Mercyhurst
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -7.5 291
Results Rating -9.1 312
Consistency 0.14 130
Pace 62.6 330
Improvement +0.4 176

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 300 D C- B- F F
Defense D+ 253 C- D+ C+ D- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 326 D 53% 305 -5.0 339
2 Pt. Jumpers 60% 15 B+ 44% 39 +7.5 2
Three Pointers 32% 339 F 28% 362 -7.4 356
Shot Selection/Accuracy F -2.2 358 D+ -2.7 272
1st FG Attempt D 0.92 331
Second Chance D+ 26.2% 296 C+ 1.07 118 C- 0.28 251
Opponents' Steals B- 8.6% 101
Other Turnovers C+ 6.8% 123
Turnovers B- 15.5% 102
Freethrows F 0.22 364 C 73% 180 F 0.16 361
Total Offense D+ -4.9 300

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots B- 53% 97 B 8.2% 41
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 36% 44 C+ 4.5% 150
Three Pointers C 85% 172 C- 1.1% 255
Total C- 54% 221 B- 4.6% 66


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 18 C 58% 191 +4.3 320
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 266 B 35% 65 -1.6 55
Three Pointers 37% 302 C- 35% 226 -1.7 114
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.8 329 C +0.1 186
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 210
Second Chance D+ 33.2% 294 C 1.05 212 D+ 0.35 275
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.2% 130
Other Turnovers C+ 7.6% 126
Turnovers C+ 17.8% 118
Freethrows F+ 0.38 347 C+ 72% 147 D- 0.27 342
Total Defense D+ -2.6 253

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 52% 268 C 11.0% 171
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F 44% 359 B+ 8.6% 34
Three Pointers C 83% 164 B+ 1.8% 40
Total D+ 60% 283 B 7.2% 59

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 20.3 364 15.9 10
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 322 0.19 256
Consistency 0.14 270 0.11 106
Improvement +2.9 58 -2.5 303

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 298 289 269
Results Rating Rank 326 312 256
Conference Record 10 - 6 10 - 6 10 - 6
Conference Finish 3 3 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15% 22% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 15% 22% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four15% 21% 0%
First Round7% 11% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 20 - 7
Quad 414 - 1014 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 66 @Northwestern L 47 - 70 5% -12  0% 0 - 1 D -11 F -21 F F B A +9 A+ F A
 Thu, Nov 6 280 @Loyola Chicago W 73 - 65 35% +7  78% 1 - 1 C+ +4 C- -1 C+ C F B+ +5 B A- B-
