Longwood
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.6 #264
Expected Predictive Rating -7.3 #282
Pace 70.8 #129
Improvement +4.3 #26

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #230 D C F B- C
Defense #277 F B C C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #168 1.16 #176 +0.0 #177
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #137 0.71 #236 +0.3 #160
Three Pointers 39% #226 0.89 #327 -3.6 #302
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #273 -3.3 #272
Freethrows 18.1 #140 78% #32 14.1 #97
Second Chance 34.2% #82 0.96 #288 0.33 #155
Turnovers 19.1% #329
Total Offense -2.3 #230

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #161 1.36 #361 -4.4 #323
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #327 0.80 #257 +1.6 #67
Three Pointers 45% #62 1.07 #259 -3.5 #316
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #345 -6.3 #345
Freethrows 19.0 #271 71% #110 13.5 #244
Second Chance 29.8% #148 0.93 #45 0.28 #82
Turnovers 16.6% #176
Total Defense -3.3 #277

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.5% #225 1.5% #308
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.0% #271 10.7% #343
Possession Length 17.1 #149 17.2 #164
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #238 0.19 #246
Improvement +2.4 #58 +1.8 #72

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 3.8% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 24.2% 34.1% 12.0%
.500 or above in Conference 56.1% 69.5% 39.6%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.6% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
First Round2.5% 3.1% 1.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charleston Southern (Home) - 55.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 62 - 9
Quad 412 - 713 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 91 @Pittsburgh L 60 - 78 9% -5  0 - 1 -9 -10 F F A+ +1 C- B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 225 James Madison W 82 - 72 54% +8  1 - 1 +3 +4 F D B+ -1 D+ A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 15 362 Binghamton W 90 - 82 89% +14  2 - 1 -11 +4 D C+ D -15 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 18 332 Maryland Eastern Shore L 82 - 83 2OT 78% -3  2 - 2 -15 -6 F B F -8 F B- A+
 Sun, Nov 23 176 @Columbia L 70 - 95 24% -13  2 - 3 -23 -5 A- F F -17 F D- D+
 Fri, Nov 28 182 Siena L 63 - 70 35% -3  2 - 4 -9 -8 F B+ F -1 F A+ B
 Sat, Nov 29 343 Maine W 65 - 61 73% +3  3 - 4 -8 -2 A+ F F -5 D+ F C+
 Sun, Nov 30 228 @American L 66 - 92 32% -8  3 - 5 -27 -8 F F A+ -18 F D- C
 Sat, Dec 6 361 @Morgan St. W 84 - 80 76% +1  4 - 5 -9 -1 F A- F -8 F B C
 Sat, Dec 13 355 Delaware St. L 76 - 81 86% -5  4 - 6 -22 +3 C D F -26 F A+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 63 @Wake Forest L 68 - 71 6% -2  4 - 7 +9 -1 F B- A+ +10 A A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 20 345 @NC Central W 74 - 72 63% +2  5 - 7 -7 -4 F B F -3 D+ A D+
 Wed, Dec 31 131 Winthrop W 82 - 70 33% +7  6 - 7 1 - 0 +11 +10 A- A+ D- +1 A+ B+ D-
 Sat, Jan 3 97 @High Point L 67 - 80 10% -7  6 - 8 1 - 1 -5 -1 C C+ F -5 D+ C B-
 Wed, Jan 7 203 @UNC Asheville L 61 - 72 29% -6  6 - 9 1 - 2 -11 -5 F F C -7 F A D
 Sat, Jan 10 268 Presbyterian W 77 - 70 62% +10  7 - 9 2 - 2 -2 +9 B+ B+ C -10 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 254 @Radford L 83 - 85 36% -11  7 - 10 2 - 3 -4 +7 C+ A+ F -12 F A+ D+
 Wed, Jan 21 363 Gardner-Webb W 91 - 56 93% +17  8 - 10 3 - 3 +13 +7 C A+ F +6 C+ C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 234 Charleston Southern W 80 - 79 55%
 Thu, Jan 29 302 @South Carolina Upstate L 74 - 75 47%
 Sat, Jan 31 97 High Point L 76 - 84 23%
 Wed, Feb 4 363 @Gardner-Webb W 84 - 74 83%
 Sat, Feb 7 131 @Winthrop L 73 - 83 17%
 Thu, Feb 12 203 UNC Asheville W 74 - 73 50%
 Sat, Feb 14 302 South Carolina Upstate W 77 - 72 69%
 Thu, Feb 19 268 @Presbyterian L 70 - 73 39%
 Sat, Feb 21 234 @Charleston Southern L 77 - 82 34%
 Sat, Feb 28 254 Radford W 82 - 80 58%
Totals 13 - 15 8 - 8 -6 -2 D C F -3 F B C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.2 8.8 7.8 2.6 0.1 21.5 3rd
4th 1.3 10.4 8.0 1.1 0.0 20.9 4th
5th 0.5 8.9 8.8 1.4 0.0 19.6 5th
6th 0.3 5.5 9.8 1.7 0.0 17.3 6th
7th 0.2 3.2 7.1 1.6 0.0 12.0 7th
8th 0.2 1.5 2.8 1.0 0.0 5.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.2 1.7 6.3 14.0 21.7 23.1 18.3 9.9 3.9 0.8 0.1 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 91.7% 0.1    0.1 0.1
12-4 18.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0
11-5 2.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.1% 0.1
12-4 0.8% 17.3% 17.3% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
11-5 3.9% 7.1% 7.1% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 3.7
10-6 9.9% 5.0% 5.0% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 9.4
9-7 18.3% 4.0% 4.0% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 17.6
8-8 23.1% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.0 0.8 22.3
7-9 21.7% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.5 21.2
6-10 14.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 13.9
5-11 6.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 6.2
4-12 1.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.7
3-13 0.2% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 15.7 96.8 0.0%