Fairleigh Dickinson
Northeast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.0#326
Expected Predictive Rating-8.9#299
Pace74.3#68
Improvement+1.6#63

Offense
Total Offense-2.6#254
First Shot+0.4#167
After Offensive Rebound-3.0#334
Layup/Dunks-3.3#295
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#198
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#101
Freethrows+1.7#75
Improvement+1.4#53

Defense
Total Defense-7.4#344
First Shot-5.3#323
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#298
Layups/Dunks-3.4#280
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#170
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#56
Freethrows-5.7#352
Improvement+0.2#161
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 4.4% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 4.9% 11.5% 3.1%
.500 or above in Conference 30.1% 40.5% 27.3%
Conference Champion 1.7% 3.2% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 17.6% 11.6% 19.2%
First Four2.3% 3.3% 2.1%
First Round1.6% 3.0% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Manhattan (Away) - 21.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 10
Quad 48 - 108 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 28   @ Seton Hall L 49-93 2%     0 - 1 -28.2 -19.5 -4.7
  Nov 18, 2021 44   @ Northwestern L 46-82 3%     0 - 2 -23.0 -22.4 +0.7
  Nov 20, 2021 60   @ St. John's L 74-87 4%     0 - 3 -2.3 -0.1 -1.1
  Nov 24, 2021 253   @ NJIT L 54-62 22%     0 - 4 -10.0 -13.0 +2.6
  Nov 28, 2021 150   @ Princeton L 79-89 10%     0 - 5 -5.9 +4.9 -10.8
  Nov 30, 2021 250   @ Manhattan L 67-75 22%    
  Dec 07, 2021 242   @ La Salle L 70-79 20%    
  Dec 15, 2021 239   Fairfield L 71-74 39%    
  Dec 18, 2021 38   @ Virginia L 51-75 1%    
  Dec 22, 2021 198   St. Peter's L 69-74 32%    
  Dec 29, 2021 297   @ Mount St. Mary's L 65-71 30%    
  Dec 31, 2021 272   @ St. Francis (PA) L 75-82 27%    
  Jan 06, 2022 229   Merrimack L 64-68 36%    
  Jan 08, 2022 237   Bryant L 79-82 39%    
  Jan 15, 2022 311   @ Sacred Heart L 74-79 34%    
  Jan 17, 2022 154   @ Wagner L 66-80 11%    
  Jan 21, 2022 332   St. Francis Brooklyn W 80-76 64%    
  Jan 23, 2022 278   LIU Brooklyn L 79-80 47%    
  Jan 27, 2022 297   Mount St. Mary's W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 29, 2022 347   Central Connecticut St. W 79-72 73%    
  Feb 03, 2022 332   @ St. Francis Brooklyn L 77-79 43%    
  Feb 05, 2022 347   @ Central Connecticut St. W 76-75 54%    
  Feb 10, 2022 272   St. Francis (PA) L 78-79 47%    
  Feb 12, 2022 311   Sacred Heart W 77-76 54%    
  Feb 17, 2022 229   @ Merrimack L 61-71 19%    
  Feb 19, 2022 237   @ Bryant L 76-85 21%    
  Feb 24, 2022 154   Wagner L 69-77 25%    
  Feb 26, 2022 278   @ LIU Brooklyn L 76-83 28%    
Projected Record 8 - 20 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Northeast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 1.4 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 6.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 8.2 4th
5th 0.4 2.8 4.6 2.3 0.2 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.3 5.6 2.9 0.3 0.0 12.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 4.0 6.4 3.2 0.4 0.0 14.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.2 5.0 6.5 2.8 0.4 0.0 15.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 2.2 5.1 5.3 2.4 0.3 0.0 15.7 9th
10th 0.3 1.3 2.5 3.4 2.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 10.9 10th
Total 0.3 1.3 3.0 5.7 8.8 11.7 13.6 13.2 12.3 10.2 8.1 5.3 3.3 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 98.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 75.2% 0.2    0.2 0.1
14-4 56.8% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 26.7% 0.5    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 8.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 35.8% 35.8% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.3% 35.6% 35.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2
14-4 0.8% 20.6% 20.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7
13-5 1.9% 18.8% 18.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4 1.6
12-6 3.3% 13.0% 13.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4 2.9
11-7 5.3% 11.6% 11.6% 16.0 0.6 4.7
10-8 8.1% 7.9% 7.9% 16.0 0.6 7.4
9-9 10.2% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.3 9.9
8-10 12.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 12.2
7-11 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.2
6-12 13.6% 13.6
5-13 11.7% 11.7
4-14 8.8% 8.8
3-15 5.7% 5.7
2-16 3.0% 3.0
1-17 1.3% 1.3
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.7 97.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%