 Wed, Nov 12 340 @Canisius L 55 - 58 57% -3  16% 1 - 2 D- -12 F -15 F F+ D- B- +2 F+ A- B-
 Sat, Nov 15 349 Morgan St. W 86 - 72 80% +13  93% 2 - 2 C- -2 B- +4 C- A+ D+ D -6 A- F A
 Thu, Nov 20 87 @Miami (OH) L 71 - 76 7% -5  4% 2 - 3 C+ +4 B- +4 B C+ C- C+ +0 B C B-
 Sun, Nov 23 186 @Marshall L 60 - 69 21% -5  4% 2 - 4 D+ -8 F -12 F D C+ B- +3 D A C
 Sun, Nov 30 53 @West Virginia L 38 - 70 4% -18  0% 2 - 5 F -19 F -22 F C- F C- -2 B- F+ C+
 Fri, Dec 5 322 @Lafayette L 71 - 79 49% -2  19% 2 - 6 F+ -15 C +0 F A+ A F -16 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 108 @Davidson L 47 - 80 10% -17  0% 2 - 7 F -26 F -15 D F C+ F -17 F D+ D+
 Wed, Dec 17 75 @Syracuse L 62 - 76 6% -13  0% 2 - 8 C- -3 F -10 D C D A- +7 A- F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 357 Binghamton W 82 - 61 86% +19  97% 3 - 8 C+ +2 D+ -3 D+ D+ B- B +5 B- A+ B
 Fri, Jan 2 337 Fairleigh Dickinson L 67 - 74 76% +0  45% 3 - 9 0 - 1 F -22 F+ -10 F C- F+ F -13 F B A
 Sun, Jan 4 297 Le Moyne W 74 - 60 64% +8  86% 4 - 9 1 - 1 C+ +3 C +2 D+ A C B- +3 A+ F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 217 @LIU Brooklyn L 58 - 60 24% -4  29% 4 - 10 1 - 2 C- -2 D- -6 D- C+ B- B +4 B+ B+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 318 @Wagner W 70 - 69 47% -1  30% 5 - 10 2 - 2 D+ -6 D+ -3 C F A+ C- -3 D+ D C-
 Sat, Jan 17 335 Stonehill L 57 - 62 OT 76% +2  65% 5 - 11 2 - 3 F -20 F -20 F F C- C +0 C D+ B-
 Mon, Jan 19 305 Central Connecticut St. W 79 - 61 66% +14  96% 6 - 11 3 - 3 B- +6 B+ +7 A+ C- C C+ +1 A+ F C-
 Fri, Jan 23 326 @New Haven W 61 - 57 50% -0  37% 7 - 11 4 - 3 C- -4 D+ -3 C F+ C+ C+ +0 D- D+ A+
 Sun, Jan 25 351 Chicago St. W 61 - 59 81% +3  85% 8 - 11 5 - 3 D- -15 F+ -9 C- F D+ D -5 C+ C- F
 Thu, Jan 29 326 New Haven W 70 - 51 72% +13  88% 9 - 11 6 - 3 B- +5 C +1 F A+ A+ A- +7 A C+ D-
 Sat, Jan 31 351 @Chicago St. L 74 - 78 62% -2  27% 9 - 12 6 - 4 D- -15 D+ -2 C+ F A F -12 F F C-
 Thu, Feb 5 355 St. Francis (PA) W 98 - 89 OT 84% +3  70% 10 - 12 7 - 4 D -9 C+ +3 F A+ C+ F -13 F C+ C
 Sat, Feb 7 337 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 52 - 55 56% -0  46% 10 - 13 7 - 5 D- -12 F -13 F D A C +0 D+ C A
 Thu, Feb 12 297 @Le Moyne L 57 - 58 41% -1  37% 10 - 14 7 - 6 D+ -6 F -19 F F A+ A+ +13 B- A A+
 Sat, Feb 14 355 @St. Francis (PA) W 94 - 79 67% +9  89% 11 - 14 8 - 6 C+ +3 A +13 B+ A- A F -10 F B+ F
 Thu, Feb 19 318 Wagner L 80 - 83 OT 70% -4  19% 11 - 15 8 - 7 F+ -16 D- -7 D D B F+ -9 C- D- B
 Sat, Feb 21 217 LIU Brooklyn W 91 - 83 45% +2  51% 12 - 15 9 - 7 C+ +2 A+ +15 A- B A+ F -13 F A- D+
