Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +0.3 158
Results Rating +0.0 156
Consistency 0.14 96
Pace 70.8 114
Improvement +1.1 140

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 131 B- C- C D- C+
Defense C- 208 B- C+ F D D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 168 B- 62% 91 +1.7 115
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% 262 C+ 40% 103 -0.8 226
Three Pointers 44% 127 B- 36% 91 +2.8 89
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 122 B- +3.0 88
1st FG Attempt B- 1.09 79
Second Chance D+ 26.9% 276 C+ 1.05 140 C- 0.28 244
Opponents' Steals C 9.6% 199
Other Turnovers C 7.1% 170
Turnovers C 16.7% 184
Freethrows F+ 0.24 350 B- 75% 99 D- 0.18 335
Total Offense C+ +1.4 131

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C 47% 201 B 8.8% 65
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 16% 306 C 5.2% 200
Three Pointers B+ 92% 18 D- 1.7% 336
Total C+ 58% 131 C+ 5.0% 123


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 17 C+ 57% 140 +3.6 300
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 222 D 42% 314 +0.2 204
Three Pointers 35% 336 A 28% 7 -5.8 3
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 296 B- -2.7 68
1st FG Attempt B- 0.98 111
Second Chance B 26.8% 59 D 1.13 310 C+ 0.30 153
Turnovers from Steals F 4.9% 365
Other Turnovers C 7.2% 182
Turnovers F 12.1% 362
Freethrows D+ 0.33 271 F+ 76% 349 D 0.25 307
Total Defense C- -1.1 208

Assists Blocks
Close Shots A- 37% 12 D 7.8% 310
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 22% 111 D- 1.3% 347
Three Pointers A+ 68% 2 C 0.9% 145
Total A 42% 5 D+ 4.1% 299

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.2 146 17.2 170
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 354 0.14 82
Consistency 0.10 23 0.12 117
Improvement +0.9 139 +0.2 179

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 159 157 154
Results Rating Rank 155 153 150
Conference Record 10 - 8 10 - 8 10 - 8
Conference Finish 4 4 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% n/a n/a
First Round0% n/a n/a
Second Round0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0% n/a n/a
Final Four0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0% n/a n/a
National Champion0% n/a n/a

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 37 - 68 - 8
Quad 49 - 417 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 15 272 @Pepperdine W 88 - 81 OT 64% +5  93% 1 - 0 C+ +4 D+ -3 C+ C F B+ +5 B A- F
