Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.3 #194
Expected Predictive Rating -3.4 #221
Pace 70.8 #126
Improvement -4.5 #343

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #144 B- C- C- D C
Defense #268 C C F+ D C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #231 1.25 #84 +0.6 #156
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #213 0.79 #129 -0.4 #194
Three Pointers 45% #106 1.09 #78 +3.7 #62
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #72 +3.9 #72
Freethrows 0.24 #332 74% #128 0.18 #314
Second Chance 28.5% #244 1.06 #158 0.30 #214
Turnovers 17.2% #234
Total Offense +0.7 #144

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #37 1.19 #225 -4.1 #314
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #173 0.81 #266 -0.5 #221
Three Pointers 35% #330 0.91 #48 +5.0 #19
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #171 +0.4 #169
Freethrows 0.34 #298 75% #308 0.25 #308
Second Chance 26.6% #52 1.19 #332 0.32 #177
Turnovers 12.4% #352
Total Defense -3.0 #268

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #176 0.8% #244
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.2% #70 -1.5% #157
Possession Length 17.5 #184 17.2 #161
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #343 0.15 #98
Improvement -1.3 #250 -3.3 #339

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.8% 7.9% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.7 15.3
.500 or above 48.1% 59.9% 30.5%
.500 or above in Conference 13.7% 20.0% 4.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.4% 7.1% 20.1%
First Four0.9% 0.6% 1.4%
First Round6.4% 7.6% 4.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho (Home) - 59.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 33 - 74 - 9
Quad 410 - 715 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 15 281 @Pepperdine W 88 - 81 OT 56% +5  1 - 0 +3 +2 C+ C F -0 B- B+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 126 St. Thomas L 72 - 73 34% +5  1 - 1 +1 -3 C B F +4 A+ F C
 Sat, Nov 22 205 @Portland W 86 - 80 OT 40% +2  2 - 1 +6 +3 C C B+ +3 A- F D+
 Sun, Nov 23 217 Cal St. Fullerton W 97 - 93 54% +4  3 - 1 +1 +10 C C+ A+ -10 C+ B- F
 Wed, Nov 26 345 @Air Force W 71 - 53 74% +5  4 - 1 +9 +7 A+ F C+ +5 B+ C- F+
 Wed, Dec 3 252 @Nebraska Omaha W 75 - 70 49% +1  5 - 1 +3 +5 B F C -2 B F+ D-
 Sat, Dec 6 283 South Dakota W 89 - 87 OT 77% +2  6 - 1 -8 +1 A D- D- -10 D C C-
 Tue, Dec 16 14 @Texas Tech L 90 - 101 2% -7  6 - 2 +10 +27 A+ A+ B -17 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 286 Denver L 79 - 86 78% +2  6 - 3 -17 -7 D D- C -10 D- A+ D+
 Sun, Dec 28 82 @Colorado W 86 - 81 13% +2  7 - 3 +15 +12 A+ C D +3 A+ B- F
 Thu, Jan 1 157 @Montana St. L 75 - 89 30% -6  7 - 4 0 - 1 -11 +2 C A- F+ -12 C- F F
 Sat, Jan 3 160 @Montana L 79 - 88 31% -9  7 - 5 0 - 2 -6 +1 F+ C+ B- -7 C+ B+ F+
 Thu, Jan 8 225 Idaho St. W 85 - 72 67% +11  8 - 5 1 - 2 +6 +14 A+ D- B+ -6 B+ C+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 216 Weber St. L 71 - 76 65% -1  8 - 6 1 - 3 -11 -3 D- C C- -9 D+ B D-
 Thu, Jan 15 148 @Portland St. L 73 - 76 28% +1  8 - 7 1 - 4 +1 +4 A+ F D+ -3 C F A
 Sat, Jan 17 293 @Sacramento St. L 89 - 93 OT 59% +7  8 - 8 1 - 5 -9 +2 B- F+ C- -10 F+ C F
 Mon, Jan 19 157 Montana St. L 68 - 73 52% -4  8 - 9 1 - 6 -8 -2 C- B+ D- -6 C- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 311 @Northern Arizona L 77 - 81 64% -2  8 - 10 1 - 7 -10 +9 A- B F -20 F F F+
 Thu, Jan 29 188 Idaho W 78 - 75 60%
 Sat, Jan 31 244 Eastern Washington W 82 - 77 68%
 Thu, Feb 5 216 @Weber St. L 79 - 81 42%
 Sat, Feb 7 225 @Idaho St. L 75 - 76 44%
 Thu, Feb 12 293 Sacramento St. W 86 - 78 78%
 Sat, Feb 14 148 Portland St. W 74 - 73 50%
 Sat, Feb 21 311 Northern Arizona W 80 - 70 81%
 Thu, Feb 26 244 @Eastern Washington L 79 - 80 47%
 Sat, Feb 28 188 @Idaho L 75 - 78 38%
 Mon, Mar 2 160 Montana W 79 - 78 52%
Totals 14 - 14 7 - 11 -2 +1 B- C- C- -3 C C F+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.7 0.4 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.7 1.9 0.3 5.2 4th
5th 0.4 4.4 5.0 0.8 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.4 4.9 8.7 1.6 0.0 15.6 6th
7th 0.5 5.3 10.9 3.9 0.1 20.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 5.8 11.7 5.1 0.3 24.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 4.6 7.4 3.7 0.3 17.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.1 1.0 0.1 5.5 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.7 7.8 14.7 21.2 21.7 17.6 9.5 3.4 0.7 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.7% 28.2% 28.2% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
10-8 3.4% 17.8% 17.8% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 2.8
9-9 9.5% 13.5% 13.5% 14.3 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.0 8.2
8-10 17.6% 9.3% 9.3% 14.8 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.1 16.0
7-11 21.7% 5.7% 5.7% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.4 20.5
6-12 21.2% 4.7% 4.7% 15.7 0.3 0.7 20.2
5-13 14.7% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5 14.1
4-14 7.8% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.2 7.6
3-15 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.1 2.6
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 14.9 93.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.9 19.0 69.0 11.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%