Gardner-Webb
Big South
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#196
Expected Predictive Rating-3.6#234
Pace65.8#255
Improvement+0.3#145

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#302
First Shot-3.6#300
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#218
Layup/Dunks+2.0#92
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#178
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#318
Freethrows-1.4#293
Improvement+1.0#38

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#97
First Shot+1.3#134
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#62
Layups/Dunks+4.8#28
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#311
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#205
Freethrows-1.5#285
Improvement-0.7#292
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.7% 19.1% 15.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 59.9% 74.6% 41.3%
.500 or above in Conference 94.6% 98.5% 89.7%
Conference Champion 4.2% 6.6% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.6% 6.1% 9.5%
First Round14.7% 16.7% 12.2%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charleston Southern (Away) - 55.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 71 - 10
Quad 412 - 414 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 105   @ Colorado St. L 63-65 22%     0 - 1 +4.7 -7.8 +12.4
  Nov 10, 2022 135   @ Stephen F. Austin L 71-86 28%     0 - 2 -10.2 +1.9 -12.4
  Nov 15, 2022 25   @ North Carolina L 66-72 6%     0 - 3 +9.9 -0.9 +10.9
  Nov 18, 2022 195   @ Wofford L 58-60 39%     0 - 4 -0.6 -12.7 +11.9
  Nov 19, 2022 276   N.C. A&T W 66-64 67%     1 - 4 -3.9 -8.0 +4.2
  Nov 26, 2022 255   @ NC Central L 53-58 53%     1 - 5 -7.1 -18.0 +10.7
  Nov 30, 2022 260   @ Western Carolina W 71-55 54%     2 - 5 +13.5 +6.6 +9.3
  Dec 03, 2022 157   Chattanooga L 71-82 53%     2 - 6 -13.1 -9.3 -3.4
  Dec 10, 2022 177   @ Old Dominion L 43-44 35%     2 - 7 +1.5 -26.2 +27.6
  Dec 17, 2022 255   NC Central W 72-70 72%     3 - 7 -5.5 -4.7 -0.9
  Dec 29, 2022 278   Charleston Southern W 83-63 76%     4 - 7 1 - 0 +11.3 +6.4 +6.3
  Dec 31, 2022 302   @ High Point W 80-73 64%     5 - 7 2 - 0 +1.9 +2.1 -0.4
  Jan 04, 2023 257   @ Campbell L 58-63 54%     5 - 8 2 - 1 -7.4 -9.2 +1.3
  Jan 07, 2023 178   Radford L 59-63 56%     5 - 9 2 - 2 -7.0 -6.1 -1.5
  Jan 11, 2023 328   @ Presbyterian W 79-78 OT 71%     6 - 9 3 - 2 -6.2 +0.6 -6.9
  Jan 14, 2023 189   UNC Asheville L 67-72 OT 60%     6 - 10 3 - 3 -8.8 -11.7 +3.2
  Jan 18, 2023 181   @ Longwood L 59-64 36%     6 - 11 3 - 4 -2.7 -7.7 +4.7
  Jan 21, 2023 247   @ Winthrop W 63-61 52%     7 - 11 4 - 4 +0.2 -7.1 +7.5
  Jan 25, 2023 298   South Carolina Upstate W 78-66 80%     8 - 11 5 - 4 +1.7 +11.0 -7.9
  Jan 28, 2023 302   High Point W 86-58 81%     9 - 11 6 - 4 +17.6 +12.2 +6.8
  Feb 01, 2023 278   @ Charleston Southern W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 04, 2023 328   Presbyterian W 68-57 86%    
  Feb 08, 2023 178   @ Radford L 60-64 36%    
  Feb 11, 2023 257   Campbell W 65-59 73%    
  Feb 15, 2023 247   Winthrop W 71-65 71%    
  Feb 18, 2023 189   @ UNC Asheville L 64-67 38%    
  Feb 22, 2023 181   Longwood W 64-62 57%    
  Feb 25, 2023 298   @ South Carolina Upstate W 66-62 63%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big South Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 2.3 1.4 4.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 5.7 5.3 0.3 12.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.9 10.3 11.3 1.7 0.0 25.3 3rd
4th 0.2 4.8 16.9 16.0 3.5 0.0 41.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 6.2 3.4 0.3 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.0 1.3 0.1 3.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.0 1.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 1.0 4.3 12.4 22.3 27.7 21.0 9.4 1.8 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 80.3% 1.4    0.7 0.7 0.1
13-5 25.0% 2.3    0.3 1.0 0.9 0.2
12-6 1.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.2% 4.2 1.0 1.7 1.1 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 1.8% 34.4% 34.4% 14.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.2
13-5 9.4% 26.8% 26.8% 15.1 0.3 1.7 0.5 6.9
12-6 21.0% 22.7% 22.7% 15.4 0.1 2.8 2.0 16.3
11-7 27.7% 17.6% 17.6% 15.9 0.5 4.4 22.8
10-8 22.3% 13.2% 13.2% 16.0 0.1 2.9 19.3
9-9 12.4% 11.3% 11.3% 16.0 1.4 11.0
8-10 4.3% 10.3% 10.3% 16.0 0.4 3.9
7-11 1.0% 8.6% 8.6% 16.0 0.1 0.9
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.7% 17.7% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.7 5.3 11.7 82.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.8% 34.4% 14.4 2.3 17.9 13.8 0.3
Lose Out 0.1%