Chicago St.
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-18.1#355
Expected Predictive Rating-6.8#269
Pace72.9#89
Improvement-4.5#357

Offense
Total Offense-10.2#355
First Shot-7.8#346
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#308
Layup/Dunks-6.3#342
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#249
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#96
Freethrows-2.7#322
Improvement-3.1#352

Defense
Total Defense-8.0#348
First Shot-6.9#344
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#250
Layups/Dunks+3.1#71
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#216
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#335
Freethrows-4.1#345
Improvement-1.4#294
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 87.7% 81.2% 88.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Maryland (Away) - 9.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 30 - 100 - 16
Quad 44 - 114 - 27


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 329   St. Thomas W 77-72 34%     1 - 0 -8.9 -5.2 -3.4
  Nov 12, 2021 322   SIU Edwardsville W 67-56 28%     2 - 0 -1.2 -6.9 +6.4
  Nov 16, 2021 33   @ Loyola Chicago L 56-92 1%     2 - 1 -21.1 -10.2 -9.9
  Nov 20, 2021 118   @ UC Santa Barbara L 50-81 2%     2 - 2 -24.9 -19.3 -6.3
  Nov 22, 2021 187   @ Pacific L 58-74 4%     2 - 3 -14.2 -11.9 -2.6
  Nov 28, 2021 224   @ Bowling Green L 57-75 5%     2 - 4 -17.8 -22.3 +6.0
  Dec 01, 2021 287   @ Loyola Maryland L 62-76 10%    
  Dec 04, 2021 321   Tennessee St. L 72-78 29%    
  Dec 11, 2021 241   Illinois St. L 70-81 15%    
  Dec 13, 2021 312   Northern Illinois L 63-70 27%    
  Dec 16, 2021 336   @ IUPUI L 60-69 22%    
  Dec 19, 2021 58   @ Drake L 55-84 0.3%   
  Dec 21, 2021 59   @ Iowa St. L 57-86 0.3%   
  Dec 30, 2021 110   @ Grand Canyon L 55-80 1%    
  Jan 01, 2022 102   @ New Mexico St. L 59-84 1%    
  Jan 06, 2022 173   Seattle L 66-81 9%    
  Jan 08, 2022 217   California Baptist L 68-81 13%    
  Jan 13, 2022 286   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 69-83 10%    
  Jan 15, 2022 319   @ Lamar L 67-79 14%    
  Jan 27, 2022 152   Utah Valley L 62-78 8%    
  Jan 29, 2022 306   Dixie St. L 74-81 27%    
  Feb 02, 2022 143   @ Abilene Christian L 59-82 2%    
  Feb 05, 2022 155   @ Tarleton St. L 52-74 2%    
  Feb 10, 2022 158   Stephen F. Austin L 64-80 9%    
  Feb 12, 2022 218   Sam Houston St. L 63-76 13%    
  Feb 16, 2022 158   @ Stephen F. Austin L 61-83 3%    
  Feb 19, 2022 155   Tarleton St. L 55-71 8%    
  Feb 23, 2022 110   Grand Canyon L 58-77 5%    
  Feb 26, 2022 102   New Mexico St. L 62-81 5%    
  Mar 02, 2022 217   @ California Baptist L 65-84 5%    
  Mar 05, 2022 173   @ Seattle L 63-84 4%    
Projected Record 4 - 27 1 - 17





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.9 11th
12th 2.8 6.6 5.6 1.9 0.4 0.0 17.2 12th
13th 30.1 28.3 13.9 3.5 0.4 0.0 76.2 13th
Total 30.1 31.1 21.0 11.0 4.2 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 0.1% 0.1
7-11 0.3% 0.3
6-12 0.6% 0.6
5-13 1.5% 1.5
4-14 4.2% 4.2
3-15 11.0% 11.0
2-16 21.0% 21.0
1-17 31.1% 31.1
0-18 30.1% 30.1
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 13.9%