St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.0#267
Expected Predictive Rating-6.1#257
Pace70.0#162
Improvement+1.5#69

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#197
First Shot-4.3#295
After Offensive Rebound+3.5#19
Layup/Dunks+0.4#152
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#190
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#321
Freethrows+0.9#121
Improvement+1.4#52

Defense
Total Defense-5.2#320
First Shot-6.8#340
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#81
Layups/Dunks+3.2#69
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#61
3 Pt Jumpshots-9.2#356
Freethrows-2.7#313
Improvement+0.1#165
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.1% 11.6% 7.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 40.1% 48.8% 24.2%
.500 or above in Conference 66.6% 71.2% 58.1%
Conference Champion 9.0% 10.4% 6.4%
Last Place in Conference 4.3% 3.7% 5.4%
First Four6.0% 6.3% 5.4%
First Round7.3% 8.5% 5.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bucknell (Home) - 64.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 31 - 31 - 7
Quad 412 - 813 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 262   @ George Washington L 72-75 37%     0 - 1 -5.6 -5.9 +0.6
  Nov 18, 2021 27   @ Virginia Tech L 55-85 3%     0 - 2 -13.8 -6.8 -8.1
  Nov 24, 2021 185   @ Cornell L 80-93 23%     0 - 3 -11.2 -0.2 -9.9
  Nov 28, 2021 313   @ Lehigh W 79-68 48%     1 - 3 +5.4 +6.4 -0.8
  Dec 01, 2021 291   Bucknell W 79-75 65%    
  Dec 04, 2021 76   @ Ohio L 68-84 6%    
  Dec 08, 2021 320   @ American L 73-74 50%    
  Dec 14, 2021 265   @ Hartford L 72-75 37%    
  Dec 18, 2021 30   @ Illinois L 65-86 3%    
  Dec 22, 2021 290   Robert Morris W 78-74 65%    
  Dec 29, 2021 156   Wagner L 69-73 37%    
  Dec 31, 2021 325   Fairleigh Dickinson W 82-75 74%    
  Jan 06, 2022 331   @ St. Francis Brooklyn W 76-74 57%    
  Jan 08, 2022 276   @ LIU Brooklyn L 75-78 41%    
  Jan 15, 2022 232   @ Merrimack L 61-67 31%    
  Jan 17, 2022 236   @ Bryant L 75-80 32%    
  Jan 21, 2022 348   Central Connecticut St. W 79-68 84%    
  Jan 23, 2022 309   Sacred Heart W 77-72 67%    
  Jan 27, 2022 156   @ Wagner L 66-76 21%    
  Jan 29, 2022 299   @ Mount St. Mary's L 65-67 45%    
  Feb 03, 2022 236   Bryant W 78-77 53%    
  Feb 05, 2022 232   Merrimack W 64-63 52%    
  Feb 10, 2022 325   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 79-78 54%    
  Feb 12, 2022 299   Mount St. Mary's W 68-64 66%    
  Feb 17, 2022 276   LIU Brooklyn W 78-75 61%    
  Feb 19, 2022 331   St. Francis Brooklyn W 79-71 76%    
  Feb 24, 2022 348   @ Central Connecticut St. W 76-71 67%    
  Feb 26, 2022 309   @ Sacred Heart L 74-75 48%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.6 1.9 2.5 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 9.0 1st
2nd 0.3 1.7 4.3 4.4 1.9 0.4 0.1 13.2 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.8 6.1 4.7 1.3 0.1 15.4 3rd
4th 0.3 3.1 6.3 4.3 0.7 0.0 14.6 4th
5th 0.3 2.3 5.9 4.0 0.6 0.0 13.2 5th
6th 0.2 2.6 4.5 3.3 0.3 11.0 6th
7th 0.4 2.0 3.5 2.4 0.3 8.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.2 2.0 0.4 0.0 7.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.8 1.3 0.2 5.0 9th
10th 0.3 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 2.4 10th
Total 0.3 0.5 1.4 2.0 4.0 6.8 8.6 9.8 12.9 13.8 12.8 10.4 7.6 4.5 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 91.0% 1.1    0.9 0.1
15-3 84.7% 2.4    1.8 0.5 0.0
14-4 55.1% 2.5    1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0
13-5 24.5% 1.9    0.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.6% 0.6    0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.0% 9.0 5.3 2.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 57.4% 57.4% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 56.5% 56.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
16-2 1.2% 43.8% 43.8% 15.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.7
15-3 2.8% 40.6% 40.6% 15.6 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.7
14-4 4.5% 31.4% 31.4% 15.7 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.1
13-5 7.6% 23.0% 23.0% 15.9 0.2 1.6 5.9
12-6 10.4% 19.0% 19.0% 16.0 0.1 1.9 8.4
11-7 12.8% 12.6% 12.6% 16.0 0.0 1.6 11.1
10-8 13.8% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 1.2 12.6
9-9 12.9% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 12.7
8-10 9.8% 9.8
7-11 8.6% 8.6
6-12 6.8% 6.8
5-13 4.0% 4.0
4-14 2.0% 2.0
3-15 1.4% 1.4
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18
Total 100% 10.1% 10.1% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.4 8.5 89.9 0.0%