Portland St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +1.1 141
Expected Predictive Rating +3.0 114
Pace 69.4 158
Improvement +2.6 80

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ #266 C C- D C- B-
Defense B- #60 B B- B- F+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 35 56% 226 +2.5 101
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 227 35% 273 -1.5 259
Three Pointers 38% 252 34% 153 -1.3 234
1st FG Attempt 1.01 186 -0.3 186
Second Chance 31.6% 151 0.92 314 0.29 222
Turnovers 19.5% 322
Freethrows 0.31 189 69% 285 0.21 216
Total Offense -3.5 266

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 93 55% 106 -0.9 204
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 181 34% 46 +0.8 123
Three Pointers 37% 283 30% 35 +4.0 36
1st FG Attempt 0.94 57 +3.9 57
Second Chance 29.3% 125 0.95 73 0.28 86
Turnovers 18.9% 70
Freethrows 0.38 341 74% 291 0.28 352
Total Defense +4.6 60

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.7 82 +0.3 216
Shot Type Accuracy -1.0 207 -4.1 44
Possession Length 18.2 267 16.4 38
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 220 0.20 263
Improvement -0.3 #199 +2.9 #44

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.1% 29.0% 25.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.5 13.9
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 92.9% 96.1% 83.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round28.1% 29.0% 25.0%
Second Round1.2% 1.4% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Arizona (Away) - 75.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 38 - 38 - 7
Quad 410 - 319 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 78 @Stanford L 79 - 89 19% -6  7% 0 - 1 C +0 C- -2 A+ F F B- +3 C+ C- A+
 Wed, Nov 12 106 @San Francisco L 70 - 80 28% -12  0% 0 - 2 C- -3 C- -1 D B+ F C- -2 D+ C+ C
 Mon, Nov 17 325 Cal St. Bakersfield W 93 - 80 90% +7  99% 1 - 2 C -0 B +7 A+ A D- D- -8 C- F B+
 Tue, Nov 25 205 @Utah Tech W 68 - 63 53% +1  48% 2 - 2 B- +5 F+ -9 D- D F A+ +14 B A+ B-
 Wed, Dec 3 276 @South Dakota W 77 - 71 68% +5  80% 3 - 2 C+ +2 F+ -8 D+ F C- A +10 A+ F A
 Sat, Dec 6 248 Nebraska Omaha L 55 - 60 80% -2  17% 3 - 3 D- -13 F -14 F C F+ C -0 A F B-
 Wed, Dec 17 70 @Colorado L 73 - 84 18% -1  30% 3 - 4 C -0 C- -1 D+ A+ F+ C+ +1 B B B+
 Sat, Dec 20 182 @Tulane L 61 - 63 48% -3  13% 3 - 5 C -0 F+ -9 F C D+ A- +9 A+ C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 1 231 @Weber St. W 95 - 90 OT 58% +0  46% 4 - 5 1 - 0 C+ +4 C +1 D+ C- B C+ +2 B B F
 Sat, Jan 3 252 @Idaho St. W 93 - 87 OT 62% -5  22% 5 - 5 2 - 0 C+ +4 A- +9 A+ F A- D -6 F+ B+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 257 Sacramento St. W 96 - 69 82% +14  82% 6 - 5 3 - 0 A +19 A +12 A+ F C+ B+ +6 A- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 176 Northern Colorado W 76 - 73 69% -1  35% 7 - 5 4 - 0 C -1 D -5 C+ A F B- +4 D- A+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 312 Northern Arizona W 63 - 52 89% +5  70% 8 - 5 5 - 0 C -1 F -12 F+ C- D- A+ +13 B- A+ A
 Thu, Jan 22 227 @Eastern Washington W 65 - 61 57% +5  95% 9 - 5 6 - 0 C+ +3 F -10 F B+ D A+ +14 A B- C+
 Sat, Jan 24 189 @Idaho W 69 - 66 50% +5  84% 10 - 5 7 - 0 C+ +4 D+ -3 B+ F C+ B+ +7 C+ A- B+
 Thu, Jan 29 168 Montana L 60 - 64 68% -5  9% 10 - 6 7 - 1 D+ -8 F -15 F C+ F B+ +7 C+ A+ A
 Sat, Jan 31 160 Montana St. W 63 - 54 67% +3  65% 11 - 6 8 - 1 B- +6 D -5 A+ F F A +12 A+ D+ A
 Mon, Feb 2 252 Idaho St. W 88 - 65 81% +13  95% 12 - 6 9 - 1 A- +15 A+ +17 A- B A+ C+ +0 A- F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 257 @Sacramento St. W 74 - 73 63% -1  35% 13 - 6 10 - 1 C -1 D+ -2 F A B- C+ +1 B- A F+
 Thu, Feb 12 312 @Northern Arizona W 73 - 66 75%
 Sat, Feb 14 176 @Northern Colorado L 73 - 74 47%
 Thu, Feb 19 189 Idaho W 73 - 67 71%
 Sat, Feb 21 227 Eastern Washington W 77 - 69 76%
 Thu, Feb 26 160 @Montana St. L 67 - 69 44%
 Sat, Feb 28 168 @Montana L 71 - 72 46%
 Mon, Mar 2 231 Weber St. W 78 - 70 77%
Totals 17 - 9 14 - 4 +1 D+ -3 C C- D B- +5 B B- B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C- D+ C+ C- 44% 18% 38% B- C C+ D C- D C D+ C- B- C+ B B+ B 42% 21% 37% C- B C+ B- B- B- F+ D+ F+
1.04 56% 35% 34% -1 +1 1.01 32% 0.9 .29 20% .31 69% .21 1.02 55% 34% 30% -4 0 0.94 29% 0.9 .28 19% .38 74% .23
Nov
