ D- A- F C-
1.20 68% 0% 45% +10 +2 1.25 26% 0.9 .23 17% .27 88% .23 1.06 53% 28% 10% -12 0 0.78 35% 1.2 .42 13% .27 100% .27
Jan
24		 Portland St. D+ C F C- C 47% 11% 42% B+ C+ D+ F F+ C- A F+ B C B F F D- 66% 12% 22% F F+ A+ A+ A+ F B- C B-
0.98 57% 20% 32% -4 +2 0.98 26% 0.7 .17 19% .46 68% .31 1.03 52% 50% 55% +4 +3 1.16 13% 0.0 .00 15% .28 69% .19
Jan
29		 Northern Colorado C F B- B D 38% 13% 50% C+ D+ D F F A A- A+ A+ D D A- F D 50% 19% 31% D D A+ D B+ D F B F
1.09 38% 43% 36% -5 +1 0.93 21% 0.8 .17 8% .40 86% .34 1.20 65% 30% 44% +7 +1 1.17 19% 1.2 .22 14% .51 70% .35
Jan
31		 Northern Arizona C+ A+ B B- B+ 43% 13% 44% C+ B+ F D+ F B F B F A- B- F B C+ 40% 27% 33% C+ C+ B F+ C C F+ A- D+
1.21 74% 43% 38% +10 +1 1.24 18% 1.0 .18 14% .16 78% .12 0.95 53% 46% 31% -1 -1 0.98 20% 1.1 .23 17% .33 61% .20
Feb
5		 Montana St. F D+ A+ F D+ 57% 16% 28% B+ C- F F F D- F A+ F B+ D+ A- A+ A 35% 44% 21% A+ A A+ F C F+ F F F
0.91 52% 56% 25% -5 +2 0.97 21% 0.6 .12 19% .15 89% .14 1.00 59% 33% 20% -6 -3 0.83 13% 2.3 .30 12% .47 87% .41
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Montana D- F+ F B+ D+ 35% 18% 47% C+ C- D F F C- F F F B B F F D 31% 20% 49% B+ D+ A- F C+ C+ D- A+ B-
0.94 50% 20% 37% -4 0 0.95 25% 0.6 .16 17% .20 58% .12 1.01 53% 50% 42% +7 -1 1.14 17% 1.4 .23 21% .35 60% .21



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.6 1.4 4.6 2nd
3rd 0.8 7.8 6.4 0.7 15.7 3rd
4th 0.3 9.9 13.8 2.4 0.0 26.4 4th
5th 0.0 4.0 14.1 2.2 20.4 5th
6th 0.8 10.1 3.8 0.0 14.6 6th
7th 0.1 4.0 5.7 0.2 10.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 4.6 0.7 6.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 0.2 1.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.3 2.3 9.6 20.9 28.8 24.4 11.4 2.3 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 9.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 2.3% 16.8% 16.8% 13.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.9
11-7 11.4% 15.6% 15.6% 13.9 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.3 9.7
10-8 24.4% 12.2% 12.2% 14.6 0.1 1.1 1.7 0.0 21.4
9-9 28.8% 8.5% 8.5% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.9 0.3 26.4
8-10 20.9% 5.2% 5.2% 15.4 0.0 0.7 0.4 19.8
7-11 9.6% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4 9.2
6-12 2.3% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.1 2.2
5-13 0.3% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 14.7 90.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 13.1 17.1 55.3 27.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%
Lose Out 0.1%