UNC Asheville
Big South
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.7 #205
Expected Predictive Rating -5.6 #250
Pace 65.5 #267
Improvement +2.0 #94

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #224 C- C D+ C+ F
Defense #190 C- C+ C- C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 28% #358 1.13 #204 -6.2 #348
2 Pt. Jumpers 38% #2 0.81 #109 +7.6 #1
Three Pointers 33% #326 1.08 #87 -2.8 #285
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #221 -1.4 #221
Freethrows 0.34 #61 69% #303 0.24 #120
Second Chance 29.2% #223 1.05 #169 0.31 #203
Turnovers 18.0% #281
Total Offense -2.0 #224

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #33 1.16 #179 -3.5 #295
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #232 0.89 #348 -0.6 #227
Three Pointers 37% #287 0.98 #127 +2.7 #81
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #223 -1.3 #223
Freethrows 0.31 #217 68% #23 0.21 #148
Second Chance 31.2% #211 0.94 #51 0.29 #114
Turnovers 15.6% #230
Total Defense -0.7 #190

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -5.9% #364 1.3% #292
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.3% #124 1.2% #208
Possession Length 19.0 #328 17.5 #206
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #269 0.19 #259
Improvement +0.7 #145 +1.3 #100

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.1% 9.9% 6.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 13.0% 31.4% 7.7%
.500 or above in Conference 79.8% 94.6% 75.5%
Conference Champion 0.2% 1.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.1% 2.3% 3.3%
First Round6.0% 9.0% 5.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Winthrop (Away) - 22.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 10
Quad 411 - 612 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 98 @Wichita St. L 58 - 75 15% -4  0 - 1 -9 -9 F A+ F -1 B+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 250 @Georgia Southern L 90 - 93 47% +1  0 - 2 -5 +3 C+ B F+ -7 D- A+ F+
 Tue, Nov 11 174 Lipscomb W 69 - 64 55% +4  1 - 2 +1 +0 B+ B- F +1 A C C
 Wed, Nov 19 263 @Western Carolina L 73 - 80 50% -1  1 - 3 -10 +3 B+ F D -13 C D+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 229 Tennessee St. L 73 - 75 65% +3  1 - 4 -9 -7 A+ D- F -2 C+ D- A-
 Sun, Nov 30 196 Appalachian St. W 67 - 55 60% +8  2 - 4 +7 -1 D+ A+ F +9 B B C
 Tue, Dec 2 309 UNC Greensboro W 82 - 77 72% +0  3 - 4 -4 +8 C+ B C -12 F C B
 Sat, Dec 6 25 @North Carolina St. L 63 - 75 3% -3  3 - 5 +7 +1 D+ C C+ +6 A- D- A
 Wed, Dec 10 93 Miami (OH) L 87 - 90 OT 29% -6  3 - 6 +0 +4 B C- C+ -3 C A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 138 St. Thomas L 59 - 80 46% -13  3 - 7 -23 -13 F+ C- F -11 D C- D+
 Sun, Dec 21 119 @UAB L 47 - 72 21% -13  3 - 8 -19 -19 F F F+ -2 D+ A F+
 Wed, Dec 31 99 High Point L 69 - 87 32% -11  3 - 9 0 - 1 -16 -3 F+ C A+ -14 F D A-
 Sat, Jan 3 244 @Charleston Southern L 83 - 86 46% -6  3 - 10 0 - 2 -5 +8 F A+ C+ -13 F F A
 Wed, Jan 7 261 Longwood W 72 - 61 72% +6  4 - 10 1 - 2 +2 +2 C D+ B- +1 C+ A F+
 Sat, Jan 10 243 @Radford W 91 - 72 45% +9  5 - 10 2 - 2 +17 +11 A+ F C +5 A A F
 Wed, Jan 14 255 @Presbyterian L 70 - 71 49% -6  5 - 11 2 - 3 -3 +1 F C C -4 F A- B-
 Sat, Jan 17 123 Winthrop L 67 - 69 43% -6  5 - 12 2 - 4 -3 -7 F D- B +5 A- B+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 301 @South Carolina Upstate W 83 - 69 59% +6  6 - 12 3 - 4 +9 +14 A- D+ B- -5 F+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 363 Gardner-Webb W 69 - 50 95% +12  7 - 12 4 - 4 -2 -2 C- F+ C- +3 C+ C B
 Sat, Jan 31 123 @Winthrop L 70 - 78 22%
 Wed, Feb 4 301 South Carolina Upstate W 74 - 66 79%
 Thu, Feb 12 261 @Longwood L 72 - 73 49%
 Sat, Feb 14 255 Presbyterian W 71 - 65 70%
 Thu, Feb 19 99 @High Point L 72 - 83 16%
 Sat, Feb 21 243 Radford W 80 - 75 67%
 Thu, Feb 26 363 @Gardner-Webb W 80 - 68 87%
 Sat, Feb 28 244 Charleston Southern W 77 - 72 67%
Totals 12 - 15 9 - 7 -3 -2 C- C D+ -1 C- C+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 1.6 0.4 2.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.9 15.8 16.5 3.9 0.1 39.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 13.5 11.8 1.6 0.0 28.1 4th
5th 0.3 6.5 8.8 1.1 0.0 16.7 5th
6th 0.1 2.6 5.6 0.9 0.0 9.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 1.9 0.6 0.0 3.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.1 1.1 5.1 14.0 26.1 28.7 18.8 5.6 0.7 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 22.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
11-5 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.7% 11.3% 11.3% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
11-5 5.6% 11.9% 11.9% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 4.9
10-6 18.8% 9.8% 9.8% 15.1 0.1 1.5 0.3 16.9
9-7 28.7% 7.1% 7.1% 15.9 0.3 1.8 26.6
8-8 26.1% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 0.0 1.6 24.4
7-9 14.0% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.7 13.3
6-10 5.1% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.2 4.9
5-11 1.1% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-12 0.1% 0.1
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 7.1% 7.1% 0.0% 15.6 92.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%