Big South
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
88 High Point 47.2%   12   1 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 5 13 - 3 +5.8      +4.8 55 +1.0 125 66.7 246 +12.0 14 0.0 1
151 Winthrop 14.9%   1 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 10 - 6 -0.2      0.0 156 -0.2 166 79.8 11 +8.5 29 0.0 1
156 Radford 13.0%   1 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 10 - 6 -0.5      +2.4 98 -2.9 280 59.7 360 +0.6 158 0.0 1
190 UNC Asheville 9.2%   0 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 13 9 - 7 -2.3      -0.5 175 -1.8 223 69.1 172 -7.3 320 0.0 1
209 Longwood 9.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 9 - 7 -2.7      -0.9 189 -1.8 226 71.4 113 0.0 165 0.0 1
305 Presbyterian 2.2%   0 - 1 0 - 0 9 - 19 6 - 10 -7.3      -4.1 303 -3.3 298 62.6 331 -16.3 354 0.0 1
318 South Carolina Upstate 1.5%   1 - 1 0 - 0 10 - 18 5 - 11 -8.5      -4.7 321 -3.8 315 78.6 19 +0.2 163 0.0 1
319 Charleston Southern 1.4%   0 - 1 0 - 0 8 - 17 4 - 10 -8.6      -5.2 330 -3.4 302 69.7 154 -2.1 270 0.0 1
324 Gardner-Webb 1.5%   0 - 1 0 - 0 6 - 20 4 - 10 -8.7      -5.5 335 -3.1 288 71.9 94 -2.6 276 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
High Point 1.7 64.1 18.9 9.3 4.1 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.1
Winthrop 3.3 16.0 23.5 22.1 15.0 10.6 6.6 3.2 2.3 0.7
Radford 3.3 15.8 23.0 20.9 16.2 10.8 6.3 3.7 2.2 1.1
UNC Asheville 4.0 10.3 16.8 15.7 19.0 14.8 11.1 7.3 3.1 1.9
Longwood 4.2 8.8 15.6 17.7 17.0 15.5 10.6 7.3 4.9 2.6
Presbyterian 5.8 2.0 4.4 8.1 11.4 16.2 18.2 15.5 14.0 10.3
South Carolina Upstate 6.3 0.8 3.2 5.7 8.7 13.1 18.2 20.6 15.4 14.4
Charleston Southern 7.0 0.2 1.3 3.0 5.7 9.5 14.6 19.4 23.5 22.8
Gardner-Webb 7.1 0.2 0.9 2.2 4.5 9.7 13.7 18.8 25.0 24.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
High Point 13 - 3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 2.3 4.2 6.8 8.9 14.0 17.8 19.2 16.1 8.8
Winthrop 10 - 6 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.4 5.4 7.4 10.6 12.6 13.8 13.0 13.6 8.4 5.2 2.5 0.8
Radford 10 - 6 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.3 3.7 5.0 8.3 10.6 14.1 12.9 14.0 11.8 8.3 5.4 1.9 0.5
UNC Asheville 9 - 7 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.5 3.3 6.9 8.5 11.6 13.5 13.0 11.9 10.6 7.8 6.0 3.0 1.0 0.3
Longwood 9 - 7 0.2 0.4 1.3 2.7 4.7 7.0 8.9 10.0 13.1 12.6 12.7 9.7 8.1 4.8 2.5 1.0 0.3
Presbyterian 6 - 10 0.7 2.9 5.4 8.2 13.2 13.3 12.8 13.8 10.0 7.9 4.8 3.9 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
South Carolina Upstate 5 - 11 1.0 3.2 8.4 11.6 14.5 15.4 14.8 10.2 8.4 5.5 3.6 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1
Charleston Southern 4 - 12 3.1 6.7 13.4 15.2 16.6 14.6 11.5 8.2 5.2 3.0 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.0
Gardner-Webb 4 - 12 3.1 8.8 12.3 17.2 16.0 14.0 11.2 8.0 5.0 2.5 1.1 0.5 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
High Point 64.1% 51.3 11.1 1.6 0.1 0.0
Winthrop 16.0% 10.3 4.6 1.1 0.1 0.0
Radford 15.8% 9.7 5.1 0.9 0.0 0.0
UNC Asheville 10.3% 5.8 3.6 0.8 0.1
Longwood 8.8% 5.0 2.9 0.9 0.1
Presbyterian 2.0% 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
South Carolina Upstate 0.8% 0.6 0.2 0.0
Charleston Southern 0.2% 0.2 0.1
Gardner-Webb 0.2% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
High Point 47.2% 46.9% 0.3% 12   0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.0 7.1 18.6 10.9 5.1 1.7 0.5 52.8 0.6%
Winthrop 14.9% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 2.8 3.9 4.0 2.5 1.0 85.1 0.0%
Radford 13.0% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.3 2.9 2.9 1.4 87.0 0.0%
UNC Asheville 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.4 2.4 2.2 2.3 90.8 0.0%
Longwood 9.4% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.8 2.2 1.6 90.6 0.0%
Presbyterian 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.5 97.8 0.0%
South Carolina Upstate 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.8 98.5 0.0%
Charleston Southern 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 98.6 0.0%
Gardner-Webb 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 1.0 98.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
High Point 47.2% 0.4% 47.0% 9.9% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Winthrop 14.9% 0.7% 14.5% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Radford 13.0% 0.7% 12.7% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Asheville 9.2% 1.6% 8.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Longwood 9.4% 0.8% 9.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Presbyterian 2.2% 1.1% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Carolina Upstate 1.5% 0.5% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charleston Southern 1.4% 0.5% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Gardner-Webb 1.5% 0.9% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.6 0.4
1st Round 96.8% 1.0 3.2 96.7 0.2
2nd Round 13.9% 0.1 86.1 13.9
Sweet Sixteen 3.3% 0.0 96.7 3.3
Elite Eight 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0