 Fri, Nov 21 115 St. Thomas L 72 - 73 39% +5  92% 1 - 1 C+ +2 D -6 C- A- F A- +8 A+ F C
 Sat, Nov 22 209 @Portland W 86 - 80 OT 50% +2  64% 2 - 1 B- +6 C +1 C C B+ B +5 A F D
 Sun, Nov 23 183 Cal St. Fullerton W 97 - 93 56% +4  85% 3 - 1 C+ +3 B +7 C- B A+ D -5 B- B- F
 Wed, Nov 26 345 @Air Force W 71 - 53 84% +5  73% 4 - 1 B- +8 C+ +3 A F C+ A- +7 A- D+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 257 @Nebraska Omaha W 75 - 70 60% +1  56% 5 - 1 C+ +3 C+ +2 B- F C C+ +1 B F D
 Sat, Dec 6 285 South Dakota W 89 - 87 OT 84% +2  67% 6 - 1 D+ -8 C +1 A D+ D- F+ -10 D D+ C
 Tue, Dec 16 13 @Texas Tech L 90 - 101 3% -7  0% 6 - 2 B +11 A+ +25 A+ A+ B F -15 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 256 Denver L 79 - 86 79% +2  58% 6 - 3 F+ -15 F+ -8 D D+ C+ D- -7 F+ A+ D+
 Sun, Dec 28 67 @Colorado W 86 - 81 14% +2  57% 7 - 3 A- +17 A- +11 A+ B- D+ B+ +6 A+ C+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 140 @Montana St. L 75 - 89 36% -6  8% 7 - 4 0 - 1 D -10 C- -0 D+ A D F+ -9 C- F F
 Sat, Jan 3 199 @Montana L 79 - 88 48% -9  0% 7 - 5 0 - 2 D+ -8 C- -1 F B- B- D -6 B- B+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 265 Idaho St. W 85 - 72 80% +11  98% 8 - 5 1 - 2 C+ +4 B+ +9 A D- B D+ -4 B C+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 210 Weber St. L 71 - 76 72% -1  37% 8 - 6 1 - 3 D -11 D -6 F B C- D -5 C- B D-
 Thu, Jan 15 160 @Portland St. L 73 - 76 39% +1  58% 8 - 7 1 - 4 C +0 C +1 A+ F C- C -1 C- F A
 Sat, Jan 17 276 @Sacramento St. L 89 - 93 OT 65% +7  86% 8 - 8 1 - 5 D+ -8 C -0 B F C- D- -7 D D F
 Mon, Jan 19 140 Montana St. L 68 - 73 59% -4  25% 8 - 9 1 - 6 D+ -7 D+ -4 D A- D- D+ -3 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 318 @Northern Arizona L 77 - 81 75% -2  18% 8 - 10 1 - 7 D -11 B- +5 A- B- F F -17 F F F+
 Thu, Jan 29 162 Idaho W 91 - 83 62% +2  54% 9 - 10 2 - 7 B- +5 B+ +8 A D+ C C- -3 B A F
 Sat, Jan 31 177 Eastern Washington W 74 - 71 67% -1  34% 10 - 10 3 - 7 C -1 D+ -3 D F A+ B- +2 B- C C-
 Thu, Feb 5 210 @Weber St. W 88 - 74 50% +10  95% 11 - 10 4 - 7 B+ +14 A +13 A A+ B C+ +1 B+ A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 265 @Idaho St. W 69 - 61 61% +3  68% 12 - 10 5 - 7 B- +5 D -4 C B F A +10 A+ C- F
 Thu, Feb 12 276 Sacramento St. W 95 - 79 82% +10  98% 13 - 10 6 - 7 B- +6 C+ +3 A+ F C- B- +2 B A- F
 Sat, Feb 14 160 Portland St. W 77 - 65 62% 14 - 10 7 - 7 B +9
 Sat, Feb 21 318 Northern Arizona W 78 - 77 88% +3  83% 15 - 10 8 - 7 D- -12 C- -2 D+ B- B- F+ -9 C- D+ F
