Winthrop
Big South
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.5#146
Expected Predictive Rating+2.0#149
Pace80.5#13
Improvement+1.8#46

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#116
First Shot+2.7#105
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#225
Layup/Dunks+0.9#133
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#219
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.9#18
Freethrows-4.3#352
Improvement+0.3#129

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#183
First Shot-4.4#308
After Offensive Rebounds+3.9#13
Layups/Dunks-4.0#298
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#4
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#248
Freethrows-2.8#319
Improvement+1.5#57
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.7% 31.0% 23.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.4 14.9
.500 or above 91.9% 93.9% 82.4%
.500 or above in Conference 97.7% 97.9% 96.4%
Conference Champion 45.0% 46.7% 36.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four1.8% 1.6% 2.9%
First Round28.9% 30.2% 22.5%
Second Round2.2% 2.4% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hartford (Home) - 82.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 33 - 34 - 7
Quad 414 - 318 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 196   Mercer W 88-85 OT 72%     1 - 0 -1.5 +1.5 -3.4
  Nov 16, 2021 183   @ Middle Tennessee L 65-76 48%     1 - 1 -9.0 -8.1 -0.3
  Nov 20, 2021 77   @ Vanderbilt L 63-77 21%     1 - 2 -4.1 -6.2 +2.6
  Nov 22, 2021 60   @ Washington St. L 86-92 19%     1 - 3 +4.7 +10.7 -5.6
  Nov 27, 2021 145   @ Washington W 82-74 38%     2 - 3 +12.6 +2.7 +8.8
  Dec 01, 2021 265   Hartford W 82-72 83%    
  Dec 04, 2021 227   @ Coastal Carolina W 80-79 57%    
  Dec 07, 2021 105   Furman W 80-79 50%    
  Dec 15, 2021 273   @ Elon W 82-77 65%    
  Dec 20, 2021 38   Mississippi St. L 69-78 20%    
  Jan 05, 2022 282   @ High Point W 74-69 68%    
  Jan 08, 2022 179   Campbell W 71-66 70%    
  Jan 12, 2022 270   UNC Asheville W 82-72 82%    
  Jan 15, 2022 349   @ Charleston Southern W 90-77 89%    
  Jan 19, 2022 293   @ Presbyterian W 73-67 69%    
  Jan 22, 2022 190   Gardner-Webb W 79-73 70%    
  Jan 26, 2022 334   @ South Carolina Upstate W 84-74 82%    
  Jan 29, 2022 210   @ Longwood W 74-73 52%    
  Feb 02, 2022 281   N.C. A&T W 83-72 83%    
  Feb 05, 2022 338   @ Hampton W 83-72 83%    
  Feb 09, 2022 248   Radford W 76-67 79%    
  Feb 12, 2022 293   Presbyterian W 76-64 86%    
  Feb 16, 2022 190   @ Gardner-Webb L 75-76 49%    
  Feb 19, 2022 270   @ UNC Asheville W 79-75 64%    
  Feb 23, 2022 334   South Carolina Upstate W 87-71 92%    
  Feb 26, 2022 349   Charleston Southern W 93-74 96%    
Projected Record 17 - 9 12 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 4.7 11.4 14.1 10.3 3.5 45.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.9 8.3 6.3 1.3 0.0 21.6 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.3 6.3 3.2 0.3 0.0 13.5 3rd
4th 0.2 1.9 4.2 2.0 0.2 8.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 2.8 1.3 0.1 5.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.1 0.2 3.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.2 1.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 3.6 6.4 9.8 14.2 16.3 18.0 15.5 10.4 3.5 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 3.5    3.5
15-1 99.5% 10.3    9.8 0.6
14-2 91.2% 14.1    10.8 3.2 0.1
13-3 63.4% 11.4    5.7 4.8 0.9 0.0
12-4 28.9% 4.7    1.2 2.3 1.0 0.2
11-5 5.9% 0.8    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
10-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 45.0% 45.0 31.0 11.1 2.3 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 3.5% 62.3% 62.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.3
15-1 10.4% 47.8% 47.8% 13.7 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.2 0.9 0.0 5.4
14-2 15.5% 41.5% 41.5% 14.3 0.1 1.1 2.5 2.5 0.3 9.1
13-3 18.0% 33.6% 33.6% 14.7 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.2 0.7 11.9
12-4 16.3% 25.1% 25.1% 15.1 0.1 0.6 2.3 1.1 12.2
11-5 14.2% 23.2% 23.2% 15.4 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.7 10.9
10-6 9.8% 17.0% 17.0% 15.7 0.0 0.5 1.1 8.1
9-7 6.4% 9.1% 9.1% 15.9 0.1 0.5 5.8
8-8 3.6% 10.9% 10.9% 15.9 0.0 0.4 3.2
7-9 1.3% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 1.3
6-10 0.6% 0.6
5-11 0.2% 0.2
4-12 0.1% 0.1
3-13
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 29.7% 29.7% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.7 7.9 10.8 5.8 70.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 10.8 5.3 4.8 10.0 9.6 24.9 25.4 15.3 4.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%