4		 Stanford C- B- D- A+ A+ 33% 19% 48% B- A+ D+ F F F F+ C D- B- C+ A+ C- B 58% 8% 34% D- C+ B+ F C- A+ F F F
0.98 61% 30% 50% +11 0 1.24 24% 0.0 .00 26% .27 75% .20 1.11 55% 25% 35% -2 +3 1.04 31% 1.2 .38 21% .57 81% .46
Nov
12		 San Francisco C- F F C- F+ 44% 15% 41% B+ D A- C+ B+ F D+ D+ D C- C A+ F C- 40% 9% 51% F+ D+ F A+ C+ C F C- F
1.02 46% 25% 32% -9 +1 0.87 35% 1.1 .37 19% .23 69% .16 1.17 58% 0% 42% +3 +2 1.11 41% 0.9 .35 16% .43 72% .31
Nov
17		 Cal St. Bakersfield B B+ F A+ A+ 55% 11% 34% A- A+ C A+ A D- A- F+ B- D- A+ D+ F+ C- 34% 32% 34% C C- B- F F B+ F D- F
1.26 65% 20% 56% +14 +2 1.34 37% 1.4 .52 20% .44 65% .29 1.08 38% 40% 38% -4 -2 0.89 30% 1.9 .58 23% .51 79% .40
Nov
25		 Utah Tech F+ C F D- D- 43% 19% 38% C- D- A- F D F A+ C- A+ A+ D B- A+ B 43% 21% 36% C+ B A+ A A+ B- A- F B
0.96 60% 22% 28% -6 0 0.91 41% 0.6 .26 24% .44 71% .31 0.89 67% 33% 25% -2 0 0.98 10% 0.7 .06 18% .17 80% .14
Dec
3		 South Dakota F+ C- F B+ D- 75% 9% 15% A D+ F+ F F C- A+ D- A A A+ B- A+ A+ 62% 12% 26% F A+ D F F A F A F
1.00 58% 0% 38% -3 +4 1.04 25% 0.8 .19 17% .41 69% .28 0.93 39% 33% 23% -17 +3 0.74 33% 1.3 .43 22% .57 68% .38
Dec
6		 Nebraska Omaha F A- A+ F F 33% 7% 60% B- F C C C F+ B F D- C B+ A+ B- A+ 45% 15% 40% F+ A F F F B- D F F
0.95 71% 67% 15% -10 +1 0.84 29% 1.0 .29 17% .36 53% .19 1.04 50% 0% 31% -11 +1 0.83 37% 1.4 .50 19% .34 88% .30
Dec
17		 Colorado C- C- D+ F+ D 44% 28% 28% C D+ C+ A+ A+ F+ B+ C- B C+ C F A B 44% 21% 35% C- B C- A B B+ F F F
1.02 55% 36% 29% -4 -1 0.92 27% 1.8 .48 20% .35 70% .24 1.18 61% 55% 28% +2 0 1.06 34% 0.8 .28 17% .44 85% .37
Dec
20		 Tulane F+ F A+ F F 40% 21% 38% C F C- B- C D+ C- F D A- A F A+ A+ 50% 18% 32% D- A+ F A+ C+ A+ F D- F
0.93 42% 60% 22% -8 0 0.85 32% 1.1 .35 20% .31 63% .19 0.96 45% 50% 14% -13 +1 0.77 36% 0.6 .22 23% .59 83% .50
Jan
1		 Weber St. C F+ F A+ D 45% 16% 39% C+ D+ B- D- C- B A- F+ B- C+ C- A A B 42% 14% 44% C+ B B+ B- B F F C+ F
1.13 52% 10% 44% -1 +1 1.02 33% 1.0 .33 14% .40 66% .26 1.07 58% 25% 28% -6 +1 0.93 27% 0.9 .25 12% .56 69% .39
Jan
3		 Idaho St. A- A+ A+ C+ A+ 45% 17% 38% B- A+ F+ F F A- A- A A+ D D+ C F F+ 35% 10% 56% D+ F+ C- A+ B+ F+ F A- F
1.26 75% 67% 35% +13 +1 1.30 22% 0.5 .11 11% .40 85% .33 1.18 61% 40% 41% +8 +1 1.19 33% 0.7 .24 14% .47 67% .31
Jan
10		 Sacramento St. A A A+ A+ A+ 50% 9% 41% B A+ A- F F C+ C+ A- B B+ C- C- A+ A- 29% 38% 33% A A- A+ A+ A+ F F C- F
1.33 70% 60% 45% +15 +2 1.37 42% 0.5 .23 15% .33 80% .26 0.95 56% 38% 17% -9 -3 0.78 17% 0.6 .10 7% .42 79% .33
Jan
15		 Northern Colorado D C+ A F+ B- 43% 26% 32% D+ C+ A C+ A F A+ D- A+ B- F A+ F F+ 26% 16% 58% B- D- A+ A+ A+ B F B+ D-
1.05 60% 50% 27% 0 0 1.02 37% 1.2 .43 24% .51 71% .36 1.01 77% 25% 41% +9 0 1.20 13% 0.0 .00 19% .33 68% .22
Jan
17		 Northern Arizona F F+ F D+ F 47% 9% 45% B+ F+ B- D- C- D- A F B A+ A- C F+ B- 40% 26% 35% C B- A+ A+ A+ A D C D+
1.02 50% 25% 33% -5 +2 0.96 37% 0.9 .34 19% .38 63% .24 0.84 47% 36% 40% -2 -1 0.98 14% 0.0 .00 21% .31 67% .21
Jan
22		 Eastern Washington F C F F F 56% 19% 25% B- F D A+ B+ D F A D- A+ A- A- B+ A+ 42% 29% 29% B- A A- F+ B- C+ F C F
0.96 59% 22% 17% -9 +2 0.88 29% 1.6 .46 19% .24 85% .20 0.90 47% 31% 31% -8 -1 0.84 24% 1.3 .30 19% .42 74% .31
Jan
24		 Idaho D+ D- A A+ B- 66% 12% 22% A+ B+ F F F C+ F+ D F B+ C A+ B B 47% 11% 42% F C+ C+ A+ A- B+ F B+ F
1.03 52% 50% 55% +4 +3 1.16 13% 0.0 .00 15% .28 69% .19 0.98 57% 20% 32% -4 +2 0.98 26% 0.7 .17 19% .46 68% .31
Jan
29		 Montana F F+ C F F 40% 20% 40% C+ F C B- C+ F A+ C A+ B+ F D+ A+ C 44% 29% 27% A- C+ B- A+ A+ A F D+ F
0.88 50% 38% 19% -12 0 0.78 30% 1.1 .33 25% .58 70% .41 0.93 78% 42% 18% +3 -1 1.07 20% 0.4 .08 25% .48 80% .39
Jan
31		 Montana St. D B+ A A+ A+ 44% 23% 33% C- A+ B+ F F F C- F D A A- D A+ A+ 24% 37% 39% A+ A+ F B D+ A C- F D
1.03 63% 50% 43% +9 0 1.21 37% 0.5 .17 23% .25 67% .17 0.88 45% 47% 17% -10 -3 0.76 36% 0.9 .33 21% .27 85% .23
Feb
2		 Idaho St. A+ D- A+ A+ A- 54% 20% 26% B- A- C A B A+ C+ C+ C+ C+ C- A+ B+ A 51% 14% 35% D- A- F D F A+ F C- F
1.42 52% 60% 54% +9 +1 1.22 31% 1.3 .41 6% .33 79% .26 1.05 58% 0% 31% -7 +2 0.92 47% 1.1 .50 24% .58 74% .43
Feb
7		 Sacramento St. D+ F D F F 47% 16% 37% C F A C+ A B- A+ B- A+ C+ A+ A+ F B- 33% 26% 41% C B- A- A- A F+ F D- F
1.08 42% 38% 21% -15 +1 0.75 44% 1.2 .51 15% .45 77% .34 1.07 40% 17% 42% -6 -1 0.87 21% 1.0 .21 12% .50 83% .41



