Idaho
Big Sky
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.9 #188
Expected Predictive Rating -0.8 #178
Pace 66.2 #251
Improvement -0.7 #220

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #165 C C- C+ C+ C
Defense #236 C- B D+ D+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #303 1.11 #236 -3.4 #299
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #270 0.70 #265 -2.0 #284
Three Pointers 50% #30 1.07 #110 +5.7 #26
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #169 +0.2 #168
Freethrows 0.31 #151 73% #173 0.23 #150
Second Chance 29.0% #231 1.03 #207 0.30 #223
Turnovers 15.5% #119
Total Offense -0.1 #165

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #214 1.19 #223 -0.1 #178
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #41 0.85 #308 -3.3 #355
Three Pointers 36% #308 1.03 #211 +2.2 #107
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #217 -1.2 #217
Freethrows 0.33 #266 74% #288 0.24 #283
Second Chance 26.5% #48 1.00 #119 0.27 #56
Turnovers 14.9% #282
Total Defense -1.9 #236

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.5% #160 -1.5% #63
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.1% #177 4.0% #258
Possession Length 17.9 #230 17.6 #216
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #280 0.17 #174
Improvement -1.5 #261 +0.8 #142

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.9% 13.4% 9.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.4 14.8
.500 or above 68.4% 83.5% 58.2%
.500 or above in Conference 77.2% 90.1% 68.5%
Conference Champion 2.4% 4.4% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.1% 1.1%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round10.8% 13.4% 9.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Colorado (Away) - 40.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 35 - 75 - 9
Quad 410 - 516 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 138 @Washington St. W 83 - 81 27% +9  1 - 0 +6 +8 A- D+ C- -2 B+ B F
 Wed, Nov 12 211 @San Diego L 74 - 78 43% -5  1 - 1 -4 +4 C D F+ -8 F C B
 Sat, Nov 15 112 @UC San Diego L 67 - 75 21% +3  1 - 2 -2 -2 D C- C +1 C A- C+
 Wed, Nov 26 219 Cal St. Northridge W 78 - 64 55% +4  2 - 2 +11 -0 F A C +10 A+ C+ D+
 Fri, Nov 28 119 Sam Houston St. L 68 - 94 32% -4  2 - 3 -23 +3 B- C- A- -29 F F F
 Wed, Dec 3 290 North Dakota W 90 - 58 79% +15  3 - 3 +22 +11 A- B+ C +11 D+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 170 @South Dakota St. W 84 - 81 35% -1  4 - 3 +5 +13 A- D+ A- -8 C A+ F
 Wed, Dec 10 84 @Notre Dame L 65 - 80 14% -5  4 - 4 -5 +5 B F+ A -12 F+ C D+
 Sun, Dec 21 289 @Cal Poly W 83 - 80 OT 59% +7  5 - 4 -1 -5 D D+ D +3 A- A+ D-
 Tue, Dec 23 300 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 63 - 64 63% -2  5 - 5 -6 -7 F F+ C +1 F B B-
 Sat, Jan 3 244 Eastern Washington W 84 - 81 70% +2  6 - 5 1 - 0 -4 +7 B- B D+ -11 B+ F A-
 Thu, Jan 8 160 Montana L 73 - 79 54% -9  6 - 6 1 - 1 -9 -1 F B A- -8 C- B C+
 Sat, Jan 10 157 Montana St. W 92 - 89 53% -9  7 - 6 2 - 1 +0 +20 A+ F A+ -20 F C+ B-
 Thu, Jan 15 225 @Idaho St. L 68 - 76 46% +2  7 - 7 2 - 2 -9 -4 F A- B- -6 D- A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 17 216 @Weber St. W 75 - 67 44% +9  8 - 7 3 - 2 +8 -5 D C F +13 A+ D+ A+
 Thu, Jan 22 293 Sacramento St. W 86 - 76 79% +7  9 - 7 4 - 2 -1 +5 A- F+ C- -6 B- D D-
 Sat, Jan 24 148 Portland St. L 66 - 69 52% -5  9 - 8 4 - 3 -5 -2 C+ D- D+ -4 F A+ F+
 Thu, Jan 29 194 @Northern Colorado L 75 - 78 40%
 Sat, Jan 31 311 @Northern Arizona W 74 - 70 65%
 Thu, Feb 5 157 @Montana St. L 69 - 74 31%
 Sat, Feb 7 160 @Montana L 72 - 77 32%
 Thu, Feb 12 216 Weber St. W 78 - 74 66%
 Sat, Feb 14 225 Idaho St. W 75 - 70 68%
 Thu, Feb 19 148 @Portland St. L 68 - 74 30%
 Sat, Feb 21 293 @Sacramento St. W 79 - 76 60%
 Thu, Feb 26 311 Northern Arizona W 77 - 67 82%
 Sat, Feb 28 194 Northern Colorado W 78 - 75 62%
 Mon, Mar 2 244 @Eastern Washington L 75 - 76 48%
Totals 15 - 13 10 - 8 -2 +0 C C- C+ -2 C- B D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.2 2.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 4.0 2.9 0.5 0.0 8.9 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.4 8.4 6.1 1.1 0.0 19.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 6.8 13.0 8.3 1.4 0.1 30.1 4th
5th 0.3 4.5 9.6 4.2 0.5 0.0 19.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.9 5.8 2.5 0.2 0.0 10.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.4 1.9 0.1 6.0 7th
8th 0.2 1.3 1.3 0.1 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.1 0.5 2.4 6.9 12.8 19.3 20.9 18.6 11.8 5.0 1.4 0.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 96.9% 0.2    0.1 0.0
14-4 61.5% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 19.6% 1.0    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0
12-6 2.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.4% 2.4 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.2% 34.4% 34.4% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 1.4% 29.7% 29.7% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.0
13-5 5.0% 21.3% 21.3% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 4.0
12-6 11.8% 17.5% 17.5% 14.1 0.3 1.2 0.6 9.7
11-7 18.6% 14.5% 14.5% 14.5 0.1 1.2 1.2 0.1 15.9
10-8 20.9% 10.6% 10.6% 14.9 0.5 1.6 0.2 18.7
9-9 19.3% 7.7% 7.7% 15.2 0.1 1.0 0.4 17.8
8-10 12.8% 5.1% 5.1% 15.6 0.3 0.4 12.2
7-11 6.9% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 6.7
6-12 2.4% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.1 2.3
5-13 0.5% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-14 0.1% 0.0 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.9% 10.9% 0.0% 14.6 89.1 0.0%