Stonehill
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.2 #337
Expected Predictive Rating -12.2 #338
Pace 65.2 #278
Improvement +1.8 #100

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #362 D- D F F+ C
Defense #186 C C+ F C+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #156 1.03 #322 -2.0 #256
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #207 0.70 #275 -1.1 #237
Three Pointers 41% #172 0.88 #331 -2.6 #272
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #331 -5.7 #334
Freethrows 0.23 #350 69% #295 0.16 #360
Second Chance 27.9% #252 0.90 #338 0.25 #314
Turnovers 20.9% #360
Total Offense -10.6 #362

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #26 1.12 #120 -2.7 #275
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #167 0.66 #38 +0.9 #123
Three Pointers 34% #340 1.11 #298 +1.7 #115
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #186 -0.2 #187
Freethrows 0.30 #173 68% #32 0.20 #125
Second Chance 26.0% #41 1.15 #308 0.30 #129
Turnovers 11.3% #364
Total Defense -0.6 #186

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.5% #158 0.8% #243
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -11.6% #343 -0.6% #171
Possession Length 18.8 #316 16.7 #69
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #282 0.18 #202
Improvement -0.8 #229 +2.6 #48

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.1% 8.5% 6.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.9% 2.7% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 82.5% 95.5% 77.8%
Conference Champion 1.6% 4.3% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four7.0% 8.0% 6.6%
First Round3.3% 4.5% 2.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Le Moyne (Away) - 26.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 20 - 6
Quad 411 - 1311 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 96 @DePaul L 64 - 72 4% -8  0 - 1 +1 -7 D C D- +9 A+ B+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 109 @Rhode Island L 57 - 80 6% -12  0 - 2 -16 -12 F C- F -4 C B- F+
 Fri, Nov 14 272 @Fairfield L 71 - 73 OT 22% -2  0 - 3 -5 -12 D- F C+ +7 A B+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 318 Loyola Maryland L 63 - 74 43% -3  0 - 4 -20 -11 C- F F -10 F C F
 Mon, Nov 17 6 @Iowa St. L 57 - 96 0% -18  0 - 5 -15 -4 B+ F F -11 D- A+ F+
 Fri, Nov 21 315 Lafayette W 74 - 70 55% +4  1 - 5 -8 -6 B- F F -3 B- B- C+
 Wed, Nov 26 321 Umass Lowell L 64 - 75 56% -5  1 - 6 -24 -13 F D- C -11 C C F
 Sun, Nov 30 177 @Quinnipiac L 62 - 76 12% -8  1 - 7 -12 -8 F A F -4 F A+ D+
 Tue, Dec 2 348 @Bryant L 65 - 77 43% -4  1 - 8 -21 -2 C- F+ D+ -21 F F F
 Wed, Dec 17 314 @New Hampshire L 58 - 59 32% -1  1 - 9 -7 -14 D- F+ F +7 A B F
 Mon, Dec 22 76 @Syracuse L 48 - 77 3% -12  1 - 10 -18 -13 F C+ F -9 D+ C+ F
 Fri, Jan 2 339 New Haven L 55 - 70 63% -5  1 - 11 0 - 1 -30 -19 F D+ D -11 F C- F
 Sun, Jan 4 329 @Wagner W 69 - 60 36% +2  2 - 11 1 - 1 +2 +2 C D C +1 B- C D+
 Thu, Jan 8 293 @Central Connecticut St. L 69 - 76 26% -6  2 - 12 1 - 2 -11 -3 C+ F F -9 D- F B+
 Sat, Jan 10 358 Chicago St. W 85 - 82 OT 74% +3  3 - 12 2 - 2 -15 -0 C B F+ -15 D- F F
 Sat, Jan 17 299 @Mercyhurst W 62 - 57 OT 27% -2  4 - 12 3 - 2 +0 -11 D- D F+ +11 B A+ D-
 Mon, Jan 19 353 @St. Francis (PA) L 61 - 63 49% +3  4 - 13 3 - 3 -13 -14 D- F F +1 A C- F
 Fri, Jan 23 211 LIU Brooklyn L 63 - 66 31% +3  4 - 14 3 - 4 -9 -7 C- C F -2 B+ A+ F
 Mon, Jan 26 293 Central Connecticut St. W 61 - 59 47% -3  5 - 14 4 - 4 -8 -14 D F F +6 D- B+ A-
 Thu, Jan 29 344 Fairleigh Dickinson W 58 - 57 64% +1  6 - 14 5 - 4 -14 -13 F C+ D+ -1 A F F
 Sat, Jan 31 284 @Le Moyne L 65 - 72 27%
 Thu, Feb 5 344 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 65 - 67 42%
 Sat, Feb 7 211 @LIU Brooklyn L 62 - 73 15%
 Thu, Feb 12 358 @Chicago St. W 67 - 66 54%
 Sat, Feb 14 329 Wagner W 67 - 65 57%
 Thu, Feb 19 339 @New Haven L 59 - 62 41%
 Sat, Feb 21 284 Le Moyne L 68 - 69 46%
 Thu, Feb 26 353 St. Francis (PA) W 71 - 65 70%
 Sat, Feb 28 299 Mercyhurst L 61 - 62 49%
Totals 10 - 19 9 - 9 -11 -11 D- D F -1 C C+ F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.6 1st
2nd 0.4 3.4 2.7 0.3 6.8 2nd
3rd 0.9 5.5 5.8 1.0 13.2 3rd
4th 0.6 6.8 10.5 2.3 0.0 20.2 4th
5th 0.3 6.9 12.6 3.4 0.2 23.3 5th
6th 0.1 3.9 10.1 4.1 0.2 18.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 5.9 2.9 0.3 10.2 7th
8th 0.3 2.3 2.4 0.2 5.2 8th
9th 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.8 4.2 12.4 20.6 24.6 20.1 11.8 4.5 0.8 0.1 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
13-3 57.2% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.0
12-4 17.7% 0.8    0.0 0.5 0.2 0.1
11-5 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.1% 46.2% 46.2% 16.0 0.1 0.1
13-3 0.8% 16.4% 16.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 0.7
12-4 4.5% 17.2% 17.2% 16.0 0.0 0.8 3.7
11-5 11.8% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 1.0 10.8
10-6 20.1% 10.0% 10.0% 16.0 2.0 18.1
9-7 24.6% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 1.5 23.1
8-8 20.6% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 1.0 19.5
7-9 12.4% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.4 12.0
6-10 4.2% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.1 4.1
5-11 0.8% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.8
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 7.1% 7.1% 0.0% 16.0 92.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%