 Thu, Feb 26 177 @Eastern Washington L 72 - 82 44% -0  49% 15 - 11 8 - 8 D+ -8 C- -2 C+ F D+ D- -7 D- B+ F
 Sat, Feb 28 162 @Idaho W 76 - 67 39% -1  36% 16 - 11 9 - 8 B+ +12 B +6 A F C B+ +6 A+ C- F
 Mon, Mar 2 199 Montana W 85 - 57 70% +10  89% 17 - 11 10 - 8 A +23 B- +5 A F A A+ +17 A+ A+ D
 Mon, Mar 9 199 Montana L 89 - 95 59% -8  2% 17 - 12 D+ -8 B+ +8 C+ C- A+ F -16 C F F
Totals 17 - 12 10 - 8 +0 C+ +1 B B- C+ C- -1 B- B- D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ B- C+ B- B- 39% 31% 44% C+ B- D+ C+ C- C F+ B- D- C- C+ D A B- 46% 19% 35% D B- B D C+ F D+ F+ D
1.11 62% 40% 36% +3 0 1.09 27% 1.1 .28 17% .24 75% .18 1.10 57% 42% 28% -3 +1 0.98 27% 1.1 .30 12% .33 76% .18
Nov
15		 Pepperdine D+ C- A+ C- C+ 43% 13% 44% C+ C+ C+ D+ C F A+ B+ A+ B+ A- F A+ B+ 46% 22% 32% D+ B C A+ A- F F A+ F+
1.07 57% 57% 33% +1 +1 1.07 34% 1.0 .34 24% .40 76% .30 0.98 48% 50% 25% -6 0 0.90 30% 0.6 .18 13% .42 67% .28
Nov
21		 St. Thomas D C+ A+ F D+ 47% 9% 44% B+ C- D+ A+ A- F A+ A- A+ A- A- A+ B+ A+ 48% 9% 43% D+ A+ F F+ F C B- A- B
0.99 62% 50% 25% -3 +2 1.00 26% 1.7 .44 25% .38 81% .31 1.00 54% 20% 30% -6 +2 0.94 30% 1.1 .32 15% .26 63% .16
Nov
22		 Portland C C A+ F C- 43% 15% 43% B C F A+ C B+ D+ A+ B- B C+ D A+ A+ 48% 12% 40% F A C- F F D B+ C- B+
1.07 58% 56% 27% -2 +1 1.00 17% 2.0 .34 14% .26 89% .23 0.99 59% 43% 17% -10 +2 0.87 30% 1.6 .48 17% .24 75% .18
Nov
23		 Cal St. Fullerton B B+ D+ D+ C- 35% 15% 51% C+ C- D A+ B A+ A+ A+ A+ D C+ A- B B+ 55% 16% 30% F B- B C B- F F C+ F
1.20 68% 38% 32% +2 +1 1.07 24% 1.5 .36 11% .56 85% .47 1.15 57% 30% 32% -3 +2 1.00 21% 1.0 .21 5% .43 70% .30
Nov
26		 Air Force C+ A- A A A 35% 16% 49% B- A F D+ F C+ F F F A- F A+ A+ B 31% 38% 31% A+ A- B+ F D+ F B- A- B
1.16 71% 50% 42% +12 0 1.27 15% 1.0 .15 15% .15 63% .10 0.87 87% 22% 13% -7 -3 0.83 18% 1.5 .27 16% .27 57% .16
Dec
3		 Nebraska Omaha C+ F A+ A C+ 43% 8% 49% A- B- C F F C D+ A+ C+ C+ A- A C A- 48% 15% 38% F B B- F F D F B+ D-
1.13 50% 75% 40% +4 +2 1.14 29% 0.5 .14 14% .26 87% .23 1.06 48% 29% 33% -7 +1 0.92 23% 1.6 .37 14% .38 68% .26
Dec
6		 South Dakota C A B- A+ A+ 47% 17% 36% C A F A+ D+ D- A+ F C+ F+ C- F A+ D 58% 23% 19% D D C F+ D+ C D- F F
1.17 72% 44% 42% +12 +1 1.28 21% 1.7 .34 18% .40 56% .22 1.14 58% 58% 20% +1 +1 1.06 27% 1.1 .30 17% .43 93% .39
Dec
16		 Texas Tech A+ A+ A A+ A+ 34% 23% 43% B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B F F F F F F F F 28% 22% 50% B- F A+ F A+ F F F+ F
