Charleston Southern
Big South
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.0#278
Expected Predictive Rating-7.6#296
Pace65.5#265
Improvement+0.7#88

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#106
First Shot-0.7#207
After Offensive Rebound+3.1#17
Layup/Dunks-4.1#332
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#39
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#145
Freethrows-0.4#204
Improvement+0.5#97

Defense
Total Defense-8.4#360
First Shot-7.1#356
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#303
Layups/Dunks-4.2#330
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#4
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#317
Freethrows-2.0#314
Improvement+0.3#137
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 2.5% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 27.1% 43.5% 14.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 0.5% 3.1%
First Four2.2% 2.4% 2.0%
First Round1.0% 1.2% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Gardner-Webb (Home) - 43.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 31 - 71 - 10
Quad 48 - 710 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2022 29   @ Ohio St. L 56-82 3%     0 - 1 -10.7 -10.8 -0.6
  Nov 16, 2022 83   @ Tulane L 79-99 9%     0 - 2 -10.8 +4.3 -14.0
  Nov 21, 2022 355   Bethune-Cookman W 78-63 85%     1 - 2 -2.2 +1.0 -2.3
  Nov 25, 2022 47   @ Virginia Tech L 64-69 5%     1 - 3 +8.0 +7.3 -0.2
  Nov 30, 2022 296   The Citadel L 73-76 66%     1 - 4 -13.2 -2.3 -11.0
  Dec 02, 2022 131   @ South Florida L 59-79 15%     1 - 5 -15.1 -4.2 -13.2
  Dec 05, 2022 150   Kennesaw St. L 65-76 34%     1 - 6 -12.8 -12.6 +0.4
  Dec 14, 2022 321   @ Tennessee St. W 91-87 51%     2 - 6 -2.4 +8.6 -11.2
  Dec 17, 2022 197   @ Jacksonville L 63-72 24%     2 - 7 -7.7 +4.5 -14.1
  Dec 29, 2022 196   @ Gardner-Webb L 63-83 24%     2 - 8 0 - 1 -18.7 -1.2 -18.9
  Dec 31, 2022 298   South Carolina Upstate W 90-85 66%     3 - 8 1 - 1 -5.3 +15.7 -21.0
  Jan 04, 2023 181   Longwood L 74-79 39%     3 - 9 1 - 2 -8.0 +5.4 -13.7
  Jan 07, 2023 328   @ Presbyterian W 67-61 55%     4 - 9 2 - 2 -1.2 -2.2 +1.6
  Jan 11, 2023 302   High Point W 106-69 67%     5 - 9 3 - 2 +26.6 +20.7 +3.4
  Jan 14, 2023 178   @ Radford L 70-75 21%     5 - 10 3 - 3 -2.6 +1.5 -4.2
  Jan 18, 2023 189   UNC Asheville L 63-73 41%     5 - 11 3 - 4 -13.8 -6.2 -8.5
  Jan 21, 2023 257   Campbell L 76-78 OT 57%     5 - 12 3 - 5 -9.7 +1.7 -11.5
  Jan 25, 2023 247   @ Winthrop L 64-76 34%     5 - 13 3 - 6 -13.8 +0.4 -16.7
  Jan 28, 2023 181   @ Longwood W 75-63 21%     6 - 13 4 - 6 +14.3 +12.8 +3.0
  Feb 01, 2023 196   Gardner-Webb L 68-70 43%    
  Feb 04, 2023 302   @ High Point L 79-80 45%    
  Feb 08, 2023 298   @ South Carolina Upstate L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 11, 2023 178   Radford L 69-72 41%    
  Feb 15, 2023 257   @ Campbell L 68-72 35%    
  Feb 18, 2023 247   Winthrop W 77-76 55%    
  Feb 22, 2023 189   @ UNC Asheville L 70-78 23%    
  Feb 25, 2023 328   Presbyterian W 74-67 74%    
Projected Record 10 - 17 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big South Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.1 1.5 3rd
4th 0.2 1.9 4.0 1.2 0.1 7.4 4th
5th 0.4 5.7 10.1 3.6 0.2 19.9 5th
6th 0.3 6.5 14.0 4.1 0.2 25.0 6th
7th 0.2 4.5 13.2 4.9 0.1 22.9 7th
8th 0.1 2.9 9.6 4.8 0.3 17.8 8th
9th 0.6 2.6 1.7 0.1 5.0 9th
10th 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 10th
Total 1.0 5.8 16.1 25.0 25.0 16.3 8.3 2.3 0.2 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 9.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.2% 14.3% 14.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 2.3% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.1 2.2
10-8 8.3% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.4 7.9
9-9 16.3% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.5 15.7
8-10 25.0% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.5 24.5
7-11 25.0% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.4 24.6
6-12 16.1% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 15.9
5-13 5.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.8
4-14 1.0% 1.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.2 97.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 14.3% 15.7 4.8 9.5
Lose Out 1.0%