Idaho
Big Sky
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.0#309
Expected Predictive Rating-9.5#320
Pace67.0#216
Improvement-0.1#194

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#201
First Shot+1.4#124
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#326
Layup/Dunks-0.9#217
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#106
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#191
Freethrows+1.1#94
Improvement+0.5#97

Defense
Total Defense-7.2#349
First Shot-6.8#355
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#217
Layups/Dunks-4.5#339
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#323
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#160
Freethrows-0.8#249
Improvement-0.5#264
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.5% 1.7% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 55.1% 34.8% 62.7%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland St. (Away) - 27.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 33 - 63 - 8
Quad 46 - 129 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 318   @ Denver L 63-68 42%     0 - 1 -10.9 -15.9 +5.1
  Nov 13, 2022 310   @ Nebraska Omaha L 72-79 40%     0 - 2 -12.3 -3.2 -9.3
  Nov 16, 2022 308   Cal St. Bakersfield L 43-52 60%     0 - 3 -19.8 -24.2 +2.7
  Nov 19, 2022 211   Utah Tech L 71-81 38%     0 - 4 -14.8 +0.7 -16.1
  Nov 23, 2022 298   @ Cal Poly L 71-82 38%     0 - 5 -15.8 +9.1 -26.6
  Nov 25, 2022 208   @ Pacific W 84-81 20%     1 - 5 +3.9 +10.9 -7.0
  Dec 02, 2022 271   Northern Illinois W 84-47 52%     2 - 5 +28.6 +6.7 +21.6
  Dec 06, 2022 322   North Dakota W 76-66 64%     3 - 5 -1.9 -1.5 -0.1
  Dec 11, 2022 158   UC Riverside L 74-76 29%     3 - 6 -4.3 +5.1 -9.6
  Dec 19, 2022 328   @ Cal St. Northridge W 76-73 45%     4 - 6 -3.8 +9.6 -13.1
  Dec 21, 2022 165   @ Long Beach St. L 75-82 15%     4 - 7 -4.1 -0.1 -3.6
  Dec 29, 2022 120   @ Montana St. L 58-72 11%     4 - 8 0 - 1 -8.6 -6.1 -3.7
  Dec 31, 2022 189   @ Montana L 56-67 18%     4 - 9 0 - 2 -9.4 -11.1 +0.4
  Jan 05, 2023 219   Sacramento St. L 83-85 OT 39%     4 - 10 0 - 3 -7.2 +1.7 -8.8
  Jan 07, 2023 247   Portland St. L 58-74 47%     4 - 11 0 - 4 -23.2 -14.2 -10.3
  Jan 14, 2023 161   @ Eastern Washington L 74-95 15%     4 - 12 0 - 5 -18.0 -0.1 -17.6
  Jan 16, 2023 120   Montana St. W 74-70 22%     5 - 12 1 - 5 +4.0 -0.8 +4.6
  Jan 19, 2023 293   @ Northern Arizona W 88-83 36%     6 - 12 2 - 5 +0.7 +13.7 -12.8
  Jan 21, 2023 268   @ Northern Colorado L 67-73 31%     6 - 13 2 - 6 -8.8 -7.1 -2.0
  Jan 26, 2023 213   Weber St. L 65-73 38%     6 - 14 2 - 7 -12.9 -7.4 -5.7
  Jan 28, 2023 283   Idaho St. L 91-95 OT 55%     6 - 15 2 - 8 -13.3 +8.4 -21.5
  Feb 02, 2023 247   @ Portland St. L 74-80 27%    
  Feb 04, 2023 219   @ Sacramento St. L 64-72 21%    
  Feb 11, 2023 161   Eastern Washington L 73-79 31%    
  Feb 16, 2023 268   Northern Colorado W 78-77 52%    
  Feb 18, 2023 293   Northern Arizona W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 23, 2023 283   @ Idaho St. L 69-73 34%    
  Feb 25, 2023 213   @ Weber St. L 65-74 20%    
  Feb 27, 2023 189   Montana L 68-72 35%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.2 1.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.5 1.1 0.0 4.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 4.8 4.1 0.2 0.0 9.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 7.9 9.7 1.4 0.0 20.1 8th
9th 1.6 10.3 13.9 3.3 0.1 29.1 9th
10th 3.8 13.1 14.2 4.1 0.2 35.4 10th
Total 3.8 14.8 25.5 26.4 18.3 8.3 2.4 0.5 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.5% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
8-10 2.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.4
7-11 8.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 8.2
6-12 18.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 18.3
5-13 26.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 26.3
4-14 25.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 25.5
3-15 14.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.7
2-16 3.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.8
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 5.0% 16.0 5.0
Lose Out 3.8% 0.1% 16.0 0.1