 Thu, Feb 26 305 @Central Connecticut St. L 78 - 80 43% -0  35% 12 - 16 9 - 8 D+ -8 C +1 C+ D B F+ -9 D- F F+
 Sat, Feb 28 335 @Stonehill W 75 - 72 OT 55% -4  16% 13 - 16 10 - 8 D+ -6 D -5 F F+ A C -1 B D- F
 Wed, Mar 4 337 Fairleigh Dickinson W 71 - 63 76%
Totals 14 - 16 10 - 8 -7 D+ -5 A D+ F D+ -3 F C F



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D B+ F D+ 33% 60% 32% F D D+ C+ C- B- F C F D+ C B C- C 46% 18% 37% D C- D+ C D+ C+ F+ C+ D-
1.02 53% 44% 28% -3 -2 0.92 26% 1.1 .28 15% .22 73% .16 1.12 58% 35% 35% 0 +1 1.04 33% 1.0 .35 18% .38 72% .16
Nov
3		 Northwestern F F A+ F F 30% 38% 32% F F F F F B D- A- D+ A A+ C+ A+ A+ 48% 17% 35% F+ A+ F F F A F B F
0.70 31% 50% 6% -17 -3 0.62 21% 0.6 .12 16% .23 77% .18 1.04 41% 38% 19% -16 +1 0.72 39% 1.5 .61 18% .68 71% .49
Nov
6		 Loyola Chicago C- D A+ C C+ 40% 22% 38% C C+ C+ D+ C F A C- A B+ C+ A+ B+ A- 45% 6% 49% D- B B A+ A- B- F F+ F
1.08 50% 60% 35% +2 0 1.07 31% 1.0 .31 18% .38 76% .29 0.96 55% 0% 29% -7 +2 0.92 27% 0.7 .19 21% .43 74% .32
Nov
12		 Canisius F F A+ F D- 17% 33% 50% F F F C- F+ D- F B- F B- D+ F A+ F+ 47% 21% 32% F+ F+ A- B+ A- B- F A+ F
0.89 50% 63% 21% -3 -3 0.90 21% 1.0 .21 18% .16 75% .12 0.94 56% 63% 25% 0 +1 1.03 19% 0.8 .15 21% .54 58% .31
Nov
15		 Morgan St. B- B+ F A B- 32% 28% 40% F C- B A+ A+ D+ A- F C D D A+ A+ A- 38% 43% 20% A A- F F+ F A F F F
1.27 69% 29% 40% +4 -1 1.08 41% 1.7 .69 16% .49 61% .30 1.06 60% 18% 25% -11 -3 0.75 51% 1.0 .51 24% .74 84% .62
Nov
20		 Miami (OH) B- A- A+ C- B+ 28% 28% 45% D- B C+ C C+ C- D D- D- C+ F A+ A B+ 42% 18% 40% C- B D A- C B- F F F
1.08 69% 54% 33% +7 -2 1.13 31% 0.9 .28 18% .24 69% .17 1.16 74% 25% 28% +1 +1 1.04 27% 1.0 .27 17% .57 84% .48
Nov
23		 Marshall F D+ C- F F 40% 34% 26% D F D+ D- D C+ D- F F B- B+ A+ F D 25% 18% 57% D+ D C A+ A C D- F F
0.95 55% 35% 15% -9 -2 0.80 32% 0.8 .27 16% .30 56% .17 1.09 55% 13% 48% +6 -1 1.14 30% 0.8 .24 17% .31 81% .25
Nov
30		 West Virginia F F F+ C- F 35% 37% 28% F F F A+ C- F F F F C- C+ F A+ B+ 54% 10% 35% F B- F C- F+ C+ F+ B- D
0.63 33% 25% 33% -14 -2 0.70 17% 1.3 .22 25% .18 13% .02 1.15 58% 60% 24% -4 +2 1.00 40% 1.1 .46 16% .39 65% .26
Dec
5		 Lafayette C D- C- F F 29% 43% 28% F F B+ A+ A+ A F C+ F F A- A F F 43% 9% 48% D- F F F F A+ D F F
1.11 53% 36% 25% -6 -4 0.83 37% 1.6 .61 9% .14 75% .10 1.24 47% 25% 57% +11 +2 1.27 36% 1.1 .40 24% .33 94% .31
Dec
13		 Davidson F A+ F F D+ 33% 38% 29% F D F C F C+ B- F F+ F F F F F 62% 10% 29% F F F A- D+ D+ D- C+ D
