Radford
Big South
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#178
Expected Predictive Rating-0.2#170
Pace63.6#302
Improvement-0.1#197

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#213
First Shot-0.3#196
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#237
Layup/Dunks+0.1#169
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#39
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#279
Freethrows-0.7#242
Improvement-0.7#293

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#144
First Shot+1.3#134
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#236
Layups/Dunks-1.4#244
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#61
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#165
Freethrows+0.8#118
Improvement+0.6#96
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.9% 27.1% 22.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.8 15.1
.500 or above 98.5% 99.6% 95.2%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 47.3% 53.4% 29.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.9% 0.6% 1.7%
First Round25.6% 26.9% 21.7%
Second Round1.4% 1.5% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Winthrop (Home) - 75.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 42 - 7
Quad 415 - 517 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 8   @ Marquette L 69-79 5%     0 - 1 +8.7 -6.1 +16.0
  Nov 10, 2022 127   @ Notre Dame L 76-79 30%     0 - 2 +2.0 +7.4 -5.6
  Nov 20, 2022 237   Army W 90-75 64%     1 - 2 +11.1 +12.8 -1.9
  Nov 23, 2022 305   @ William & Mary L 51-62 68%     1 - 3 -16.1 -20.9 +3.8
  Nov 27, 2022 334   @ Elon W 69-53 76%     2 - 3 +8.4 +1.7 +8.7
  Dec 01, 2022 254   NC Central W 80-78 76%     3 - 3 -5.5 +2.8 -8.4
  Dec 04, 2022 191   George Washington W 86-76 64%     4 - 3 +6.1 +8.8 -2.7
  Dec 10, 2022 335   @ VMI L 74-77 76%     4 - 4 -10.7 -2.9 -7.9
  Dec 14, 2022 74   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 62-70 17%     4 - 5 +1.8 -4.1 +6.1
  Dec 17, 2022 193   @ Eastern Kentucky L 65-67 43%     4 - 6 -0.5 -7.1 +6.6
  Dec 21, 2022 28   @ Kansas St. L 65-73 8%     4 - 7 +7.5 +4.4 +2.6
  Dec 29, 2022 188   @ UNC Asheville L 58-62 43%     4 - 8 0 - 1 -2.4 -10.8 +8.2
  Dec 31, 2022 330   Presbyterian W 69-51 87%     5 - 8 1 - 1 +5.3 +0.7 +7.4
  Jan 04, 2023 306   South Carolina Upstate L 60-65 84%     5 - 9 1 - 2 -15.7 -11.6 -4.5
  Jan 07, 2023 192   @ Gardner-Webb W 63-59 43%     6 - 9 2 - 2 +5.5 +3.6 +2.5
  Jan 11, 2023 244   @ Winthrop W 66-52 55%     7 - 9 3 - 2 +12.4 +1.3 +13.8
  Jan 14, 2023 280   Charleston Southern W 75-70 80%     8 - 9 4 - 2 -4.0 -5.0 +1.1
  Jan 18, 2023 255   @ Campbell W 63-55 57%     9 - 9 5 - 2 +5.9 +3.0 +4.8
  Jan 21, 2023 304   High Point W 95-80 83%     10 - 9 6 - 2 +4.5 +12.2 -8.5
  Jan 26, 2023 181   Longwood W 63-59 61%     11 - 9 7 - 2 +0.8 +0.5 +1.1
  Jan 28, 2023 306   @ South Carolina Upstate W 55-52 69%     12 - 9 8 - 2 -2.3 -14.1 +12.1
  Feb 01, 2023 330   @ Presbyterian W 67-59 75%     13 - 9 9 - 2 +0.7 +0.5 +1.4
  Feb 04, 2023 244   Winthrop W 73-66 75%    
  Feb 08, 2023 192   Gardner-Webb W 64-60 64%    
  Feb 11, 2023 280   @ Charleston Southern W 71-68 62%    
  Feb 15, 2023 188   UNC Asheville W 69-65 64%    
  Feb 18, 2023 181   @ Longwood L 63-66 40%    
  Feb 22, 2023 304   @ High Point W 74-69 66%    
  Feb 25, 2023 255   Campbell W 67-60 76%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 7.2 18.4 16.2 5.0 47.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 8.0 17.4 9.9 1.5 37.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.9 6.4 1.5 10.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.2 0.6 3.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 1.4 5.9 15.6 26.1 28.3 17.7 5.0 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 5.0    4.7 0.3
15-3 91.3% 16.2    12.3 3.9
14-4 65.0% 18.4    9.3 8.5 0.7
13-5 27.5% 7.2    1.3 3.7 2.0 0.2
12-6 3.8% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 47.3% 47.3 27.6 16.5 2.9 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 5.0% 39.8% 39.8% 14.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.5 0.0 3.0
15-3 17.7% 33.8% 33.8% 14.5 0.0 0.2 2.5 3.1 0.2 11.7
14-4 28.3% 29.0% 29.0% 14.8 0.1 2.1 5.1 0.9 20.1
13-5 26.1% 23.0% 23.0% 15.1 0.0 0.6 3.9 1.4 20.1
12-6 15.6% 17.9% 17.9% 15.4 0.1 1.6 1.1 12.8
11-7 5.9% 14.5% 14.5% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 5.0
10-8 1.4% 10.6% 10.6% 16.0 0.1 1.2
9-9 0.1% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.9% 25.9% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.7 6.5 14.3 4.4 74.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.0% 39.8% 14.0 0.2 7.0 23.3 9.1 0.1
Lose Out 0.1% 8.5% 16.0 8.5