South Carolina Upstate
Big South
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.8#334
Expected Predictive Rating-10.0#309
Pace70.2#153
Improvement+0.7#122

Offense
Total Offense-4.8#301
First Shot-4.8#309
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#185
Layup/Dunks-4.0#309
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#133
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#158
Freethrows-1.7#285
Improvement+1.9#29

Defense
Total Defense-6.9#341
First Shot-2.4#259
After Offensive Rebounds-4.5#348
Layups/Dunks-3.3#279
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#108
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#94
Freethrows-2.6#310
Improvement-1.2#282
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 2.2% 3.2% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 14.9% 17.5% 10.3%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 24.5% 21.6% 29.5%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: NC Central (Home) - 63.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 30 - 60 - 11
Quad 47 - 97 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 98   @ South Carolina L 60-78 4%     0 - 1 -10.0 -14.7 +7.2
  Nov 12, 2021 223   @ Charlotte L 64-76 13%     0 - 2 -11.7 -5.1 -7.3
  Nov 18, 2021 123   @ East Tennessee St. L 43-56 6%     0 - 3 -7.2 -21.7 +13.0
  Nov 23, 2021 354   @ South Carolina St. W 82-78 61%     1 - 3 -10.5 -2.0 -8.7
  Nov 27, 2021 105   Furman L 77-87 12%     1 - 4 -8.7 +6.0 -15.2
  Dec 01, 2021 337   NC Central W 73-69 63%    
  Dec 04, 2021 302   Western Carolina L 76-77 46%    
  Dec 11, 2021 81   @ Wake Forest L 62-84 2%    
  Dec 14, 2021 18   @ Tennessee L 57-86 0.3%   
  Dec 21, 2021 76   @ Ohio L 64-86 2%    
  Jan 05, 2022 248   Radford L 65-69 36%    
  Jan 08, 2022 293   @ Presbyterian L 62-70 24%    
  Jan 12, 2022 282   High Point L 66-68 41%    
  Jan 15, 2022 270   @ UNC Asheville L 68-77 22%    
  Jan 19, 2022 190   @ Gardner-Webb L 64-77 12%    
  Jan 22, 2022 349   Charleston Southern W 81-75 71%    
  Jan 26, 2022 146   Winthrop L 74-84 18%    
  Jan 29, 2022 281   @ N.C. A&T L 68-76 24%    
  Feb 02, 2022 338   @ Hampton L 71-73 44%    
  Feb 05, 2022 179   Campbell L 61-69 25%    
  Feb 09, 2022 210   @ Longwood L 62-75 13%    
  Feb 12, 2022 270   UNC Asheville L 71-74 41%    
  Feb 16, 2022 293   Presbyterian L 65-67 46%    
  Feb 19, 2022 349   @ Charleston Southern L 78-79 49%    
  Feb 23, 2022 146   @ Winthrop L 71-87 8%    
  Feb 26, 2022 190   Gardner-Webb L 67-74 26%    
Projected Record 7 - 19 5 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.4 3rd
4th 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 2.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.3 5th
6th 0.2 1.8 2.7 1.0 0.0 5.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 3.8 1.6 0.2 7.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 5.6 3.1 0.3 10.8 8th
9th 0.1 2.3 6.7 5.2 1.1 15.4 9th
10th 0.3 2.8 7.8 6.5 1.3 0.1 18.8 10th
11th 0.3 3.7 8.3 5.0 0.9 0.0 18.3 11th
12th 0.9 4.2 5.5 3.0 0.8 0.0 14.5 12th
Total 0.9 4.5 9.5 14.2 16.1 15.9 14.0 10.0 6.6 4.3 2.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2
13-3 30.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-4 23.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 2.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-6 0.9% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.0% 0.0
14-2
13-3 0.1% 17.6% 17.6% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-4 0.4% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3
11-5 0.9% 4.7% 4.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.9
10-6 2.6% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.1 2.5
9-7 4.3% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 4.2
8-8 6.6% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 6.5
7-9 10.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 9.9
6-10 14.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.9
5-11 15.9% 15.9
4-12 16.1% 16.1
3-13 14.2% 14.2
2-14 9.5% 9.5
1-15 4.5% 4.5
0-16 0.9% 0.9
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.4 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%