St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -13.8 #354
Expected Predictive Rating -12.7 #341
Pace 71.7 #102
Improvement +5.0 #16

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #345 D+ D D+ F+ D
Defense #340 F+ D C+ C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #325 1.10 #257 -4.5 #327
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #73 0.66 #319 +0.9 #130
Three Pointers 41% #177 1.00 #213 -0.3 #192
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #295 -3.9 #293
Freethrows 0.22 #356 71% #226 0.16 #351
Second Chance 25.5% #316 0.97 #274 0.25 #321
Turnovers 18.0% #285
Total Offense -7.8 #345

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #135 1.34 #352 -4.7 #331
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #318 0.76 #184 +2.0 #46
Three Pointers 44% #89 1.17 #345 -4.9 #344
1st FG Attempt 1.17 #360 -7.7 #360
Freethrows 0.32 #238 72% #184 0.23 #231
Second Chance 33.4% #298 1.15 #305 0.38 #322
Turnovers 17.7% #96
Total Defense -6.0 #340

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.3% #315 1.5% #312
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.5% #273 13.6% #359
Possession Length 17.8 #222 16.1 #24
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #251 0.21 #306
Improvement +3.7 #23 +1.3 #101

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 3.2% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 32.3% 49.2% 19.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.3% 0.6% 10.4%
First Four2.7% 3.2% 2.4%
First Round1.0% 1.3% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Away) - 42.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 30 - 8
Quad 47 - 137 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 54 @Oklahoma L 66 - 102 1% -11  0 - 1 -23 -7 D D+ D- -14 F+ F B-
 Thu, Nov 6 45 @TCU L 63 - 104 1% -23  0 - 2 -26 -7 C F C -15 F F A-
 Tue, Nov 11 286 Mount St. Mary's L 66 - 74 36% -5  0 - 3 -18 -9 F F+ D -10 F B- B
 Tue, Nov 18 304 @Lehigh L 62 - 79 21% -9  0 - 4 -22 -15 F C F -7 F+ F B
 Mon, Nov 24 78 Belmont L 57 - 94 3% -16  0 - 5 -30 -15 F F F -13 F C- C
 Wed, Nov 26 113 Troy L 64 - 74 6% +2  0 - 6 -7 -11 C- F F +5 C+ C+ A+
 Mon, Dec 1 83 @Xavier L 74 - 96 2% -13  0 - 7 -12 -1 C- C D+ -9 C- D D+
 Sun, Dec 7 253 @Radford L 56 - 89 14% -17  0 - 8 -35 -20 F F D- -16 F+ F C
 Sun, Dec 14 147 @Temple L 67 - 95 6% -17  0 - 9 -24 -5 D+ C D -20 F A- C
 Wed, Dec 17 5 @Florida L 61 - 102 0% -25  0 - 10 -17 -2 C C C- -14 F F A
 Sat, Dec 20 203 Robert Morris L 70 - 79 22% -2  0 - 11 -15 -0 C- A- A+ -15 F A+ C
 Fri, Jan 2 275 Le Moyne L 58 - 84 33% -9  0 - 12 0 - 1 -35 -18 F F C -19 F F B
 Sun, Jan 4 346 Fairleigh Dickinson W 85 - 82 54% -0  1 - 12 1 - 1 -12 +2 D- A C+ -14 D- F+ F+
 Thu, Jan 8 324 @Wagner W 71 - 69 26% -1  2 - 12 2 - 1 -5 -1 C C- D- -3 C+ D B-
 Sat, Jan 10 227 @LIU Brooklyn L 63 - 67 12% -1  2 - 13 2 - 2 -5 -11 C- F D- +6 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 296 Central Connecticut St. L 90 - 98 38% -7  2 - 14 2 - 3 -19 +13 C B A- -31 F B F
 Mon, Jan 19 334 Stonehill W 63 - 61 51% -3  3 - 14 3 - 3 -12 -10 F C B- -2 F+ C A+
 Fri, Jan 23 358 Chicago St. W 81 - 60 65% +13  4 - 14 4 - 3 +3 +4 A+ F C- +1 C+ C B
 Thu, Jan 29 358 @Chicago St. L 73 - 75 42%
 Sat, Jan 31 333 New Haven W 68 - 67 49%
 Thu, Feb 5 308 @Mercyhurst L 64 - 72 22%
 Sat, Feb 7 275 @Le Moyne L 72 - 82 17%
 Thu, Feb 12 346 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 71 - 76 32%
 Thu, Feb 19 227 LIU Brooklyn L 71 - 78 26%
 Sat, Feb 21 324 Wagner L 73 - 74 47%
 Thu, Feb 26 334 @Stonehill L 65 - 71 30%
 Sat, Feb 28 296 @Central Connecticut St. L 69 - 78 20%
Totals 7 - 20 7 - 9 -14 -8 D+ D D+ -6 F+ D C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.5 0.0 2.7 3rd
4th 0.6 3.1 1.6 0.0 5.4 4th
5th 0.5 4.3 4.1 0.4 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.2 4.6 8.3 1.5 0.0 14.6 6th
7th 0.2 4.0 11.9 4.3 0.1 20.4 7th
8th 0.3 4.5 13.2 7.2 0.4 25.5 8th
9th 3.4 9.2 6.3 0.7 19.6 9th
10th 1.1 0.8 0.1 1.9 10th
Total 4.8 14.6 23.7 24.7 18.0 9.4 3.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-4 29.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 2.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.0% 0.0
12-4 0.2% 10.8% 10.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
11-5 0.9% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 0.1 0.8
10-6 3.8% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.2 3.5
9-7 9.4% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.5 8.9
8-8 18.0% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.7 17.3
7-9 24.7% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.6 24.1
6-10 23.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.4 23.3
5-11 14.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 14.4
4-12 4.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.7
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 16.0 97.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.6%