Wagner
Northeast
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.7#156
Expected Predictive Rating+18.9#10
Pace63.4#314
Improvement+0.0#174

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#132
First Shot+5.4#36
After Offensive Rebound-4.1#351
Layup/Dunks+6.0#22
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#80
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#243
Freethrows-0.1#188
Improvement+0.0#178

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#188
First Shot-3.8#288
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#23
Layups/Dunks+2.6#85
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#129
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#236
Freethrows-5.9#352
Improvement+0.0#182
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45.8% 55.3% 45.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 13.1 14.5
.500 or above 95.2% 99.7% 94.8%
.500 or above in Conference 95.9% 98.8% 95.7%
Conference Champion 56.1% 73.2% 54.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four3.0% 0.6% 3.2%
First Round44.4% 55.3% 43.6%
Second Round4.6% 9.7% 4.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.5% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.9% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Seton Hall (Away) - 7.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 01 - 2
Quad 31 - 23 - 4
Quad 416 - 419 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 265   Hartford W 77-59 81%     1 - 0 +9.3 +1.3 +8.6
  Nov 13, 2021 85   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 58-44 20%     2 - 0 +23.5 +6.5 +19.2
  Dec 01, 2021 28   @ Seton Hall L 61-76 7%    
  Dec 04, 2021 219   @ Stony Brook W 68-67 51%    
  Dec 08, 2021 67   @ Penn St. L 58-68 18%    
  Dec 20, 2021 356   Delaware St. W 84-61 98%    
  Dec 23, 2021 237   @ Fairfield W 66-65 56%    
  Dec 29, 2021 267   @ St. Francis (PA) W 73-69 63%    
  Dec 31, 2021 299   @ Mount St. Mary's W 65-60 68%    
  Jan 06, 2022 236   Bryant W 76-69 75%    
  Jan 08, 2022 309   Sacred Heart W 76-64 86%    
  Jan 15, 2022 331   St. Francis Brooklyn W 78-63 90%    
  Jan 17, 2022 325   Fairleigh Dickinson W 80-67 87%    
  Jan 21, 2022 276   @ LIU Brooklyn W 74-70 64%    
  Jan 23, 2022 232   @ Merrimack W 60-59 54%    
  Jan 27, 2022 267   St. Francis (PA) W 76-66 79%    
  Jan 29, 2022 331   @ St. Francis Brooklyn W 75-66 78%    
  Feb 03, 2022 348   @ Central Connecticut St. W 75-63 86%    
  Feb 05, 2022 276   LIU Brooklyn W 77-67 81%    
  Feb 10, 2022 299   Mount St. Mary's W 68-57 83%    
  Feb 12, 2022 232   Merrimack W 63-56 74%    
  Feb 17, 2022 309   @ Sacred Heart W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 19, 2022 348   Central Connecticut St. W 78-60 94%    
  Feb 24, 2022 325   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 77-70 74%    
  Feb 26, 2022 236   @ Bryant W 73-72 55%    
Projected Record 18 - 7 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Northeast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.3 5.3 10.2 13.6 12.9 9.1 3.5 56.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 4.4 7.0 4.8 1.5 0.3 19.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 3.4 3.9 1.7 0.1 0.0 10.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.4 2.1 0.4 0.1 5.9 4th
5th 0.4 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.3 2.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.1 3.3 5.4 7.1 10.1 14.0 15.1 15.2 13.2 9.1 3.5 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 3.5    3.5
17-1 100.0% 9.1    9.0 0.1
16-2 98.0% 12.9    12.0 0.9
15-3 89.9% 13.6    11.1 2.5 0.0
14-4 67.5% 10.2    6.0 3.7 0.5 0.1
13-5 37.7% 5.3    2.2 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
12-6 13.0% 1.3    0.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-7 2.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 56.1% 56.1 43.9 10.1 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 3.5% 76.3% 75.8% 0.6% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.8 2.4%
17-1 9.1% 67.5% 67.5% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.9 1.4 0.6 2.9
16-2 13.2% 62.8% 62.8% 13.8 0.5 2.7 3.5 1.5 0.1 4.9
15-3 15.2% 54.1% 54.1% 14.4 0.1 1.1 3.0 3.7 0.3 7.0
14-4 15.1% 50.7% 50.7% 14.8 0.0 0.6 1.8 4.1 1.2 7.4
13-5 14.0% 40.0% 40.0% 15.2 0.1 0.8 2.8 1.9 8.4
12-6 10.1% 36.2% 36.2% 15.6 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.3 6.4
11-7 7.1% 32.7% 32.7% 15.7 0.0 0.6 1.7 4.8
10-8 5.4% 17.7% 17.7% 16.0 0.0 0.9 4.4
9-9 3.3% 10.5% 10.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3 2.9
8-10 2.1% 2.1
7-11 1.1% 1.1
6-12 0.6% 0.6
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 45.8% 45.8% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.6 8.1 11.1 14.5 8.8 54.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 5.2 45.5 50.0 4.5