Gardner-Webb
Big South
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#190
Expected Predictive Rating-2.5#217
Pace66.6#246
Improvement+3.7#12

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#188
First Shot-1.8#222
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#96
Layup/Dunks+2.8#83
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#264
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#173
Freethrows-2.7#324
Improvement+2.9#9

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#198
First Shot-2.6#264
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#74
Layups/Dunks+2.1#107
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#248
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#266
Freethrows-1.6#281
Improvement+0.9#96
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.8% 20.5% 14.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 76.6% 87.6% 69.8%
.500 or above in Conference 89.7% 93.2% 87.5%
Conference Champion 22.4% 28.2% 18.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four2.8% 2.6% 2.9%
First Round15.7% 19.8% 13.2%
Second Round0.9% 1.5% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Carolina (Away) - 37.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 32 - 43 - 8
Quad 414 - 416 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 147   @ UNLV L 58-64 29%     0 - 1 -1.5 -12.8 +11.4
  Nov 13, 2021 24   @ Arkansas L 69-86 6%     0 - 2 -0.5 +4.0 -4.4
  Nov 16, 2021 5   @ Duke L 52-92 3%     0 - 3 -19.4 -12.8 -5.0
  Nov 27, 2021 302   Western Carolina W 87-59 82%     1 - 3 +17.2 +11.9 +6.8
  Nov 29, 2021 337   NC Central W 83-58 90%     2 - 3 +9.6 +1.1 +7.4
  Dec 04, 2021 178   @ East Carolina L 68-71 38%    
  Dec 08, 2021 119   Wofford L 67-68 45%    
  Dec 11, 2021 261   @ VMI W 70-69 54%    
  Dec 15, 2021 337   @ NC Central W 73-65 78%    
  Dec 29, 2021 159   @ Georgia L 68-73 33%    
  Jan 05, 2022 349   @ Charleston Southern W 80-70 82%    
  Jan 08, 2022 338   Hampton W 76-62 90%    
  Jan 12, 2022 293   Presbyterian W 68-59 79%    
  Jan 15, 2022 210   @ Longwood L 65-67 42%    
  Jan 19, 2022 334   South Carolina Upstate W 77-64 88%    
  Jan 22, 2022 146   @ Winthrop L 73-79 30%    
  Jan 26, 2022 270   @ UNC Asheville W 70-68 57%    
  Jan 29, 2022 248   Radford W 68-62 72%    
  Feb 02, 2022 282   @ High Point W 66-64 57%    
  Feb 05, 2022 281   N.C. A&T W 73-65 76%    
  Feb 09, 2022 179   @ Campbell L 61-64 39%    
  Feb 12, 2022 349   Charleston Southern W 83-67 92%    
  Feb 16, 2022 146   Winthrop W 76-75 51%    
  Feb 19, 2022 293   @ Presbyterian W 65-62 60%    
  Feb 23, 2022 270   UNC Asheville W 73-65 75%    
  Feb 26, 2022 334   @ South Carolina Upstate W 74-67 74%    
Projected Record 15 - 11 11 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 3.5 7.0 6.9 3.5 0.7 22.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 4.2 8.2 4.5 0.6 0.0 18.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.9 7.5 3.5 0.5 17.2 3rd
4th 0.3 3.4 6.0 2.9 0.2 12.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.2 4.9 2.6 0.2 10.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 4.1 1.9 0.2 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.3 2.0 0.2 5.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 1.8 0.5 0.0 3.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 1.2 0.3 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.3 0.5 1.0 3.0 5.6 9.1 11.3 14.7 15.6 15.3 12.0 7.5 3.5 0.7 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
15-1 99.9% 3.5    3.1 0.4
14-2 92.2% 6.9    5.3 1.6 0.1
13-3 58.3% 7.0    3.2 3.1 0.7
12-4 22.9% 3.5    1.0 1.5 0.9 0.2
11-5 5.3% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 22.4% 22.4 13.3 6.7 2.0 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.7% 45.6% 45.6% 13.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-1 3.5% 43.8% 43.8% 13.9 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.9
14-2 7.5% 36.7% 36.7% 14.4 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.3 0.2 4.8
13-3 12.0% 26.9% 26.9% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.8 8.7
12-4 15.3% 21.4% 21.4% 15.4 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.7 12.1
11-5 15.6% 16.3% 16.3% 15.7 0.1 0.6 1.8 13.1
10-6 14.7% 11.2% 11.2% 15.7 0.1 0.4 1.2 13.1
9-7 11.3% 8.2% 8.2% 15.9 0.1 0.9 10.4
8-8 9.1% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.0 0.5 8.6
7-9 5.6% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 5.5
6-10 3.0% 3.0
5-11 1.0% 1.0
4-12 0.5% 0.5
3-13 0.3% 0.3
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 16.8% 16.8% 0.0% 15.1 0.2 1.1 2.6 5.8 7.2 83.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.3 67.7 32.3