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 3.2 14.5 27.1 27.6 16.1 4.4 92.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.0 2.1 5.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 0.4 1.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.2 1.7 6.5 16.6 27.1 27.6 16.1 4.4 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 4.4    4.4
16-2 100.0% 16.1    16.1
15-3 100.0% 27.6    27.6
14-4 100.0% 27.1    24.3 2.8
13-5 87.4% 14.5    8.3 5.6 0.6
12-6 48.8% 3.2    0.7 1.7 0.7 0.1
11-7 10.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 92.9% 92.9 81.3 10.2 1.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 4.4% 41.1% 41.1% 12.5 0.0 0.9 0.8 0.1 2.6
16-2 16.1% 34.5% 34.5% 13.2 0.0 0.6 3.2 1.7 0.1 10.6
15-3 27.6% 30.8% 30.8% 13.6 0.4 3.4 4.4 0.4 19.1
14-4 27.1% 27.0% 27.0% 13.9 0.1 1.8 4.3 1.1 19.8
13-5 16.6% 21.6% 21.6% 14.1 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.0 0.0 13.0
12-6 6.5% 17.4% 17.4% 14.3 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 5.4
11-7 1.7% 11.4% 11.4% 14.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.5
10-8 0.2% 0.2
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 28.1% 28.1% 0.0% 13.6 72.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.8% 100.0% 12.5 2.2 48.2 45.7 3.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%