Radford
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.1 #234
Expected Predictive Rating -5.3 #247
Pace 75.7 #30
Improvement +5.2 #16

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #175 C C- C- B+ C+
Defense #288 D+ D C+ D+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #222 1.09 #261 -2.1 #257
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #268 0.76 #178 -1.6 #262
Three Pointers 47% #67 1.00 #201 +2.6 #94
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #204 -1.0 #204
Freethrows 0.36 #29 73% #170 0.26 #35
Second Chance 28.2% #250 0.99 #224 0.28 #254
Turnovers 17.3% #220
Total Offense -0.3 #175

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #108 1.19 #232 -2.4 #264
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #282 0.73 #132 +1.4 #79
Three Pointers 41% #174 1.13 #326 -2.5 #292
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #290 -3.5 #290
Freethrows 0.34 #304 72% #157 0.25 #295
Second Chance 33.5% #293 1.11 #299 0.37 #311
Turnovers 17.7% #117
Total Defense -3.8 #288

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #129 1.2% #282
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.9% #221 5.5% #287
Possession Length 16.2 #76 16.8 #108
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #102 0.19 #250
Improvement +3.1 #45 +2.0 #73

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.8% 5.9% 4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 41.8% 63.7% 28.7%
.500 or above in Conference 96.6% 99.8% 94.7%
Conference Champion 0.5% 1.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.3% 0.8% 1.6%
First Round4.3% 5.6% 3.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Winthrop (Home) - 37.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 11
Quad 413 - 514 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 362 Western Illinois W 80 - 75 91% +5  1 - 0 -14 +10 B- A+ A- -23 F F C
 Tue, Nov 11 29 @North Carolina L 74 - 89 3% -11  1 - 1 +3 -3 D- C- C+ +8 A+ B- C+
 Sat, Nov 15 147 Wright St. L 59 - 92 32% -13  1 - 2 -32 -17 F+ F F+ -15 F D C
 Sun, Nov 16 307 Cleveland St. L 82 - 87 67% +9  1 - 3 -14 -11 F D+ F+ -2 D+ B C
 Tue, Nov 18 93 @South Carolina L 58 - 87 11% -15  1 - 4 -20 -11 F D+ F -8 D- F B
 Fri, Nov 21 117 UNC Wilmington L 73 - 81 34% -8  1 - 5 -8 -0 B- D F -8 F D- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 39 @SMU L 72 - 89 4% -11  1 - 6 -1 -2 F B- A +4 A- F+ A
 Wed, Dec 3 250 Southern Miss L 75 - 82 66% -6  1 - 7 -15 -5 F C- B -10 B- C- C
 Sun, Dec 7 358 St. Francis (PA) W 89 - 56 89% +17  2 - 7 +16 +8 C A C +7 B- B+ B-
 Sun, Dec 14 364 Coppin St. W 107 - 77 95% +12  3 - 7 +7 +12 A+ C D -8 F C- A+
 Thu, Dec 18 149 @William & Mary L 83 - 96 23% -3  3 - 8 -9 +1 D B- C+ -8 B- F F+
 Sun, Dec 21 357 VMI W 97 - 90 89% +2  4 - 8 -10 +10 A B+ D+ -21 F F B-
 Wed, Dec 31 301 @South Carolina Upstate W 76 - 69 54% +4  5 - 8 1 - 0 +2 +0 C- C F+ +1 B+ F+ C+
 Wed, Jan 7 263 Presbyterian W 80 - 61 68% +6  6 - 8 2 - 0 +10 +14 A F+ A- -1 B C- F
 Sat, Jan 10 209 UNC Asheville L 72 - 91 57% -9  6 - 9 2 - 1 -25 -7 F F A+ -17 F A- C-
 Wed, Jan 14 363 @Gardner-Webb W 89 - 80 85% +5  7 - 9 3 - 1 -6 +8 D D- B+ -14 F+ F+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 266 Longwood W 85 - 83 68% +11  8 - 9 4 - 1 -7 +9 B+ D- B -16 F F C+
 Wed, Jan 21 123 @Winthrop L 75 - 76 19% +2  8 - 10 4 - 2 +4 +5 A+ D- F -0 F B+ B
 Fri, Jan 23 98 High Point L 83 - 93 27% -1  8 - 11 4 - 3 -8 +4 A- D- F+ -11 F B+ F+
 Thu, Jan 29 245 @Charleston Southern W 84 - 75 41% +8  9 - 11 5 - 3 +7 +3 C+ B- F +4 A- C B
 Sat, Jan 31 263 @Presbyterian W 93 - 84 2OT 45% +0  10 - 11 6 - 3 +6 +5 D C- A- -0 F A A+
 Wed, Feb 4 123 Winthrop L 81 - 84 37%
 Sat, Feb 7 98 @High Point L 79 - 91 12%
 Sat, Feb 14 245 Charleston Southern W 85 - 81 63%
 Thu, Feb 19 363 Gardner-Webb W 90 - 73 95%
 Sat, Feb 21 209 @UNC Asheville L 75 - 79 35%
 Thu, Feb 26 301 South Carolina Upstate W 81 - 74 75%
 Sat, Feb 28 266 @Longwood L 79 - 80 45%
Totals 14 - 14 10 - 6 -4 +0 C C- C- -4 D+ D C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.5 2.7 0.3 5.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.0 20.7 29.4 14.9 2.4 70.4 3rd
4th 0.6 8.3 8.1 0.9 17.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.7 2.4 0.2 4.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 0.1 1.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.2 3.2 13.8 29.0 30.7 17.4 5.3 0.5 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 45.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
12-4 4.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.2
11-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.5% 11.2% 11.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-4 5.3% 9.8% 9.8% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 4.8
11-5 17.4% 6.8% 6.8% 15.3 0.1 0.7 0.5 16.2
10-6 30.7% 5.2% 5.2% 15.6 0.0 0.6 1.0 29.1
9-7 29.0% 3.6% 3.6% 15.9 0.1 1.0 27.9
8-8 13.8% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.4 13.4
7-9 3.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 3.2
6-10 0.2% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 15.6 95.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.1%