Le Moyne
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.7 #296
Expected Predictive Rating -7.1 #279
Pace 70.9 #120
Improvement -0.2 #189

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #279 C D+ D C+ B-
Defense #283 C C- D+ C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #158 1.13 #212 -0.2 #181
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #273 0.70 #282 -2.1 #284
Three Pointers 45% #112 1.00 #215 +1.3 #130
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #203 -1.0 #203
Freethrows 0.33 #95 72% #208 0.24 #113
Second Chance 26.0% #305 1.04 #160 0.27 #271
Turnovers 19.5% #323
Total Offense -4.1 #279

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #166 1.07 #71 +1.4 #127
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #275 0.61 #9 +2.4 #22
Three Pointers 43% #106 1.13 #328 -3.6 #323
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #176 +0.2 #175
Freethrows 0.32 #232 74% #299 0.24 #260
Second Chance 32.9% #281 1.05 #219 0.35 #263
Turnovers 14.8% #308
Total Defense -3.6 #283

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #106 0.9% #247
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.2% #226 -1.2% #162
Possession Length 17.0 #144 16.8 #105
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #199 0.20 #277
Improvement -4.6 #353 +4.4 #14

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 63.4% 79.6% 47.2%
.500 or above in Conference 98.9% 99.9% 98.0%
Conference Champion 2.1% 3.5% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wagner (Away) - 49.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 41 - 7
Quad 414 - 815 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 85 @Xavier L 69 - 74 7% -4  0 - 1 +4 +2 A+ F F +2 C- A- B+
 Sun, Nov 9 147 @Bowling Green L 60 - 83 14% -6  0 - 2 -19 -10 D+ D+ F -9 C- A+ F
 Thu, Nov 13 175 @Massachusetts L 80 - 94 18% -11  0 - 3 -12 +1 D+ C- A -12 F D+ C-
 Mon, Nov 17 341 Niagara W 74 - 68 75% +4  1 - 3 -9 -2 B- F F+ -6 D C+ D
 Sat, Nov 22 271 Fairfield L 83 - 97 56% -12  1 - 4 -23 +4 D A+ F -27 F F+ F
 Fri, Nov 28 315 @Lafayette W 76 - 63 45% +1  2 - 4 +7 +2 D+ A+ D- +5 B+ C B
 Sat, Nov 29 213 Monmouth W 83 - 79 32% +1  3 - 4 +1 +13 A C+ C- -12 A- F F
 Sun, Nov 30 305 Ball St. L 85 - 96 53% -0  3 - 5 -19 +12 A+ F A -32 D F C
 Sat, Dec 6 361 @Binghamton W 78 - 63 70% +10  4 - 5 +2 +3 B D+ D -1 B C- F+
 Tue, Dec 16 30 @Texas L 53 - 95 2% -18  4 - 6 -24 -18 F C- D+ -4 C+ F+ B
 Sat, Dec 20 135 @St. Bonaventure L 81 - 92 13% -2  4 - 7 -6 +11 C- A B- -18 D- F+ F
 Sun, Dec 28 125 @Boston College L 64 - 72 12% -2  4 - 8 -3 -5 C D F +2 C- A C-
 Fri, Jan 2 358 @St. Francis (PA) W 84 - 58 64% +9  5 - 8 1 - 0 +14 +9 A- B+ D +6 B A D-
 Sun, Jan 4 301 @Mercyhurst L 60 - 74 40% -8  5 - 9 1 - 1 -19 -7 F C C -13 C- F D-
 Thu, Jan 8 334 New Haven W 73 - 47 73% +16  6 - 9 2 - 1 +12 +6 B C A- +10 A B- C+
 Sat, Jan 10 299 Central Connecticut St. L 59 - 69 63% -6  6 - 10 2 - 2 -21 -21 F D F +0 A- C- C
 Sat, Jan 17 356 @Chicago St. W 72 - 57 64% -0  7 - 10 3 - 2 +4 -5 D C C- +9 D+ A+ B+
 Mon, Jan 19 197 LIU Brooklyn W 83 - 77 41% +4  8 - 10 4 - 2 +1 +7 A+ F C- -6 A- F F+
 Fri, Jan 23 331 Wagner W 69 - 67 71% -2  9 - 10 5 - 2 -12 -1 F A- C+ -10 F B- C+
 Mon, Jan 26 340 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 87 - 74 54% +13  10 - 10 6 - 2 +4 +14 A+ F D+ -9 A+ F F
 Thu, Jan 29 197 @LIU Brooklyn L 61 - 83 21% -11  10 - 11 6 - 3 -21 -15 F F D -5 D+ B C-
 Sat, Jan 31 329 Stonehill L 54 - 65 71% -5  10 - 12 6 - 4 -24 -21 F F F -3 C+ A+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 331 @Wagner L 72 - 73 50%
 Sat, Feb 7 358 St. Francis (PA) W 81 - 71 82%
 Thu, Feb 12 301 Mercyhurst W 70 - 67 63%
 Sat, Feb 14 356 Chicago St. W 80 - 70 82%
 Thu, Feb 19 299 @Central Connecticut St. L 72 - 75 40%
 Sat, Feb 21 329 @Stonehill L 67 - 68 50%
 Thu, Feb 26 340 Fairleigh Dickinson W 77 - 70 75%
 Sat, Feb 28 334 @New Haven W 69 - 68 52%
Totals 15 - 15 11 - 7 -8 -4 C D+ D -4 C C- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.5 2.1 1st
2nd 0.0 2.8 15.4 20.6 9.2 2.1 50.0 2nd
3rd 0.7 8.8 10.8 1.8 0.0 22.1 3rd
4th 3.1 7.7 1.5 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.8 4.9 1.8 0.1 7.6 5th
6th 0.2 1.8 2.1 0.1 4.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.0 1.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.2 0.9 3.4 10.9 21.2 27.8 22.9 10.2 2.6 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 20.5% 0.5    0.2 0.4
13-3 9.7% 1.0    0.3 0.7 0.0
12-4 2.2% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 2.1% 2.1 0.5 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 2.6% 2.6
13-3 10.2% 10.2
12-4 22.9% 22.9
11-5 27.8% 27.8
10-6 21.2% 21.2
9-7 10.9% 10.9
8-8 3.4% 3.4
7-9 0.9% 0.9
6-10 0.2% 0.2
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.6%