1.31 74% 46% 42% +12 -1 1.25 38% 1.4 .53 15% .14 50% .07 1.47 80% 75% 44% +22 -1 1.44 15% 1.5 .23 4% .37 79% .29
Dec
20		 Denver F+ A+ F F D 44% 15% 41% C+ D C+ F D+ C+ F F F D- D A+ F D- 54% 20% 26% F F+ A+ F A+ D+ C- F F+
1.10 81% 22% 21% 0 +1 1.03 36% 0.9 .33 13% .16 40% .06 1.20 62% 27% 50% +6 +1 1.17 11% 1.7 .19 13% .32 90% .29
Dec
28		 Colorado A- D A+ A+ A+ 42% 21% 38% B- A+ C- A+ B- D+ D+ B C B+ A- A B- A+ 38% 29% 32% A- A+ C B C+ F A+ F B+
1.18 50% 55% 50% +9 0 1.21 24% 1.3 .31 18% .28 76% .22 1.11 52% 32% 33% -5 -1 0.91 32% 0.9 .28 7% .22 93% .21
Jan
1		 Montana St. C- C F C D+ 40% 19% 40% C- D+ B- A+ A D D A+ C+ F+ C- F A C 39% 18% 43% F C- A- F F F D+ C D+
1.04 57% 20% 33% -4 0 0.94 32% 1.5 .47 18% .22 92% .20 1.24 59% 70% 29% +3 0 1.09 22% 2.4 .53 10% .28 72% .20
Jan
3		 Montana C- C- F F+ F+ 23% 30% 48% F F C B+ B- B- C+ B+ B D F A B+ B- 35% 20% 45% C+ B- B+ B- B+ F F F F
1.03 57% 28% 28% -8 -2 0.82 30% 1.1 .35 13% .32 76% .24 1.15 72% 30% 30% +1 0 1.04 16% 1.0 .16 14% .58 92% .53
Jan
8		 Idaho St. B+ A A+ A+ A+ 27% 10% 63% C A D- D+ D- B F+ D F D+ D- C A+ A- 53% 17% 30% D B C- B C+ D+ F C F
1.31 71% 60% 42% +14 +1 1.31 23% 1.0 .23 12% .26 73% .19 1.11 64% 38% 14% -6 +2 0.94 33% 0.9 .31 15% .42 74% .31
Jan
10		 Weber St. D B- F+ F F 55% 21% 23% B- F A+ F+ B C- B A A- D C+ F B+ B- 73% 4% 22% F C- C A- B D- F B- F
1.07 65% 30% 9% -6 +1 0.91 41% 0.9 .38 17% .36 80% .29 1.14 55% 50% 30% -3 +5 1.04 31% 0.8 .25 14% .57 70% .40
Jan
15		 Portland St. C A+ F A+ A+ 26% 16% 58% C- A+ F F F C- D+ D- D- C D+ F A D+ 43% 26% 32% B C- F+ F F A F C- F
1.01 77% 25% 41% +9 0 1.20 13% 0.0 .00 19% .33 68% .22 1.05 60% 50% 27% 0 0 1.02 37% 1.2 .43 24% .51 71% .36
Jan
17		 Sacramento St. C A+ C- D- B 41% 16% 43% C- B F D- F C- F A+ F D- F C B- D- 26% 27% 47% B D D D+ D F F B F
1.11 77% 40% 30% +5 +1 1.14 24% 1.0 .24 17% .20 85% .17 1.16 69% 35% 31% 0 -2 0.98 30% 1.2 .34 10% .47 74% .35
Jan
19		 Montana St. D+ F+ D- C D- 51% 16% 33% B D A+ D A- D- F F F D+ A- C F C 40% 10% 50% F D+ A+ A+ A+ F F D F
1.04 46% 33% 33% -7 +1 0.91 44% 1.0 .44 18% .06 33% .02 1.11 48% 40% 42% +2 +2 1.10 15% 0.8 .12 11% .36 76% .27
Jan
24		 Northern Arizona B- B+ B- A+ A+ 26% 26% 48% F A- A+ F B- F F A+ F F F D+ F F 33% 33% 33% A F A- F F F+ F F F
1.24 67% 42% 50% +15 -2 1.28 47% 0.9 .43 24% .15 86% .13 1.30 73% 40% 53% +15 -2 1.29 17% 2.3 .39 13% .35 74% .26
Jan
