St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.8#358
Expected Predictive Rating-16.5#353
Pace73.7#85
Improvement+1.2#85

Offense
Total Offense-9.0#363
First Shot-6.1#340
After Offensive Rebound-2.9#334
Layup/Dunks-1.0#216
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#110
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#260
Freethrows-4.0#351
Improvement+0.1#185

Defense
Total Defense-4.8#332
First Shot-6.4#349
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#80
Layups/Dunks-4.9#333
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#31
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#301
Freethrows-0.4#218
Improvement+1.2#69
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 5.5% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.0% 5.3% 0.9%
.500 or above in Conference 20.8% 35.5% 20.6%
Conference Champion 0.6% 1.1% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 35.6% 20.2% 35.8%
First Four2.4% 5.3% 2.4%
First Round0.9% 2.2% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Xavier (Away) - 1.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 40 - 8
Quad 46 - 136 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 52 @Oklahoma L 66-102 1%     0 - 1 -22.9 -7.6 -13.3
  Thu, Nov 6 46 @TCU L 63-104 1%     0 - 2 -26.4 -6.5 -15.9
  Tue, Nov 11 297 Mount St. Mary's L 66-74 37%     0 - 3 -18.5 -10.5 -8.1
  Tue, Nov 18 296 @Lehigh L 62-79 19%     0 - 4 -21.5 -14.5 -6.2
  Mon, Nov 24 94 Belmont L 57-94 5%     0 - 5 -31.3 -13.3 -17.1
  Wed, Nov 26 135 Troy L 64-74 8%     0 - 6 -8.2 -10.2 +2.5
  Mon, Dec 1 79 @Xavier L 62-86 1%    
  Sun, Dec 7 271 @Radford L 73-84 16%    
  Sun, Dec 14 147 @Temple L 69-86 6%    
  Wed, Dec 17 17 @Florida L 60-94 0.1%   
  Sat, Dec 20 192 Robert Morris L 67-76 21%    
  Fri, Jan 2 328 Le Moyne L 75-77 44%    
  Sun, Jan 4 362 Fairleigh Dickinson W 78-74 63%    
  Thu, Jan 8 292 @Wagner L 66-76 20%    
  Sat, Jan 17 244 Central Connecticut St. L 66-72 29%    
  Mon, Jan 19 336 Stonehill L 70-71 49%    
  Fri, Jan 23 345 Chicago St. W 76-75 53%    
  Sun, Jan 25 344 @New Haven L 66-71 32%    
  Thu, Jan 29 345 @Chicago St. L 73-78 32%    
  Sat, Jan 31 344 New Haven W 69-68 52%    
  Thu, Feb 5 319 @Mercyhurst L 64-72 23%    
  Thu, Feb 12 362 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 75-77 42%    
  Thu, Feb 19 233 LIU Brooklyn L 70-77 28%    
  Sat, Feb 21 292 Wagner L 69-73 38%    
  Thu, Feb 26 336 @Stonehill L 67-73 29%    
  Sat, Feb 28 244 @Central Connecticut St. L 63-75 15%    
Projected Record 6 - 20 5 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 1.5 0.6 0.1 3.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 2.6 1.1 0.1 5.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 3.7 1.9 0.1 0.0 6.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 5.0 3.1 0.4 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.4 5.2 4.8 0.8 0.0 12.4 7th
8th 0.2 2.0 6.1 6.1 1.3 0.0 15.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.5 7.5 6.6 1.9 0.1 20.3 9th
10th 0.7 3.0 6.5 7.7 5.0 1.4 0.1 24.4 10th
Total 0.7 3.1 7.1 11.4 14.6 15.6 14.5 12.3 8.8 5.9 3.4 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 83.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-3 71.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
12-4 29.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-5 11.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-3 0.2% 20.5% 20.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-4 0.7% 17.3% 17.3% 16.0 0.1 0.5
11-5 1.7% 11.5% 11.5% 16.0 0.2 1.5
10-6 3.4% 9.5% 9.5% 16.0 0.3 3.1
9-7 5.9% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.3 5.6
8-8 8.8% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.4 8.5
7-9 12.3% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.3 12.0
6-10 14.5% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.3 14.3
5-11 15.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 15.4
4-12 14.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 14.4
3-13 11.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 11.3
2-14 7.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.1
1-15 3.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.1
0-16 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.5 97.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%