Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#180
Expected Predictive Rating+1.8#143
Pace73.1#73
Improvement-3.4#349

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#129
First Shot+3.7#83
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#285
Layup/Dunks+7.4#8
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#214
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#164
Freethrows-3.3#334
Improvement+0.0#183

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#267
First Shot-4.4#317
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#77
Layups/Dunks-7.0#353
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#242
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#46
Freethrows-1.1#261
Improvement-3.4#359
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.0% 19.0% 14.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.0 14.5
.500 or above 72.8% 84.2% 65.3%
.500 or above in Conference 80.3% 85.2% 77.2%
Conference Champion 20.3% 25.1% 17.2%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 1.5% 2.9%
First Four0.8% 0.5% 1.1%
First Round15.6% 18.8% 13.5%
Second Round0.9% 1.3% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota St. (Away) - 39.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 34 - 55 - 8
Quad 412 - 517 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 85   @ Colorado L 88-90 2OT 17%     0 - 1 +7.3 +3.0 +4.7
  Nov 14, 2024 120   South Dakota St. W 78-69 36%     1 - 1 +11.5 +5.6 +5.8
  Nov 18, 2024 74   @ Washington St. L 69-83 14%     1 - 2 -3.5 +1.8 -5.1
  Nov 20, 2024 185   @ California Baptist W 79-68 39%     2 - 2 +12.8 +2.9 +9.5
  Nov 23, 2024 357   Prairie View W 114-98 93%     3 - 2 -1.2 +14.2 -17.8
  Nov 29, 2024 24   @ Texas Tech L 64-89 6%     3 - 3 -8.0 -1.8 -6.2
  Dec 04, 2024 133   St. Thomas L 75-87 52%     3 - 4 -13.5 +5.0 -19.2
  Dec 07, 2024 187   @ North Dakota St. L 75-78 39%    
  Dec 16, 2024 286   Air Force W 75-67 79%    
  Dec 21, 2024 321   @ Denver W 81-76 68%    
  Jan 02, 2025 210   Weber St. W 77-73 65%    
  Jan 04, 2025 252   Idaho St. W 75-68 74%    
  Jan 09, 2025 122   @ Montana St. L 73-79 28%    
  Jan 11, 2025 190   @ Montana L 76-79 40%    
  Jan 16, 2025 256   Portland St. W 84-77 74%    
  Jan 18, 2025 320   Sacramento St. W 76-65 84%    
  Jan 23, 2025 265   @ Idaho W 77-75 57%    
  Jan 25, 2025 239   @ Eastern Washington W 82-81 51%    
  Feb 01, 2025 301   Northern Arizona W 81-72 80%    
  Feb 03, 2025 252   @ Idaho St. W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 06, 2025 190   Montana W 79-76 61%    
  Feb 08, 2025 122   Montana St. L 76-77 49%    
  Feb 13, 2025 320   @ Sacramento St. W 73-68 68%    
  Feb 15, 2025 256   @ Portland St. W 81-80 54%    
  Feb 20, 2025 239   Eastern Washington W 85-79 71%    
  Feb 22, 2025 265   Idaho W 80-72 76%    
  Mar 01, 2025 301   @ Northern Arizona W 78-75 61%    
  Mar 03, 2025 210   @ Weber St. L 74-76 44%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.6 4.0 5.5 4.9 2.8 1.1 0.2 20.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.8 6.9 6.0 2.9 0.8 0.1 19.8 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.1 6.7 4.5 1.3 0.1 16.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.8 5.9 3.5 0.6 0.0 13.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 4.8 3.0 0.4 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.5 2.5 0.3 0.0 7.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 2.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 5.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 3.3 5.3 8.0 10.7 12.6 13.6 13.6 11.4 8.5 5.7 2.8 1.1 0.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
16-2 97.8% 2.8    2.6 0.2
15-3 86.7% 4.9    3.8 1.1 0.0
14-4 64.3% 5.5    3.2 2.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 35.3% 4.0    1.5 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 11.7% 1.6    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0
11-7 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.3% 20.3 12.8 5.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 51.2% 51.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.1% 54.1% 54.1% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5
16-2 2.8% 41.8% 41.8% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.6
15-3 5.7% 33.9% 33.9% 13.5 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.1 3.8
14-4 8.5% 31.8% 31.8% 13.9 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.5 0.0 5.8
13-5 11.4% 21.8% 21.8% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.9 0.1 8.9
12-6 13.6% 17.3% 17.3% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 0.2 11.3
11-7 13.6% 13.0% 13.0% 14.9 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.3 11.8
10-8 12.6% 11.4% 11.4% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.5 11.2
9-9 10.7% 7.7% 7.7% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 9.9
8-10 8.0% 4.1% 4.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 7.7
7-11 5.3% 2.4% 2.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.2
6-12 3.3% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 3.2
5-13 1.7% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.1 1.7
4-14 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 8.3% 8.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.1 4.7 5.1 2.1 84.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.3 3.8 61.5 34.6