Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
240 Central Connecticut St. 36.2%   16   4 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 10 12 - 4 -4.3      -5.0 311 +0.8 147 66.7 245 +2.6 128 0.0 1
300 Wagner 19.9%   2 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 11 10 - 6 -7.3      -8.2 357 +0.9 144 56.8 363 -1.2 186 0.0 1
334 Le Moyne 9.5%   2 - 7 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 8 -10.0      -5.8 329 -4.3 311 70.9 130 -8.5 304 0.0 1
336 Stonehill 9.1%   4 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 8 -10.2      -6.2 335 -3.9 302 66.7 246 -5.5 258 0.0 1
339 St. Francis (PA) 8.0%   2 - 6 0 - 0 10 - 16 8 - 8 -10.7      -5.5 323 -5.2 329 71.1 126 -5.1 251 0.0 1
341 Fairleigh Dickinson 6.5%   1 - 7 0 - 0 9 - 19 7 - 9 -11.3      -3.2 262 -8.2 359 78.5 17 -12.6 340 0.0 1
342 LIU Brooklyn 6.4%   2 - 7 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 9 -11.5      -6.9 349 -4.6 315 71.0 127 -9.0 311 0.0 1
359 Chicago St. 2.3%   0 - 10 0 - 0 6 - 25 6 - 10 -14.3      -9.1 361 -5.2 328 73.9 61 -15.0 351 0.0 1
361 Mercyhurst 2.2%   3 - 5 0 - 0 9 - 19 5 - 11 -14.7      -8.7 359 -6.0 344 61.5 346 -5.0 249 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Central Connecticut St. 2.0 53.8 21.0 10.7 6.2 3.8 2.3 1.4 0.7 0.3
Wagner 3.1 26.3 23.0 16.2 11.4 8.3 6.1 4.5 2.7 1.5
Le Moyne 4.4 10.3 14.7 15.6 14.9 12.7 11.3 9.2 7.1 4.3
Stonehill 4.4 9.9 14.1 15.5 14.9 13.3 11.4 9.3 7.0 4.6
St. Francis (PA) 4.7 8.0 12.0 13.9 14.3 13.6 12.4 11.1 8.9 5.8
Fairleigh Dickinson 5.1 6.4 10.2 12.5 13.2 13.4 13.4 12.4 10.6 8.0
LIU Brooklyn 5.1 5.7 9.7 12.6 13.4 13.9 13.6 12.5 10.6 8.0
Chicago St. 6.5 1.6 3.7 6.0 8.3 11.0 13.3 16.3 19.2 20.6
Mercyhurst 6.7 1.4 3.3 5.1 7.2 9.5 12.4 15.6 19.7 25.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Central Connecticut St. 12 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 3.0 5.1 8.0 11.6 15.5 16.8 16.0 12.3 7.0 2.3
Wagner 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.8 4.9 7.8 10.8 13.1 14.8 14.7 12.4 8.6 5.0 2.3 0.4
Le Moyne 8 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 4.1 7.4 10.5 12.8 14.8 14.5 12.9 9.3 5.8 3.1 1.3 0.3 0.1
Stonehill 8 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 4.6 7.1 10.5 13.4 15.1 14.4 12.6 8.9 5.5 3.3 1.1 0.4 0.0
St. Francis (PA) 8 - 8 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.6 5.6 9.0 11.9 14.2 14.5 13.9 10.9 7.6 4.5 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0
Fairleigh Dickinson 7 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.6 4.0 6.7 10.4 13.4 14.1 14.6 12.8 9.3 6.3 3.6 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
LIU Brooklyn 7 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.8 6.9 10.4 13.1 15.2 14.2 12.9 9.7 6.1 3.3 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
Chicago St. 6 - 10 0.4 2.1 5.4 9.8 13.5 15.8 15.8 13.4 10.3 6.7 3.8 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Mercyhurst 5 - 11 0.7 3.2 7.0 11.5 14.7 15.8 14.7 12.0 9.0 5.7 3.2 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Central Connecticut St. 53.8% 40.7 10.5 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
Wagner 26.3% 17.1 7.3 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Le Moyne 10.3% 5.6 3.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
Stonehill 9.9% 5.5 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
St. Francis (PA) 8.0% 4.4 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Fairleigh Dickinson 6.4% 3.3 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
LIU Brooklyn 5.7% 2.8 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Chicago St. 1.6% 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Mercyhurst 1.4% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Central Connecticut St. 36.2% 36.2% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.2 1.1 3.6 9.5 21.8 63.8 0.0%
Wagner 19.9% 19.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.3 16.7 80.1 0.0%
Le Moyne 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.3 90.5 0.0%
Stonehill 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 9.0 90.9 0.0%
St. Francis (PA) 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 7.9 92.0 0.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0 6.5 93.5 0.0%
LIU Brooklyn 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0 6.3 93.6 0.0%
Chicago St. 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 2.3 97.7 0.0%
Mercyhurst 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 2.2 97.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Central Connecticut St. 36.2% 13.5% 29.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wagner 19.9% 13.1% 12.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Le Moyne 9.5% 8.9% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stonehill 9.1% 8.4% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Francis (PA) 8.0% 7.4% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson 6.5% 6.3% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
LIU Brooklyn 6.4% 6.2% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chicago St. 2.3% 2.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercyhurst 2.2% 2.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 59.4% 0.6 40.6 59.4
2nd Round 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0