Longwood
Big South
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.1#210
Expected Predictive Rating-7.6#282
Pace63.2#317
Improvement-1.6#291

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#209
First Shot-3.8#287
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#49
Layup/Dunks-2.3#250
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#78
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#182
Freethrows-2.8#328
Improvement+0.1#168

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#200
First Shot-1.8#240
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#114
Layups/Dunks+1.5#135
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#275
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#253
Freethrows-0.1#194
Improvement-1.7#314
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.0% 13.1% 9.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 79.6% 80.4% 55.8%
.500 or above in Conference 85.3% 85.6% 76.6%
Conference Champion 16.6% 16.9% 8.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
First Four3.5% 3.5% 4.3%
First Round11.3% 11.4% 8.1%
Second Round0.5% 0.4% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Delaware St. (Home) - 96.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 42 - 6
Quad 415 - 617 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 19   @ Iowa L 73-106 5%     0 - 1 -15.6 -1.6 -11.7
  Nov 19, 2021 320   American W 82-42 82%     1 - 1 +28.1 +12.1 +20.8
  Nov 20, 2021 211   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 82-55 62%     2 - 1 +21.9 +10.3 +13.4
  Nov 21, 2021 302   Western Carolina L 53-64 80%     2 - 2 -21.8 -24.3 +1.9
  Nov 26, 2021 228   @ Old Dominion L 61-62 42%     2 - 3 -1.1 -0.1 -1.2
  Nov 30, 2021 128   @ Georgetown L 83-91 24%     2 - 4 -2.5 +7.2 -9.4
  Dec 04, 2021 356   Delaware St. W 81-61 97%    
  Dec 11, 2021 314   Morgan St. W 75-65 82%    
  Dec 19, 2021 331   @ St. Francis Brooklyn W 72-66 72%    
  Dec 22, 2021 143   @ Abilene Christian L 63-70 27%    
  Dec 30, 2021 341   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 67-59 77%    
  Jan 05, 2022 338   @ Hampton W 71-63 75%    
  Jan 08, 2022 282   High Point W 66-59 76%    
  Jan 12, 2022 248   @ Radford L 62-63 49%    
  Jan 15, 2022 190   Gardner-Webb W 67-65 58%    
  Jan 19, 2022 179   Campbell W 62-60 57%    
  Jan 22, 2022 293   @ Presbyterian W 63-61 57%    
  Jan 26, 2022 281   N.C. A&T W 71-64 74%    
  Jan 29, 2022 146   Winthrop L 73-74 48%    
  Feb 02, 2022 270   @ UNC Asheville W 68-67 54%    
  Feb 05, 2022 349   @ Charleston Southern W 77-67 80%    
  Feb 09, 2022 334   South Carolina Upstate W 75-62 87%    
  Feb 12, 2022 281   @ N.C. A&T W 68-67 55%    
  Feb 16, 2022 282   @ High Point W 63-62 56%    
  Feb 19, 2022 338   Hampton W 74-60 89%    
  Feb 23, 2022 248   Radford W 66-60 69%    
  Feb 26, 2022 179   @ Campbell L 59-63 36%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 10 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.9 5.8 4.5 2.3 0.5 16.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 4.6 6.9 5.1 0.8 0.0 18.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 5.2 6.9 2.8 0.4 15.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.7 7.0 2.4 0.1 13.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 5.7 2.7 0.1 11.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 3.9 2.5 0.3 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.9 2.3 0.4 0.0 6.3 7th
8th 0.3 1.7 2.0 0.5 4.5 8th
9th 0.3 0.8 1.6 0.5 0.0 3.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.2 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.4 1.9 4.1 6.8 9.7 13.0 16.0 14.5 12.6 11.2 5.3 2.4 0.5 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
15-1 99.1% 2.3    2.0 0.3
14-2 85.5% 4.5    3.4 1.0 0.1
13-3 51.5% 5.8    2.7 2.3 0.8 0.0
12-4 22.7% 2.9    0.7 1.2 0.9 0.1
11-5 3.7% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 16.6% 16.6 9.5 5.0 1.9 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.5% 31.0% 31.0% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4
15-1 2.4% 41.6% 41.6% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 1.4
14-2 5.3% 29.9% 29.9% 15.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.4 3.7
13-3 11.2% 25.3% 25.3% 15.4 0.2 1.3 1.3 8.4
12-4 12.6% 19.2% 19.2% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 10.2
11-5 14.5% 14.0% 14.0% 15.9 0.3 1.8 12.5
10-6 16.0% 9.4% 9.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.4 14.5
9-7 13.0% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.0 0.9 12.1
8-8 9.7% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.4 9.3
7-9 6.8% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 6.7
6-10 4.1% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 4.0
5-11 1.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.9
4-12 1.4% 1.4
3-13 0.3% 0.3
2-14 0.2% 0.2
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16
Total 100% 13.0% 13.0% 0.0% 15.5 0.1 0.3 1.0 3.6 8.1 87.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.7 34.4 62.5 3.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%