Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#161
Expected Predictive Rating+5.2#102
Pace70.8#150
Improvement-0.8#246

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#157
First Shot+1.6#136
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#260
Layup/Dunks+0.7#150
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#170
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#150
Freethrows-0.2#184
Improvement-0.1#196

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#185
First Shot+0.2#160
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#253
Layups/Dunks-4.8#327
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#289
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#13
Freethrows+0.0#180
Improvement-0.7#245
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.5% 23.2% 16.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.0 13.9
.500 or above 87.7% 97.2% 87.3%
.500 or above in Conference 75.8% 87.8% 75.4%
Conference Champion 22.7% 36.4% 22.2%
Last Place in Conference 4.2% 2.0% 4.3%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round16.4% 23.2% 16.2%
Second Round0.9% 1.9% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Tech (Away) - 3.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 35 - 55 - 8
Quad 414 - 319 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 15 311 @Pepperdine W 88-81 OT 69%     1 - 0 +1.7 +1.2 -0.6
  Fri, Nov 21 152 St. Thomas L 72-73 48%     1 - 1 -0.8 -3.9 +3.1
  Sat, Nov 22 274 @Portland W 86-80 OT 60%     2 - 1 +3.1 +0.5 +1.9
  Sun, Nov 23 297 Cal St. Fullerton W 97-93 76%     3 - 1 -3.5 +8.1 -12.1
  Wed, Nov 26 329 @Air Force W 71-53 74%     4 - 1 +11.2 +7.0 +6.8
  Wed, Dec 3 237 @Nebraska Omaha W 75-70 54%     5 - 1 +3.7 +4.1 -0.1
  Sat, Dec 6 283 South Dakota W 89-87 OT 81%     6 - 1 -7.5 +2.1 -9.8
  Tue, Dec 16 21 @Texas Tech L 65-84 4%    
  Sat, Dec 20 295 Denver W 84-74 83%    
  Sun, Dec 28 63 @Colorado L 73-85 14%    
  Thu, Jan 1 165 @Montana St. L 71-74 40%    
  Sat, Jan 3 202 @Montana L 78-79 48%    
  Thu, Jan 8 160 Idaho St. W 72-69 61%    
  Sat, Jan 10 215 Weber St. W 79-73 71%    
  Thu, Jan 15 176 @Portland St. L 71-73 43%    
  Sat, Jan 17 276 @Sacramento St. W 79-76 60%    
  Mon, Jan 19 165 Montana St. W 74-71 61%    
  Sat, Jan 24 258 @Northern Arizona W 74-72 58%    
  Thu, Jan 29 177 Idaho W 77-73 64%    
  Sat, Jan 31 236 Eastern Washington W 82-75 73%    
  Thu, Feb 5 215 @Weber St. W 77-76 50%    
  Sat, Feb 7 160 @Idaho St. L 69-72 40%    
  Thu, Feb 12 276 Sacramento St. W 82-73 78%    
  Sat, Feb 14 176 Portland St. W 74-70 64%    
  Sat, Feb 21 258 Northern Arizona W 77-69 77%    
  Thu, Feb 26 236 @Eastern Washington W 79-78 54%    
  Sat, Feb 28 177 @Idaho L 74-76 43%    
  Mon, Mar 2 202 Montana W 81-76 69%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.8 5.4 6.0 4.5 2.4 0.8 0.2 22.7 1st
2nd 0.6 4.0 6.5 4.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 16.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.6 6.2 2.8 0.5 0.0 13.6 3rd
4th 0.2 2.6 5.8 2.7 0.3 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 5.2 2.8 0.2 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.1 2.5 0.3 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.8 2.5 0.3 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.2 0.6 0.0 5.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 1.4 0.5 0.0 3.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.3 2.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.2 6.5 9.1 11.0 13.2 13.7 12.4 10.0 7.5 4.7 2.4 0.8 0.2 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8
16-2 99.6% 2.4    2.4 0.0
15-3 94.4% 4.5    3.9 0.6 0.0
14-4 80.8% 6.0    4.4 1.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 54.6% 5.4    2.7 2.2 0.5 0.0
12-6 22.5% 2.8    0.6 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-7 4.1% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.7% 22.7 15.0 5.8 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 42.6% 42.6% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.8% 49.8% 49.8% 12.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4
16-2 2.4% 43.9% 43.9% 12.7 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.4
15-3 4.7% 36.9% 36.9% 13.1 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 3.0
14-4 7.5% 31.7% 31.7% 13.4 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.1 5.1
13-5 10.0% 27.1% 27.1% 13.7 0.1 1.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 7.3
12-6 12.4% 20.4% 20.4% 13.9 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.5 0.0 9.9
11-7 13.7% 15.4% 15.4% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.0 11.6
10-8 13.2% 12.7% 12.7% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 11.5
9-9 11.0% 8.5% 8.5% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 10.1
8-10 9.1% 5.6% 5.6% 15.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 8.5
7-11 6.5% 4.0% 4.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.2
6-12 4.2% 2.8% 2.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.1
5-13 2.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.4
4-14 1.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-15 0.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 16.5% 16.5% 0.0% 13.8 0.2 1.5 4.5 6.2 3.5 0.6 83.5 0.0%