Presbyterian
Big South
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.3#293
Expected Predictive Rating+4.7#114
Pace62.1#332
Improvement-1.2#267

Offense
Total Offense-5.8#324
First Shot-9.7#355
After Offensive Rebound+3.8#10
Layup/Dunks-1.8#234
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#162
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.8#344
Freethrows-1.3#256
Improvement+0.2#150

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#223
First Shot-3.5#277
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#60
Layups/Dunks-2.2#252
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#66
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#217
Freethrows-2.3#303
Improvement-1.4#292
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 4.5% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.4 15.6
.500 or above 36.5% 60.1% 33.1%
.500 or above in Conference 47.6% 59.8% 45.8%
Conference Champion 2.7% 5.1% 2.4%
Last Place in Conference 5.3% 3.0% 5.6%
First Four0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
First Round2.4% 4.2% 2.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Morehead St. (Away) - 12.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 52 - 10
Quad 412 - 614 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 50   @ Clemson L 53-64 5%     0 - 1 +0.9 -10.8 +11.2
  Nov 12, 2021 261   VMI W 73-72 OT 55%     1 - 1 -7.5 -4.3 -3.1
  Nov 15, 2021 238   The Citadel W 74-70 2OT 49%     2 - 1 -2.9 -13.5 +10.1
  Nov 18, 2021 55   @ Cincinnati L 45-79 5%     2 - 2 -22.7 -18.7 -4.8
  Nov 24, 2021 261   VMI W 59-54 43%     3 - 2 -0.5 -11.2 +11.3
  Nov 25, 2021 285   @ New Orleans W 68-66 36%     4 - 2 -1.5 -9.7 +8.2
  Nov 26, 2021 340   Central Arkansas W 75-66 71%     5 - 2 -4.0 +1.6 -4.8
  Nov 30, 2021 18   @ Tennessee L 44-86 2%     5 - 3 -24.5 -14.8 -14.1
  Dec 06, 2021 134   @ Morehead St. L 56-68 13%    
  Dec 12, 2021 198   @ College of Charleston L 68-77 20%    
  Dec 18, 2021 119   Wofford L 60-67 24%    
  Dec 21, 2021 105   @ Furman L 59-74 8%    
  Jan 05, 2022 281   @ N.C. A&T L 62-66 37%    
  Jan 08, 2022 334   South Carolina Upstate W 70-62 76%    
  Jan 12, 2022 190   @ Gardner-Webb L 59-68 21%    
  Jan 15, 2022 338   @ Hampton W 66-64 58%    
  Jan 19, 2022 146   Winthrop L 67-73 31%    
  Jan 22, 2022 210   Longwood L 61-63 43%    
  Jan 26, 2022 349   @ Charleston Southern W 72-68 65%    
  Jan 29, 2022 270   UNC Asheville W 66-64 57%    
  Feb 02, 2022 179   Campbell L 57-60 39%    
  Feb 05, 2022 248   @ Radford L 57-63 31%    
  Feb 09, 2022 282   High Point W 61-59 56%    
  Feb 12, 2022 146   @ Winthrop L 64-76 14%    
  Feb 16, 2022 334   @ South Carolina Upstate W 67-65 54%    
  Feb 19, 2022 190   Gardner-Webb L 62-65 40%    
  Feb 23, 2022 349   Charleston Southern W 75-65 82%    
  Feb 26, 2022 270   @ UNC Asheville L 63-67 35%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.5 0.6 0.0 6.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.7 0.8 0.0 7.8 4th
5th 0.3 3.5 5.8 1.8 0.1 11.6 5th
6th 0.1 2.6 6.4 3.4 0.2 12.7 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 6.7 3.9 0.4 13.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 6.0 5.3 0.8 0.0 13.7 8th
9th 0.0 1.3 4.4 4.4 0.9 11.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 3.2 4.0 0.9 0.0 8.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.0 0.6 0.1 5.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.6 12th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.4 3.9 7.0 10.5 13.5 15.8 15.2 12.8 8.7 5.7 3.2 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-2 85.9% 0.3    0.3 0.0 0.0
13-3 70.6% 1.1    0.6 0.3 0.2
12-4 28.2% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0
11-5 4.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0
15-1 0.1% 16.1% 16.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1
14-2 0.3% 19.0% 19.0% 15.0 0.1 0.3
13-3 1.6% 12.8% 12.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.4
12-4 3.2% 12.9% 12.9% 15.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.8
11-5 5.7% 8.2% 8.2% 15.5 0.2 0.2 5.2
10-6 8.7% 6.3% 6.3% 15.5 0.3 0.3 8.1
9-7 12.8% 4.0% 4.0% 15.8 0.1 0.4 12.3
8-8 15.2% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4 14.8
7-9 15.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 15.7
6-10 13.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 13.4
5-11 10.5% 10.5
4-12 7.0% 7.0
3-13 3.9% 3.9
2-14 1.4% 1.4
1-15 0.3% 0.3
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.8 97.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%