29		 Idaho B+ B+ F A+ A- 50% 19% 31% A- A D- B D+ C A+ D A+ C- A+ D- C- B+ 38% 13% 50% D+ B A A+ A F F F F
1.20 65% 30% 44% +7 +1 1.17 19% 1.2 .22 14% .51 70% .35 1.09 38% 43% 36% -6 +1 0.93 21% 0.8 .17 8% .40 86% .34
Jan
31		 Eastern Washington D+ C+ A+ F D 38% 9% 54% B- D C- F F A+ F A- F B- B B+ D B 52% 17% 31% F B- A+ F C C- A+ F A
1.10 62% 60% 27% -2 +1 1.00 31% 0.8 .24 6% .17 82% .14 1.05 52% 33% 38% -2 +1 1.00 21% 1.7 .36 18% .18 90% .16
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Weber St. A A- A+ A+ A 44% 15% 41% B- A D A+ A+ B F D+ F C+ B- F A+ A- 54% 15% 31% D B+ C+ A+ A+ F F+ F F
1.30 71% 50% 41% +12 +1 1.28 24% 2.0 .48 13% .17 70% .12 1.10 54% 75% 13% -7 +2 0.92 30% 0.5 .15 9% .39 83% .32
Feb
7		 Idaho St. D B C- C+ C+ 41% 24% 35% D+ C D- A+ B F F A+ F A A+ A+ B- A+ 44% 19% 37% C A+ A+ F C- F B- B+ B
1.07 65% 42% 35% +4 0 1.10 23% 1.7 .38 20% .15 88% .14 0.94 39% 20% 32% -13 +1 0.77 24% 1.4 .34 11% .28 69% .19
Feb
12		 Sacramento St. C+ A+ A B A+ 45% 6% 48% B A+ F F F C- F B+ F B- A D A A- 39% 17% 44% F+ B A+ D+ A- F F F+ F
1.20 79% 50% 37% +12 +2 1.31 24% 0.9 .21 18% .20 77% .15 0.99 43% 40% 27% -10 +1 0.83 17% 1.1 .20 10% .43 84% .36
Feb
14		 Portland St.
Feb
21		 Northern Arizona C- B F F D 55% 15% 30% B D+ F+ A+ B- B- A C+ A F+ C+ A+ D- C+ 49% 16% 35% F C- D+ D D+ F F F F
1.17 65% 29% 29% 0 +2 1.06 25% 1.7 .43 15% .39 73% .28 1.16 56% 25% 39% 0 +1 1.04 26% 1.1 .29 11% .45 74% .34
Feb
26		 Eastern Washington C- B- A+ F C+ 45% 19% 36% C C+ D F F D+ F F+ F D- D- F A+ D 60% 19% 21% F D- A- C B+ F F F F
1.08 63% 70% 26% +4 +1 1.11 27% 0.9 .23 18% .24 69% .16 1.23 66% 78% 10% +4 +2 1.15 25% 1.2 .29 12% .41 83% .34
Feb
28		 Idaho B F A+ A+ A+ 41% 22% 37% B- A D- F F C C- A+ B+ B+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 52% 5% 43% F A+ F A C- F D+ B- C
1.13 45% 64% 50% +9 0 1.20 19% 0.0 .00 15% .33 89% .30 1.00 48% 0% 21% -16 +3 0.77 36% 0.8 .30 9% .31 68% .21
Mar
2		 Montana B- B A+ B+ A 41% 13% 47% B+ A F C F A F A F A+ B+ B- A+ A+ 44% 19% 37% C- A+ A+ A+ A+ D A+ A+ A+
1.16 65% 50% 37% +6 +1 1.17 17% 1.0 .17 10% .15 80% .12 0.78 52% 36% 24% -9 +1 0.86 10% 0.5 .05 18% .17 60% .10
Mar
9		 Montana B+ D B+ B- C+ 43% 18% 38% B C+ C- C C- A+ B- B- B F B F C C- 34% 26% 40% B+ C D+ F F F F F F
1.19 54% 45% 35% 0 +1 1.03 28% 1.0 .28 5% .33 74% .24 1.27 53% 62% 35% +5 -1 1.10 23% 2.1 .50 12% .46 83% .38



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 100.0% 100.0
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%