0.80 79% 19% 25% -4 -3 0.88 9% 1.0 .09 17% .33 44% .14 1.36 69% 50% 58% +18 +3 1.45 42% 0.9 .38 15% .34 65% .22
Dec
17		 Syracuse F B F+ F C- 34% 38% 28% F D C- C+ C D F D+ F A- B F A+ A 50% 18% 32% D A- F+ F F A+ B F C
0.87 61% 25% 27% -7 -3 0.83 30% 1.2 .35 21% .18 70% .12 1.07 56% 56% 25% -2 +1 1.00 38% 1.4 .53 22% .29 75% .22
Dec
20		 Binghamton D+ C A D+ C- 43% 31% 26% F+ D+ D- B- D+ B- F A+ F B D+ A+ B B+ 55% 20% 25% F B- A A+ A+ B F D+ F
1.18 60% 50% 33% +4 -1 1.09 26% 1.1 .29 10% .19 83% .16 0.88 59% 13% 30% -6 +1 0.93 11% 0.0 .00 23% .58 77% .45
Jan
2		 Fairleigh Dickinson F+ C+ A+ F F 35% 28% 37% D- F C- C C- F+ B A+ A+ F C F F F 59% 9% 32% F F D- A+ B A D- D- F+
1.05 63% 54% 18% -3 -1 0.93 26% 1.0 .26 19% .38 90% .35 1.16 58% 75% 50% +11 +3 1.30 36% 0.6 .23 23% .33 75% .24
Jan
4		 Le Moyne C F A+ C+ C- 38% 32% 30% F+ D+ A- A- A C B- A+ A- B- B C A+ A+ 46% 16% 38% D+ A+ F D F C- B+ A+ A
1.16 44% 47% 36% -2 -1 0.96 38% 1.2 .47 14% .35 84% .29 0.94 52% 38% 16% -13 +1 0.78 35% 1.1 .38 19% .27 57% .15
Jan
8		 LIU Brooklyn D- F A+ F D 45% 35% 20% F D- D- A+ C+ B- F F F B A C- C B+ 47% 33% 20% B B+ D A+ B+ D F D+ F
0.96 45% 53% 20% -5 -1 0.90 28% 1.3 .38 17% .14 57% .08 1.00 48% 40% 33% -4 -1 0.91 37% 0.7 .26 18% .39 68% .26
Jan
10		 Wagner D+ C- B+ B C+ 51% 22% 27% C- C F F F A+ C- A C+ C- A+ F F C 53% 8% 39% F D+ C+ F D C- D+ A+ B-
1.08 56% 45% 38% +2 +1 1.08 4% 0.0 .00 8% .35 81% .28 1.07 35% 50% 47% -4 +3 1.00 31% 1.3 .38 19% .30 56% .17
Jan
17		 Stonehill F C F+ F F+ 41% 43% 16% F F C F F C- F+ F F C D A+ A- C+ 53% 13% 33% F C B- F D+ B- F A+ F
0.82 57% 29% 22% -7 -3 0.82 28% 0.3 .09 13% .21 54% .12 0.89 58% 0% 27% -9 +2 0.89 25% 1.1 .28 21% .44 54% .24
Jan
19		 Central Connecticut St. B+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 37% 33% 29% F A+ C+ D- C- C F A+ F C+ B A+ A+ A+ 35% 25% 40% F+ A+ F D F C- D D+ D
1.28 53% 59% 60% +16 -2 1.31 33% 0.9 .30 13% .07 100% .07 0.99 53% 25% 21% -13 -1 0.75 38% 1.1 .40 16% .29 80% .23
Jan
23		 New Haven D+ D+ B+ B+ C 48% 24% 28% C- C F A+ F+ C+ F A+ F C+ F F+ A+ D- 44% 23% 33% D+ D- D C- D+ A+ F C+ F
1.04 55% 45% 38% +2 0 1.07 12% 1.7 .20 15% .14 100% .14 0.97 71% 44% 23% +1 0 1.05 24% 1.0 .24 24% .38 71% .27
Jan
25		 Chicago St. F+ A- C+ A B- 16% 34% 50% F C- F C F D+ F D- F D A A+ F C+ 25% 27% 48% D+ C+ C- D+ C- F B C+ B
1.06 71% 40% 41% +8 -3 1.11 24% 1.1 .28 21% .15 71% .11 1.02 42% 15% 39% -7 -2 0.85 29% 1.0 .29 10% .21 73% .15
Jan
29		 New Haven C F C C- F 35% 35% 29% F F C A+ A+ A+ C- A+ B- A- A- F A+ A 38% 31% 31% B+ A B- C- C+ D- F A+ F
