St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.9#349
Expected Predictive Rating-4.5#255
Pace67.9#218
Improvement+2.8#30

Offense
Total Offense-7.2#345
First Shot-8.2#352
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#123
Layup/Dunks-4.3#314
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#85
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#289
Freethrows-2.3#302
Improvement+0.9#100

Defense
Total Defense-5.7#336
First Shot-4.4#312
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#272
Layups/Dunks-5.9#331
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#88
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#224
Freethrows+1.0#127
Improvement+1.8#46
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 3.0% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 10.2% 28.1% 8.8%
.500 or above in Conference 33.0% 47.8% 31.8%
Conference Champion 2.5% 4.6% 2.3%
Last Place in Conference 20.5% 9.4% 21.3%
First Four1.1% 2.5% 1.0%
First Round0.4% 1.6% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iona (Away) - 7.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 30 - 20 - 6
Quad 49 - 1210 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 41   @ UCLA L 44-75 1%     0 - 1 -16.8 -16.2 -3.3
  Nov 09, 2023 69   @ San Francisco L 52-84 2%     0 - 2 -21.1 -12.8 -9.0
  Nov 11, 2023 135   @ Santa Clara L 59-82 6%     0 - 3 -17.9 -12.8 -5.2
  Nov 14, 2023 115   @ Penn St. L 53-83 5%     0 - 4 -23.6 -16.2 -8.1
  Nov 25, 2023 293   Niagara L 61-69 39%     0 - 5 -18.1 -9.6 -9.5
  Nov 29, 2023 295   @ Lehigh W 62-61 20%     1 - 5 -3.2 -12.4 +9.2
  Dec 02, 2023 279   @ American W 75-73 18%     2 - 5 -1.4 +3.7 -4.9
  Dec 10, 2023 168   @ Iona L 64-80 7%    
  Dec 15, 2023 265   Mount St. Mary's L 64-68 35%    
  Dec 20, 2023 299   Robert Morris L 68-70 41%    
  Dec 30, 2023 317   Campbell L 64-65 45%    
  Jan 04, 2024 292   @ Sacred Heart L 68-77 21%    
  Jan 06, 2024 291   @ Wagner L 57-66 21%    
  Jan 13, 2024 314   Central Connecticut St. L 68-69 45%    
  Jan 15, 2024 316   Fairleigh Dickinson L 74-75 44%    
  Jan 19, 2024 347   LIU Brooklyn W 75-72 60%    
  Jan 21, 2024 360   @ Le Moyne L 70-71 47%    
  Jan 25, 2024 292   Sacred Heart L 71-74 39%    
  Jan 27, 2024 259   Merrimack L 62-67 34%    
  Feb 01, 2024 314   @ Central Connecticut St. L 65-72 25%    
  Feb 03, 2024 347   @ LIU Brooklyn L 72-75 39%    
  Feb 10, 2024 358   Stonehill W 74-70 67%    
  Feb 15, 2024 291   Wagner L 60-63 41%    
  Feb 17, 2024 316   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 71-78 26%    
  Feb 22, 2024 259   @ Merrimack L 59-70 16%    
  Feb 24, 2024 358   @ Stonehill L 71-73 45%    
  Mar 02, 2024 360   Le Moyne W 73-68 68%    
Projected Record 10 - 17 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 2.1 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.2 2.8 0.9 0.1 7.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.5 4.1 0.9 0.0 10.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 5.6 5.3 1.3 0.0 13.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 6.5 6.2 1.3 0.1 15.7 6th
7th 0.2 2.4 6.8 5.7 1.3 0.0 16.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.2 6.0 4.8 1.3 16.0 8th
9th 0.2 1.5 3.2 4.2 2.7 0.6 0.0 12.4 9th
Total 0.2 1.5 4.0 7.6 11.2 13.8 14.8 14.0 12.0 9.2 6.2 3.4 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 93.9% 0.2    0.2 0.0
13-3 69.8% 0.4    0.3 0.1
12-4 55.7% 0.8    0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
11-5 23.7% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0
10-6 3.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0
15-1 0.0% 0.0
14-2 0.2% 44.9% 44.9% 16.0 0.1 0.1
13-3 0.6% 21.7% 21.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 0.4
12-4 1.5% 12.4% 12.4% 16.0 0.2 1.3
11-5 3.4% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.1 3.2
10-6 6.2% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.3 5.9
9-7 9.2% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 9.0
8-8 12.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 11.9
7-9 14.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.9
6-10 14.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.7
5-11 13.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.7
4-12 11.2% 11.2
3-13 7.6% 7.6
2-14 4.0% 4.0
1-15 1.5% 1.5
0-16 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.2 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%