Mercyhurst
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -8.7 #311
Expected Predictive Rating -9.1 #316
Pace 62.5 #337
Improvement -0.3 #206

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #329 F C- C F F
Defense #250 C D+ B- D+ F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #290 1.09 #260 -3.4 #297
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% #13 0.85 #67 +6.1 #6
Three Pointers 33% #331 0.76 #364 -8.5 #359
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #336 -5.8 #336
Freethrows 11.7 #359 75% #101 8.8 #360
Second Chance 25.0% #319 1.16 #56 0.29 #251
Turnovers 16.3% #163
Total Offense -6.4 #329

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #7 1.12 #136 -4.6 #322
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #274 0.67 #60 +2.0 #51
Three Pointers 35% #328 1.05 #239 +2.5 #91
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #181 -0.2 #180
Freethrows 17.9 #217 76% #324 13.7 #109
Second Chance 33.7% #291 1.04 #171 0.35 #260
Turnovers 18.1% #85
Total Defense -2.4 #250

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.7% #349 2.2% #347
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.9% #306 -1.8% #147
Possession Length 21.1 #365 15.3 #5
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 #358 0.23 #334
Improvement +0.3 #165 -0.6 #228

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 27.4% 34.1% 11.2%
.500 or above in Conference 79.2% 85.6% 63.7%
Conference Champion 2.5% 3.3% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 1.8% 6.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stonehill (Home) - 70.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 412 - 812 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 63 @Northwestern L 47 - 70 4% -12  0 - 1 -11 -20 F F B +8 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 6 261 @Loyola Chicago W 73 - 65 28% +7  1 - 1 +5 +0 C+ C- F +5 B+ A+ B+
 Wed, Nov 12 345 @Canisius L 55 - 58 50% -3  1 - 2 -12 -12 F F F +0 F A+ B+
 Sat, Nov 15 362 Morgan St. W 86 - 72 84% +13  2 - 2 -5 +6 D A+ C- -11 A+ F A-
 Thu, Nov 20 86 @Miami (OH) L 71 - 76 5% -5  2 - 3 +5 +7 B+ C+ D+ -2 A C C+
 Sun, Nov 23 177 @Marshall L 60 - 69 16% -5  2 - 4 -7 -6 F C C -2 D- A+ C
 Sun, Nov 30 57 @West Virginia L 38 - 70 4% -18  2 - 5 -20 -22 F D F -2 B- F B
 Fri, Dec 5 328 @Lafayette L 71 - 79 45% -2  2 - 6 -15 +2 F A+ A+ -18 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 134 @Davidson L 47 - 80 11% -17  2 - 7 -29 -14 D- F C- -21 F D- D+
 Wed, Dec 17 61 @Syracuse L 62 - 76 4% -13  2 - 8 -2 -6 C C- D- +4 A- F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 361 Binghamton W 82 - 61 82% +19  3 - 8 +3 +1 C- D- A- +2 C A+ B
 Fri, Jan 2 353 Fairleigh Dickinson L 67 - 74 76% +0  3 - 9 0 - 1 -23 -8 F C F -16 F C+ A+
 Sun, Jan 4 291 Le Moyne W 74 - 60 58% +8  4 - 9 1 - 1 +3 +2 D A- C+ +2 A+ D- D+
 Thu, Jan 8 211 @LIU Brooklyn L 58 - 60 21% -4  4 - 10 1 - 2 -2 -5 F C- C+ +3 A- A+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 317 @Wagner W 70 - 69 41% -1  5 - 10 2 - 2 -5 -1 C+ F A+ -5 C- C- C
 Sat, Jan 17 344 Stonehill W 67 - 61 71%
 Mon, Jan 19 259 Central Connecticut St. L 66 - 67 48%
 Fri, Jan 23 340 @New Haven L 61 - 62 48%
 Sun, Jan 25 354 Chicago St. W 73 - 66 75%
 Thu, Jan 29 340 New Haven W 64 - 59 70%
 Sat, Jan 31 354 @Chicago St. W 70 - 69 56%
 Thu, Feb 5 359 St. Francis (PA) W 73 - 64 81%
 Sat, Feb 7 353 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 69 - 68 55%
 Thu, Feb 12 291 @Le Moyne L 68 - 72 36%
 Thu, Feb 19 317 Wagner W 69 - 65 63%
 Sat, Feb 21 211 LIU Brooklyn L 68 - 71 40%
 Thu, Feb 26 259 @Central Connecticut St. L 63 - 69 28%
 Sat, Feb 28 344 @Stonehill L 64 - 65 50%
Totals 12 - 16 9 - 8 -9 -6 F C- C -2 C D+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.2 2.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.1 4.4 2.2 0.5 0.0 10.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 6.5 7.6 3.1 0.4 0.0 19.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 7.2 8.2 3.0 0.3 20.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 5.7 7.3 2.3 0.2 16.0 5th
6th 0.2 3.7 6.4 2.2 0.1 12.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 4.8 2.0 0.1 8.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.8 1.7 0.1 5.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.4 0.2 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.7 6.2 11.0 15.7 18.3 17.8 14.1 8.4 3.6 1.1 0.2 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 89.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1
14-2 52.6% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.0
13-3 27.4% 1.0    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-4 8.0% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-5 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.2% 0.2
14-2 1.1% 1.1
13-3 3.6% 3.6
12-4 8.4% 8.4
11-5 14.1% 14.1
10-6 17.8% 17.8
9-7 18.3% 18.3
8-8 15.7% 15.7
7-9 11.0% 11.0
6-10 6.2% 6.2
5-11 2.7% 2.7
4-12 0.8% 0.8
3-13 0.2% 0.2
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2%