1.15 28% 39% 33% -11 -2 0.76 27% 1.9 .51 7% .26 87% .23 0.84 50% 54% 8% -10 -1 0.79 18% 1.0 .18 15% .44 61% .27
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Chicago St. D+ A+ A- D B 37% 25% 37% F+ C+ D+ F F A F D- F F B+ B+ F F 29% 29% 42% D+ F F F+ F C- F A+ F
1.11 79% 46% 32% +8 -1 1.18 32% 0.5 .15 15% .25 71% .18 1.17 46% 31% 47% +3 -2 1.04 36% 1.1 .39 15% .53 63% .34
Feb
5		 St. Francis (PA) C+ F A+ F F 41% 22% 37% D F A+ A A+ C+ A+ A A+ F C+ D F F 44% 18% 39% F+ F D- A C+ C F C+ F+
1.27 45% 58% 25% -6 0 0.91 49% 1.4 .67 17% .47 80% .37 1.15 56% 40% 45% +6 +1 1.16 32% 0.8 .24 19% .35 68% .24
Feb
7		 Fairleigh Dickinson F C+ B F F 24% 39% 37% F F F+ C D A F C- F C F A+ A+ D+ 38% 15% 46% D- D+ F A C A D F F
0.96 64% 44% 24% -2 -3 0.91 20% 1.0 .20 11% .15 71% .10 1.01 80% 17% 22% -3 +1 0.97 39% 0.7 .29 24% .32 85% .27
Feb
12		 Le Moyne F F C- F F 23% 33% 44% F F F C+ F A+ F A F A+ F B A+ B- 51% 19% 30% D+ B- C- A+ A A+ D+ A+ B
0.83 46% 32% 20% -14 -3 0.68 19% 1.1 .21 9% .17 82% .14 0.84 71% 33% 14% -3 +1 0.98 26% 0.4 .11 26% .35 56% .20
Feb
14		 St. Francis (PA) A A+ A+ B+ A 38% 22% 40% D B+ C A+ A- A D- A+ C+ F D- B+ F F 55% 15% 30% F F A D+ B+ F F A F
1.37 79% 55% 40% +15 0 1.32 33% 1.5 .50 13% .30 89% .27 1.15 65% 29% 43% +7 +2 1.19 19% 1.0 .19 15% .56 61% .34
Feb
19		 Wagner D- F B+ B+ C- 33% 33% 33% F D C- F+ D B B F C- F+ A+ F F D 30% 36% 34% A+ C- D- C- D- B F F F
1.07 44% 44% 39% 0 -2 0.98 28% 0.9 .26 12% .41 63% .26 1.11 33% 50% 41% +1 -3 0.98 37% 1.1 .40 21% .51 80% .41
Feb
21		 LIU Brooklyn A+ F A+ C+ A+ 38% 30% 32% F A- C+ B+ B A+ C+ A+ B+ F F F C F 40% 29% 31% B F A- B A- D+ F+ F F
1.30 45% 81% 35% +9 -1 1.17 35% 1.2 .42 11% .34 81% .28 1.19 84% 50% 33% +14 -1 1.27 28% 0.9 .24 19% .35 80% .28
Feb
26		 Central Connecticut St. C C+ A+ F B 44% 29% 27% F C+ F B+ D B D B+ C- F+ D D+ F D- 43% 36% 21% C- D- B F F F+ F A- F
1.15 58% 63% 27% +4 -1 1.09 23% 1.1 .26 10% .23 86% .20 1.18 65% 41% 40% +6 -2 1.11 22% 2.0 .44 13% .47 71% .34
Feb
28		 Stonehill D F C- C- D- 27% 53% 20% F F C- F F+ A A- A- A C A+ A+ D B+ 44% 19% 37% D+ B C+ F D- F F A F
0.98 44% 34% 33% -6 -5 0.80 27% 0.8 .20 8% .35 76% .27 0.94 38% 20% 35% -12 +1 0.80 26% 1.3 .33 16% .43 61% .26



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 100.0% 15.2% 15.2% 16.0 0.0 15.2 84.8
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 15.2% 15.2% 0.0% 16.0 84.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 15.2% 100.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 23.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 29.5%
Lose Out 31.9%