New Haven
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.9 #333
Expected Predictive Rating -9.0 #312
Pace 60.7 #356
Improvement +0.6 #160

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #350 D+ D- F+ F+ C-
Defense #263 D+ C C B- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #273 1.24 #88 -0.4 #192
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #123 0.66 #321 -0.2 #180
Three Pointers 42% #166 0.89 #329 -2.3 #263
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #262 -2.9 #261
Freethrows 0.23 #352 71% #240 0.16 #359
Second Chance 23.8% #340 0.94 #319 0.22 #346
Turnovers 20.3% #353
Total Offense -8.1 #350

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #116 1.23 #281 -3.0 #280
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #320 0.76 #191 +1.8 #54
Three Pointers 43% #103 1.07 #264 -2.5 #292
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #294 -3.7 #296
Freethrows 0.26 #55 75% #328 0.19 #87
Second Chance 29.2% #123 1.10 #267 0.32 #190
Turnovers 16.3% #183
Total Defense -2.8 #263

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.1% #260 1.7% #322
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.6% #254 5.4% #280
Possession Length 20.6 #363 16.9 #99
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #288 0.18 #214
Improvement +1.5 #106 -0.9 #246

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 3.6% 8.9% 1.2%
.500 or above in Conference 69.8% 87.3% 62.0%
Conference Champion 1.6% 3.8% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 0.5% 2.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mercyhurst (Away) - 30.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 30 - 40 - 7
Quad 410 - 910 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 10 @Connecticut L 55 - 79 0% -12  0 - 1 -1 -2 A- F B +0 B- C B
 Fri, Nov 7 170 Columbia L 53 - 71 25% -16  0 - 2 -22 -19 F D- F -4 F A+ A-
 Sat, Nov 8 110 Penn St. L 43 - 87 14% -18  0 - 3 -43 -27 F F F -22 C F F
 Mon, Nov 10 319 @Umass Lowell W 73 - 67 33% -1  1 - 3 -0 -1 C C- F +1 A+ F D
 Sat, Nov 15 357 Delaware St. W 65 - 52 73% +7  2 - 3 -4 -7 C- F+ F +4 B C D-
 Tue, Nov 18 53 @Seton Hall L 45 - 68 2% -14  2 - 4 -10 -11 D D C -2 F+ A C+
 Sat, Dec 6 132 @Boston College L 63 - 67 8% +3  2 - 5 +1 +4 C+ C- C- -4 F A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 10 339 @NJIT L 64 - 70 40% -4  2 - 6 -14 -7 F C B+ -7 F A D+
 Mon, Dec 22 195 @Fordham L 47 - 65 14% -5  2 - 7 -17 -18 D+ F F -1 D D- A+
 Mon, Dec 29 12 @Vanderbilt L 53 - 96 1% -24  2 - 8 -21 -9 D+ F+ C -13 F D+ C
 Fri, Jan 2 334 @Stonehill W 70 - 55 39% +5  3 - 8 1 - 0 +7 +2 B D+ C- +6 A- D+ D-
 Sun, Jan 4 296 @Central Connecticut St. L 61 - 72 28% -10  3 - 9 1 - 1 -16 -4 F+ A F -14 F D C-
 Thu, Jan 8 275 @Le Moyne L 47 - 73 24% -16  3 - 10 1 - 2 -29 -21 F F F -12 F+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 10 346 Fairleigh Dickinson W 65 - 55 65% +10  4 - 10 2 - 2 -5 -8 C D- D+ +4 A A- D
 Sat, Jan 17 324 Wagner W 80 - 74 58% +8  5 - 10 3 - 2 -7 +12 A+ F D+ -18 F F+ A+
 Mon, Jan 19 358 @Chicago St. W 62 - 56 54% -3  6 - 10 4 - 2 -6 -4 D+ C F -0 F+ A+ C+
 Fri, Jan 23 308 Mercyhurst L 57 - 61 52% +0  6 - 11 4 - 3 -16 -8 C+ F+ F -8 F+ B C-
 Thu, Jan 29 308 @Mercyhurst L 59 - 64 31%
 Sat, Jan 31 354 @St. Francis (PA) L 67 - 68 51%
 Thu, Feb 5 227 @LIU Brooklyn L 62 - 72 18%
 Sat, Feb 7 358 Chicago St. W 70 - 63 73%
 Thu, Feb 12 296 Central Connecticut St. L 66 - 67 50%
 Sat, Feb 14 227 LIU Brooklyn L 65 - 69 35%
 Thu, Feb 19 334 Stonehill W 63 - 60 61%
 Sat, Feb 21 346 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 65 - 67 43%
 Thu, Feb 26 324 @Wagner L 64 - 68 36%
 Sat, Feb 28 275 Le Moyne L 68 - 69 44%
Totals 10 - 17 8 - 9 -11 -8 D+ D- F+ -3 D+ C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.6 1st
2nd 0.6 2.3 1.6 0.2 4.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 5.6 4.0 0.5 11.3 3rd
4th 1.0 6.9 6.9 0.9 15.6 4th
5th 0.4 6.3 9.4 1.9 0.0 18.0 5th
6th 0.2 4.0 10.9 3.4 0.2 18.6 6th
7th 0.1 2.3 8.9 4.2 0.2 15.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 4.8 3.6 0.3 9.7 8th
9th 0.3 2.0 2.0 0.3 4.6 9th
10th 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
Total 0.5 3.2 9.3 17.3 22.6 21.0 15.1 7.5 2.9 0.6 0.1 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
13-3 72.7% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1
12-4 26.2% 0.8    0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-5 3.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.1% 0.1
13-3 0.6% 0.6
12-4 2.9% 2.9
11-5 7.5% 7.5
10-6 15.1% 15.1
9-7 21.0% 21.0
8-8 22.6% 22.6
7-9 17.3% 17.3
6-10 9.3% 9.3
5-11 3.2% 3.2
4-12 0.5% 0.5
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%