Wagner
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.1#293
Expected Predictive Rating-6.7#268
Pace69.0#194
Improvement-0.9#248

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#290
First Shot-6.6#347
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#52
Layup/Dunks-6.4#348
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#111
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#201
Freethrows-0.8#237
Improvement+0.0#179

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#261
First Shot-0.9#207
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#307
Layups/Dunks-0.2#184
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#123
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#124
Freethrows-3.1#343
Improvement-0.9#256
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.7% 22.6% 15.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.3 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 51.9% 64.8% 37.5%
.500 or above in Conference 86.0% 91.9% 79.5%
Conference Champion 28.1% 38.0% 17.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 0.9% 3.1%
First Four14.1% 15.4% 12.7%
First Round11.7% 14.5% 8.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Away) - 52.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 20 - 6
Quad 413 - 814 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 45 @Virginia Commonwealth L 74-103 4%     0 - 1 -14.9 +2.5 -15.1
  Fri, Nov 7 52 @Seton Hall L 61-68 4%     0 - 2 +6.1 +2.7 +2.8
  Tue, Nov 11 201 @Fordham L 61-63 23%     0 - 3 -1.4 -0.4 -1.3
  Sun, Nov 16 289 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 70-71 OT 37%     0 - 4 -4.7 -11.0 +6.3
  Sat, Nov 22 96 @Georgetown L 75-92 8%     0 - 5 -8.7 +0.8 -8.4
  Wed, Nov 26 319 @Manhattan W 103-101 OT 47%     1 - 5 -4.3 +14.5 -19.0
  Tue, Dec 2 92 @Maryland L 63-89 8%     1 - 6 -17.2 -8.9 -6.9
  Wed, Dec 17 346 Maryland Eastern Shore W 78-64 77%     2 - 6 -0.9 +5.2 -5.1
  Fri, Jan 2 335 @Chicago St. W 74-73 53%    
  Sun, Jan 4 336 Stonehill W 72-65 74%    
  Thu, Jan 8 361 St. Francis (PA) W 79-68 85%    
  Sat, Jan 10 317 Mercyhurst W 70-65 68%    
  Sat, Jan 17 334 @New Haven W 68-67 52%    
  Mon, Jan 19 357 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 78-73 66%    
  Fri, Jan 23 314 @Le Moyne L 77-78 45%    
  Sun, Jan 25 203 @LIU Brooklyn L 72-79 25%    
  Thu, Jan 29 277 Central Connecticut St. W 70-68 57%    
  Sat, Jan 31 357 Fairleigh Dickinson W 81-70 83%    
  Thu, Feb 5 314 Le Moyne W 80-75 66%    
  Sat, Feb 7 277 @Central Connecticut St. L 67-71 36%    
  Thu, Feb 12 203 LIU Brooklyn L 75-76 45%    
  Sat, Feb 14 336 @Stonehill W 69-68 52%    
  Thu, Feb 19 317 @Mercyhurst L 67-68 46%    
  Sat, Feb 21 361 @St. Francis (PA) W 76-71 68%    
  Thu, Feb 26 334 New Haven W 71-64 72%    
  Sat, Feb 28 335 Chicago St. W 77-70 72%    
Projected Record 13 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 4.6 7.4 6.7 4.6 2.3 27.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 6.3 6.8 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 19.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 5.9 5.4 1.8 0.2 0.0 14.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.7 4.5 1.0 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.5 3.5 4.0 0.7 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.6 0.9 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.4 0.9 0.0 4.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.6 0.7 0.1 3.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 3.6 5.9 9.0 11.2 13.2 13.9 13.2 10.9 7.6 4.7 2.3 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 99.7% 2.3    2.3 0.0
15-1 97.3% 4.6    4.3 0.4 0.0
14-2 88.8% 6.7    5.4 1.4 0.0
13-3 68.5% 7.4    4.4 2.7 0.3 0.0
12-4 34.8% 4.6    1.5 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.0
11-5 9.2% 1.3    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
10-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 27.1% 27.1 17.9 7.1 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 2.3% 50.6% 50.6% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 1.2
15-1 4.7% 40.6% 40.6% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.8
14-2 7.6% 35.6% 35.6% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.5 4.9
13-3 10.9% 29.4% 29.4% 16.0 0.1 3.1 7.7
12-4 13.2% 23.9% 23.9% 16.0 0.0 3.1 10.1
11-5 13.9% 18.1% 18.1% 16.0 0.0 2.5 11.4
10-6 13.2% 13.1% 13.1% 16.0 1.7 11.5
9-7 11.2% 9.9% 9.9% 16.0 1.1 10.0
8-8 9.0% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.6 8.4
7-9 5.9% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.3 5.6
6-10 3.6% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.2 3.4
5-11 2.1% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.1 2.0
4-12 0.9% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-13 0.4% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-14 0.1% 0.1
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 18.7% 18.7% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.3 17.3 81.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.1 3.7 14.8 44.4 37.0