Chicago St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-14.3#359
Expected Predictive Rating-15.0#351
Pace73.9#61
Improvement-0.7#225

Offense
Total Offense-9.1#361
First Shot-7.3#347
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#278
Layup/Dunks-3.8#301
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#257
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#156
Freethrows-2.4#303
Improvement-0.7#238

Defense
Total Defense-5.2#328
First Shot-2.3#247
After Offensive Rebounds-2.9#337
Layups/Dunks-1.2#216
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#18
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#220
Freethrows-2.9#332
Improvement+0.0#176
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 4.6% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.5% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 23.9% 34.7% 23.4%
Conference Champion 1.6% 2.8% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 30.9% 21.6% 31.3%
First Four2.3% 4.6% 2.2%
First Round0.8% 1.4% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Saint Louis (Away) - 4.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 30 - 60 - 13
Quad 46 - 136 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 86   @ Loyola Chicago L 72-79 2%     0 - 1 +2.3 +1.0 +1.6
  Nov 09, 2024 229   Youngstown St. L 60-80 24%     0 - 2 -26.8 -14.6 -11.4
  Nov 12, 2024 34   @ Texas L 58-105 1%     0 - 3 -31.4 -11.5 -15.4
  Nov 16, 2024 64   @ San Francisco L 37-82 2%     0 - 4 -32.9 -30.4 -0.7
  Nov 19, 2024 207   Eastern Kentucky L 66-86 20%     0 - 5 -25.2 -16.6 -7.1
  Nov 22, 2024 191   @ Indiana St. L 61-97 8%     0 - 6 -34.3 -16.0 -16.9
  Nov 25, 2024 189   Radford L 48-63 12%     0 - 7 -16.3 -21.0 +2.9
  Nov 26, 2024 167   Drexel L 71-83 11%     0 - 8 -12.6 +2.7 -16.3
  Nov 30, 2024 35   @ Wisconsin L 53-74 1%     0 - 9 -5.5 -10.4 +3.7
  Dec 02, 2024 133   @ St. Thomas L 76-98 5%     0 - 10 -17.5 -5.1 -9.7
  Dec 08, 2024 137   @ Saint Louis L 68-87 4%    
  Dec 15, 2024 232   @ Mercer L 69-82 11%    
  Dec 19, 2024 100   @ Grand Canyon L 65-87 2%    
  Dec 21, 2024 155   @ Cal St. Northridge L 68-86 5%    
  Dec 29, 2024 14   @ Illinois L 60-93 0.1%   
  Jan 03, 2025 300   @ Wagner L 56-66 18%    
  Jan 05, 2025 342   @ LIU Brooklyn L 70-76 30%    
  Jan 12, 2025 336   Stonehill L 70-71 46%    
  Jan 18, 2025 334   Le Moyne L 72-73 45%    
  Jan 20, 2025 341   Fairleigh Dickinson W 81-80 50%    
  Jan 24, 2025 336   @ Stonehill L 67-74 26%    
  Jan 26, 2025 240   @ Central Connecticut St. L 62-75 12%    
  Feb 01, 2025 342   LIU Brooklyn W 73-72 51%    
  Feb 06, 2025 361   Mercyhurst W 69-66 63%    
  Feb 08, 2025 339   St. Francis (PA) L 73-74 48%    
  Feb 13, 2025 341   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 77-83 30%    
  Feb 15, 2025 334   @ Le Moyne L 69-76 26%    
  Feb 20, 2025 240   Central Connecticut St. L 65-72 27%    
  Feb 22, 2025 300   Wagner L 59-63 37%    
  Feb 27, 2025 361   @ Mercyhurst L 66-69 42%    
  Mar 01, 2025 339   @ St. Francis (PA) L 70-77 28%    
Projected Record 6 - 25 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 3.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 6.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 4.3 2.6 0.3 8.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 5.3 4.0 0.5 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 5.9 5.4 0.9 0.0 13.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 6.2 6.8 1.5 0.0 16.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.8 6.9 7.1 1.9 0.1 19.2 8th
9th 0.4 2.1 5.0 6.8 4.9 1.4 0.1 20.6 9th
Total 0.4 2.1 5.4 9.8 13.5 15.8 15.8 13.4 10.3 6.7 3.8 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
13-3 85.4% 0.2    0.2 0.1
12-4 57.9% 0.4    0.3 0.2 0.0
11-5 27.5% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-6 7.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.0% 0.0
14-2 0.1% 12.8% 12.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
13-3 0.3% 11.1% 11.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3
12-4 0.8% 11.5% 11.5% 16.0 0.1 0.7
11-5 1.9% 9.3% 9.3% 16.0 0.2 1.7
10-6 3.8% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 0.3 3.5
9-7 6.7% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.3 6.4
8-8 10.3% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.4 9.9
7-9 13.4% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.4 13.0
6-10 15.8% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.3 15.4
5-11 15.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 15.6
4-12 13.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.4
3-13 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.8
2-14 5.4% 5.4
1-15 2.1% 2.1
0-16 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 16.0 2.3 97.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%