Winthrop
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.2#107
Expected Predictive Rating+2.3#142
Pace73.6#82
Improvement-0.8#249

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#72
First Shot+3.6#84
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#133
Layup/Dunks-1.5#232
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#266
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.6#6
Freethrows-1.8#281
Improvement+2.1#33

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#181
First Shot+0.4#160
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#239
Layups/Dunks+0.7#154
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#261
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#197
Freethrows+1.3#111
Improvement-2.9#354
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.3% 34.1% 27.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.1 13.6
.500 or above 98.7% 99.0% 96.2%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 98.8% 98.1%
Conference Champion 41.2% 42.2% 34.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round33.3% 34.1% 27.6%
Second Round3.9% 4.1% 2.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.9% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coastal Carolina (Home) - 88.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 11 - 5
Quad 33 - 24 - 7
Quad 417 - 321 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 219 Queens W 81-74 77%     1 - 0 +3.4 +0.0 +3.2
  Fri, Nov 7 66 @George Mason L 90-96 24%     1 - 1 +5.5 +14.5 -8.4
  Tue, Nov 11 258 @Coastal Carolina L 66-72 73%     1 - 2 -8.3 -6.4 -1.8
  Sat, Nov 15 190 Mercer W 105-69 81%     2 - 2 +31.0 +14.0 +12.1
  Tue, Nov 18 25 @Arkansas L 83-84 12%     2 - 3 +16.2 +17.0 -0.8
  Sun, Nov 23 314 @Jackson St. W 80-62 82%     3 - 3 +12.6 +13.9 +0.3
  Tue, Nov 25 51 @Nebraska L 73-80 18%     3 - 4 +6.8 +7.4 -0.8
  Sat, Nov 29 349 South Carolina St. W 101-79 95%     4 - 4 +7.1 +17.5 -11.5
  Tue, Dec 2 225 @LIU Brooklyn W 94-92 OT 69%     5 - 4 +1.1 +13.3 -12.4
  Sat, Dec 6 258 Coastal Carolina W 84-72 88%    
  Thu, Dec 18 331 @North Dakota W 84-73 85%    
  Sun, Dec 28 29 @Texas Tech L 72-85 12%    
  Wed, Dec 31 287 @Longwood W 84-76 77%    
  Sat, Jan 3 355 Gardner-Webb W 92-71 97%    
  Wed, Jan 7 289 Charleston Southern W 86-72 90%    
  Sat, Jan 10 288 @South Carolina Upstate W 83-75 78%    
  Wed, Jan 14 84 High Point W 84-83 53%    
  Sat, Jan 17 205 @UNC Asheville W 81-77 64%    
  Wed, Jan 21 271 Radford W 89-76 89%    
  Sat, Jan 24 259 @Presbyterian W 74-67 72%    
  Sat, Jan 31 205 UNC Asheville W 84-74 82%    
  Wed, Feb 4 271 @Radford W 86-79 74%    
  Sat, Feb 7 287 Longwood W 87-73 90%    
  Thu, Feb 12 355 @Gardner-Webb W 89-74 90%    
  Thu, Feb 19 288 South Carolina Upstate W 86-72 90%    
  Sat, Feb 21 84 @High Point L 81-86 32%    
  Thu, Feb 26 289 @Charleston Southern W 83-75 77%    
  Sat, Feb 28 259 Presbyterian W 77-64 86%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 3.4 9.4 14.3 10.2 3.2 41.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.3 9.1 14.0 11.2 3.9 41.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.1 3.3 1.3 0.1 11.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.1 4.3 8.2 13.2 18.7 20.7 18.2 10.2 3.2 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 3.2    3.2
15-1 100.0% 10.2    9.0 1.2
14-2 78.5% 14.3    9.6 4.7 0.0
13-3 45.3% 9.4    4.6 4.5 0.3
12-4 18.1% 3.4    1.2 1.7 0.4 0.0
11-5 5.2% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
10-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 41.2% 41.2 27.8 12.4 1.0 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 3.2% 57.4% 57.4% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 1.4
15-1 10.2% 50.3% 50.3% 12.4 0.0 0.4 2.5 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.1
14-2 18.2% 43.3% 43.3% 12.9 0.1 2.4 4.0 1.3 0.1 10.3
13-3 20.7% 36.7% 36.7% 13.2 0.0 1.2 3.8 2.3 0.3 0.0 13.1
12-4 18.7% 28.7% 28.7% 13.6 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.3 0.5 0.0 13.3
11-5 13.2% 23.9% 23.9% 13.9 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.6 0.0 10.0
10-6 8.2% 17.5% 17.5% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 6.8
9-7 4.3% 13.3% 13.3% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 3.7
8-8 2.1% 14.3% 14.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.8
7-9 0.8% 6.3% 6.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
6-10 0.3% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-11 0.1% 9.5% 9.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 33.3% 33.3% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 7.5 13.2 8.8 2.4 0.3 66.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 10.5 8.0 13.8 8.0 59.8 10.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%