Weber St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.3#210
Expected Predictive Rating-4.5#241
Pace65.2#286
Improvement+1.6#79

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#189
First Shot-1.6#226
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#122
Layup/Dunks-1.2#223
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#224
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#134
Freethrows-1.1#249
Improvement+1.1#100

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#224
First Shot+2.6#102
After Offensive Rebounds-4.2#358
Layups/Dunks-2.2#253
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#1
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#155
Freethrows-0.8#241
Improvement+0.5#133
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.5% 13.3% 9.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 45.6% 56.1% 32.9%
.500 or above in Conference 70.6% 75.1% 65.2%
Conference Champion 13.4% 15.8% 10.4%
Last Place in Conference 4.3% 3.1% 5.7%
First Four2.0% 1.7% 2.4%
First Round10.7% 12.6% 8.4%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota (Away) - 55.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 53 - 10
Quad 412 - 615 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 76   @ Oregon St. L 48-76 12%     0 - 1 -17.6 -15.5 -4.6
  Nov 13, 2024 48   @ Nevada L 58-88 8%     0 - 2 -16.7 -3.0 -16.4
  Nov 17, 2024 162   @ Hawaii L 68-73 OT 32%     0 - 3 -2.5 -3.5 +1.1
  Nov 22, 2024 57   UC Irvine L 87-93 20%     0 - 4 +0.6 +14.0 -13.0
  Nov 29, 2024 267   Bowling Green W 73-70 64%     1 - 4 -3.0 -2.3 -0.7
  Nov 30, 2024 258   Pepperdine W 68-53 62%     2 - 4 +9.6 -6.0 +15.8
  Dec 04, 2024 187   North Dakota St. L 73-77 58%     2 - 5 -8.3 +3.3 -12.2
  Dec 07, 2024 289   @ North Dakota W 72-71 55%    
  Dec 13, 2024 291   @ Utah Tech W 71-70 56%    
  Dec 21, 2024 184   Utah Valley W 72-70 57%    
  Dec 29, 2024 22   @ Oregon L 61-81 3%    
  Jan 02, 2025 180   @ Northern Colorado L 73-77 35%    
  Jan 04, 2025 301   @ Northern Arizona W 71-69 57%    
  Jan 11, 2025 252   @ Idaho St. L 66-67 49%    
  Jan 16, 2025 190   Montana W 72-70 57%    
  Jan 18, 2025 122   Montana St. L 69-71 44%    
  Jan 23, 2025 256   @ Portland St. L 74-75 50%    
  Jan 25, 2025 320   @ Sacramento St. W 67-63 63%    
  Jan 30, 2025 265   Idaho W 74-67 72%    
  Feb 01, 2025 239   Eastern Washington W 78-73 67%    
  Feb 03, 2025 301   Northern Arizona W 74-66 76%    
  Feb 08, 2025 252   Idaho St. W 69-63 69%    
  Feb 13, 2025 122   @ Montana St. L 66-74 25%    
  Feb 15, 2025 190   @ Montana L 69-73 36%    
  Feb 20, 2025 320   Sacramento St. W 70-60 80%    
  Feb 22, 2025 256   Portland St. W 77-71 70%    
  Feb 27, 2025 239   @ Eastern Washington L 75-76 46%    
  Mar 01, 2025 265   @ Idaho W 71-70 52%    
  Mar 03, 2025 180   Northern Colorado W 76-74 56%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.9 3.9 2.9 1.6 0.5 0.1 13.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.7 4.8 1.9 0.4 0.0 15.7 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.2 6.5 4.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 15.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.0 6.1 3.4 0.7 0.0 13.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.8 3.1 0.4 0.0 12.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 4.7 2.9 0.4 9.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 3.5 2.5 0.4 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.6 2.0 0.3 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.2 5.5 7.8 10.3 12.5 13.1 12.9 11.8 8.7 6.0 3.4 1.6 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 98.9% 1.6    1.5 0.1
15-3 87.2% 2.9    2.3 0.6 0.0
14-4 65.2% 3.9    2.4 1.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 33.7% 2.9    1.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 10.8% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.4% 13.4 8.1 4.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 55.9% 55.9% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.5% 47.3% 47.3% 12.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.6% 34.4% 34.4% 13.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.1
15-3 3.4% 30.5% 30.5% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.3
14-4 6.0% 26.7% 26.7% 14.2 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1 4.4
13-5 8.7% 21.6% 21.6% 14.7 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.2 6.9
12-6 11.8% 16.2% 16.2% 15.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.4 9.9
11-7 12.9% 12.5% 12.5% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.7 11.3
10-8 13.1% 8.1% 8.1% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 12.1
9-9 12.5% 6.7% 6.7% 15.9 0.1 0.7 11.7
8-10 10.3% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4 9.9
7-11 7.8% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.2 7.6
6-12 5.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 5.4
5-13 3.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 3.1
4-14 1.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.7
3-15 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.7
2-16 0.2% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.5 4.1 3.6 88.5 0.0%