Gardner-Webb
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -18.4 #363
Expected Predictive Rating -19.7 #361
Pace 73.1 #65
Improvement +0.2 #180

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #357 D- D- F+ D B-
Defense #360 F+ D D C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #105 1.01 #335 -1.4 #232
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #253 0.58 #360 -2.7 #311
Three Pointers 41% #170 0.92 #300 -1.7 #243
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #335 -5.9 #333
Freethrows 0.27 #295 69% #293 0.18 #319
Second Chance 23.8% #342 0.95 #289 0.23 #343
Turnovers 20.9% #349
Total Offense -9.7 #357

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #104 1.37 #363 -6.2 #351
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #242 0.72 #107 +0.8 #123
Three Pointers 40% #213 1.15 #339 -2.1 #286
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #357 -7.4 #361
Freethrows 0.29 #118 72% #157 0.21 #123
Second Chance 35.6% #339 1.06 #244 0.38 #318
Turnovers 14.4% #321
Total Defense -8.7 #360

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #98 1.0% #263
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -12.8% #351 12.6% #359
Possession Length 16.8 #120 16.7 #74
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #158 0.21 #298
Improvement -1.2 #255 +1.4 #111

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 99.7% 97.8% 99.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Winthrop (Home) - 5.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 50 - 8
Quad 30 - 70 - 15
Quad 41 - 132 - 28


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 64 @Minnesota L 60 - 87 1% -25  0 - 1 -16 -9 F+ F+ C -6 F C- B
 Fri, Nov 7 33 @Clemson L 59 - 97 0% -21  0 - 2 -20 -3 C D+ D- -18 C+ F F
 Sat, Nov 15 217 @Elon L 84 - 95 5% -16  0 - 3 -11 +2 C D- D+ -12 F F B
 Tue, Nov 18 98 @DePaul L 62 - 93 2% -21  0 - 4 -23 -12 F+ C- F+ -7 F A C
 Sat, Nov 22 137 @Richmond L 67 - 102 3% -28  0 - 5 -31 -9 B- F F -19 F F D-
 Wed, Nov 26 174 Navy L 51 - 84 6% -16  0 - 6 -34 -18 F F+ F -18 D- F C+
 Fri, Nov 28 274 SE Louisiana L 68 - 76 14% +2  0 - 7 -15 -6 C- C+ F -9 C C+ D-
 Sat, Nov 29 120 @UNC Wilmington L 62 - 88 2% -12  0 - 8 -20 -8 C- F F -12 F C+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 203 @Queens L 74 - 107 5% -14  0 - 9 -33 -7 F A C+ -24 F F D+
 Sat, Dec 6 266 Georgia Southern L 84 - 88 18% -3  0 - 10 -13 -0 C+ F+ C- -12 D- C F
 Mon, Dec 15 198 Wofford L 57 - 83 12% -11  0 - 11 -31 -20 F F F -12 C F C+
 Sun, Dec 21 16 @Tennessee L 52 - 94 0% -26  0 - 12 -21 -10 D D- C -11 F C F
 Wed, Dec 31 259 Charleston Southern L 79 - 89 18% +1  0 - 13 0 - 1 -18 -1 F+ B D+ -17 D- F D
 Sat, Jan 3 131 @Winthrop L 77 - 88 3% +5  0 - 14 0 - 2 -6 +8 A- F A+ -15 F A- D-
 Wed, Jan 7 95 @High Point L 49 - 104 2% -38  0 - 15 0 - 3 -47 -28 F F+ F -12 C- F D
 Wed, Jan 14 231 Radford L 80 - 89 14% -5  0 - 16 0 - 4 -16 +2 D+ C- A -18 D C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 270 Presbyterian L 55 - 92 19% -20  0 - 17 0 - 5 -46 -22 F D- F -24 F D- F
 Wed, Jan 21 261 @Longwood L 56 - 91 8% -17  0 - 18 0 - 6 -38 -17 F D+ F -21 F F D-
 Fri, Jan 23 298 South Carolina Upstate W 67 - 65 24% -3  1 - 18 1 - 6 -9 -6 D- C- D -3 C+ B- C-
 Thu, Jan 29 216 @UNC Asheville L 50 - 69 5% -12  1 - 19 1 - 7 -19 -14 F D+ F -8 F+ C D-
 Wed, Feb 4 261 Longwood L 66 - 86 18% -9  1 - 20 1 - 8 -29 -11 D+ F F -18 F A F
 Sat, Feb 7 270 @Presbyterian L 62 - 68 9% +0  1 - 21 1 - 9 -9 -5 B- F D -4 D B- C
 Thu, Feb 12 131 Winthrop L 70 - 87 5%
 Sat, Feb 14 95 @High Point L 67 - 94 1%
 Tue, Feb 17 259 @Charleston Southern L 71 - 87 7%
 Thu, Feb 19 231 @Radford L 73 - 90 5%
 Thu, Feb 26 216 UNC Asheville L 68 - 80 13%
 Sat, Feb 28 298 @South Carolina Upstate L 68 - 81 11%
Totals 1 - 27 1 - 15 -18 -10 D- D- F+ -9 F+ D D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.3 1.3 0.3 1.9 8th
9th 65.9 27.7 4.1 0.2 97.9 9th
Total 65.9 28.0 5.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9 0.0% 0.0
6-10
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12 0.6% 0.6
3-13 5.5% 5.5
2-14 28.0% 28.0
1-15 65.9% 65.9
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 58.1%