Weber St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.3#97
Expected Predictive Rating+13.0#40
Pace71.4#126
Improvement+0.3#148

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#87
First Shot+5.6#35
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#299
Layup/Dunks+0.4#151
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#75
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#54
Freethrows-1.1#245
Improvement+0.6#112

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#106
First Shot+0.4#156
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#88
Layups/Dunks-7.4#349
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#18
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#215
Freethrows+5.6#2
Improvement-0.3#207
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.9% 40.4% 30.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.9% 2.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.6 13.4
.500 or above 99.5% 99.6% 97.7%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 99.0% 95.1%
Conference Champion 56.9% 57.9% 40.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.9% 0.9% 0.0%
First Round39.3% 39.8% 30.7%
Second Round8.4% 8.7% 3.7%
Sweet Sixteen2.6% 2.7% 1.5%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Arizona (Home) - 94.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 12 - 3
Quad 37 - 38 - 5
Quad 416 - 224 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 15, 2021 194   @ Duquesne W 63-59 64%     1 - 0 +5.5 -10.3 +15.8
  Nov 18, 2021 116   Massachusetts W 88-73 58%     2 - 0 +18.2 +15.8 +3.1
  Nov 19, 2021 214   Ball St. W 85-74 76%     3 - 0 +8.8 +2.6 +5.3
  Nov 21, 2021 301   Green Bay W 68-58 88%     4 - 0 +2.3 -4.9 +7.9
  Nov 27, 2021 306   @ Dixie St. W 87-70 83%     5 - 0 +11.9 +5.1 +5.8
  Dec 02, 2021 317   Northern Arizona W 81-64 94%    
  Dec 04, 2021 269   Portland St. W 79-65 91%    
  Dec 08, 2021 60   @ Washington St. L 71-76 32%    
  Dec 15, 2021 46   Utah St. L 72-73 46%    
  Dec 18, 2021 20   BYU L 70-76 29%    
  Dec 23, 2021 129   Fresno St. W 71-65 70%    
  Dec 30, 2021 181   @ Montana St. W 76-73 62%    
  Jan 01, 2022 207   @ Montana W 72-68 65%    
  Jan 08, 2022 311   @ Idaho St. W 73-62 82%    
  Jan 13, 2022 351   Idaho W 87-64 98%    
  Jan 15, 2022 203   Eastern Washington W 82-72 82%    
  Jan 20, 2022 311   Idaho St. W 76-59 93%    
  Jan 24, 2022 140   @ Southern Utah W 76-75 52%    
  Jan 27, 2022 175   @ Northern Colorado W 76-73 61%    
  Jan 29, 2022 295   @ Sacramento St. W 77-67 80%    
  Feb 03, 2022 207   Montana W 75-65 81%    
  Feb 05, 2022 181   Montana St. W 79-70 79%    
  Feb 10, 2022 203   @ Eastern Washington W 79-75 64%    
  Feb 12, 2022 351   @ Idaho W 84-67 94%    
  Feb 17, 2022 295   Sacramento St. W 80-64 91%    
  Feb 19, 2022 175   Northern Colorado W 79-70 78%    
  Feb 24, 2022 269   @ Portland St. W 76-68 77%    
  Feb 26, 2022 317   @ Northern Arizona W 78-67 83%    
  Mar 05, 2022 140   Southern Utah W 78-72 71%    
Projected Record 23 - 6 16 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.0 4.6 10.7 14.1 13.7 9.3 3.2 56.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 4.9 7.2 4.9 1.9 0.3 20.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 3.2 3.6 2.1 0.5 0.0 10.5 3rd
4th 0.2 0.7 2.0 2.1 0.8 0.1 5.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 1.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 3.1 4.2 7.2 10.3 14.0 16.2 16.0 14.0 9.3 3.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 3.2    3.2
19-1 100.0% 9.3    9.2 0.1
18-2 98.1% 13.7    12.8 0.9
17-3 88.2% 14.1    11.3 2.7 0.1
16-4 66.5% 10.7    6.5 3.8 0.5 0.0
15-5 33.0% 4.6    1.7 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
14-6 10.0% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 56.9% 56.9 44.7 9.9 1.9 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 3.2% 77.8% 68.3% 9.5% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.7 29.9%
19-1 9.3% 65.0% 59.7% 5.3% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 1.5 2.5 1.0 0.1 3.2 13.3%
18-2 14.0% 56.7% 54.7% 2.0% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.0 3.3 2.8 0.7 0.0 6.1 4.4%
17-3 16.0% 46.0% 45.6% 0.4% 12.7 0.3 2.7 3.0 1.2 0.1 8.6 0.7%
16-4 16.2% 39.8% 39.8% 13.2 0.0 1.1 3.0 1.7 0.5 9.7
15-5 14.0% 33.1% 33.1% 13.6 0.6 1.4 2.0 0.5 0.1 9.3
14-6 10.3% 23.1% 23.1% 14.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.6 0.1 7.9
13-7 7.2% 20.3% 20.3% 14.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.0 5.7
12-8 4.2% 13.5% 13.5% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 3.6
11-9 3.1% 11.6% 11.6% 15.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.7
10-10 1.4% 7.7% 7.7% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3
9-11 0.8% 13.6% 13.6% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
8-12 0.3% 0.3
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 39.9% 38.8% 1.1% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.8 3.2 10.8 12.3 7.7 2.8 0.4 60.1 1.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 5.1 10.4 18.9 40.6 19.8 0.9 9.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 6.0 50.0 45.5 4.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 8.5 47.6 52.4