Northeast
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
157 Wagner 46.1%   16   2 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 7 14 - 4 +0.7      +1.2 129 -0.5 186 63.4 316 +19.0 10 0.0 1
229 Bryant 22.5%   2 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 14 12 - 6 -3.3      -0.3 183 -3.0 273 82.3 5 -5.2 248 0.0 1
236 Merrimack 0.0%   3 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 14 11 - 7 -3.8      -6.7 342 +2.9 90 62.0 334 -0.1 177 0.0 1
276 LIU Brooklyn 8.5%   1 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 16 10 - 8 -6.4      -4.2 288 -2.2 249 79.9 18 -11.8 323 0.0 1
289 Mount St. Mary's 6.9%   1 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 17 9 - 9 -7.2      -6.3 336 -1.0 210 61.4 341 -5.1 245 0.0 1
292 St. Francis (PA) 6.4%   0 - 3 0 - 0 11 - 17 9 - 9 -7.3      -1.7 223 -5.6 325 70.3 152 -12.5 327 0.0 1
312 Sacred Heart 5.1%   1 - 4 0 - 0 11 - 19 8 - 10 -8.3      -2.3 245 -6.0 332 68.2 214 -11.6 321 0.0 1
329 Fairleigh Dickinson 2.6%   0 - 4 0 - 0 8 - 20 7 - 11 -10.5      -3.8 282 -6.7 340 74.3 68 -8.5 296 0.0 1
332 St. Francis Brooklyn 1.8%   0 - 6 0 - 0 8 - 22 7 - 11 -11.1      -4.3 293 -6.8 342 71.3 122 -21.1 357 0.0 1
348 Central Connecticut St. 0.2%   1 - 5 0 - 0 7 - 24 5 - 13 -14.2      -6.2 335 -8.0 349 68.0 220 -11.5 318 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Wagner 2.0 56.5 18.8 10.6 5.4 4.1 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.2
Bryant 3.3 20.6 24.2 17.6 13.9 8.9 5.9 4.4 2.6 1.2 0.9
Merrimack 3.5 17.3 22.2 17.7 14.8 10.3 6.7 5.5 3.1 1.7 0.7
LIU Brooklyn 4.7 7.8 13.3 15.0 13.8 12.8 12.5 9.2 8.0 5.4 2.3
Mount St. Mary's 5.2 5.1 9.6 11.5 14.3 14.3 13.1 12.5 9.7 6.7 3.3
St. Francis (PA) 5.3 6.2 10.2 11.0 12.8 14.0 12.9 11.2 10.0 7.6 4.1
Sacred Heart 5.7 3.8 7.0 10.4 11.4 14.6 13.3 13.9 12.6 8.3 4.7
Fairleigh Dickinson 6.8 1.7 4.1 5.1 7.7 10.7 11.7 13.6 15.6 16.6 13.3
St. Francis Brooklyn 7.1 0.9 2.6 4.9 6.5 10.0 11.1 15.4 16.4 17.4 14.9
Central Connecticut St. 8.4 0.2 0.5 1.6 2.0 4.1 6.3 9.7 14.8 23.9 37.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Wagner 14 - 4 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.1 4.9 6.6 11.0 13.1 14.0 14.5 14.3 10.2 4.4
Bryant 12 - 6 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.6 1.9 3.8 6.5 8.1 10.9 13.7 14.9 12.7 11.6 7.4 3.8 2.0 0.4
Merrimack 11 - 7 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.7 2.6 4.4 7.1 9.6 13.3 14.1 13.9 11.1 9.9 6.3 3.7 1.2 0.3
LIU Brooklyn 10 - 8 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.6 4.3 7.2 9.7 11.1 12.8 12.9 12.0 9.7 7.7 4.7 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1
Mount St. Mary's 9 - 9 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.9 6.0 8.8 11.2 13.3 13.4 12.4 11.0 7.2 5.2 3.3 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
St. Francis (PA) 9 - 9 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.3 4.4 6.2 9.1 9.9 12.5 12.8 12.1 9.8 7.7 5.6 2.9 2.1 0.9 0.5 0.1
Sacred Heart 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.9 4.1 7.6 10.8 12.9 13.4 12.9 10.9 9.4 6.0 3.7 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.1
Fairleigh Dickinson 7 - 11 0.4 1.5 3.8 7.0 9.9 12.2 12.8 11.6 12.7 9.6 7.4 5.0 3.0 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.1
St. Francis Brooklyn 7 - 11 0.3 1.6 4.1 7.9 11.0 12.4 13.9 13.0 11.6 9.4 6.3 4.3 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.0
Central Connecticut St. 5 - 13 2.2 6.1 10.4 15.3 17.5 14.7 12.4 8.4 5.7 3.7 2.1 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Wagner 56.5% 45.5 8.9 1.6 0.4 0.0
Bryant 20.6% 12.9 6.0 1.4 0.3 0.0
Merrimack 17.3% 10.8 5.1 1.1 0.4
LIU Brooklyn 7.8% 4.3 2.4 0.8 0.2
Mount St. Mary's 5.1% 2.6 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
St. Francis (PA) 6.2% 4.0 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0
Sacred Heart 3.8% 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Fairleigh Dickinson 1.7% 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1
St. Francis Brooklyn 0.9% 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1
Central Connecticut St. 0.2% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Wagner 46.1% 46.1% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 3.4 7.5 13.0 14.3 7.3 53.9 0.0%
Bryant 22.5% 22.5% 0.0% 0.2 1.1 5.8 15.4 77.5 0.0%
Merrimack 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
LIU Brooklyn 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.9 7.5 91.5 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 6.9% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 6.1 93.2 0.0%
St. Francis (PA) 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.5 5.7 93.6 0.0%
Sacred Heart 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.2 4.9 94.9 0.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.1 2.5 97.4 0.0%
St. Francis Brooklyn 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 1.8 98.2 0.0%
Central Connecticut St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Wagner 46.1% 2.4% 44.8% 4.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bryant 22.5% 9.1% 17.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Merrimack 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
LIU Brooklyn 8.5% 5.2% 5.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 6.9% 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Francis (PA) 6.4% 4.5% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacred Heart 5.1% 4.1% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson 2.6% 2.2% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Francis Brooklyn 1.8% 1.7% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Connecticut St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 82.1% 0.8 17.9 82.1
2nd Round 4.6% 0.0 95.4 4.6
Sweet Sixteen 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0