South Carolina Upstate
Big South
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.0#306
Expected Predictive Rating-5.8#270
Pace69.4#140
Improvement+0.4#139

Offense
Total Offense-5.5#322
First Shot-4.3#308
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#269
Layup/Dunks+0.8#133
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#150
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#324
Freethrows-1.0#254
Improvement-1.1#322

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#250
First Shot-0.9#205
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#319
Layups/Dunks-1.8#257
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#7
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#79
Freethrows-4.3#360
Improvement+1.5#18
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.1% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.6% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 10.1% 20.6% 4.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.5% 0.9% 5.0%
First Four0.7% 1.0% 0.5%
First Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Asheville (Home) - 35.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 71 - 10
Quad 48 - 810 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 24   @ Duke L 38-84 2%     0 - 1 -30.0 -28.1 -0.6
  Nov 15, 2022 60   @ Clemson L 70-81 4%     0 - 2 +0.6 +9.2 -9.4
  Nov 18, 2022 246   Coastal Carolina W 79-78 47%     1 - 2 -6.1 +3.7 -9.8
  Nov 21, 2022 168   @ Air Force L 56-83 16%     1 - 3 -24.2 -10.4 -16.1
  Nov 25, 2022 229   @ South Carolina L 53-68 24%     1 - 4 -15.7 -10.1 -8.3
  Dec 03, 2022 260   @ Western Carolina W 79-64 30%     2 - 4 +12.4 +4.7 +7.8
  Dec 10, 2022 355   South Carolina St. W 89-84 OT 80%     3 - 4 -12.1 -2.0 -10.5
  Dec 13, 2022 140   @ Florida St. L 63-80 13%     3 - 5 -12.6 -9.6 -2.8
  Dec 20, 2022 150   @ Kennesaw St. L 56-65 14%     3 - 6 -5.4 -13.9 +8.3
  Dec 29, 2022 244   Winthrop W 70-62 46%     4 - 6 1 - 0 +1.0 -10.3 +11.3
  Dec 31, 2022 280   @ Charleston Southern L 85-90 33%     4 - 7 1 - 1 -8.6 +7.1 -15.8
  Jan 04, 2023 178   @ Radford W 65-60 16%     5 - 7 2 - 1 +7.5 -0.1 +8.0
  Jan 07, 2023 304   High Point W 76-57 60%     6 - 7 3 - 1 +8.5 -7.7 +14.8
  Jan 11, 2023 255   Campbell L 63-78 48%     6 - 8 3 - 2 -22.6 -12.5 -10.4
  Jan 14, 2023 181   @ Longwood L 65-72 17%     6 - 9 3 - 3 -4.7 -7.4 +2.8
  Jan 18, 2023 330   Presbyterian W 61-60 68%     7 - 9 4 - 3 -11.7 -18.2 +6.4
  Jan 21, 2023 188   @ UNC Asheville L 58-64 18%     7 - 10 4 - 4 -4.4 -14.4 +10.1
  Jan 25, 2023 192   @ Gardner-Webb L 66-78 18%     7 - 11 4 - 5 -10.5 +5.4 -17.3
  Jan 28, 2023 178   Radford L 52-55 31%     7 - 12 4 - 6 -6.0 -16.7 +10.5
  Feb 01, 2023 255   @ Campbell L 66-78 28%     7 - 13 4 - 7 -14.1 +0.7 -16.5
  Feb 04, 2023 188   UNC Asheville L 67-71 36%    
  Feb 08, 2023 280   Charleston Southern W 73-72 55%    
  Feb 11, 2023 244   @ Winthrop L 69-75 26%    
  Feb 15, 2023 181   Longwood L 65-70 33%    
  Feb 18, 2023 304   @ High Point L 73-76 38%    
  Feb 22, 2023 330   @ Presbyterian L 65-66 46%    
  Feb 25, 2023 192   Gardner-Webb L 62-66 36%    
Projected Record 10 - 17 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.1 1.6 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 4.3 0.8 0.0 7.1 5th
6th 0.2 4.4 9.9 2.8 0.1 17.4 6th
7th 0.4 7.4 16.1 5.5 0.3 29.6 7th
8th 0.7 8.6 16.4 5.9 0.3 31.9 8th
9th 2.8 6.3 2.2 0.1 11.4 9th
10th 0.6 0.2 0.7 10th
Total 4.1 15.4 26.1 26.6 17.6 7.9 2.0 0.2 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
10-8 2.0% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 1.9
9-9 7.9% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 7.8
8-10 17.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 17.4
7-11 26.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 26.4
6-12 26.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 26.0
5-13 15.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 15.4
4-14 4.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 16.0 0.7 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 0.9% 16.0 0.9
Lose Out 4.1% 0.2% 16.0 0.2