Big South
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
147 Winthrop 31.0%   16   2 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 9 12 - 4 +1.5      +2.0 111 -0.5 187 80.5 15 +2.0 153 0.0 1
182 Campbell 18.0%   4 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 8 11 - 5 -1.0      -0.4 186 -0.6 191 56.1 357 +14.8 23 0.0 1
202 Longwood 14.3%   2 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 11 10 - 6 -1.9      -2.1 241 +0.3 165 63.2 318 -7.4 284 0.0 1
205 Gardner-Webb 15.4%   1 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 12 10 - 6 -1.9      -0.7 198 -1.2 217 66.3 248 -3.7 230 0.0 1
269 UNC Asheville 4.2%   1 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 15 8 - 8 -6.0      -3.3 275 -2.7 263 70.3 151 -1.2 199 0.0 1
270 Radford 4.7%   1 - 4 0 - 0 10 - 18 8 - 8 -6.1      -5.7 323 -0.4 184 63.5 313 -7.0 276 0.0 1
277 N.C. A&T 3.6%   1 - 6 0 - 0 10 - 17 8 - 8 -6.4      -5.5 316 -0.9 203 74.4 67 -11.5 319 0.0 1
280 Presbyterian 3.2%   5 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 8 -6.6      -5.6 321 -1.0 211 63.2 317 +5.5 99 0.0 1
283 High Point 3.9%   1 - 3 0 - 0 11 - 16 7 - 9 -6.8      -5.3 312 -1.5 229 65.5 272 -7.0 277 0.0 1
335 Hampton 0.6%   0 - 4 0 - 0 8 - 20 5 - 11 -11.3      -5.0 303 -6.3 333 74.0 72 -11.8 322 0.0 1
337 South Carolina Upstate 0.6%   1 - 4 0 - 0 7 - 19 5 - 11 -11.6      -4.9 300 -6.8 341 70.2 155 -9.7 306 0.0 1
340 Charleston Southern 0.5%   0 - 4 0 - 0 7 - 19 4 - 12 -12.4      -5.5 314 -6.9 343 81.3 7 -3.4 227 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Winthrop 2.3 46.3 21.6 12.9 7.3 4.7 2.9 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1
Campbell 3.4 22.8 20.8 16.1 12.5 9.8 6.7 4.4 3.5 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.1
Longwood 3.8 19.8 17.9 16.6 12.6 11.0 7.6 5.7 4.0 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.2
Gardner-Webb 3.9 18.0 16.9 17.5 13.6 11.3 7.4 5.7 4.3 2.8 1.2 1.0 0.2
UNC Asheville 6.1 5.6 7.1 8.8 10.6 11.4 11.7 12.1 10.1 8.5 6.8 4.7 2.8
Radford 6.2 4.3 6.6 9.0 10.3 12.1 11.7 12.0 11.3 9.3 6.1 4.5 2.9
N.C. A&T 6.4 2.9 6.5 8.1 9.8 11.4 11.8 12.0 11.2 11.6 7.7 4.8 2.2
Presbyterian 6.4 3.8 5.4 7.6 10.2 11.0 13.3 12.9 10.5 10.5 7.5 4.6 2.9
High Point 6.8 3.9 5.6 7.4 8.3 9.3 10.3 11.2 11.4 11.6 9.1 7.1 4.8
Hampton 9.1 0.4 1.2 1.7 2.9 4.4 5.7 7.0 10.6 12.2 15.8 20.5 17.7
South Carolina Upstate 9.2 0.2 0.9 1.9 2.5 3.8 5.8 7.3 10.6 13.2 15.9 19.0 18.9
Charleston Southern 9.6 0.4 0.5 1.2 2.0 2.8 4.6 5.8 9.4 12.3 15.7 21.3 24.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Winthrop 12 - 4 0.0 0.3 0.3 1.0 2.0 3.8 5.7 9.3 13.3 17.2 18.0 16.2 9.6 3.2
Campbell 11 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 3.1 5.2 8.3 11.5 14.8 15.7 15.4 12.2 7.0 3.9 0.9
Longwood 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 4.1 6.9 9.8 12.5 14.0 15.8 13.3 10.9 6.3 2.9 0.6
Gardner-Webb 10 - 6 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.1 1.7 4.1 7.3 9.6 13.5 15.6 15.0 13.7 9.2 5.9 2.2 0.9
UNC Asheville 8 - 8 0.0 0.4 1.3 3.0 5.2 8.9 11.5 13.2 14.6 13.3 10.8 8.2 5.4 2.9 1.0 0.3 0.1
Radford 8 - 8 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.9 5.3 8.9 11.6 13.9 15.8 13.9 9.8 8.1 4.6 2.2 0.9 0.4 0.1
N.C. A&T 8 - 8 0.2 0.3 1.3 3.2 5.6 9.8 13.7 14.9 14.4 13.1 9.9 7.0 3.9 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.1
Presbyterian 8 - 8 0.0 0.5 1.4 2.8 6.5 9.4 12.0 15.4 14.5 13.9 10.2 6.5 3.9 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.0
High Point 7 - 9 0.2 1.1 2.2 5.3 7.4 11.0 13.3 13.6 12.1 12.3 8.4 5.4 4.4 2.1 0.8 0.4
Hampton 5 - 11 1.7 4.7 10.8 13.5 15.8 15.4 12.9 9.7 6.4 4.6 2.6 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.1
South Carolina Upstate 5 - 11 1.5 6.0 9.3 13.5 15.6 15.8 13.6 9.9 7.0 3.7 2.3 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
Charleston Southern 4 - 12 2.2 6.3 12.2 17.3 16.8 14.6 11.6 8.3 5.1 3.4 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Winthrop 46.3% 31.9 11.0 2.9 0.4 0.1
Campbell 22.8% 13.1 7.0 2.3 0.3 0.1
Longwood 19.8% 11.6 6.3 1.7 0.3 0.1
Gardner-Webb 18.0% 10.7 4.8 2.2 0.3 0.1
UNC Asheville 5.6% 2.5 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0
Radford 4.3% 2.3 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.1
N.C. A&T 2.9% 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.3
Presbyterian 3.8% 1.7 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1
High Point 3.9% 1.7 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1
Hampton 0.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
South Carolina Upstate 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Charleston Southern 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Winthrop 31.0% 31.0% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.2 3.9 8.9 10.7 6.3 69.0 0.0%
Campbell 18.0% 18.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 2.9 6.0 6.3 2.1 82.0 0.1%
Longwood 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 0.2 1.2 5.0 7.9 85.7 0.0%
Gardner-Webb 15.4% 15.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.2 5.4 6.9 84.6 0.0%
UNC Asheville 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 2.9 95.8 0.0%
Radford 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.8 3.6 95.4 0.0%
N.C. A&T 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 3.4 96.4 0.0%
Presbyterian 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.3 1.1 1.8 96.8 0.0%
High Point 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.1 96.1 0.0%
Hampton 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 99.4 0.0%
South Carolina Upstate 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 99.4 0.0%
Charleston Southern 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5 99.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Winthrop 31.0% 1.9% 30.4% 3.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell 18.0% 0.6% 17.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Longwood 14.3% 3.7% 12.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Gardner-Webb 15.4% 3.3% 14.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Asheville 4.2% 1.6% 3.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Radford 4.7% 2.3% 3.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
N.C. A&T 3.6% 2.6% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Presbyterian 3.2% 0.8% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
High Point 3.9% 1.7% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hampton 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Carolina Upstate 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charleston Southern 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 91.5% 0.9 8.5 91.5
2nd Round 6.0% 0.1 94.1 6.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0