Wagner
Northeast
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.6#284
Expected Predictive Rating-6.5#283
Pace61.7#333
Improvement-1.0#298

Offense
Total Offense-5.6#327
First Shot-5.7#333
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#169
Layup/Dunks-2.4#278
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#215
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#209
Freethrows-2.3#332
Improvement-1.1#325

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#209
First Shot-0.8#201
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#197
Layups/Dunks-1.5#246
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#47
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#47
Freethrows-4.5#361
Improvement+0.1#175
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 47.6% 53.7% 41.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 82.8% 93.3% 72.8%
.500 or above in Conference 82.8% 93.3% 72.8%
Conference Champion 14.8% 23.0% 6.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four38.8% 41.3% 36.5%
First Round24.0% 29.0% 19.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacred Heart (Away) - 48.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 01 - 1
Quad 30 - 21 - 3
Quad 413 - 814 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 98   @ Temple W 76-73 OT 10%     1 - 0 +10.6 +6.9 +3.6
  Nov 12, 2022 230   @ La Salle L 69-77 29%     1 - 1 -8.8 -6.1 -2.4
  Nov 18, 2022 232   Fairfield W 68-52 49%     2 - 1 +9.6 +4.4 +7.7
  Nov 20, 2022 41   @ Seton Hall L 44-82 4%     2 - 2 -24.5 -17.0 -9.3
  Nov 27, 2022 320   @ NJIT W 62-57 49%     3 - 2 -1.3 -2.6 +2.1
  Dec 03, 2022 237   @ Army L 64-75 30%     3 - 3 -12.1 -9.7 -2.7
  Dec 06, 2022 132   @ Fordham L 59-72 15%     3 - 4 -8.3 -7.4 -1.2
  Dec 15, 2022 313   Stony Brook W 58-55 66%     4 - 4 -7.9 -7.7 +0.5
  Dec 20, 2022 356   @ Delaware St. W 58-51 69%     5 - 4 -4.8 -14.2 +10.1
  Dec 29, 2022 363   @ LIU Brooklyn W 69-61 80%     6 - 4 1 - 0 -7.6 -7.9 +0.5
  Dec 31, 2022 337   Merrimack L 48-58 74%     6 - 5 1 - 1 -23.4 -19.1 -5.6
  Jan 05, 2023 340   @ Stonehill L 58-62 57%     6 - 6 1 - 2 -12.3 -14.3 +1.8
  Jan 07, 2023 325   St. Francis (PA) L 63-68 70%     6 - 7 1 - 3 -17.0 -13.5 -3.8
  Jan 16, 2023 337   @ Merrimack W 62-57 55%     7 - 7 2 - 3 -3.0 +0.8 -3.0
  Jan 20, 2023 329   Central Connecticut St. W 72-50 72%     8 - 7 3 - 3 +9.3 +2.6 +9.5
  Jan 22, 2023 323   Sacred Heart W 68-58 70%     9 - 7 4 - 3 -1.9 -2.8 +2.1
  Jan 26, 2023 349   St. Francis Brooklyn L 56-65 79%     9 - 8 4 - 4 -24.1 -14.7 -10.8
  Feb 02, 2023 323   @ Sacred Heart L 66-67 49%    
  Feb 04, 2023 307   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 70-71 44%    
  Feb 09, 2023 349   @ St. Francis Brooklyn W 64-61 61%    
  Feb 11, 2023 363   LIU Brooklyn W 74-60 92%    
  Feb 16, 2023 329   @ Central Connecticut St. W 62-61 51%    
  Feb 18, 2023 307   Fairleigh Dickinson W 73-69 66%    
  Feb 23, 2023 340   Stonehill W 67-60 75%    
  Feb 25, 2023 325   @ St. Francis (PA) L 66-67 49%    
Projected Record 14 - 11 9 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 4.5 7.8 2.4 14.8 1st
2nd 0.0 3.1 11.1 2.5 16.7 2nd
3rd 0.7 11.9 5.2 0.1 17.9 3rd
4th 0.1 5.8 9.8 0.5 16.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 10.9 1.8 0.0 14.1 5th
6th 0.3 5.7 4.3 0.0 10.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 4.3 0.3 6.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 2.0 0.6 3.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.1 0.9 4.2 12.1 21.9 26.7 21.3 10.4 2.4 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 100.0% 2.4    2.1 0.3 0.0
11-5 74.6% 7.8    3.1 3.7 1.0 0.1
10-6 21.1% 4.5    0.2 1.2 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0
9-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 14.8% 14.8 5.4 5.2 2.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 2.4% 77.9% 77.9% 15.6 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.5
11-5 10.4% 70.3% 70.3% 15.9 0.0 0.5 6.8 3.1
10-6 21.3% 60.7% 60.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3 12.6 8.4
9-7 26.7% 48.9% 48.9% 16.0 0.2 12.9 13.7
8-8 21.9% 37.6% 37.6% 16.0 0.0 8.2 13.7
7-9 12.1% 27.3% 27.3% 16.0 0.0 3.3 8.8
6-10 4.2% 18.5% 18.5% 16.0 0.8 3.5
5-11 0.9% 10.4% 10.4% 16.0 0.1 0.8
4-12 0.1% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 47.6% 47.6% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 1.6 45.9 52.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.4% 77.9% 15.6 1.8 25.1 50.9
Lose Out 0.1% 5.7% 16.0 5.7