Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#148
Expected Predictive Rating+3.3#134
Pace70.8#153
Improvement+0.3#141

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#152
First Shot+1.1#141
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#218
Layup/Dunks+0.2#166
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#197
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#186
Freethrows+1.5#102
Improvement+0.2#167

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#168
First Shot+1.3#129
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#283
Layups/Dunks-4.4#326
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#276
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#20
Freethrows+1.1#122
Improvement+0.2#167
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.6% 19.8% 14.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.6 14.1
.500 or above 83.6% 90.0% 74.3%
.500 or above in Conference 78.2% 82.1% 72.6%
Conference Champion 25.2% 28.7% 20.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.4% 2.6% 4.4%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round17.5% 19.8% 14.2%
Second Round1.3% 1.6% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nebraska Omaha (Away) - 58.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 34 - 55 - 8
Quad 414 - 418 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 15 284 @Pepperdine W 88-81 OT 65%     1 - 0 +3.3 +1.5 +0.7
  Fri, Nov 21 160 St. Thomas L 72-73 52%     1 - 1 -1.4 -3.7 +2.3
  Sat, Nov 22 270 @Portland W 86-80 OT 62%     2 - 1 +3.0 +0.7 +1.5
  Sun, Nov 23 300 Cal St. Fullerton W 97-93 77%     3 - 1 -3.5 +7.1 -11.2
  Wed, Nov 26 329 @Air Force W 71-53 74%     4 - 1 +11.4 +6.9 +7.1
  Wed, Dec 3 252 @Nebraska Omaha W 79-77 59%    
  Sat, Dec 6 266 South Dakota W 86-77 80%    
  Tue, Dec 16 23 @Texas Tech L 66-84 5%    
  Sat, Dec 20 299 Denver W 82-71 84%    
  Sun, Dec 28 61 @Colorado L 71-83 14%    
  Thu, Jan 1 158 @Montana St. L 70-73 41%    
  Sat, Jan 3 183 @Montana L 78-79 46%    
  Thu, Jan 8 177 Idaho St. W 73-69 66%    
  Sat, Jan 10 211 Weber St. W 79-73 72%    
  Thu, Jan 15 159 @Portland St. L 73-76 41%    
  Sat, Jan 17 275 @Sacramento St. W 78-74 62%    
  Mon, Jan 19 158 Montana St. W 73-70 62%    
  Sat, Jan 24 248 @Northern Arizona W 75-73 57%    
  Thu, Jan 29 210 Idaho W 77-71 72%    
  Sat, Jan 31 244 Eastern Washington W 81-73 76%    
  Thu, Feb 5 211 @Weber St. W 76-75 52%    
  Sat, Feb 7 177 @Idaho St. L 70-72 45%    
  Thu, Feb 12 275 Sacramento St. W 81-71 80%    
  Sat, Feb 14 159 Portland St. W 76-73 62%    
  Sat, Feb 21 248 Northern Arizona W 78-70 76%    
  Thu, Feb 26 244 @Eastern Washington W 78-76 56%    
  Sat, Feb 28 210 @Idaho W 75-74 52%    
  Mon, Mar 2 183 Montana W 81-76 66%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.4 6.5 5.6 3.1 1.4 0.3 25.2 1st
2nd 0.5 3.4 6.2 5.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 17.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.3 6.0 3.3 0.8 0.1 13.8 3rd
4th 0.2 2.5 5.5 2.8 0.4 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 4.6 2.5 0.3 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.6 2.6 0.3 7.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.6 2.5 0.3 0.0 6.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.9 0.3 0.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.8 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.2 3.8 5.9 8.2 10.3 12.1 13.0 12.2 11.2 8.6 6.0 3.2 1.4 0.3 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.4    1.4 0.0
16-2 99.0% 3.1    3.0 0.1
15-3 94.2% 5.6    4.8 0.8 0.0
14-4 76.0% 6.5    4.6 1.8 0.1
13-5 48.5% 5.4    2.5 2.2 0.7 0.1
12-6 19.0% 2.3    0.5 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-7 3.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 25.2% 25.2 17.1 6.1 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 62.4% 62.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.4% 47.9% 47.9% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8
16-2 3.2% 45.4% 45.4% 12.7 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.7
15-3 6.0% 38.1% 38.1% 13.1 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.6 0.1 3.7
14-4 8.6% 31.5% 31.5% 13.5 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.9
13-5 11.2% 25.7% 25.7% 13.7 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.4 0.4 0.0 8.3
12-6 12.2% 20.9% 20.9% 14.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.6 0.0 9.6
11-7 13.0% 14.6% 14.6% 14.3 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.1 11.1
10-8 12.1% 11.7% 11.7% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 10.7
9-9 10.3% 8.7% 8.7% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 9.4
8-10 8.2% 5.3% 5.3% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 7.8
7-11 5.9% 2.4% 2.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 5.7
6-12 3.8% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.7
5-13 2.2% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 2.1
4-14 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.1
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 17.6% 17.6% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.1 6.3 3.3 0.8 82.4 0.0%