Weber St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.7#287
Expected Predictive Rating-10.1#319
Pace66.6#235
Improvement+0.0#187

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#244
First Shot-0.1#178
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#306
Layup/Dunks-2.9#283
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#286
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#205
Freethrows+5.7#6
Improvement+0.0#160

Defense
Total Defense-4.3#297
First Shot-5.4#333
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#111
Layups/Dunks-1.7#247
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#307
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#302
Freethrows+1.8#85
Improvement+0.0#197
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.8% 4.1% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 3.3% 7.0% 1.5%
.500 or above in Conference 35.0% 43.1% 31.1%
Conference Champion 3.2% 5.0% 2.4%
Last Place in Conference 19.1% 13.9% 21.6%
First Four2.4% 3.3% 2.0%
First Round1.5% 2.4% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal Poly (Away) - 32.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 82 - 12
Quad 47 - 89 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 85   @ Washington L 52-69 8%     0 - 1 -7.7 -11.5 +3.0
  Nov 14, 2022 87   @ Colorado St. L 52-77 8%     0 - 2 -16.0 -15.0 -1.8
  Nov 21, 2022 165   UC Riverside L 65-72 26%     0 - 3 -7.0 -0.5 -7.2
  Nov 22, 2022 252   Abilene Christian W 77-67 41%     1 - 3 +5.7 +0.7 +4.8
  Nov 23, 2022 212   Wright St. L 65-87 34%     1 - 4 -24.3 -9.3 -14.9
  Nov 29, 2022 144   @ Tarleton St. L 65-75 15%     1 - 5 -5.4 -5.6 +0.4
  Dec 03, 2022 200   Utah Tech L 65-77 43%     1 - 6 -16.8 -3.2 -14.4
  Dec 07, 2022 177   @ California Baptist L 52-64 19%     1 - 7 -9.6 -9.0 -2.5
  Dec 16, 2022 258   @ Cal Poly L 63-68 32%    
  Dec 19, 2022 35   @ Utah St. L 65-86 2%    
  Dec 22, 2022 131   @ BYU L 67-79 12%    
  Dec 29, 2022 217   Northern Colorado L 77-78 46%    
  Dec 31, 2022 292   Northern Arizona W 72-69 63%    
  Jan 07, 2023 305   Idaho St. W 68-64 66%    
  Jan 12, 2023 186   @ Montana L 63-71 22%    
  Jan 14, 2023 172   @ Montana St. L 65-74 20%    
  Jan 19, 2023 183   Portland St. L 74-77 41%    
  Jan 21, 2023 257   Sacramento St. W 69-68 53%    
  Jan 26, 2023 298   @ Idaho L 70-72 43%    
  Jan 28, 2023 242   @ Eastern Washington L 68-74 31%    
  Feb 04, 2023 305   @ Idaho St. L 65-67 45%    
  Feb 06, 2023 217   @ Northern Colorado L 74-81 26%    
  Feb 09, 2023 172   Montana St. L 68-71 38%    
  Feb 11, 2023 186   Montana L 66-68 42%    
  Feb 16, 2023 257   @ Sacramento St. L 66-71 32%    
  Feb 18, 2023 183   @ Portland St. L 71-80 22%    
  Feb 23, 2023 242   Eastern Washington W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 25, 2023 298   Idaho W 73-69 65%    
  Feb 27, 2023 292   @ Northern Arizona L 69-72 41%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.2 2.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.8 3rd
4th 0.3 2.7 4.3 1.5 0.1 0.0 8.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.8 5.4 2.2 0.1 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.6 6.3 2.9 0.3 0.0 12.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.5 6.4 3.7 0.4 0.0 13.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.7 6.0 4.1 0.6 0.0 13.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.1 5.3 3.7 0.7 0.0 13.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 1.8 3.4 3.7 2.1 0.4 0.0 12.0 10th
Total 0.1 0.7 1.9 4.2 7.2 10.3 12.9 14.0 13.7 11.7 9.3 6.4 3.9 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 95.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
14-4 77.3% 0.8    0.5 0.3 0.0
13-5 47.5% 1.0    0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 18.8% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.2% 3.2 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 22.8% 22.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.4% 15.6% 15.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-4 1.0% 18.0% 18.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8
13-5 2.2% 12.4% 12.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.9
12-6 3.9% 9.4% 9.4% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.5
11-7 6.4% 7.2% 7.2% 16.0 0.5 5.9
10-8 9.3% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.4 8.9
9-9 11.7% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.4 11.3
8-10 13.7% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.3 13.5
7-11 14.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 13.8
6-12 12.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 12.8
5-13 10.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.3
4-14 7.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.2
3-15 4.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.2
2-16 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.9
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.7 97.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%