Charleston Southern
Big South
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.7 #244
Expected Predictive Rating -7.0 #284
Pace 76.6 #25
Improvement -0.4 #205

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #268 C+ D C- D B
Defense #213 B C F D B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #227 1.14 #199 -1.4 #232
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #340 0.71 #257 -3.7 #343
Three Pointers 52% #17 1.05 #123 +6.4 #21
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #136 +1.3 #136
Freethrows 0.27 #279 65% #354 0.18 #325
Second Chance 27.7% #261 0.87 #355 0.24 #333
Turnovers 17.4% #247
Total Offense -3.6 #268

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #83 1.03 #44 +0.4 #157
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #30 0.72 #112 -2.0 #325
Three Pointers 30% #363 0.99 #149 +5.7 #9
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #58 +4.1 #60
Freethrows 0.37 #336 71% #92 0.26 #324
Second Chance 28.8% #112 1.07 #228 0.31 #148
Turnovers 11.6% #362
Total Defense -1.1 #213

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.0% #53 -1.1% #83
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.5% #168 -7.0% #58
Possession Length 15.4 #33 16.7 #73
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #304 0.17 #171
Improvement -1.8 #284 +1.4 #98

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.4% 3.5% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 9.1% 9.6% 0.9%
.500 or above in Conference 12.3% 13.0% 1.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.5% 13.7%
First Four2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
First Round2.6% 2.7% 1.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Gardner-Webb (Home) - 93.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 31 - 62 - 10
Quad 411 - 713 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 59 @Virginia Tech L 67 - 98 7% -13  0 - 1 -19 -6 C F C- -9 B F F
 Mon, Nov 10 348 @The Citadel W 96 - 86 66% +0  1 - 1 +1 +15 B B- C+ -14 F A+ F
 Thu, Nov 13 298 @Alabama A&M L 64 - 68 50% -5  1 - 2 -9 -10 D C- F +1 A- F B+
 Fri, Nov 14 238 Lindenwood L 77 - 83 49% +6  1 - 3 -10 -4 B- F D -6 D A+ F
 Tue, Nov 18 340 IU Indianapolis W 103 - 91 82% +13  2 - 3 -2 +6 B+ C+ D+ -10 B C F
 Fri, Nov 21 257 @East Carolina W 77 - 65 42% +7  3 - 3 +9 +5 B+ F A- +4 B- C- D-
 Fri, Nov 28 89 @South Carolina L 62 - 74 10% -4  3 - 4 -3 -6 D+ F+ C+ +4 A+ C F
 Tue, Dec 2 228 @Tennessee Martin L 56 - 73 35% +7  3 - 5 -18 -11 D- F+ F -7 C+ A+ D
 Mon, Dec 8 360 South Carolina St. W 84 - 44 89% +15  4 - 5 +22 +5 C+ F C- +18 A+ A+ C+
 Thu, Dec 18 351 North Florida W 113 - 90 85% +12  5 - 5 +7 +12 A+ F D -8 C+ B F
 Sun, Dec 21 159 @Furman L 76 - 84 23% -6  5 - 6 -5 +0 C F+ B -5 B D F
 Sun, Dec 28 117 @Richmond W 77 - 72 16% +4  6 - 6 +11 +4 C C- D+ +7 A A+ D
 Wed, Dec 31 363 @Gardner-Webb W 89 - 79 84% -1  7 - 6 1 - 0 -5 +4 C C D -10 B+ F F
 Sat, Jan 3 205 UNC Asheville W 86 - 83 54% +6  8 - 6 2 - 0 -3 +8 A+ A- F -11 A+ F F
 Wed, Jan 7 123 @Winthrop L 77 - 81 18% +2  8 - 7 2 - 1 +1 -2 F A- A+ +3 A- B- C-
 Sat, Jan 10 99 High Point L 82 - 84 OT 26% +2  8 - 8 2 - 2 +0 -5 D+ F A +5 A+ A D+
 Wed, Jan 14 301 South Carolina Upstate L 81 - 86 OT 73% +1  8 - 9 2 - 3 -16 -4 A- F C -11 A- F F
 Wed, Jan 21 255 @Presbyterian L 83 - 87 41% -8  8 - 10 2 - 4 -6 +5 B- A- C- -11 F A- F
 Fri, Jan 23 261 @Longwood L 79 - 81 OT 42% -6  8 - 11 2 - 5 -5 -6 C D+ F +2 B- A+ C
 Thu, Jan 29 243 Radford L 75 - 84 61% -8  8 - 12 2 - 6 -17 -11 F+ F D- -4 C+ D- C+
 Sat, Jan 31 363 Gardner-Webb W 87 - 71 94%
 Wed, Feb 4 99 @High Point L 76 - 89 12%
 Sat, Feb 7 301 @South Carolina Upstate W 75 - 74 51%
 Thu, Feb 12 255 Presbyterian W 75 - 71 64%
 Sat, Feb 14 243 @Radford L 81 - 84 39%
 Sat, Feb 21 261 Longwood W 79 - 75 64%
 Thu, Feb 26 123 Winthrop L 78 - 82 36%
 Sat, Feb 28 205 @UNC Asheville L 72 - 77 33%
Totals 12 - 16 6 - 10 -5 -4 C+ D C- -1 B C F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 1.4 0.2 2.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 4.7 0.9 0.0 6.7 4th
5th 0.9 8.0 3.3 0.1 12.2 5th
6th 1.0 10.6 9.6 0.5 0.0 21.8 6th
7th 0.1 3.4 14.9 16.2 2.1 0.0 36.6 7th
8th 0.1 2.6 8.6 7.2 1.0 19.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 9th
Total 0.2 2.9 12.0 23.1 28.7 20.9 9.6 2.4 0.3 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.3% 5.8% 5.8% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
9-7 2.4% 8.1% 8.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.2
8-8 9.6% 6.4% 6.4% 15.5 0.3 0.3 9.0
7-9 20.9% 4.8% 4.8% 15.9 0.1 0.9 19.9
6-10 28.7% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.8 27.9
5-11 23.1% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5 22.5
4-12 12.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 11.8
3-13 2.9% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 2.8
2-14 0.2% 0.2
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 15.8 96.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%