St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.3#325
Expected Predictive Rating-10.8#332
Pace70.0#120
Improvement+0.2#165

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#268
First Shot-2.7#270
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#192
Layup/Dunks-3.8#320
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#93
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#185
Freethrows-0.6#228
Improvement+0.0#190

Defense
Total Defense-6.4#339
First Shot-4.7#318
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#323
Layups/Dunks-3.6#312
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#313
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#117
Freethrows-0.9#254
Improvement+0.2#157
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.3% 12.9% 8.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.4% 3.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 89.9% 96.7% 84.3%
Conference Champion 24.3% 36.9% 13.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four10.1% 12.7% 8.1%
First Round3.5% 4.7% 2.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stonehill (Away) - 45.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 410 - 1010 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 147   @ St. Bonaventure L 58-71 11%     0 - 1 -9.1 -5.5 -4.9
  Nov 12, 2022 360   Hartford W 77-53 84%     1 - 1 +4.3 -3.4 +8.2
  Nov 14, 2022 105   Cornell L 77-80 16%     1 - 2 -1.8 +0.6 -2.4
  Nov 17, 2022 86   @ Butler L 67-95 6%     1 - 3 -19.5 -1.0 -18.1
  Nov 21, 2022 258   Lehigh L 76-82 44%     1 - 4 -13.8 -9.6 -3.4
  Nov 26, 2022 236   American L 55-66 39%     1 - 5 -17.5 -16.2 -2.5
  Nov 30, 2022 295   @ Bucknell L 65-89 32%     1 - 6 -28.5 -11.0 -17.2
  Dec 03, 2022 29   @ Ohio St. L 59-96 2%     1 - 7 -21.6 -7.5 -15.3
  Dec 11, 2022 134   @ Hawaii L 66-90 10%     1 - 8 -19.4 -0.3 -19.8
  Dec 17, 2022 34   @ Miami (FL) L 76-91 2%     1 - 9 -0.2 +8.0 -8.3
  Dec 21, 2022 242   @ Robert Morris L 66-77 23%     1 - 10 -12.5 -2.3 -10.8
  Dec 29, 2022 329   Central Connecticut St. W 80-72 63%     2 - 10 1 - 0 -4.7 -1.7 -3.3
  Dec 31, 2022 340   Stonehill W 73-72 67%     3 - 10 2 - 0 -12.8 -3.1 -9.6
  Jan 07, 2023 284   @ Wagner W 68-63 30%     4 - 10 3 - 0 +1.1 -0.2 +1.6
  Jan 14, 2023 363   LIU Brooklyn W 87-68 86%     5 - 10 4 - 0 -2.0 +1.1 -4.1
  Jan 16, 2023 323   @ Sacred Heart L 51-54 39%     5 - 11 4 - 1 -9.4 -23.5 +14.0
  Jan 20, 2023 349   St. Francis Brooklyn W 87-61 71%     6 - 11 5 - 1 +10.9 +9.6 +1.7
  Jan 26, 2023 307   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 82-87 35%     6 - 12 5 - 2 -10.3 -1.8 -8.2
  Jan 28, 2023 329   @ Central Connecticut St. L 74-88 42%     6 - 13 5 - 3 -21.2 -0.5 -21.0
  Feb 02, 2023 340   @ Stonehill L 71-72 46%    
  Feb 04, 2023 337   @ Merrimack L 64-65 44%    
  Feb 09, 2023 323   Sacred Heart W 77-74 61%    
  Feb 11, 2023 337   Merrimack W 66-62 66%    
  Feb 16, 2023 349   @ St. Francis Brooklyn W 71-70 50%    
  Feb 18, 2023 363   @ LIU Brooklyn W 79-73 71%    
  Feb 23, 2023 307   Fairleigh Dickinson W 80-79 56%    
  Feb 25, 2023 284   Wagner W 67-66 51%    
Projected Record 10 - 17 9 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 5.1 11.0 6.7 1.4 24.3 1st
2nd 0.0 3.3 13.6 5.4 0.5 22.8 2nd
3rd 0.5 10.7 5.4 0.2 0.0 16.8 3rd
4th 0.0 4.1 8.3 0.3 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 7.9 1.7 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.2 3.7 3.5 0.0 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 2.8 0.2 4.1 7th
8th 0.2 0.8 0.3 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.3 2.2 7.6 16.2 24.1 24.4 16.6 7.2 1.4 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 100.0% 1.4    1.3 0.1
12-4 93.5% 6.7    5.2 1.5 0.0
11-5 65.9% 11.0    4.4 5.2 1.3 0.1
10-6 20.7% 5.1    0.2 1.5 2.1 1.1 0.2 0.0
9-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 24.3% 24.3 11.1 8.3 3.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 1.4% 36.1% 36.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5 0.9
12-4 7.2% 25.2% 25.2% 16.0 1.8 5.4
11-5 16.6% 16.7% 16.7% 16.0 2.8 13.8
10-6 24.4% 11.3% 11.3% 16.0 2.8 21.6
9-7 24.1% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 1.6 22.5
8-8 16.2% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.6 15.6
7-9 7.6% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.2 7.4
6-10 2.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.2
5-11 0.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 10.3% 10.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.3 89.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 36.1% 16.0 0.4 35.6
Lose Out 0.3% 0.8% 16.0 0.8