Longwood
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.7 #261
Expected Predictive Rating -7.0 #277
Pace 70.0 #145
Improvement +4.0 #33

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #267 D+ C D- C+ C
Defense #244 D- B C+ C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #153 1.17 #161 +0.8 #150
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #124 0.73 #225 +0.5 #151
Three Pointers 38% #250 0.88 #334 -4.3 #317
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #268 -3.1 #266
Freethrows 0.32 #152 75% #92 0.24 #121
Second Chance 32.7% #121 0.93 #305 0.30 #197
Turnovers 20.4% #341
Total Offense -3.7 #267

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #126 1.33 #350 -4.7 #330
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #345 0.79 #240 +2.2 #32
Three Pointers 45% #62 1.07 #251 -3.3 #314
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #340 -5.8 #340
Freethrows 0.34 #301 70% #65 0.24 #267
Second Chance 29.7% #136 0.88 #22 0.26 #56
Turnovers 18.4% #94
Total Defense -2.0 #244

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.4% #222 1.9% #337
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.6% #278 9.3% #333
Possession Length 16.8 #125 17.4 #209
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #247 0.17 #188
Improvement +0.0 #183 +4.0 #18

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 3.5% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.5 16.0
.500 or above 17.1% 40.9% 12.7%
.500 or above in Conference 55.8% 84.3% 50.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.9% 1.6% 2.0%
First Round1.9% 2.8% 1.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Winthrop (Away) - 15.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 51 - 10
Quad 412 - 713 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 93 @Pittsburgh L 60 - 78 9% -5  0 - 1 -9 -9 F D A+ -0 D+ B+ B+
 Wed, Nov 12 221 James Madison W 82 - 72 52% +8  1 - 1 +4 +4 F+ D B -0 C- A D+
 Sat, Nov 15 361 Binghamton W 90 - 82 89% +14  2 - 1 -11 +3 D C+ D -15 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 18 347 Maryland Eastern Shore L 82 - 83 2OT 81% -3  2 - 2 -16 -6 F B F -10 F B- A+
 Sun, Nov 23 183 @Columbia L 70 - 95 25% -13  2 - 3 -24 -5 B+ F F -18 F D- D
 Fri, Nov 28 177 Siena L 63 - 70 33% -3  2 - 4 -8 -9 F+ B F +0 F A+ B-
 Sat, Nov 29 345 Maine W 65 - 61 72% +3  3 - 4 -8 -3 A F+ F -5 C- F C+
 Sun, Nov 30 252 @American L 66 - 92 36% -8  3 - 5 -28 -8 F F A -19 F F+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 354 @Morgan St. W 84 - 80 69% +1  4 - 5 -7 +0 D B+ F+ -7 F+ B+ D+
 Sat, Dec 13 353 Delaware St. L 76 - 81 85% -5  4 - 6 -22 +4 C C- F -26 F A F
 Wed, Dec 17 75 @Wake Forest L 68 - 71 7% -2  4 - 7 +8 -2 F B- B+ +10 A- A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 342 @NC Central W 74 - 72 62% +2  5 - 7 -7 -4 D- B- F -3 C B D+
 Wed, Dec 31 123 Winthrop W 82 - 70 32% +7  6 - 7 1 - 0 +11 +10 B+ A+ D +1 A+ B- D-
 Sat, Jan 3 96 @High Point L 67 - 80 10% -7  6 - 8 1 - 1 -4 -1 C C C- -5 C- C B-
 Wed, Jan 7 209 @UNC Asheville L 61 - 72 29% -6  6 - 9 1 - 2 -11 -6 D- D- C+ -6 D- B+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 263 Presbyterian W 77 - 70 62% +10  7 - 9 2 - 2 -2 +8 B+ B C -10 F A C+
 Sat, Jan 17 233 @Radford L 83 - 85 33% -11  7 - 10 2 - 3 -3 +9 C+ A+ D- -12 F A+ D+
 Wed, Jan 21 363 Gardner-Webb W 91 - 56 93% +17  8 - 10 3 - 3 +13 +8 C+ A+ D +6 C+ C+ A+
 Fri, Jan 23 253 Charleston Southern W 81 - 79 OT 59% +6  9 - 10 4 - 3 -6 -6 C F F -0 D C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 29 300 @South Carolina Upstate L 60 - 65 48% -2  9 - 11 4 - 4 -10 -13 F+ D F +3 F A A+
 Sat, Jan 31 96 High Point L 59 - 71 22% -6  9 - 12 4 - 5 -9 -9 F+ D+ F -2 C+ A+ C-
 Wed, Feb 4 363 @Gardner-Webb W 86 - 66 83% +9  10 - 12 5 - 5 +4 +4 B+ F C- -0 F A- A-
 Sat, Feb 7 123 @Winthrop L 71 - 82 16%
 Thu, Feb 12 209 UNC Asheville W 72 - 71 52%
 Sat, Feb 14 300 South Carolina Upstate W 74 - 69 70%
 Thu, Feb 19 263 @Presbyterian L 69 - 72 40%
 Sat, Feb 21 253 @Charleston Southern L 74 - 78 36%
 Sat, Feb 28 233 Radford W 80 - 79 56%
Totals 13 - 15 8 - 8 -6 -4 D+ C D- -2 D- B C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 2.8 10.7 5.5 0.7 19.6 3rd
4th 1.7 15.5 7.8 0.4 25.3 4th
5th 1.6 16.4 11.3 0.3 29.6 5th
6th 0.4 8.8 9.1 0.9 19.2 6th
7th 1.5 3.6 0.3 5.4 7th
8th 0.7 0.1 0.8 8th
9th 9th
Total 2.6 14.0 27.6 30.4 18.8 5.9 0.7 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.7% 11.4% 11.4% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.6
10-6 5.9% 2.4% 2.4% 15.6 0.1 0.1 5.8
9-7 18.8% 3.8% 3.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 18.1
8-8 30.4% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 1.0 29.4
7-9 27.6% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.5 27.1
6-10 14.0% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.3 13.7
5-11 2.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.6
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 15.9 97.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 0.8%